NCAAF Week 5 Blowjobs

[GiveMeaBJ]

NCAAF Week 1: 18-8 (+9.40x) (69%)
NCAAF Week 2: 10-5 (+0.60x) (66%)
NCAAF Week 3: 13-10 (+3.78x) (56%)
NCAAF Week 4: 14-14 (-0.20x) (50%)
NCAAF 2010 Season: 55-37 (+13.58x) (59%)

So in Week 4 I hit my first losing week of the year, looking to rebound. Feel much better about this week then I did last week, plus that FIU game was a big swing. Good luck this week.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Oregon State -4 (2x)
Really a lot of value in this number in my opinion. Oregon State came into the year ready to make some noise. No easy games, were scheduled, no cupcakes, no tune ups. They opened up at TCU where they played well, beat Louisville, and then went to Boise and were closer then most expected in that game. Now they are ready to dig into Pac 10 play. This is a game they need to win, despite being 1-2 they still feel they have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Arizona State didn't play well last week, don't let the 11 point loss fool you. They turned the ball over 7 times and really did nothing after an Oregon mistake let them run out to a 24-14 lead. I still don't think Arizona State is a good road team, sure they went to Wisconsin and played their hearts out but they match up better with Wisconsin and the slower style of Big Ten play then they do with Oregon State and the big play capability they have. More on this game later...

[No coincidences]

Hit this up the minute it was released, BJ.

I'm fading both Oregon and Arizona State this week. I think they'll both struggle after last Saturday's wild game in the desert.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Hit this up the minute it was released, BJ.

I'm fading both Oregon and Arizona State this week. I think they'll both struggle after last Saturday's wild game in the desert.

Good, I like being on your side of things. I don't know about fading Oregon yet, I am about to look into it but I rarely bet against Oregon at home. Should be a great game though.

[GiveMeaBJ]

Iowa/Penn State u42.5 (2x)
When these two teams meet one thing is for certain: they are both going to give it their all and fight for every yard. I love this matchup every year, just an old school slugfest and recently since Iowa has become relevant this matchup holds that much more appeal. The thing about this game is what it boils down to is defense. I like both teams defenses. Penn State hasn't given up anything all year other then against Alabama. Holding Bama to 24 in that game though was better then I expected initially. But, unfortunatley for the Nittany Lions their offense is absolutley horrific this year. Sure, you can point to the final drive of last weeks game where they ripped of huge chunks all the way down the field but before that they settled for five field goals! They were deep in Temple territory all day and couldn't find a way into the endzone. Then after that final drive where they finally crack the goal line the announcer says, "I don't want to get ahead of myself but this may be the drive that changes Penn States season." Well buddy, you did get ahead of yourself. Because now you have a freshman QB who has proven to still have training wheels on and is leading this vanilla offense on the road against Iowa who gives up nothing at home. Robert Bolden is the frosh that will be under fire all night Alabama made him look incapable, and for christ sake he struggled against Temple and Kent State. Two teams who traditionally get flattened by Penn State. Now he has to go and face the Hawkeyes who people seem to be down on because of a loss @ Arizona where they gave up 34 points. In their last 46 games at home though they are allowing just 15ppg. Penn State ineptitude on offense will burn them and I would be surprised if they managed to find 14 points in this one. That being said Iowa should cruise to a victory but this Penn St defense will get enough stops to keep this one under. Only way to lose this one is if Iowa wins by 40.

[Saluki09]

You going to play Stanford +7? I love Stanford getting points here.

[GiveMeaBJ]

You going to play Stanford +7? I love Stanford getting points here.

Like I said earlier, I am not crazy about going against Oregon at home. They are just one of those teams that seem to have a real homefield advanage nowadays. I mean they are 29-5 at home since 2004, the last loss came in 2008 against Boise who may be the best road team of the decade. In those games they are 24-10 ATS. I just am not sure yet but all my early leans go to Oregon. I have a feeling Luck will be under more pressure from a speedy defensive line then he has felt all year.

[Aussiecapper101]

Yea boi lets get this money

[Kemalettin]

GL

[DaddyWarBuck$]

I am on Stanford as well...

[No coincidences]

Good, I like being on your side of things. I don't know about fading Oregon yet, I am about to look into it but I rarely bet against Oregon at home. Should be a great game though.

I've never bet against Oregon at home, but will here -- especially if it gets over 7.

