Oh nevermind, just noticed you are an ASU fan. Forget I said anything. I refuse to argue with people who are fans of their team I am too hard headed to give in.
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Adding:
Texas A&M +3 -114 (1x)
So my play tonight is:
Texas A&M +3 -114 (1x)
Texas A&M +3 -110 (1x)
You can play the -114 at Legends.Comment -
Good start keep grinding A&M.Comment -
great start so far!Comment -
bj how many games you play each wek? you seem to be doing good with alot of gamesComment -
Week 1 I played 26, Week 2 I played 15, Week 3 I played 23, and Week 4 I played 28. All were winners except last week. I don't have a set number of plays I want to make. I just play what I like. This week not looking like that many plays but a few strong ones. But, then again I still haven't dug into a bulk of the games yet. Probably will be adding more late tonight and throughout tomorrow. I am comfortable playing 50 games or 1 game if nessecary. I just feel like as long as you have the funds available in your book you have to have the faith in your capping to play the games where you feel you have an edge.Comment -
2H Texas A&M +3 (0.5x)Comment -
wow fukk black qbs, i always tell myself never to bet on them again, but i never listen
stupid
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I won on Auburn a few weeks ago versus MSU.
This one's rough, though. It's tough to win when the quarterback himself gives the ball away four times. That and the A&M receivers can't seem to keep a ball in their hands on first down. Hopefully A&M can at least make it close by the end of the game. We shall see.
Edit:Is it bad that I wanted A&M to miss that last extra point so that the bet would be a win and OK State would try to run out the clock?Comment -
ill gladly take that pushComment -
Not to run this game into the ground, but BJ tell me what you think of the Oregon-Stanford line on 5dimes right now.
09/26 20:07 +6½ -110 / -6½ -110
09/26 20:19 +7 -120 / -7 +100
09/26 20:23 +7 -110 / -7 -110
09/26 20:35 +6½ -110 / -6½ -110
09/26 20:44 +7 -115 / -7 -105
09/27 03:18 +7 -110 / -7 -110
09/29 22:01 +7 -115 / -7 -105
09/30 11:37 +6½ -110 / -6½ -110
09/30 11:41 +7 -115 / -7 -105]
Notice they dropped it down to -6.5 for all of 4 minutes and the rest of they day they've been juicing stanford with the points.
I think I have a solid understanding of what this means, but I'm curious on your thoughts (the line movement more so than the game/teams themselves)?Comment -
Hey it's not about whether the quarterback is black or white. Black QB's get a bad rep because a lot of times the coaches and media overrate them because they can make plays with their feet. If you have a white QB and black QB of equal skill but your black QB can run who are you going to start?
Nope that is the proper thing to root for. Pretty unrealistic and not something you stand up and scream for but definitley something that goes through all of our heads.
Agreed.
Interesting stuff right there. I by no means a line move expert. I do understand the concepts and consider myself above average at reading lines but I wouldn't take what I say to the grave. But, what I get out of it is it seems like across the board everyone offshore has gone back and forth between 7 and 6.5 all week. The public is backing Stanford +7 right now, most books seem to be juicing up Stanford trying to get every last dollar out of Stanford backers. If you notice this at 5 Dimes the line went from 6.5 to 7 three times in times of 4 minutes, 9 minutes, and 12 minutes throughout the week. Bookmaker went from 6.5 to 7 twice in the past two days in times of 2 minutes and 6 minutes. Now, public money won't move a line that quick. Especially on Thursday of a game happening Saturday. Bookmaker opened the line before everyone else at 4.5 the sharps pounded this one up constantly and got it all the way up to 6.5 in a little over an hour. It eventually hit 7 a little after.
So what does all this nonsense mean? To me it seems that the sharps like Oregon but refuse to back them at -7. If you look across the board any time a book goes to 6.5 it goes right back up in usually 90 minutes or less. So the sharps clearly see the value on Oregon at 6.5 but aren't playing the 7. To me the line movement indicates Oregon -6.5 or less is the play.
