Nevada ML+127
1.575 to win 2
2010 NCAAF 3-2 +4.41
I'll take the ML here instead of a +2.5 or -120 +3. Just think Nevada wins SU or Cal wins by 10+, so it's worth the risk and could end up saving me .825 unit if I lose in order to win the same amount had I laid +3 -120 2.4 to win 2.
1) Small Home Dog Friday Night Game - Home night games are one of the biggest advantages a team could have, especially a Friday night game hosting a team coming off short rest. Cal just blew out two shit teams at home, and now they have to beat a tough Nevada team in hostile Reno. People are downplaying the crowd factor here, but don't realize that fans are excited for this team, one of the best they've had in years. The stadium should be electric.
2) Public Fade - Cal seems to be the square pick du jour of the weekend. As much as 72% were on Cal on sbrodds, and as much as 90% were on Cal earlier in the week at sportsbook.com (squarest shop ever). Covers currently shows 73% on Cal. Whenever there's this much action on a road fav in a night game, particularly if the spread seems too low like a "trap" game, then there's a pretty good chance Vegas will win. Big public side + road night game + "this looks too easy" square perception + Brock Landers Rubber Band Play = a rare happy ending for the road team backers.
3) Nevada Offense - Nevada = #1 Rushing Offense in 2009, #6 already in 2010 with returning 3rd year starting senior RB Vai Taua, who ran for 1300+ yds in 2 years; and 4th year starting senior QB Colin Kaepernick, who ran for 1100 yards in 08 and 09 and 2000+ passing in all 3 years. This will be a major test for the Cal defense, which has yet to be seriously tested and will have to amp it up a ton in this game. Nevada has 18 returning starters total.
The line movement (or lack of) is another thing to look at. With this much action on Cal, there's no reason the line shouldn't be -3 across the board, and yet it's -2.5 -110 at most shops. And wherever it is -3, it's only +100 or lower. Either books are confident to take a stand with Nevada @ +2.5, or sharps are preventing a -3 or higher move. Either way, it's a good sign for Nevada backers.
Good Luck.
1.575 to win 2
2010 NCAAF 3-2 +4.41
I'll take the ML here instead of a +2.5 or -120 +3. Just think Nevada wins SU or Cal wins by 10+, so it's worth the risk and could end up saving me .825 unit if I lose in order to win the same amount had I laid +3 -120 2.4 to win 2.
1) Small Home Dog Friday Night Game - Home night games are one of the biggest advantages a team could have, especially a Friday night game hosting a team coming off short rest. Cal just blew out two shit teams at home, and now they have to beat a tough Nevada team in hostile Reno. People are downplaying the crowd factor here, but don't realize that fans are excited for this team, one of the best they've had in years. The stadium should be electric.
2) Public Fade - Cal seems to be the square pick du jour of the weekend. As much as 72% were on Cal on sbrodds, and as much as 90% were on Cal earlier in the week at sportsbook.com (squarest shop ever). Covers currently shows 73% on Cal. Whenever there's this much action on a road fav in a night game, particularly if the spread seems too low like a "trap" game, then there's a pretty good chance Vegas will win. Big public side + road night game + "this looks too easy" square perception + Brock Landers Rubber Band Play = a rare happy ending for the road team backers.
3) Nevada Offense - Nevada = #1 Rushing Offense in 2009, #6 already in 2010 with returning 3rd year starting senior RB Vai Taua, who ran for 1300+ yds in 2 years; and 4th year starting senior QB Colin Kaepernick, who ran for 1100 yards in 08 and 09 and 2000+ passing in all 3 years. This will be a major test for the Cal defense, which has yet to be seriously tested and will have to amp it up a ton in this game. Nevada has 18 returning starters total.
The line movement (or lack of) is another thing to look at. With this much action on Cal, there's no reason the line shouldn't be -3 across the board, and yet it's -2.5 -110 at most shops. And wherever it is -3, it's only +100 or lower. Either books are confident to take a stand with Nevada @ +2.5, or sharps are preventing a -3 or higher move. Either way, it's a good sign for Nevada backers.
Good Luck.
