Is Cal @ Nevada a trap game?????

[AlphaOmega]

Cal should easily handle this Nevada team, I do not understand why the line is so low (-3) I have a feeling that this is one of those trap games that will end up bitting people in the a$$ tonight. But being the degenrate gambler that I am I am going with CAL -3 ...

[jwbama23]

Its not a trap, Cal will kill them. Nevada has made a living killing lesser schools. A better coached team like Tedford's at Cal will win by at least 10. I would say more but it is at Nevada and the home fans will be loud and keep Nevada pumped but Cal will kill them.

[Uncle Harv]

Cal destroyed "Colorado" last wk. On paper, the Bears are at least 10 points better than the Wolfpack. But the games arent played on paper, they are played on grass. In the past 4 years, the only non conference game the Bears have lost is the slip up at Maryland. Besides that theyve dominated. Conversely, Nevada has not beaten a superior team early in the schedule during that time frame. Bears SHOULD roll them, especially since Nevada lost Lippincott, a huge part of their 3 headed monster running game. But betting is about what will happen, not what should. I am a Bears fan, and I can honestly say this is not a spectacular squad, its typically average. This is a look ahead game for Cal, playing Zona next week, and this is like Nevada's superbowl and they will play their hearts out in front of their fans. There is a reason why the oddsmakers opened the line at only -1 for CAL, when talent wise they are far superior. I would be careful here. If they cant stop the triple option because the D doesnt show up.....upset city. That said, I think Cal finds a way to win.

[hubie69]

I do like cal in this game, enough to put money on it. The line I think is very suspicious though.

[AlphaOmega]

Thanks for the feeback makes my play on Cal tonight a lot easier ...

[Bswitz32]

Just like you said if they can't stop it. I think they WILL stop it and Cal win by 8. Cal is the better team here and just like last nights Cin vs NCS game people over analyzed . This is the same. Don't be fooled!

BOL

[hubie69]

Excellent analysis by agharah1 in one of the other 100 posts about the cal/nev game thats worth a look.
Originally Posted by agharah1

You know why I like sports betting more than Wall Street trading? People actually police sports betting! I'm sick and tired of hearing about the great and powerful Colin Kapernick. Here are Kapernick's stats vs. major conference teams: 2009: @ ND 12/23 149 yds 2 INT 10 rushes 39 yards (35 - 0 LOSS) vs. Mizzou 17/28 146 yds 1 TD 13 rushes 59 yards 1 TD (31 - 21 LOSS) 2008: vs. Texas Tech: 23/34 264 yds 1 TD 1 INT 17 rushes 92 yards (35 - 19 LOSS) @ Mizzou: 17/31 152 yds 1 TD 8 rushes 71 yards 1 TD (69 - 17 LOSS) vs. Maryland: 24/47 370 yds 3 TD 2 INT 9 rushes 15 yards 1 TD (42 - 35 LOSS) Nevada has lost its last 8 games vs. ranked teams by an average of 27 points. This includes the aforementioned loss to "#23" Notre Dame who subsequently fired their coach because he couldn't coach defense. Yet they managed to shutout Nevada's "high powered offense." They do not fit the profile of a team capable of upsetting BCS conference teams. There is no evidence that Cal has ever overlooked Nevada, as Cal is 22-1-1 all time vs. the Wolfpack. Home field will not be as big a factor. Mackay Stadium has a capacity of approximately 30k, yet last season home attendance never exceeded 24k, even against major conference teams and instate rival UNLV. If anything, there should be a fairly decent contingent of Cal fans who made the relatively short drive up I-80 from the Bay Area and Sacramento for this game. Look, sometimes things aren't what they seem. But sometimes, they're *EXACTLY* what they seem. You cannot let some boogie man "sharp bettors" psych you out whenever you have a game to pick. I for one expect Cal to control this game from the opening kickoff and never trail. That's my opinion, that's what I'm putting my money on. Could I be wrong? Of course, its not impossible, but that's what money management is for to make sure you don't get wiped out on a fluke.

[jscott1586]

Good luck i think ill be on Cal -3 here as well

[UnderDog_Philip]

I don't understand the Cal -3 myself, I do think this is a trap game or at least they're making it seem like one, but I'm still picking the Bears with the OVER.

[GoggsViggs]

i was suspicious of the line at first too, but Cal should cover with its better defense.

[hubie69]

I think this game might be safer than the ECU/VT game but both appear to kinda be in the same both, trap wise. However, let us not forget THIS:

[bypp]

NC State also looked too good to be true last night at only -1.5

[homerbush]

I think you guys will realize after tonight that Nevada is better than you think.

[BookieOweMe]

I think you guys will realize after tonight that Nevada is better than you think.

then it will be an upset.

[Rixsaw]

Not 1 vote for Wolf so far ...

[kiln]

But the games arent played on paper, they are played on grass.

Not when Cal plays at home.

Speaking of which, Reno is just over the mountains from Berkeley. It's closer than L.A. (by almost three hours, depending on traffic). Expect a good Cal contingent tonight.

[ManBearPig]

I'll be at the game...I'm thinking we win a close one or lose by 7+. I think people are undervaluing us but that is to be expected because we've proven no reason not to. I don't know why more people aren't talking about the O/U. Neither of us has played anyone with a suitable defense and scored a ton of points. Although we like to score a lot of points doesn't 66 seem a little high. I'm thinking of playing the under...dumb?

