Wal's College Football Week #5

wal66 · 09-27-10, 07:46 AM

Very early on I see some lines that are off but since I have done a very poor job of judging the movement thus far I am gonna hold off till later in the week before confirming my plays.

bigcat1 · 09-27-10, 07:46 AM

MR WALL, I AM sure you will pick out a handful of great games, i had a good week, this past week, but i am not seeing great games this week, right now like vandy and okie st, looking forward to your write ups, tried to get you on the florida v/s kentucky wagon last week, But this may be the game to take uk but seems like ole miss is getting better????

wal66 · 09-27-10, 08:01 AM

Cat, I didn't bet the Kentucky/Florida game. I did give reasons to not take Florida all week but I stayed away. The Florida on display Saturday night was the Florida we saw in the spring and early summer practices.

The game left me a little perplexed though because for all intent and purposes we dominated Kentucky. Kentucky is better than they played which leaves me wondering if Kentucky is just a product of the Florida mystique when they play us or is Florida finally starting to come around?

I want to believe that the Gators are finally starting to gel a little. Unfortunately instead of another formative opponent we get an ultimate opponent this week. Will we continue to spread the ball around or will Adazio fall inlove with Burtin, Burtin, Burtin?

wal66 · 09-27-10, 08:54 AM

These are the games I will be choosing from this week.

NOT PLAYING ALL THESE GAMES

Oklahoma St -3.5 Program -7.5
BYU -6.5 Program -13.5
Temple -3 Program -7.5
Ohio U -7.5 Program -10
Miami -3 Program -9
NC State +6 Program +1.5
Northwestern -6.5 Program -13.5
Vanderbilt +6 Program -3
Kentucky PK Program -5.5
Miami Ohio -2 Program -5.5
Idaho -3.5 Program -7
Oklahoma -2 Program -5.5
Georgia -2 Program -4.5
Toledo -1.5 Program -7.5
UL Lafayette +5 Program -1.5
Notre Dame -1.5 Program -2.5
Penn St +4.5 Program -2.5

Notre Dame and Georgia do not qualify under normal program requirements but are favored by more than the actual line at this time.

Ca$hfloW · 09-27-10, 09:07 AM

Looking forward to what you have to say about the osu/A&M game I will be at the game and would love some action

dchecks · 09-27-10, 09:41 AM

I read your thread saw Okie State at 3.5 went to lay down a play and My book already moved the line to 7....

The DiB · 09-27-10, 09:43 AM

What's going on with the line your program came up with for the Alabama game? Should be -3.5 I'm guessing?

dchecks · 09-27-10, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by dchecks

I read your thread saw Okie State at 3.5 went to lay down a play and My book already moved the line to 7....

Wierdest thing now it's at 3.5 again.....

wal66 · 09-27-10, 09:55 AM

Dibs, my program suggest Alabama should be favored by no more than 3.5. The fact the line opened at 9 gives me ample room for a play On Florida if I were willing to blindly follow the program which I'm not. I just use the program to find games that I might normally miss and research them further.

Joe_Shabadoo · 09-27-10, 05:36 PM

I know how you loosely described your program before, and I can see that it leads a good bit from the Sagarin ratings (as you mentioned), but I actually see an "easy" caveat to filter out lines that look to be too "off"; simply: Quarterback efficiency.

It's not ground breaking, though. But what can reasonably be extrapolated from a team's ability on offense to have successful plays in warranted situations?

For example: last week your system had Miami (-2) at PITT. My system seems to be quite similar as i had Miami (-3.7), as my system does not come out with whole numbers. Similarly, we both had N.C. State as outright winners.

Now, I don't think that we'll always hit with those big underdogs cashing on the moneyline, but, the point being: Acute efficiency. If one had watched PITT play this year, they'd know that Tino Sunseri is timid, and as well, a horrible overall play-selection/execution has basically snuffed him out.

Russell Wilson, on the other hand, is a smart veteran signal caller that is always finding targets downfield in a calm manner. Add in what may be the best WR corps. in the ACC outside of Miami and you have the makings of a team that can hang with anyone.

Additionally, I had Fresno State as a 4-point favorite at Ole Miss, but based on the line given I just knew Pat Hill was finally in for it that time around. I'm just glad I stayed away from that game, suffice to say. In the same vein, it seems that N.C. State as a whole was largely an oversight by oddsmakers though.