Hope this helps good luck.Comment -
NCAAF Week 1: 18-8 (+9.40x) (69%)
NCAAF Week 2: 10-5 (+0.60x) (66%)
NCAAF Week 3: 13-10 (+3.78x) (56%)
NCAAF Week 4: 14-14 (-0.20x) (50%)
Week 5 Card
Oregon State -4 (2x)
Iowa/PSU u42.5 (2x)
Georgia -4.5 (1x)
Thursday: 0-1 (-0.55x)
NCAAF Week 5: 0-1 (-0.55x)
NCAAF 2010 Season: 55-38 (+13.03x) (59%)
Going to do some capping now. Will post plays as I make them.
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look forward to it man
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FSU/Virginia u47.5 (1x)
This game will tell us a lot about Florida State here. We only got to see them play away from home against Oklahoma so far and really they never had a shot in this game. Now ACC play begins and Christian Ponder is coming in with a lot of hype. But really how well will he fare? Virginia held up just fine against Matt Barkley who is a better QB surrounded by more talented players. There are some real interesting trends in play here as well. The under is 15-2 in Virginia's last 17 home games against ACC opponents that aren't named Virginia Tech. Not to mention in 8 meetings since 1999 between these two teams the under is 8-0. I am not expecting much out of the Virginia side as far as points go, sure OU exploited FSU's defense but they don't have talented enough receivers to do what Oklahoma did. To me there are only two ways this game goes. Either Virginia will keep it close in a low scoring game 23-20 or something or FSU will blow them out something like 35-7. I really am not expecting a great start out of Ponder though and I think this game stays close throughout and under the total. I think this is too high. The line movement is backing me up as well I beleive.Comment -
Virginia Tech -3 -120 (1x)
I seem to be one of the few people who hasn't lost hope in Virginia Tech. However since the 2nd half of the East Carolina game began they have been playing much better football then the team who lost to James Madison. Since then they are outscoring the opponent 47-3. The one concern here is Ryan Williams will miss this game as well and the running game struggled last week against BC. They struggled to close out drives settling for field goal after field goal. Trust me I am as high on Russel Wilson and NC State as anybody but this just isn't a good match up here. This is by far the best defense they are going against this year. Last year the Hokies held them to just 10 points in a good defensive effort. This is a key game in the year for Va Tech. If they win this game they won't be tested again until Week 10 when they get Georgia Tech at home, a very winnable game there. They could possibly be 7-2 and 5-0 in the ACC before we knew it and back in contention for a BCS bowl. I think the Hokies will use a tough defense, Tyrod Taylor, and solid special teams to keep this crowd and Russel Wilson in check and walk out with a win.Comment -
Notre Dame/Boston College u45.5 (1x)Comment -
Texas +3.5 -115 (1x)
Really excited for this game. Sure it doesn't have the allure of years past but it will tell us a lot about these two programs who are both in the midst of down years. However, I know tons of people like Oklahoma but to me Texas looks to be providing great value at +3.5. The thing is Oklahoma has allowed over 177 yards per game on the ground and really this year that is all Texas has wanted to do is run the ball. They have a stable of backs that all seem to be capable and could cause this defense a lot of trouble. I know you can point to the loss against UCLA last week but to me that was just a sloppy game in a look-ahead situation by the Longhorns. They fumbled four times and turned it over five. Not something that will win you games but also something that won't happen week to week. If the Sooners want to win they will have to figure out this defense, not an easy task. I love Texas defense this year they make big plays and get pressure. That could present problems for a Oklahoma offense that loves to throw the ball. I think this will be a relativley close, low scoring game that Texas edges out a win.Comment -
Not a bad start there mate.