[No coincidences]

Iowa/Penn State u42.5 (2x)
When these two teams meet one thing is for certain: they are both going to give it their all and fight for every yard. I love this matchup every year, just an old school slugfest and recently since Iowa has become relevant this matchup holds that much more appeal. The thing about this game is what it boils down to is defense. I like both teams defenses. Penn State hasn't given up anything all year other then against Alabama. Holding Bama to 24 in that game though was better then I expected initially. But, unfortunatley for the Nittany Lions their offense is absolutley horrific this year. Sure, you can point to the final drive of last weeks game where they ripped of huge chunks all the way down the field but before that they settled for five field goals! They were deep in Temple territory all day and couldn't find a way into the endzone. Then after that final drive where they finally crack the goal line the announcer says, "I don't want to get ahead of myself but this may be the drive that changes Penn States season." Well buddy, you did get ahead of yourself. Because now you have a freshman QB who has proven to still have training wheels on and is leading this vanilla offense on the road against Iowa who gives up nothing at home. Robert Bolden is the frosh that will be under fire all night Alabama made him look incapable, and for christ sake he struggled against Temple and Kent State. Two teams who traditionally get flattened by Penn State. Now he has to go and face the Hawkeyes who people seem to be down on because of a loss @ Arizona where they gave up 34 points. In their last 46 games at home though they are allowing just 15ppg. Penn State ineptitude on offense will burn them and I would be surprised if they managed to find 14 points in this one. That being said Iowa should cruise to a victory but this Penn St defense will get enough stops to keep this one under. Only way to lose this one is if Iowa wins by 40.

Like this one also. Could see a 20-13 type Iowa win.

[bbar86]

betting against oregon at home with the offense they have this year....suicide

[GiveMeaBJ]

Georgia -4.5 (1x)
I will try Georgia one more week. I still think they are about to make a run and get themselves back into the argument as contenders in the SEC. Georgia has lost three straight but before we overreact, those were against three SEC opponents and two of them were ranked. There is a big difference playing an SEC team and playing Colorado and what has Colorado proven this year to warrant such a short line? They beat Hawaii and Colorado State but when they played an average team (California) they got blown out. I wish I got this line at -1.5 before the sharps bet this one up but this will have to do. Aaron Murray also might have his favorite weapon available. AJ Green is listed as probable. I think Georgia will roll in this one.

[Aussiecapper101]

Georgia -4.5 (1x)
I will try Georgia one more week. I still think they are about to make a run and get themselves back into the argument as contenders in the SEC. Georgia has lost three straight but before we overreact, those were against three SEC opponents and two of them were ranked. There is a big difference playing an SEC team and playing Colorado and what has Colorado proven this year to warrant such a short line? They beat Hawaii and Colorado State but when they played an average team (California) they got blown out. I wish I got this line at -1.5 before the sharps bet this one up but this will have to do. Aaron Murray also might have his favorite weapon available. AJ Green is listed as probable. I think Georgia will roll in this one.

georgia cost me money brudda Im gonna get that back.. hopefully! cheers

[hitman2010]

Like the first one, 3-4 bets a week is enogth for me.

[Dan]

BOL

[dngf]

I like your thoughts on UGA this week, good luck

[GiveMeaBJ]

Texas A&M +3 (1x)
Pretty excited for this game right here. Two teams that I think have some potential but haven't yet been tested and we should find out what is what here. I think we have to throw out most of the numbers these two teams have compiled this year. In there combined six games they have played Stephen F. Austin, Troy, Tulsa, Washington State, and Florida International. So let's look at what we know first. Ok State returns just 8 starters this year and the Aggies came into this year returning sixteen starters with high hopes of competing in the Big 12. The linesmakers are indicating that these two squads are even but to me, I just don't see how that is the case here. Brandon Weeden for OSU is making his first career start against a respectable opponent, sure he compiled gaudy numbers against the cupcakes but the 3 interceptions are a bit worrying given the competition he played. If the Cowboys want to win this game they need Kendall Hunter to come out and have a big game. Through the first three games he is averaging 7.9 yards per carry but I don't expect that to continue with a tough A&M front seven in front of him. The big concern for the Cowboys is their horrific defense. Allowing 38 points to Troy, 28 points to Tulsa, and 17 points to Washington State all on your home field isn't a good sign for this defense. This is a defense that I didn't think was too bad last year but this year they have just looked awful. If there is any game where they put it together it needs to be this one at home. But can they do it?

