2 big dogs that might win Outright.

**Facepunch** · 09-28-10, 09:47 AM

Another shorter dog that will most likely win outright is

NC State at home against VaTech. Opened around +6 for NC State, but looks like it has been pounded, bringing it down to +3.5

**kurt_06518** · 09-28-10, 09:50 AM

oh man, you all are clueless. The reason everyone loses at gambling is because you bet the trends and jsut because pitt looked like shiit on national tv now everyone thinks fiu is going to coem in and beat them. do you think vegas is a bunch of idiots, they r a 20 point dog for a reason and everyone who bets this trend will lose too, pitt is a lock to cover

**Facepunch** · 09-28-10, 09:54 AM

So your advice is ignoring trends?

**kurt_06518** · 09-28-10, 09:58 AM

i always, always bet against the trends, another great against the trend bet is notre dame -2.5. Everyone is going to say how much they suck and they cant be favorites, well think about it, for a team that has lost as much as they have and they are a favorite, that should tell u something. Now im not touching pitt game, but i will be betting notre dame

**thomas6512** · 09-28-10, 09:58 AM

the two of you know nothing

**Terrapin Station** · 09-28-10, 09:59 AM

I like Florida Int'l a lot. Don't think they'll win outright, but I don't think they'll get blown away either.

**Facepunch** · 09-28-10, 10:00 AM

Originally posted by thomas6512

the two of you know nothing

Please elaborate.

**kurt_06518** · 09-28-10, 10:01 AM

if pitt was the thur night game i would def lay the points however since they r on saturday, there r much better plays which is why i am staying away cause at teh end of teh day, nothing is guaranteed and u jsut dont know and i follow my gut and my instinct tells me to stay away. Can fiu cover? sure i can def see them covering but i would not be surprised either to see pitt come out and look like the colts and to take the money line on fiu is so rediculous. Last game that was just like this was vtech giving 20 to east carolina, east carolina was putitng up a lot of points and vtech has looked awful and everyone bet the trend which was taking teh points, even pople took ecu money line, well u saw what happened

**Facepunch** · 09-28-10, 10:08 AM

Pitt and LSU have hung their hats on defense, they do not have high offensive production averaging 21.7 and 26.3 points respectively. They are coming out as 2 and 3 touchdown favorites, even at their best this would be a feat. Florida international is a sleeper that has hung with much bigger named teams. Case in point is the Texas A&M game where they were a 28.5 dog, and lost by a single touchdown in one of the hardest environments ,Texas. To say that LSU is not in a state of flux because of their problems on offense is laughable.

Feel good about both of these picks, Probably wont win outright, but they will cover, and I would not be surprised to see a straight up win from at least one of these teams.

**Facepunch** · 09-28-10, 10:09 AM

Originally posted by kurt_06518

if pitt was the thur night game i would def lay the points however since they r on saturday, there r much better plays which is why i am staying away cause at teh end of teh day, nothing is guaranteed and u jsut dont know and i follow my gut and my instinct tells me to stay away. Can fiu cover? sure i can def see them covering but i would not be surprised either to see pitt come out and look like the colts and to take the money line on fiu is so rediculous. Last game that was just like this was vtech giving 20 to east carolina, east carolina was putitng up a lot of points and vtech has looked awful and everyone bet the trend which was taking teh points, even pople took ecu money line, well u saw what happened

So you are saying you favor the trend of them doing well on Sat.

**kurt_06518** · 09-28-10, 10:09 AM

again the trends tell u to bet teh farm on fiu, games like that make me very nervous and i usually stay away, good luck to u

**kurt_06518** · 09-28-10, 10:11 AM

no, i do not, i am staying away but if i was forced to bet it would be pitt, there r much more attractive games on the oard so i am staying away but i ahd to comment cause everyone thinks this is a lock for fiu because pitt looked so bad, when that happens, u have to take a step back and understand why everyone thinks it is a lock, those games usually dont work out well

**Mac9** · 09-28-10, 10:18 AM

Don't bet on Tennessee to score more than 9-12 against LSU. Tennessee is traveling to LSU with 66-68 players; 35 or so of them have NEVER taken a road trip with the vols. LSU wins by 3 td's.

