Somebody tell me WHY Washington is -2.5 vs Oregon St??

[PAYTON20]

Typo in the Thread Title: Meant Washington +2.5. Oregon St is the favorite here

The Washington Huskies have been getting way too much respect from Vegas this year. I am from Seattle and have gone to every UW home game this season, as well as the game @ USC that we won. The UW's defense is absolutely horrible, especially the pass defense. The offense is below average. Jake Locker is way overrated (can't pass accurately) and our receivers can't seem to keep their hands on the ball. Take a look at these lines that Vegas has basically given free money out on UW home games:

Nebraska -3.5 Final: Nebraska 56, Washington 21
Arizona St Pick Em Final: Arizona St 24, Washington 14
Oregon St -2.5

The only game they covered at home was Syracuse who is absolute garbage.
This Oregon St team is for real, they hung with TCU and Boise St on the road. BEAT Arizona St and then Arizona on the road. I just don't understand this line.
Oregon St and Ryan Katz will carve holes in this pass defense while Jacquizz Rodgers runs down their throats. UW's offense and pathetic play calling will have no chance to keep up.

Why is the line set at only -2.5?

[Snevens88]

washington is currently +1?

[PAYTON20]

washington is currently +1?

The line is now Pick em at 5dimes. Does Oregon St have an injury that I don't know about?

Yes Washington beat USC, but it was one lucky win. USC's defense is very bad this season, as witnessed in their first game vs Hawaii. USC just isn't THAT good this year...I can confidently say Oregon St is better. I don't get it

[PAYTON20]

James Rodgers is out for Oregon St. BUT he also missed most of the Boise St game, all of the ASU home win, and the 2nd half of the road win @ Arizona. I think Jacquizz Rodgers is the key here, not James. Oregon State still dominates on offense even without James Rodgers

[PAYTON20]

I am jumping on this now. I am sure this line will go up and Oregon State will be favored by at least a couple points

Oregon State Pk em (5x)

[WorkHorse]

Rather than a side play, my interest is in the total.

Neither team plays defense worth a dip. Washington is ranked 104th giving up 30.8 ppg and Oregon State is ranked 114th also giving up 30 ppg. This is out of 120 teams.

Both teams offense scores 25 plus points per game. Sounds like a damn track meet to me.

[PAYTON20]

Rather than a side play, my interest is in the total.

Neither team plays defense worth a dip. Washington is ranked 104th giving up 30.8 ppg and Oregon State is ranked 114th also giving up 30 ppg. This is out of 120 teams.

Both teams offense scores 25 plus points per game. Sounds like a damn track meet to me.

This is a good observation. The only problem I have with this is that the Washington offense really isn't that good. Their PPG average was inflated by scoring 41 against a terrible Syracuse team at home. Washington only managed 17 against BYU, 21 @ home vs Nebraska in a blowout loss, and then only 14 points at home vs Arizona St. Washington averages exactly 25 ppg, and that is a bit inflated.
Locker is the most overrated QB in a long time- not even close to heisman worthy. Don't get me wrong, he is a great athlete, but he is far from a great QB- he suffers from poor passing accuracy and bad decision making. Washington is far from having a good offensive line and good run game, and their WRs have had a lot of problems dropping balls. So I can't identify one strength this offense has going for them besides the mobility of Locker, but Coach Sarkisian has limited that by implementing his pass-first pro-style offense.

Good luck with whatever you decide, but don't be surprised if Washington only puts up 17-24 points in this game. This is one of the main reasons why I'm on Oregon State

[Uncle Harv]

I completely agree with everything you said, especially since Oregon St has owned the Rivalry in last 5 years. Locker is def overrated...something is fishy about this line. I thought I heard Quiz got dinged up at the end of their win last week, so maybe its his uncertain status thats messing with the line. But I do like the Beavers here if Quiz plays.

[stefan084]

i love this pick also but was cautious about the strange line

[PAYTON20]

I completely agree with everything you said, especially since Oregon St has owned the Rivalry in last 5 years. Locker is def overrated...something is fishy about this line. I thought I heard Quiz got dinged up at the end of their win last week, so maybe its his uncertain status thats messing with the line. But I do like the Beavers here if Quiz plays.

i love this pick also but was cautious about the strange line

I was very confused when I saw this line as well. I did some research before betting. James Rodgers the WR is definitely OUT for this game and the season. However, Quiz is fine and is going to play. Furthermore, Oregon St is deep at WR and I don't think losing James is too big of an issue. Wheaton will start in place of James Rodgers and he is a very good player who would be a starter for most Pac-10 teams.

