***Call it what you want, but I just absolutely LOVE this play (14-9 +$1,229.50)***
My football season thread has been mostly ignored, but I'm gonna give people a chance to get on this winner, making this play its own thread. If it gets ignored, oh well. I tried to help people. If 1 person cashes in, good, I'm glad I could help that person.
Here is my Football thread: http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...thread-p3.html
Here is my record in that thread:
NCAAF YTD: 18-14 +$473.50
DONK Plays: 8-4 +$739
NFL YTD: 11-10-1 +$248.50
DONK Plays: 6-5 +$490.50
OVERALL YTD: 29-24-1 +$722
DONK OVERALL: 14-9 +$1,229.50
(6-2 +$1,293 on plays of 3* or larger)
(2-0 +$800 on 4* Plays)
******************************
Okay, here we go.
Some people like to talk up their games, throw on flashy titles, call it a LOCK
, title it a GAME OF THE YEAR. You're not gonna get that from me. I'm simply gonna tell you a play that I am making my biggest play of the year, and hitting it hard, with confidence.
I started my thread after an incredible weekend I had, making nearly 10 units of profit, but that isn't included in the record.. Not going to hype myself up, I'm no hero, and either you'll like this play and get down on it, or you'll simply pass or fade. Do what you want. I'm confident in my big plays, though, and have had success with them so far, going 6-2 on plays over 3 units, showing 12.93 units of profit. I'm also confident because the team I am betting on is the team I know better than any other. In fact, I am currently a student at this school. Enough with the intro.. Here is the play I am pounding:
Iowa Hawkeyes ML
Now for the reasoning. Let me start by saying I know this team. I have bet on them 3 times this year. I am 2-1, but strongly feel I was on the right side of all 3 games. The two wins were against Iowa State, a 35-7 blowout, with that TD coming in garbage time, and the victory over Penn State, another blowout, with the Hawks easily handling the Nittany Lions 24-3. The loss was the only straight up loss of the season, at Arizona. If you watched the game, you would know the Hawks fell behind 24-7. Arizona's 3 touchdowns came after a blocked punt set up a short TD, on a tipped up ball that went for a pick 6, and on a kickoff return.. Even with the insane variance of these 3 plays biting the Hawkeyes hard, they came back to tie it up late in the 4th (and would have taken the lead if not for a missed XP). Yes, they ended up losing that game, but the perserverence the team showed is undeniable. Arizona only scored 13 offensive points, averaging just 2.1 yards per rush. I strongly feel that if that game was played 100 times, Iowa would win at least 70 of those matchups. Variance played its part and I paid my book, but games like that happen, it's what you sign up for gambling on sports, if you can't handle it, don't bet. If you wanna write the Hawkeyes off just because they lost that game, go ahead, that is your choice, but I think you are making a huge mistake. This team has been undervalued for 3 solid years, and no one wants to give them the full credit they deserve, but all I can say to that is "Thanks for value".
Enough about Arizona, let's talk about this week. I've been waiting for this game for weeks. I was really hoping Michigan would blow out, or at least beat MSU. We lost a lot of value with them getting exposed. I was hoping Iowa would be the first to do so. Oh well, even tho I think Iowa covers -3, I'm taking the moneyline, because all you have to do in real life is win. And that's what the Hawkeyes will do. I'm very confident, and people will say "If you're so confident, why not just lay the points?" Well, it works both ways, because I'm so confident they will win, I don't mind risking a little extra juice on the ML since you only pay that on a loss.
Okay, so when you think Michigan, you think Denard Robinson. Obviously. No denying his unreal start to the season, but now coming into conference play with a few games on film available, expect his numbers to drop significantly. Michigan State did a solid job with him and Notre Dame did fine as well. While they didn't shut him down, which you can't expect anyone to do, they were able to completely dominate him on certain plays. Notre Dame had a few instances where they had him swarmed in the backfield with nowhere to go but down. The key to stopping Denard is to prevent him from running vertically. When he hits a hole, he's got speed that's hard to match, and can make defenders miss. You gotta make him run laterally. While Iowa's 2nd level is solid, this game will be in the hands of the defensive line and linebackers. I may be a little bit biased on this topic, but I believe Iowa has the best defensive line in the country. A-Clay will be a top 10 pick next April, and he's not the only talent on that line. It is solid throughout. I go to Iowa and know Clayborn personally, along with some other players. I'm not gonna go to in detail with anything we've discussed for obvious reasons, and am not claiming I have "inside info" or anything like that, but I can tell that this defense is ready for Denard Robinson. I was very confident with the Penn State play as well, and they absolutely dominated. Back to Denard- Notre Dame ran a few plays where they intentionally sent the DE deep, baiting Shoelace to hit the hole, only to plug that hole with a LB. Plays like this have been very successful stopping Shoelace and are on film. Iowa had a bye week last week, and Kirk has these boys watching a lot of film.. A lot. Iowa is only surrendering 63 rush yards per game and 242 total yards per game. They are also opportunistic and can force key turnovers, a big intangible. They haven't faced anyone close to Denard's talent level, but they won't need to keep pace with those per game numbers to win this one. I expect Iowa to score and I am fully confident this team will be ready to handle Denard Robinson. I'm not expecting complete domination or embarrassment for Robinson, (although it's not out of the question
) but I know Denard will not put up numbers anywhere close to his season averages.