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Vanderbilt +7.5 (1x)
Michigan -10 (1x)
Wisconsin -2 (1x)
Oregon -6.5 -120 (2x)
Oregon/Stanford o65.5 (1x)
Mississippi -3 (1x)
Alabama -8 (1x)Comment -
NCAAF Week 1: 18-8 (+9.40x) (69%)
NCAAF Week 2: 10-5 (+0.60x) (66%)
NCAAF Week 3: 13-10 (+3.78x) (56%)
NCAAF Week 4: 14-14 (-0.20x) (50%)
Week 5 Card
Oregon State -4 (2x)
Iowa/PSU u42.5 (2x)
Oregon -6.5 -120 (2x)
Vanderbilt +7.5 (2x)
Va Tech -3 -120 (2x)
Michigan -10 (1x)
Wisconsin -2 (1x)
Oregon/Stanford o65.5 (1x)
Mississippi -3 (1x)
Alabama -8 (1x)
Georgia -4.5 (1x)
Texas +3.5 (1x)
ND/BC u45.5 (1x)
FSU/Virginia u47.5 (1x)
Thursday: 0-1 (-0.55x)
NCAAF Week 5: 0-1 (-0.55x)
NCAAF 2010 Season: 55-38 (+13.03x) (59%)
Added me a unit on Va Tech and Vandy. This should be it.
Good luck boys.
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That is all I need to confirm my idea of what was going on as well. Interestingly I now see 5dimes has both the -7 (+100) and -6.5 (-115) lines up. This confirms that idea thought as they've just decided to juice anyone wanting oregon at -6.5, so I think all of the above reasoning sounds solid. (not to mention Oregon's record the last few years when gameday is in Eugene is solid).
With you on Oregon -6.5 and big on the over 65 already. glComment -
i have been foolowing your picks the last couple of weeks and i have to agree with about ninety percent of the picks and info that you give. I actually have NC state as one of my strongest picks this saturday. Everyone has doubted them so far and the loss to James Madison and the poor showing to BC last week leaves me with no confidence in VT at all. State has a lot of people excited here in NC for the first time in a long time up there. I believe in "circumstances games" and this is one for State. I dont see a mental let down by any means against a highly touted VT team. I think last week was a huge win for state and I like them to not only win, but win pretty comfortably. Anyway, just wanted a little more feedback on this pick. State 32 VT 20Comment -
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Good luck and let's make some money.
Like I said, it is not that I think NC State will have a mental let down. I think this is a huge game for both teams. Like I said though, this Virginia Tech defense is no joke and could cause Russell Wilson problems if he cant hit his big plays. The Va Tech running game may struggle but Tryod Taylor is certainly more then capable of making big plays. The line provides great value on Va Tech in my opinion. NC State impressed me but we found out Cincy isn't all that good and Georgia Tech is even down from last year. Va Tech needs this win and I will look to back NC St in the future but not in this spot against the team that should find its way into the ACC battle.
Good luck on everything.
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Haha, good luck with everything. Regardless going with me or against me.Comment -
Does FSU look ahead to Miami next week factor into your under thinking on the game at all? thanksComment -
Very little. Call it a look ahead or call it an off game but I think we see Virginia hang with FSU all day today in a low scoring defensive game.
That reminds me. Look ahead games are overrated. I don't think you should ever bet something saying "oh well they will be looking ahead to opponent X next week." I think that is mostly a guessing game. However, I do beleive in factoring look ahead games out of your capping after the fact. That sounds confusing. Example.
Last week I would not bet Texas would not cover because they may end up looking ahead to Oklahoma.
But this week I will strongly consider that Texas isn't as bad as they played last week because they may have been looking ahead to Oklahoma.Comment -
I follow a guy who handicaps the NFL and posts ~54% on his multi-unit picks over years that spoke of look-ahead and might have quoted a statistic, but can't remember. It makes sense, as almost everyone here probably does it with something. School classes come to mind with me, where I've spent appreciably more concentration on a harder class or ignored "easy" classes to where I often end with a better grade in the harder class[es]. That said, it's just one factor. I'd imagine some teams/players are more disciplined than others on the subject too.Comment -
Couldnt FSU just gotten a field goal instead!! we just got the hook
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so there's really nothing to this whole betting thing, right? We just need to read the lines 