The Aggies are led by Jerrod Johnson who, to me is a Big 12 offensive player of the year candidate with his ability to run and pass. People are pointing to his struggles against Florida International where he threw 4 picks and was just 11/31 but that doesn't worry me much. FIU is a sneaky team with a sneaky good defense now, I don't defend those numbers but everyone is entitled to a bad game and he proved his worth last year with 30 touchdowns, 8 interceptions, over 500 rushing yards, and 8 rushing touchdowns. Johson also threw 3 touchdowns and no picks last year against OSU and while the questions of his shoulder are popping up I am going to take the coaching staffs word for it and say it is not something to worry about and he just had a bad game last week.

I see everyone jumping onto the under saying it is too high but the thing is this OSU defense is terrible and I think Texas A&M has atleast 38 points in them in a hostile enviornment. I think this game has the makings of a close game. I think Hunter should be able to run the ball with success and I just don't see OSU stopping anybody right now. Too much inexperience and they still don't look like a team that has gelled (is that how you spell it?). OSU has won the last two meetings but times have changed, gone is Zac Robinson and gone is a defense that looked capable and OSU has never beaten A&M in three straight years. Not to mention I am seeing a ton of action on OSU yet the line is holding very strong at 3 and has sunk from an originial 3.5 posted at most shops. I think this one has the makings of a 37-31 game in A&M's favor.

Good luck whatever you decide.

[GiveMeaBJ]

georgia cost me money brudda Im gonna get that back.. hopefully! cheers

Like the first one, 3-4 bets a week is enogth for me.

BOL

I like your thoughts on UGA this week, good luck

Good luck fellas. Let's make some money.

[MendozaLine]

hey good luck this weekend pal. glad to see you shook off last weekend. get back those losses on thursday and saturday

[TylerDurden]

Save your money and don't ever ever ever fade Oregon at home. They have won almost every big game at home the last few years by a comfortable margin. Take the Over in this game... it's gonna be a shootout, but Oregon has too many weapons.

[GiveMeaBJ]

That is what I have been saying.

[TylerDurden]

That is what I have been saying.

and you are spot on. While I'm not sure Oregon's defense can completely shut down Luck, this is his first trip to Autzen and hands down the best defense/toughest environment he's played in thus far. Oregon is gonna get there's vs an average at best defense...there is a reason that the spread is a full touchdown. The over looks juicy to me...like 3-5 units juicy

[GiveMeaBJ]

and you are spot on. While I'm not sure Oregon's defense can completely shut down Luck, this is his first trip to Autzen and hands down the best defense/toughest environment he's played in thus far. Oregon is gonna get there's vs an average at best defense...there is a reason that the spread is a full touchdown. The over looks juicy to me...like 3-5 units juicy

I'm leaning Oregon and over as well. Should be a real fun game to watch. The best part about backing this over is no matter the score neither offense will stop trying to score. Should be several garbage touchdowns in this one.

[freeVICK]

everyone on ok st, weekday game, reverse line movement..... dont know shit about either team, but A&M has to be the play right?

[GiveMeaBJ]

everyone on ok st, weekday game, reverse line movement..... dont know shit about either team, but A&M has to be the play right?

It appears that way.

[freeVICK]

what do you think about byu/utah st bro?

[GiveMeaBJ]

what do you think about byu/utah st bro?

Personally, I don't like that game at all but it being the only game on a Friday I have a feeling if I am home before kickoff I will find my way onto it.

All the line movements points to Utah St. BUT Utah St hasn't shown me anything this year, well either has BYU. However, BYU has played some tough games so no telling what they will do to this team. Definitley not the dominating BYU teams of the past few years. If I had to play the game I would play Utah St and under.

[cowboyfan08]

Good luck this weekend, bj on georgia with ya big!

[JVP3122]

Personally, I don't like that game at all but it being the only game on a Friday I have a feeling if I am home before kickoff I will find my way onto it.

All the line movements points to Utah St. BUT Utah St hasn't shown me anything this year, well either has BYU. However, BYU has played some tough games so no telling what they will do to this team. Definitley not the dominating BYU teams of the past few years. If I had to play the game I would play Utah St and under.

I was wondering if you could explain this just a little. I'm not sure how the line movement is indicating that Utah State is the play. Just looking at the sbrodds info, the movement seems consistent with the amount of people on BYU. Apologies for needing explanation, I'm just learning stuff right now.