Defensively, Michigan is a mess. Not much analysis needed here. They're a joke. Film shows it, stats show it, they're just a joke. Their schedule has been easy, and will only get harder. Yet they are giving up 450 total yards per game. Are you kidding me? Iowa's rushing attack is very underrated, and although I have been skeptical of Stanzi throughout his Hawkeye career, he protects the ball and is very efficient with his passes. His deep ball has also improved quite a bit, and there will be holes in the middle and deep along with blown safety coverage this week. Expect a couple scores through the air for Stanzi, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a long one of at least 40 yards. I expect Iowa to score early and keep a lead. If Michigan gets some lucky TDs, Iowa will be able to match. That is why I am extra confident, I feel this is a low variance game. Obviously, no game is a for sure winner, I COULD EASILY LOSE THIS BET, but I feel the probability of a cash is very high. VERY high. No wonder why this will be my biggest bet of the year at this price. I don't ever predict scores and I don't expect to pin this one, but I'm thinking somewhere in the range of 33-17 Iowa. As stated in the first post of my season thread, I rate my plays 1 to 5 units, with an outside chance at ever going over 5. Well, this may be that chance. The money line isn't out yet, but it will be AT LEAST a 5* play for me. A DONK play that is! Hawkeyes to the bank this weekend for the biggest cash of the year!
Let's make Michigan our Bichigan!
Top Rated 5* DONK Play on:
IOWA HAWKEYES MONEYLINE
Good luck to anyone who plays Iowa. If you like the write up and the play, and ONLY if the Hawkeyes cash the ticket, points would be appreciated, but not neccesary. You can also check out my season thread as that will continue all year, and is showing a profit across the board in both NCAAF and NFL. I love this play and just want to help people out, so good luck and I hope some people cash this one with me!
Here is my Football thread: http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...thread-p3.html
Here is my record in that thread:
NCAAF YTD: 18-14 +$473.50
DONK Plays: 8-4 +$739
NFL YTD: 11-10-1 +$248.50
DONK Plays: 6-5 +$490.50
OVERALL YTD: 29-24-1 +$722
DONK OVERALL: 14-9 +$1,229.50
(6-2 +$1,293 on plays of 3* or larger)
(2-0 +$800 on 4* Plays)
******************************
Okay, here we go.
Some people like to talk up their games, throw on flashy titles, call it a LOCK
, title it a GAME OF THE YEAR. You're not gonna get that from me. I'm simply gonna tell you a play that I am making my biggest play of the year, and hitting it hard, with confidence.I started my thread after an incredible weekend I had, making nearly 10 units of profit, but that isn't included in the record.. Not going to hype myself up, I'm no hero, and either you'll like this play and get down on it, or you'll simply pass or fade. Do what you want. I'm confident in my big plays, though, and have had success with them so far, going 6-2 on plays over 3 units, showing 12.93 units of profit. I'm also confident because the team I am betting on is the team I know better than any other. In fact, I am currently a student at this school. Enough with the intro.. Here is the play I am pounding:
Iowa Hawkeyes ML
Now for the reasoning. Let me start by saying I know this team. I have bet on them 3 times this year. I am 2-1, but strongly feel I was on the right side of all 3 games. The two wins were against Iowa State, a 35-7 blowout, with that TD coming in garbage time, and the victory over Penn State, another blowout, with the Hawks easily handling the Nittany Lions 24-3. The loss was the only straight up loss of the season, at Arizona. If you watched the game, you would know the Hawks fell behind 24-7. Arizona's 3 touchdowns came after a blocked punt set up a short TD, on a tipped up ball that went for a pick 6, and on a kickoff return.. Even with the insane variance of these 3 plays biting the Hawkeyes hard, they came back to tie it up late in the 4th (and would have taken the lead if not for a missed XP). Yes, they ended up losing that game, but the perserverence the team showed is undeniable. Arizona only scored 13 offensive points, averaging just 2.1 yards per rush. I strongly feel that if that game was played 100 times, Iowa would win at least 70 of those matchups. Variance played its part and I paid my book, but games like that happen, it's what you sign up for gambling on sports, if you can't handle it, don't bet. If you wanna write the Hawkeyes off just because they lost that game, go ahead, that is your choice, but I think you are making a huge mistake. This team has been undervalued for 3 solid years, and no one wants to give them the full credit they deserve, but all I can say to that is "Thanks for value".