**uanl** · 09-28-10, 10:21 AM

reminds me how everyone was all over ECU when they were around 20pt underdogs to VT after VT had lost to the nobody school and ECU even held a halftime lead if i aint mistaken and then VT ran away in the second half and got the cover...

**kurt_06518** · 09-28-10, 10:23 AM

uanl....exactly, this is the same exact game, and everyone jumped on ecu and lost, even people took the money line, haha. These 2 games r identical. i am not saying fiu cant cover but who the hell knows what will happen and the best bet is too stay away. Whenever a dog is teh overwhelming public play, they never pan out

**Facepunch** · 09-28-10, 10:28 AM

Originally posted by Mac9

Don't bet on Tennessee to score more than 9-12 against LSU. Tennessee is traveling to LSU with 66-68 players; 35 or so of them have NEVER taken a road trip with the vols. LSU wins by 3 td's.

I am planning on Tennessee only getting 10-14 pts. I do not see LSU scoring 30. I remember the VaTech game against ECU. The difference is that Jordan Jefferson is not Tyrod Taylor, not even close.

**kurt_06518** · 09-28-10, 10:30 AM

also, there is more public money on fiu but the line is moving up, why is that? uh oh. also another clown posted somehting on hre saying how fiu this week will be his biggest bet of the year, haha, that alone will tell me to go the other way

**Mac9** · 09-28-10, 10:30 AM

If UAB had a field goal kicker that makes one of his five missed FG then Tennessee loses to the Blazers in Knoxville, instead they won after 2 overtimes.

**kurt_06518** · 09-28-10, 10:30 AM

facepunch, he is comparing the vtech game to the pitt game, not the lsu game

**Facepunch** · 09-28-10, 10:35 AM

Originally posted by kurt_06518

facepunch, he is comparing the vtech game to the pitt game, not the lsu game

Gotcha. I still think Pitt is incapable of winning a football game by 3 touchdowns, unless they are playing someone like New Hampshire.

**ACCBlitz** · 09-28-10, 12:11 PM

FIU has played EVERY opponent tough this year. I can easily see them keeping this within 14 points. +21 is one of two dogs I'm eying (NC State being the other).

**hoop guru** · 09-28-10, 12:34 PM

Tenn +9 1st half is better than betting on the whole game. Tenn has been very tough in the first half for last 3 weeks and outscored those opponents 39-27. Tenn has covered both games as an underdog at halftime. Due to depth, tenn is not a good 2nd half team. LSU is a perfect 4-0 in the first half of games this season. tenn is also 4-0 ats in the first half. In situation like this, I prefer the underdog. LSU will not score its team total in the first half. LSU got real lucky in the first half against W Virginia. Not goin to be lucky this week to cover a 9 point first half spread.

Both of the plays are really good for teasers.

**Facepunch** · 09-28-10, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by hoop guru

Tenn +9 1st half is better than betting on the whole game. Tenn has been very tough in the first half for last 3 weeks and outscored those opponents 39-27. Tenn has covered both games as an underdog at halftime. Due to depth, tenn is not a good 2nd half team. LSU is a perfect 4-0 in the first half of games this season. tenn is also 4-0 ats in the first half. In situation like this, I prefer the underdog. LSU will not score its team total in the first half. LSU got real lucky in the first half against W Virginia. Not goin to be lucky this week to cover a 9 point first half spread.

Both of the plays are really good for teasers.

Thanks for the points,

Good call on the Tenn +9 for the first half.