Long story short: I think we may know how to gradually filter out those lines that stick out for whatever reason based on just small amount of criteria.

madworld · 09-27-10, 06:20 PM

BYU -6.5 is a great play. I think the spot is finally right for BYU and although they will be playing at Utah State their will be many BYU fans there, and wont be such a home game for Utah State. I believe the game will be close in the first half, but BYU will start pulling ahead in the 2nd half and win this by 2+ touchdowns.

I was also looking at Vandy. I think UCONN is overated this year although they did look impressive last week. I still believe Vandy +6 is the play and their is definite value in the ML.

wal66 · 09-27-10, 06:35 PM

I am on all these games but would advise just tracking until I see the program start producing. There were several other games that qualified that I just had to cut due to the already increased number of plays.

Plays:

Oklahoma St -3.5
Temple -5
Miami -3
Vanderbilt +7.5
Miami Ohio +3
Oklahoma -3.5
Bowling Green -4
Georgia -4
Toledo -3
Penn St +7

All to win 1 unit.

Ca$hfloW · 09-27-10, 06:38 PM

BOL I am going to see how it does like you said

wal66 · 09-27-10, 06:49 PM

Joe, sounds good and I agree that there is aditional filtering that can be done to decrease the number and increase the potential. As for whole and half numbers on all my lines is because I have my program set to round to the nearest .5.

Madworld BYU is actually one of the ones I cut but rates as a strong play. I only cut it because I felt 10 games was already too many. In truth I probably should have kept BYU over 1 or 2 of the ones I took.

ManBearPig · 09-27-10, 07:02 PM

Nevada will crush UNLV by 30+ this weekend...that line is way too low. They are not a good team and who cares if it is in Vegas half the fans will be Nev fans anyways. They always get up for this game and UNLV will be lucky to score 10 pts in this one the way, our defense is playing right now. Yes, I am a Nev fan and I don't usually tout but this is one of the easier plays IMO just based on the history and I just want to share. I could be wrong and I'm not calling it a ****1000*** Super Duper Donkey Donk Play of the Year!!! (echo) but it's close. Whether you play it or not it's worth a look for people who may not be aware.

rhymenocerous · 09-28-10, 12:15 AM

Wally, why am I not seeing an FSU/UVA line in the OP?

Edit: Nevermind. I see it now.

Still don't understand it, but I'll probably stay away. The spread, your model, and the public betting pattern is starting to make me think the hoos might actually have a real shot in this game. Up until now, I haven't been able to imagine them staying within two TD's of FSU. I'm still not sure I can see it.

mymarley · 09-28-10, 12:17 AM

I got nev as well. They look tough so far. Unlv hasnt seen an offence like this let.

cowboyfan08 · 09-28-10, 12:44 AM

Big on georgia play.bol wal66

bigcat1 · 09-28-10, 06:24 AM

i only have 3 plays so far with ya, ok st, ok, and georgia, really like georgia this week, may double that game, kinda leaning towards clemson +3.5, they played auburn well, kinda of the eye test on that one, of course miami looked great against pitt last thursday, not pulled the trigger there, good luck as usual, its ashame people make up so many threads over the same game, and the good threads gets shoved to the bottom, bol

wal66 · 09-28-10, 06:32 AM

To be fair with everyone there are 3 games on my card this week I am less than real confident in. Okie St is one of them because I have had a bad history with them in the past, Penn St is another one because Iowa is the better team here and Penn St has looked less than aggressive thus far this season and lastly Miami-Ohio.

Good luck to everyone this week.

HoldEmHook!! · 09-28-10, 09:33 PM

Wal, I have started trying to use your program lines with a little system I am working on the plays from the combined efforts are
Toledo -3 and Idaho - 2, I am playing both of these. just some info for tracking purposes. bol and ROLL TIDE!!!! he,he,he,

BigJ · 09-29-10, 06:07 AM

I've notice Toledo has made your picks for several weeks now. Does that seem odd to you? Just wondering.....The Rockets aren't that good, eventhough they beat my Boilers...

wal66 · 09-29-10, 06:42 AM

Originally posted by BigJ

I've notice Toledo has made your picks for several weeks now. Does that seem odd to you? Just wondering.....The Rockets aren't that good, eventhough they beat my Boilers...

This is only the second time Toledo has made my card, granted it's now in back to back weeks though. As for it being odd, nope. When teams win or play well against better teams or at least manage to put up quality stats it is reflected in their ratings. Since the base portion of my program is heavy in that category it's not odd at all for a team to come up as a play more often.

That being said though I won't always still play on those teams. For example, Kentucky again this week rates as a play but due to the situation I chose to avoid this play. Just a hunch cause there is real potential for them to cover and posibly even win.