[msj0001]

I don't know about Cal...Kaepernick for Nevada is pretty damn good, he had 161 rushing and 241 passing and 2 TDs last saturday...and he's completing over 70% of his passes on the season, I think I'm taking Nevada +3.5

[kiln]

I don't know about Cal...Kaepernick for Nevada is pretty damn good, he had 161 rushing and 241 passing and 2 TDs last saturday...and he's completing over 70% of his passes on the season, I think I'm taking Nevada +3.5

I'm not trying to talk you out of your bet--I've already made my position clear--but Nevada played Colorado State last week. One would expect Kaepernick et. al. to hang half a hundy on that squad. (CSU gave up 24 to Colorado for goodness sake)

[bradleysnyder]

i agree.i think they have it close to sway people into taking the home team

[kidkonggolf]

I agree...looks like a trap and hoping its nothing but, a linesmaker's error. GO CAL (-2.5) !!! BOL

[msj0001]

I haven't made my mind up yet I was just leaning Nevada, still might play cal though

[ACCBlitz]

Got Nevada +4.5 for .5 Units here

[kalamity85]

nevada does have a potent and experienced offense. looks like a shootout

[ExposingLines247]

I think oddsmakers dont know where to begin with a game like this so early on, two high octane offenses going at it. If Cal was home it would be a different story but its not. Nevada has alot of the same guys as last year so that pistol offense will cause problems. All that being said cal is the superior squad and i may have to take the bait tonight

[Joe_Shabadoo]

I understand the, as I've said so many times about this game now, caution being taken by people when just looking at the line.

But, has anyone really handicapped this game by actually watching these teams play? I mean: Have you guys really delved into this, or are just going by the line, or lines of thought along the lines of "...it's going to be loud in Reno...", or "...I heard that Kaepernick guy is really good..."?

Watching this defense for the past 6 six years, it's become a little ridiculous how the defensive unit has been managed. They've gone back & forth from trying to be a cover-3 team/4-man rush/man-under defense, but when they go to a trail technique it's really obvious how much of a talent and skill discrepancy there is.

Poor discipline and overall team speed (aside from Dontay Moch who gloats about his 4.25 that he supposedly can bust out) are glaring with this defense. Josh Mauga was probably the best fundamental player that's come through here since DeShawn Myles, but he's long gone now. Even having Duke Williams questionable for this game could really hurt the flow of the secondary.

The offense, yeah they throw up ridiculous numbers on the W.A.C., but I've seen their games when matched with upper-echelon universities; they become lost as the game goes on when they're unable to set up their 6-8-play tree out their base set, and all threat leaves their downhill attack. Kaep then is forced to start look downfield (though the emergence of Virgil Green has really helped underneath) and, suffice to say, he is not a pretty, proficient passer (like a poor-man's-Matt Jones/Uncle Rico side-arm combination).

In sumation, I think Cal is going to pull away, midway through the 3rd-quarter and Chris Ault is going to look like the most indignant man in the stadium yet again.

[sqvirrel]

It's a trap. Huge divergence on this game. Big money is propping up Nevada. Took the points and if the line keeps moving might take more but only because the ML is so low. My guess, Nevada wins outright.

[rwsmith]

Cal it is i like it too...see no reason not too!!!!

[falconticket]

I'm on Nevada. I like the 4 year qb. I see a repeat of last nights game with more scores. Just my opinion.

[Jimmydafreak]

Yes this is the classic double-reverse, backdoor, road-trip trap. Tread carefully my friend!!!

[SmackdownV]

Tonight for Nevada will be like a guys first week in Prison.

Butt Rape City.

Cal is going to DESTROY THEM.

Yeah.........

BUTT RAPE BY A LARGE INMATE!

[NFL49ers]

I think its a trap... Im on Nevada tonight, home dog.

[SmackdownV]

Fade Cal after the middle of the season.

To do so at the start is monetary suicide.

[jabo1234]

i agree its not a trap game but its because its in Nevada (elev. 4400). Cal (elev. 500). Playing at elevation makes a huge difference. that is why the line is so low

[Troutslayer]

I understand the, as I've said so many times about this game now, caution being taken by people when just looking at the line.

But, has anyone really handicapped this game by actually watching these teams play? I mean: Have you guys really delved into this, or are just going by the line, or lines of thought along the lines of "...it's going to be loud in Reno...", or "...I heard that Kaepernick guy is really good..."?

Watching this defense for the past 6 six years, it's become a little ridiculous how the defensive unit has been managed. They've gone back & forth from trying to be a cover-3 team/4-man rush/man-under defense, but when they go to a trail technique it's really obvious how much of a talent and skill discrepancy there is.

Poor discipline and overall team speed (aside from Dontay Moch who gloats about his 4.25 that he supposedly can bust out) are glaring with this defense. Josh Mauga was probably the best fundamental player that's come through here since DeShawn Myles, but he's long gone now. Even having Duke Williams questionable for this game could really hurt the flow of the secondary.

The offense, yeah they throw up ridiculous numbers on the W.A.C., but I've seen their games when matched with upper-echelon universities; they become lost as the game goes on when they're unable to set up their 6-8-play tree out their base set, and all threat leaves their downhill attack. Kaep then is forced to start look downfield (though the emergence of Virgil Green has really helped underneath) and, suffice to say, he is not a pretty, proficient passer (like a poor-man's-Matt Jones/Uncle Rico side-arm combination).

In sumation, I think Cal is going to pull away, midway through the 3rd-quarter and Chris Ault is going to look like the most indignant man in the stadium yet again.

Wolfpack homer here.

i gotta say, nice analysis.

Nevada's D is not very good, period. they give up the big play routinely. not only to equal or superior teams, but to EVERY team. this means Cal SHOULD score early and often.

the pistol offense can be effective. but Kaep lacks good touch on deeper passes. take away the run..........

it pains me to do it, and i hope i lose the money honestly, but i put money on Cal -2.5.