What else could it be? Back to back road games for Oregon St? The feeling that UW HAS to win this game to save their season? The preseason heisman hype on Jake Locker? Baiting the public after UW won @ USC on ESPN2 two weeks ago?

Regardless, I decided not to over-think this one. I'm confident Oregon State takes it

[Uncle Harv]

Good research Payton20, but this could be another very strange situation just like Arizona/Iowa earlier this year. Iowa was favored by 3 all week and the public was 70% Iowa on this forum. But on Sat, the line swung to Zona -3 due to heavy sharp action on the Wildcats. Even ESPN was talking about how the "pros" thought Zona would win. And Zona won and covered. This Wash/Oregon St line started at -2.5 for Oregon St on 5 Dimes, went to -3, then dropped all the way to +1!! This despite the public consensus heavy on State! I love the Beavs here too, but something is weird here. Im gonna wait to see what happens to the line as the week goes on.

[PAYTON20]

No one else liking this? I'm the only one?

[Outhouse Tim]

Rodgers will be missed in the RUN game. Yes, James Rodgers when healthy ran the fly sweep 4-7 times a game. OSU basically has no one else to run that play and abandons it without him. You can run on Washington, so that aspect of deception will be missed.

[PAYTON20]

Rodgers will be missed in the RUN game. Yes, James Rodgers when healthy ran the fly sweep 4-7 times a game. OSU basically has no one else to run that play and abandons it without him. You can run on Washington, so that aspect of deception will be missed.

Thanks for the insight Tim. Are you an Oregon State fan? Do you still like Oregon State to win this game?

[crazykind]

Line is set right because if UW shows up they have at least a 50% chance of winning this one at home under the lights. Vegas gave them more respect last week after they beat USC on the road as 10 point dogs and showed that they were going to let Locker play rather than trying to make him into Sarkisian's version of an NFL pocket passer. Then they ran into a very underrated Sundevil team who outgained Oregon by over 100 yards (lost due to 7 turnovers) and came within a missed extra point of taking Wisconsin to OT on the road. The flu bug hit some of the Husky players in the days before the game, specifically their tackle Kohler who missed the game (his backup gave up 2 sacks and was called for 2 crucial holds) and the aforementioned Jake Locker, who complained of not being able to catch his breath all game. While the defense still had problems getting off the field, they did hold the devils to 24 which should have been enough to win had the offense played up to its potential. This loss makes this weekends game a near must-win for the Huskies if they have any shot of salvaging a winning record and bowl game. As we know, the hungrier team in college football often shows up to play, just like the desperate sundevils did last week. I dont think the huskies are as bad as they looked last week -- a couple dropped interceptions and the inability to execute on a rain-soaked night (especially on 3rd down) did them in.

Cappers often make the mistake of putting too much weight on a teams previous performances. While they do give useful info, they were played against different opponents with completely different matchups, and drawing concrete conclusions from them also assumes that the team is the same it was now as it was a month ago. Personally i think this game comes down to the 4th quarter and will be up for grabs in the end. Take the points if you can get them, and be careful betting against the hungry Dawgs.

[Intuitive_Edge]

Uw ml

[Husker36]

washington is currently +1?

Washington is a really tough place to play. I doubt Oregon State will be bringing 30,000+ fans like Nebraska did.

Locker was preseason Heisman leader and preseason #1 draft pick...... he obviously has talent.

I actually like Washington in this spot.

[PAYTON20]

Line is set right because if UW shows up they have at least a 50% chance of winning this one at home under the lights. Vegas gave them more respect last week after they beat USC on the road as 10 point dogs and showed that they were going to let Locker play rather than trying to make him into Sarkisian's version of an NFL pocket passer. Then they ran into a very underrated Sundevil team who outgained Oregon by over 100 yards (lost due to 7 turnovers) and came within a missed extra point of taking Wisconsin to OT on the road. The flu bug hit some of the Husky players in the days before the game, specifically their tackle Kohler who missed the game (his backup gave up 2 sacks and was called for 2 crucial holds) and the aforementioned Jake Locker, who complained of not being able to catch his breath all game. While the defense still had problems getting off the field, they did hold the devils to 24 which should have been enough to win had the offense played up to its potential. This loss makes this weekends game a near must-win for the Huskies if they have any shot of salvaging a winning record and bowl game. As we know, the hungrier team in college football often shows up to play, just like the desperate sundevils did last week. I dont think the huskies are as bad as they looked last week -- a couple dropped interceptions and the inability to execute on a rain-soaked night (especially on 3rd down) did them in.