Enough about Arizona, let's talk about this week. I've been waiting for this game for weeks. I was really hoping Michigan would blow out, or at least beat MSU. We lost a lot of value with them getting exposed. I was hoping Iowa would be the first to do so. Oh well, even tho I think Iowa covers -3, I'm taking the moneyline, because all you have to do in real life is win. And that's what the Hawkeyes will do. I'm very confident, and people will say "If you're so confident, why not just lay the points?" Well, it works both ways, because I'm so confident they will win, I don't mind risking a little extra juice on the ML since you only pay that on a loss.
Okay, so when you think Michigan, you think Denard Robinson. Obviously. No denying his unreal start to the season, but now coming into conference play with a few games on film available, expect his numbers to drop significantly. Michigan State did a solid job with him and Notre Dame did fine as well. While they didn't shut him down, which you can't expect anyone to do, they were able to completely dominate him on certain plays. Notre Dame had a few instances where they had him swarmed in the backfield with nowhere to go but down. The key to stopping Denard is to prevent him from running vertically. When he hits a hole, he's got speed that's hard to match, and can make defenders miss. You gotta make him run laterally. While Iowa's 2nd level is solid, this game will be in the hands of the defensive line and linebackers. I may be a little bit biased on this topic, but I believe Iowa has the best defensive line in the country. A-Clay will be a top 10 pick next April, and he's not the only talent on that line. It is solid throughout. I go to Iowa and know Clayborn personally, along with some other players. I'm not gonna go to in detail with anything we've discussed for obvious reasons, and am not claiming I have "inside info" or anything like that, but I can tell that this defense is ready for Denard Robinson. I was very confident with the Penn State play as well, and they absolutely dominated. Back to Denard- Notre Dame ran a few plays where they intentionally sent the DE deep, baiting Shoelace to hit the hole, only to plug that hole with a LB. Plays like this have been very successful stopping Shoelace and are on film. Iowa had a bye week last week, and Kirk has these boys watching a lot of film.. A lot. Iowa is only surrendering 63 rush yards per game and 242 total yards per game. They are also opportunistic and can force key turnovers, a big intangible. They haven't faced anyone close to Denard's talent level, but they won't need to keep pace with those per game numbers to win this one. I expect Iowa to score and I am fully confident this team will be ready to handle Denard Robinson. I'm not expecting complete domination or embarrassment for Robinson, (although it's not out of the question
) but I know Denard will not put up numbers anywhere close to his season averages. Defensively, Michigan is a mess. Not much analysis needed here. They're a joke. Film shows it, stats show it, they're just a joke. Their schedule has been easy, and will only get harder. Yet they are giving up 450 total yards per game. Are you kidding me? Iowa's rushing attack is very underrated, and although I have been skeptical of Stanzi throughout his Hawkeye career, he protects the ball and is very efficient with his passes. His deep ball has also improved quite a bit, and there will be holes in the middle and deep along with blown safety coverage this week. Expect a couple scores through the air for Stanzi, and I wouldn't be shocked to see a long one of at least 40 yards. I expect Iowa to score early and keep a lead. If Michigan gets some lucky TDs, Iowa will be able to match. That is why I am extra confident, I feel this is a low variance game. Obviously, no game is a for sure winner, I COULD EASILY LOSE THIS BET, but I feel the probability of a cash is very high. VERY high. No wonder why this will be my biggest bet of the year at this price. I don't ever predict scores and I don't expect to pin this one, but I'm thinking somewhere in the range of 33-17 Iowa. As stated in the first post of my season thread, I rate my plays 1 to 5 units, with an outside chance at ever going over 5. Well, this may be that chance. The money line isn't out yet, but it will be AT LEAST a 5* play for me. A DONK play that is! Hawkeyes to the bank this weekend for the biggest cash of the year!
Let's make Michigan our Bichigan!
Top Rated 5* DONK Play on:
IOWA HAWKEYES MONEYLINE
Good luck to anyone who plays Iowa. If you like the write up and the play, and ONLY if the Hawkeyes cash the ticket, points would be appreciated, but not neccesary. You can also check out my season thread as that will continue all year, and is showing a profit across the board in both NCAAF and NFL. I love this play and just want to help people out, so good luck and I hope some people cash this one with me!
genious.