[GiveMeaBJ]

I was wondering if you could explain this just a little. I'm not sure how the line movement is indicating that Utah State is the play. Just looking at the sbrodds info, the movement seems consistent with the amount of people on BYU. Apologies for needing explanation, I'm just learning stuff right now.

Ok, right now I think we have about 60-65% of the best coming in on BYU. The line opened on 9/26 at TheGreek at -6. Now, if you get BYU bets at -6 you should go up correct? The line should be moving up to -6.5/-7 to get some action on Utah State. But, that didn't happen. Instead the line was down to 5 by 9/28. Right now it is at -4/-4.5 and may go as low as -3.5 tomorrow night. This is indicating smart money backing Utah State and the bookmakers siding with them and lowering the line without worrying about the square, steady, BYU action that is flowing in.

I hope that makes sense.

[JVP3122]

Ok, right now I think we have about 60-65% of the best coming in on BYU. The line opened on 9/26 at TheGreek at -6. Now, if you get BYU bets at -6 you should go up correct? The line should be moving up to -6.5/-7 to get some action on Utah State. But, that didn't happen. Instead the line was down to 5 by 9/28. Right now it is at -4/-4.5 and may go as low as -3.5 tomorrow night. This is indicating smart money backing Utah State and the bookmakers siding with them and lowering the line without worrying about the square, steady, BYU action that is flowing in.

I hope that makes sense.

Thanks a lot, I appreciate your patience. I guess it's a different animal than baseball ML movement. In football it seems that they would want close to 50% as opposed to having 66%/34% for a 2-1 ML in baseball. I think that's from where my confusion came. Thanks for the explanation.

[OnenOnlyMush]

Oregon State -4 (2x)
Really a lot of value in this number in my opinion. Oregon State came into the year ready to make some noise. No easy games, were scheduled, no cupcakes, no tune ups. They opened up at TCU where they played well, beat Louisville, and then went to Boise and were closer then most expected in that game. Now they are ready to dig into Pac 10 play. This is a game they need to win, despite being 1-2 they still feel they have a shot at the Rose Bowl. Arizona State didn't play well last week, don't let the 11 point loss fool you. They turned the ball over 7 times and really did nothing after an Oregon mistake let them run out to a 24-14 lead. I still don't think Arizona State is a good road team, sure they went to Wisconsin and played their hearts out but they match up better with Wisconsin and the slower style of Big Ten play then they do with Oregon State and the big play capability they have. More on this game later...

Funny how you say "Arizona State didn't play well last week, don't let the 11 point loss fool you."

Well since you obviously missed the game I found the stats for you. ASU won the battle everywhere except turnovers which obviously led to the loss but to say they didn't play well is foolish.





Team Stat Comparison


1st downs ASU 31 Oregon 21
3rd down % ASU 9-20 Oregon 2-13
Total Yards ASU 597 Oregon 405
Passing ASU 387 Oregon 260
Rushing ASU 210 Oregon 145
avg per rush ASU 4.6 Oregon 4.0
TOP ASU 34:26 Oregon 25:34
Turnovers ASU 7 Oregon 2

[GiveMeaBJ]

Funny how you say "Arizona State didn't play well last week, don't let the 11 point loss fool you."

Well since you obviously missed the game I found the stats for you. ASU won the battle everywhere except turnovers which obviously led to the loss but to say they didn't play well is foolish.





Team Stat Comparison


1st downs ASU 31 Oregon 21
3rd down % ASU 9-20 Oregon 2-13
Total Yards ASU 597 Oregon 405
Passing ASU 387 Oregon 260
Rushing ASU 210 Oregon 145
avg per rush ASU 4.6 Oregon 4.0
TOP ASU 34:26 Oregon 25:34
Turnovers ASU 7 Oregon 2

I did watch the game Mush. What do those stats prove? You don't think the stats are skewed a bit? Oregon had 16 possessions and Arizona State had 21 possessions. Two of Oregons possessions were spent running out the clock in each half so reall it was 21-14. Oregon State had a pick six and a fumble return so they didn't get to get the yards or TOP there. They had two long touchdowns so no TOP there. They thre an INT on the first play of one of those drives. They had three gains of over 50 yards. Arizona States defense didn't play terrible. They were victimized by the big gains. Tons of these games were for over 10 yards or nothing. ASU drives typically went for a while and then they would turn it over. If you did watch the game how can you say ASU deserved to be within 11 of Oregon?