The final process of my program is all on me. The teams I have to choose from are basically all equal in terms of win potential but I have a limited amount of money I am willing to invest every week so I choose which to keep and which to eliminate.

I really like Toledo.

wal66 · 09-29-10, 06:43 AM

Originally posted by HoldEmHook!!

Wal, I have started trying to use your program lines with a little system I am working on the plays from the combined efforts are
Toledo -3 and Idaho - 2, I am playing both of these. just some info for tracking purposes. bol and ROLL TIDE!!!! he,he,he,

Idaho qualified for me as well HH as did UL Lafayette but since I lost with both of them last week I elected to eliminate both this week. Idaho looks to be in a good spot though.

thomas6512 · 09-29-10, 08:05 AM

maybe your playing to many games
just my opinion

scarecrow717 · 09-29-10, 04:33 PM

wal,

thoughts on NC State vs. VT? NC state is playing some great football. here's my teaser:

Toledo +8
NC State +14.5
Oklahoma State +7.5

and by the way i just gave you the points cause i dont know what to do with them either

kboiler · 09-29-10, 04:36 PM

I think you should parlay all of them with all you got

BigJ · 09-29-10, 05:13 PM

Originally posted by wal66

This is only the second time Toledo has made my card, granted it's now in back to back weeks though. As for it being odd, nope. When teams win or play well against better teams or at least manage to put up quality stats it is reflected in their ratings. Since the base portion of my program is heavy in that category it's not odd at all for a team to come up as a play more often.

That being said though I won't always still play on those teams. For example, Kentucky again this week rates as a play but due to the situation I chose to avoid this play. Just a hunch cause there is real potential for them to cover and posibly even win.

The final process of my program is all on me. The teams I have to choose from are basically all equal in terms of win potential but I have a limited amount of money I am willing to invest every week so I choose which to keep and which to eliminate.

I really like Toledo.

Thank you sir. I appreciate the write up.

wal66 · 09-29-10, 05:36 PM

Originally posted by scarecrow717

wal,

thoughts on NC State vs. VT? NC state is playing some great football. here's my teaser:

Toledo +8
NC State +14.5
Oklahoma State +7.5

and by the way i just gave you the points cause i dont know what to do with them either

I had to step away from the NC State game, not because I didn't like it but because I liked it too much. I know that sounds crazy but here's the thing. Sometimes we can allow ourselves to fall inlove with a team due to past performances and this causes us to lose objectivity.

I felt that way about NC State. LOVE then in this spot though.

As for the points I did what I normally do and gave a bunch to Bateman and a few others to others. Thanks again.

Oh almost forgot. I am terible with teasers but to me that one looks great.

scarecrow717 · 10-01-10, 01:14 AM

"I had to step away from the NC State game, not because I didn't like it but because I liked it too much. I know that sounds crazy but here's the thing. Sometimes we can allow ourselves to fall inlove with a team due to past performances and this causes us to lose objectivity."

this is a great point, i wouldn't take them at the original line but i like them at 14.5 a lot. I'm sorry Okie St. didn't work out for you but you've got several other great plays on your card that should make up for it. go toledo!

BOL

BadNina · 10-01-10, 01:26 AM

Good luck this week, Wally dear. And extra luck with Georgia. They let me down last week and I am still very bitter towards them.

wal66 · 10-01-10, 09:57 AM

Thanks Nina. Georgia you would think HAS to win a game at some point. I know how bad they have looked but I can't that's really as bad as they are. If they lose this weekend or don't cover I will be done with them as well.

Scarecrow, yeah lastnight hurt a lot. I mean if the second half had gone the way the first half went then it would have been cool. I mean I would have just been wrong but to play the way they did in the 3rd quarter only to allow for a crappy cover late in the 4th was BRUTAL. Just goes to show you though buying that hook has it's advantages.

wal66 · 10-02-10, 09:21 AM

Already lost my opening game and tracking line movement this week it looks early on as if this will be another bad weekend for the program.

AdaBarber · 10-02-10, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by wal66

I am on all these games but would advise just tracking until I see the program start producing. There were several other games that qualified that I just had to cut due to the already increased number of plays.

Plays:

Oklahoma St -3.5
Temple -5
Miami -3
Vanderbilt +7.5
Miami Ohio +3
Oklahoma -3.5
Bowling Green -4
Georgia -4
Toledo -3
Penn St +7

All to win 1 unit.

Wall! Long time buddy. I agree with all your plays except for the Vanderbilt play.