Cappers often make the mistake of putting too much weight on a teams previous performances. While they do give useful info, they were played against different opponents with completely different matchups, and drawing concrete conclusions from them also assumes that the team is the same it was now as it was a month ago. Personally i think this game comes down to the 4th quarter and will be up for grabs in the end. Take the points if you can get them, and be careful betting against the hungry Dawgs.

Bro I am a UW Tyee club season ticket holder. I know every player on the UW team and all about Locker being "sick". It doesn't matter, Oregon State is the far superior team. If you wanna talk about MUST win games, then let's point to the ASU game last week when they blew their whole season. ASU won because they were desperate?

By the way Kohler is out again for this week with mono(leaving Greg Christine to start in his place again). It looks like Aguilar is also out. Looks like they'll have to rely on Jermaine "Dropsies" Kearse

Are you suggesting that Oregon State is not going to be hungry for a win here? They are competing to stay atop of the Pac-10 with an unbeaten conference record.

The Huskies practice and play in Seattle. They should be used to the rain. In fact, the rain should have been an advantage for UW especially playing against ASU- who is used to playing in the desert in 90 degree sunshine. Not to mention ASU's offense is pass-heavy, and the rain makes it tougher on the passing game. The rain is definitely not an excuse.

I appreciate your support for the Huskies, but I find a lot of flaws in your reasoning above.

[PAYTON20]

Washington is a really tough place to play. I doubt Oregon State will be bringing 30,000+ fans like Nebraska did.

Locker was preseason Heisman leader and preseason #1 draft pick...... he obviously has talent.

I actually like Washington in this spot.

Oregon State is 5-0 against Washington in their last 5 games.

Oregon State is also 4-1 in their last 5 games at Husky Stadium

I'm pretty sure it's safe to say that OSU has no problem playing at Husky Stadium

[tongo]

ON IT i'm a beaver myself and i completely agree with you

[Outhouse Tim]

Thanks for the insight Tim. Are you an Oregon State fan? Do you still like Oregon State to win this game?

I am actually a graduate of OSU from a long time ago. It's best to be objective when betting the games however, and I seldom play games (for or against) involving OSU unless my facts, figures and trends clearly support such a play. Therefore, I have had just one play involving them this year, a win plus the points at Boise with the line 6 points off my line.

I see this game as far too close to call. OSU will likely run big here, but the long gainer running wise is now gone with the fly sweep and Rodgers missing. OSU is better than people think of defense, but only average nevertheless. The have played vs. Dalton (TCU), Foles (Arizona) and Boise's excellent QB. Locker will be another stiff test on his home turf. This game can go either way.

Good luck!

[PAYTON20]

Locker has been limited in practice all week and did not participate in team drills on Wednesday

He's supposedly still sick and has a quad bruise that will limit his running ability

[crazykind]

I stand by my point that a healthy Jake Locker is essential to Husky success. Sarkisian cut him loose against USC and the offense thrived, then he couldnt breathe against ASU and it stalled. Hard to judge him before that since Sark was trying to make him something he is not, an NFL pro-style pocket passer.

I believe your homerism and disappointment with your team is tainting your perspective. Also don't understand how you can sit in the 'Tyee section' and claim to be a diehard fan yet bet big against your own team, but hey, its your life.

[PAYTON20]

I am a Tyee member and a huge Dawgs fan but I've learned you cannot let your home team bias affect your betting decisions. This is a play I'm confident in. It's a win/win situation for me, if the Dawgs win I'm happy...if the Beavs win, I win some nice cash.

You gotta good point about a healthy Locker, but he isn't 100% healthy this week. He still has a quad bruise that will limit his running and is still battling that illness. He will play but even Sark has admitted he is not 100%

[JMUplayer]

How about the simpliest answer..... at -2.5 half the money is on oregon st and half is on washington.

[crazykind]

BOL today Payton...thanks for this thought provoking thread

[vitalogist]

I'm a diehard lifelong Dawg fan as well, Payton. I think you're on the right side here, but I can't bear to bet against the Huskies. Good luck today!!!

