Kansas vs Kansas St: The Right Play

[pokerwhiz90]

First off I want to apologize for getting the under wrong on the 44.5, if it wasn't for an interception returned for a td, the final total should have been under but teams do make mistakes.

As for this game, the right play is pretty easy.

Kansas st -3


Trends:
They are 4-0 ATS against Kansas
They are 4-1 ATS in their last BIG 12 opponents
They are 4-1 ATS after following a loss

Some things to note for, this will be a running game, but the score should still be above 40 regardless.
Kansas should still be able to score on their home field and I don't see another huge blowout game like last week. Both teams give up a little bit more than 25 ppg.

Strong Lean: Over 50

Lines opened at -3, and are now open at -3.5 or -4 at many sportsbooks with 83% of the squares backing the favorite. There is no reverse line moment and 68% of the public is set on the total hitting over 50.
That being said I like the over for 50, even though many people are saying Kansas cannot score, I think if this game is even within 1 td, it will definitely be over 50.

This should be one of the biggest plays of the week!

BEST OF LUCK

[RibbedTrojan]

I like Kansas here.

[pokerwhiz90]

lol you like everything opposite of me, i just go about facts and which team is playing who, thats why its the right play, not a lock or some personal opinion

[BigDofBA]

KSU is the play.

Kansas isn't any good and Snyder is the better coach. Don't out think yourself here. It's like people backing Marshall tonight.

I don't like putting my money on crap teams.

[AntDaAZN]

Leaning towards Kansas State as well, but I'm gonna do a lil more work on it. BOL!

[uanl]

KSU is the play.

Kansas isn't any good and Snyder is the better coach. Don't out think yourself here. It's like people backing Marshall tonight.

I don't like putting my money on crap teams.

KSU isnt exactly a top team ..they lean more towards crap teams as well, havent really done much ..

[Michigan]

kansas state for easy money

[pokerwhiz90]

i think i did a ton of homework on this game, i know like 20 trends, half of them aren't even trends, all i know is when they come off a loss they bounce back well, and there is no real home field advantage in this game - this is a very personal game and the better team usually wins, the scores are usually between 40-55, but when a defense is dominant the scores are usually lower and when the games are a lil bit closer like a touchdown game, the scores tend to go up

historically many turnovers many crazy upsets and crazy games between these 2, but the last 5 times ksu has been able to seal them ats which says a lot - kansas however has the weird ability to outperform a superior team at home occasionally ex: against georgia tech

[pokerwhiz90]

i think i did a ton of homework on this game, i know like 20 trends, half of them aren't even trends, all i know is when they come off a loss they bounce back well, and there is no real home field advantage in this game - this is a very personal game and the better team usually wins, the scores are usually between 40-55, but when a defense is dominant the scores are usually lower and when the games are a lil bit closer like a touchdown game, the scores tend to go up

historically many turnovers many crazy upsets and crazy games between these 2, but the last 5 times ksu has been able to seal them ats which says a lot - kansas however has the weird ability to outperform a superior team at home occasionally ex: against georgia tech

[udlock4life]

[masontnk]

Im sorry but i like kansas, rivalry game at home.

[Matthew7]

lol i see kst last week! No Defense, no Offense! is a no bet

Play big on WV Moneyline

[LT Profits]

This is one of the few times when I think a road favorite actually has value.

[LT Profits]

lol i see kst last week! No Defense, no Offense! is a no bet

Play big on WV Moneyline

That's just it this line is lower than it should be because whole world was Nebraska crush Kansas State in prime time last Thursday. You can't go by that game because Nebraska is one of the best teams in the country and could make any team look like shit.

Kansas State is much better than Kansas, Wildcats should have no problem rushing for over 200 yards in this game. Don't forget that Kansas lost at home to NORTH DAKOTA STATE, and their upset win over Georgia Tech was fluky because they allowed almost 300 rushing yards in that game.

[NYSportsGuy210]

I am LOVING Kansas St (-3) to cover along with Houston University @ Rice over 63.5 total points.

[swiss88]

I really like Kansas State as well
Good luck!

[goblue12]

All trends tend toward average.

[LT Profits]

Trends have nothing to do with liking State here, it's all about the added line value after awful performance in game where they never really had a chance

[Dabeergod]

On Kansas St. myself .... let's get this

[brewcrew2k]

I like KSU also, but they have not played on the road yet this year... How will they do....?

[Spartan14745]

Kansas St. backer here! Let's cash!

[Romanov]

Under at pinnacle is 49.5 but everywhere else its 50 or 50.5. Pinnacle wants people betting the over at their book, they are gods, therefore the game will go under. Correct?

[757sFinest]

don't know about gods but...nice line value after the beating they took last week. k state covers

[Dukebluejms]

Nice write up. KSU looks like the play, but its hard for me to bet against home teams on thursday night. Neither team is great, and the home field will be huge for KU. I'm leaning KU.

[I see the future]

The thing is even though this is a home game, In rivalry games you have to reserve more tickets for the visiting team. I like K state to win by at least 10 here.

[aufordboy]

BOL Everyone. I'm on KSU as well

[BigDofBA]

Ku doesn't really have a homefield advantage.

[Vortexx00]

KSU -2.5 for me tonight

[newjerseydevils]

i guess ksu it is then

[yellowman]

This should fuel the fire for you KSU backers....

Kansas is down to five offensive linemen with game experience after starting right guard Trevor Marrongelli (knee) had surgery.

I am a Husker fan, but follow all Big 12 teams closely. Neither team really has much, but I'll ride the better rushing team and that is undoubtedly KSU. If the GA Tech game didn't happen, this line would be about 8 or 9 in KSU's way...

[30K Millionaire]

I watched the Kansas / N Dakota St game, and Kansas looked pathetic! There's no way I would put money on them.

[ytulavida]

Ku doesn't really have a homefield advantage.

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The same is true on my end. No homefield advantage here.





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[kiln]

don't know about gods but...nice line value after the beating they took last week. k state covers

My thoughts 100% exactly. K State's defense was laughably bad against Nebraska and that's actually helping us KState backers tonight. But they out gained their first three opponents on the ground and then had to contend with two extremely one-dimensional running teams (UCF before Nebraska). On paper, KState is very obviously the play. Of course they don't play the games on paper, etc. etc. but I'm confident I'm on the right side.

[LV420]

Im on Kansas st big I'm might get some more at -2.5. Not sure on the over but good luck man.

[louis.ana]

on kansas State, capped them at -6