Reverse Line Movement games to be cautious of

**agharah1** · 09-21-10, 02:21 AM

It would be very "Pac-10" of Oregon to up and lose in Tempe this weekend.

**goblue12** · 09-21-10, 11:19 AM

What a surprise.

The public is backing Top-10 teams on the road.

**Hotlanta Steam** · 09-21-10, 11:33 AM

Originally posted by goblue12

What a surprise.

The public is backing Top-10 teams on the road.

I get your jab but in their defense... the current Top 10 teams all on the road last week... Alabama, Texas, Boise, Nebraska and Arkansas... did all cover.

The only Top 10 from last week that did not was Iowa in a sure fire trap game that they still could have won if not for dicking around in the first Q...

I am quite sure 4-1 ATS while betting on national TV games made some people happy...

**THE PROFIT** · 09-21-10, 12:13 PM

Temple 3-0 for the first time since Jesus was a man & not a god! This is an up & coming program & they are ballin!

**ackem19** · 09-25-10, 02:20 AM

Full List of Games with RLM updated 9/25/10

C. Michigan @ Northwestern

Opening Hilton Line: Northwestern -8.5
79% of public money is on Northwestern
Current Hilton Line: Northwestern -7

Army @ Duke

Opening Hilton Line: Duke -7
65% of public money is on Duke
Current Hilton Line: Duke -6

USC @ Washington St.

Opening Hilton Line: USC -23.5
83% of public money is on USC
Current Hilton Line: USC -22

Temple @ Penn St.

Opening Hilton Line: Penn St. -16.5
59% of public money is on Penn St.
Current Hilton Line: Penn St. -14

UCLA @ Texas

Opening Hilton Line: Texas -16.5
80% of public money is on Texas
Current Hilton Line: Texas -15

Arkansas St. @ Troy

Opening Hilton Line: Troy -13
91% of public money is on Troy
Current Hilton Line: Troy -10.5

Oklahoma @ Cincinnati

Opening Hilton Line: Oklahoma -17
74% of public money is on Oklahoma
Current Hilton Line: Oklahoma -14

So. Miss @ Louisiana Tech

Opening Hilton Line: So. Miss -5
89% of public money is on So. Miss
Current Hilton Line: So. Miss -3.5

W. Virginia @ LSU

Opening Hilton Line: W. Virginia +6.5
54% of public money is on W. Virginia
Current Hilton Line: W. Virginia +10

**GiveMeaBJ** · 09-25-10, 02:35 AM

Originally posted by ackem19

Some of my early leans were Oklahoma and Texas but I'm definitely going to have to decide whether or not to stick to those plays.

Oklahoma @ Cincinnati

Opening Sportsbook.com Line: Oklahoma -17.5.
84% of public money is on Oklahoma.
Current line is Oklahoma -15.5

Bowling Green @ Michigan

Opening Sportsbook.com line: Bowling Green +23.5
62% of public money is on Bowling Green
Current line is Bowling Green +25.5

UCLA @ Texas

Opening Sportsbook.com line: Texas -16.5
85% of public money is on Texas
Current line is Texas -15.5

Oregon @ Arizona St

Opening Sportsbook.com line: Oregon -11
90% of public money is on Oregon
Current line is Oregon -10.5

USC @ Washington St.

Opening Sportsbook.com line: USC -24
55% of public money is on USC
Current line is USC -21.5

I would be very cautious of playing OU and Texas.

Don't see your point on USC though. USC opened at -21.5 on Bookmaker and is now up to 22. Bookmaker is a square book don't go by where there lines open and close.

Oregon opened at 9.5 and is now up to 11.5.

**jennerjoseph** · 09-25-10, 02:38 AM

i dont understand..... if 75% of public money is on oklahoma, why would the line move in a way that would encourage more oklahoma bettors? I thought that the way sportsbooks work is that if a lot of money is on one side, then they make the opponents line more favorable to make the safest profits for a sports book? please help me by explaining this!

Ackem- good information! thanks for your research. Also, Where do you get this information? like where could I go to see what % the public's money is betting on. Thanks! i gave u a few points in advance

**GiveMeaBJ** · 09-25-10, 02:43 AM

Originally posted by jennerjoseph

i dont understand..... if 75% of public money is on oklahoma, why would the line move in a way that would encourage more oklahoma bettors? I thought that the way sportsbooks work is that if a lot of money is on one side, then they make the opponents line more favorable to make the safest profits for a sports book? please help me by explaining this!

Because the sharp bettors (the winners who books actually care about) are betting Cincinatti and driving the line down. They move the line down so all the winners (who tend to bet bigger then the public) don't load up on Cincy +17. Now at 14 the line has lost it's value and now they have to either lay off completley or some may actually try to middle it with a bet on Cincy +17.5 and OU -13.5 meaning they have a 4 point window to win both bets limiting their exposure to losses.

In Summary: Not enough of the public money wins long term for the books to give the sharps added value.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 09-25-10, 02:43 AM

If you don't get it PM me.

**jennerjoseph** · 09-25-10, 03:50 AM

i think i get it now. thanks!

so basically, when 75% of public money is on one side but the line keeps moving in favor of this, it means that there are bettors that are putting a LOT more money than the average public bettor and affecting the line... right?

**GiveMeaBJ** · 09-25-10, 03:55 AM

Originally posted by jennerjoseph

i think i get it now. thanks!

so basically, when 75% of public money is on one side but the line keeps moving in favor of this, it means that there are bettors that are putting a LOT more money than the average public bettor and affecting the line... right?

Correct for the most part. Sometimes it is more money, sometimes it is less money but is always the bettors the books have pegged as "Sharp". Squares bet $5,000 on games too but they won't move the lines. Winners who bet $1,000 on games have more ability to the line. It's just all about who is sharp and who is not.

But, let's remember, while RLM is never bad to have on your side I don't really think it is a proper betting strategy. I think it is just interesting to take notice in a few games a week. If you want sharp plays the sharps are on Central Mich, Cincy, UCLA, Miss St, and Ark.

**GiveMeaBJ** · 09-25-10, 03:59 AM

Arkansas St. @ Troy

Opening Hilton Line: Troy -13
91% of public money is on Troy
Current Hilton Line: Troy -10.5

Shit like this should be brushed off though. No public players want to play this game or know anything about this game. I don't even think too many sharps want a piece of it. This line opened offshore at 12 and has flirted between 12/11.5/11/11.5/12/11.5/11/10.5 where it sits right now. Really nothing to read about those line moves. If you want to look at the total though this opened at 63.5 and immediatley jumped to 66.5. But, in games like this where not much money is being played on either side I really think it is just best to move on.

**ackem19** · 09-25-10, 06:43 AM

"

**GiveMeaBJ** · 09-25-10, 06:45 AM

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**ackem19** · 09-26-10, 03:21 AM

7-2 today. 17-9 (65.4%) since 9/17/2010.

**BiffTFinancial** · 09-26-10, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by ackem19

7-2 today. 17-9 (65.4%) since 9/17/2010.

woot! great work. was on Army, but didn't have the stones to back UCLA or Cincy. my mistake. hit with Toledo, another game with RLM.