[ninja33]

this will be oregon states third game on the road in the past four weeks. that's pretty significant. The past two weeks have been emotional wins, they've had to put a lot into them, and it's hard to keep that effort up week in week out. Washington is inconsistent as hell, but it has bounced back pretty well from losses. Oregon State is a better team, but theres a lot of factors working in washington's favor. I think the line is right where it should be. If I had to bet, I'd go with talent and the better team in Oregon State, but it's hard to gauge how much they'll miss Rodgers and how much these road games are adding up.

[vitalogist]

Thinking possible UNDER 61.

[PAYTON20]

BOL today Payton...thanks for this thought provoking thread

I'm a diehard lifelong Dawg fan as well, Payton. I think you're on the right side here, but I can't bear to bet against the Huskies. Good luck today!!!

this will be oregon states third game on the road in the past four weeks. that's pretty significant. The past two weeks have been emotional wins, they've had to put a lot into them, and it's hard to keep that effort up week in week out. Washington is inconsistent as hell, but it has bounced back pretty well from losses. Oregon State is a better team, but theres a lot of factors working in washington's favor. I think the line is right where it should be. If I had to bet, I'd go with talent and the better team in Oregon State, but it's hard to gauge how much they'll miss Rodgers and how much these road games are adding up.

Thanks for sharing your opinions, everyone contributed some good points to this thread.
Good luck guys

[crazykind]

Line is set right because if UW shows up they have at least a 50% chance of winning this one at home under the lights. Vegas gave them more respect last week after they beat USC on the road as 10 point dogs and showed that they were going to let Locker play rather than trying to make him into Sarkisian's version of an NFL pocket passer. Then they ran into a very underrated Sundevil team who outgained Oregon by over 100 yards (lost due to 7 turnovers) and came within a missed extra point of taking Wisconsin to OT on the road. The flu bug hit some of the Husky players in the days before the game, specifically their tackle Kohler who missed the game (his backup gave up 2 sacks and was called for 2 crucial holds) and the aforementioned Jake Locker, who complained of not being able to catch his breath all game. While the defense still had problems getting off the field, they did hold the devils to 24 which should have been enough to win had the offense played up to its potential. This loss makes this weekends game a near must-win for the Huskies if they have any shot of salvaging a winning record and bowl game. As we know, the hungrier team in college football often shows up to play, just like the desperate sundevils did last week. I dont think the huskies are as bad as they looked last week -- a couple dropped interceptions and the inability to execute on a rain-soaked night (especially on 3rd down) did them in.

Cappers often make the mistake of putting too much weight on a teams previous performances. While they do give useful info, they were played against different opponents with completely different matchups, and drawing concrete conclusions from them also assumes that the team is the same it was now as it was a month ago. Personally i think this game comes down to the 4th quarter and will be up for grabs in the end. Take the points if you can get them, and be careful betting against the hungry Dawgs.

Bottom line, what a game

[PAYTON20]

Bottom line, what a game

You nailed it crazykind. Good call. I was wrong. Unbelievable game Hopefully UW can get 3 more to get to that bowl game!

[White Rhino]

Bro I am a UW Tyee club season ticket holder. I know every player on the UW team and all about Locker being "sick". It doesn't matter, Oregon State is the far superior team. If you wanna talk about MUST win games, then let's point to the ASU game last week when they blew their whole season. ASU won because they were desperate?

By the way Kohler is out again for this week with mono(leaving Greg Christine to start in his place again). It looks like Aguilar is also out. Looks like they'll have to rely on Jermaine "Dropsies" Kearse

Are you suggesting that Oregon State is not going to be hungry for a win here? They are competing to stay atop of the Pac-10 with an unbeaten conference record.

The Huskies practice and play in Seattle. They should be used to the rain. In fact, the rain should have been an advantage for UW especially playing against ASU- who is used to playing in the desert in 90 degree sunshine. Not to mention ASU's offense is pass-heavy, and the rain makes it tougher on the passing game. The rain is definitely not an excuse.

I appreciate your support for the Huskies, but I find a lot of flaws in your reasoning above.

You should be ashamed of yourself. You don't deserve your season tickets and you should give them to a real fan

[PAYTON20]

You should be ashamed of yourself. You don't deserve your season tickets and you should give them to a real fan

Typical Seattle fan response. I was rooting for the Dawgs despite my money on the Beavs. I am a real fan trust me

[crazykind]

You nailed it crazykind. Good call. I was wrong. Unbelievable game Hopefully UW can get 3 more to get to that bowl game!

Classy response, glad you are a fellow Dawg fan...givin you 6 points in honor of the number of wins they need to go bowling