They have gone into half time really well this entire season, and it all goes to crap in the 3rd and 4th quarter, (tired defense maybe).

just look at history:

They go into halftime up 23 to 7 against Alabama Birmingham, and give up 14 points in the second half, to win 32 to 29.

They look like they are in great shape against the FLA. Gators going into halftime losing by four points, but holding Fla to a single touchdown 7-3. As soon as they walk out they drop 17 points in the 3rd quarter. to lose
31 to 17

Now this one is insane,
They are tied with the Oregon Ducks @13 at the half.
they come back out and drop 35 friggin points and score zero.

I still like the whole game, but the 1st half looks real solid.

**Mac4Lyfe** · 09-28-10, 11:17 PM

I like FIU this week as well. Pitt is in disarray and either they get their shit together in 1 week or they continue to implode. FIU plays tough and taking a 1st half line should be a great play but I think 20 is too many points for a Pitt team who is average on offense.

**STEAMA** · 09-28-10, 11:33 PM

Tulane +15 could beat rutgers.

**fishmonger** · 09-28-10, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by Mac4Lyfe

I like FIU this week as well. Pitt is in disarray and either they get their shit together in 1 week or they continue to implode. FIU plays tough and taking a 1st half line should be a great play but I think 20 is too many points for a Pitt team who is average on offense.

I do too. But it makes me nervous everyone else like them too. I wish this game was a little more over looked. I mean that 19 point spread had to come from something. Linesmakers also know that FIU has played good teams tough too. Oh the whole psychology of linesmakers trying to outsmart us just makes my brain hurt. And the line went up after the open and hit 20 and back down to 19.

**delve_deeper** · 09-29-10, 12:27 AM

Key word: might

My hunch is FIU: 20 Pitt: 24 and Tennessee: 21 LSU: 28

I "might" play the 1st halves though and FIU +20. Both LSU and Tennessee are too unpredictable. Good comments in this thread.

**CBASS** · 09-29-10, 02:10 AM

Originally posted by Facepunch

Florida International at Pitt getting +20?

Has Pitt really proven that they deserve to be favored by 20? This is a case of a record not being reflective of how a team has been playing. Florida International is at the top of their game for a small program bringing it to Rutgers, Maryland and only losing by a touchdown to Texas A&M. Pittsburgh on the other hand, well..... did you see the Miami game? they are inept on offense and can not defend the pass. Florida international has been able to make a name for themselves by attacking through the air. This could end up a FLA Int win straight up, but I will take the 20 pts. Good match up, great line. Attack it.

Tennessee At Louisiana St. Getting +16

IF anyone questions this play, you might want to look at some film of LSU vs. WVU. Sure they are awesome on Defense, but their offense is in disarray, This is another home game in which Jordan Jefferson will look confused scared, and show his complete lack of football knowledge. You can also expect to hear boos from the LSU fans like the game against WVU. Jarrett Lee got to get some snaps because Jefferson was so shook. You cant win footballgames without scoring points, and you sure as hell cant cover a 2+ touchdown spread.

You read my mind. These are the two most solid dogs on the board IMO.

**CBASS** · 09-29-10, 02:16 AM

I also like Florida now that Demps will be playing. Bama may win, but covering 9 pts. will be a stretch. Also, Urban Meyer will have a good gameplan considering how much he hates Alabama. Any thoughts on this dog?

**Mr KLC** · 09-29-10, 02:20 AM

Tennessee is a team I want nothing to do with this year.

**Facepunch** · 10-02-10, 04:01 PM

All 4 plays looking good going into the half

**TheThreeKings** · 10-02-10, 04:13 PM

Very impressive calls. I'm on NC State and I put small money on Tenn and FIU 2nd half.

**Joe Sharp** · 10-02-10, 04:28 PM

This is Great. Nice work! PS. Wanny sucks. That's a pretty good stat to bet on. Ha.

**alukk** · 10-02-10, 05:00 PM

Originally posted by STEAMA

Tulane +15 could beat rutgers.