I would guess that the VT-ECU line movement was because some wiseguys probably think Va Tech has a lot of talent and they are going to be pissed off. Basically trying to go against the overreaction. Still, no matter how pissed off Va Tech is, 17 is a big number.
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Great stuff wal, there was a website that came out with a similar program unfortuntaely I can't find the site any longer it was on my last computer. This idea is a pretty smart move, I do it in the nfl and nba too get a guage on what the lines (imo should be). I don't use a program, but just stats, trends, history and what i know personally. Would be nice to hvae a system or computer to get help with that... Good stuff, i'd be very interested in following your thread and seeing how this workd..Comment -
My threads from 2008 and 2009 are available at Cappers Mall and here at SBR last season as well and they are my program plays for the most part. I just started posting the lines last year somewhere around mid-season though.
I wish I could translate the same criteria that goes into my CFB program into other sports at least the NFL where I am horrible. It would be too much work in basketball and baseball though due to the number of games daily.Comment -
Wal, are you only using stats from 2010? Or do you blend in any data from 2009 season?
Good luck this week.Comment -
Mr. wal, i agree something is up with the tech line, i got it +20, wish there was a bet i could take back, 20 pts is alot, believe this is the first time i didn't like getting so many pts....Comment -
Flight, many will disagree and that is fine but for me personally the only relevant data is current data. Yes there is something to be said for historical data and it certainly can play a role in evaluating specific situations but for the most part and especially for weekly plays I only use current data.Comment -
It is odd BigCat.
V-Tech has to be steamed over the first two games and there is a very good chance that ECU is a little overwhelmed with their start to the season so motivational factors will certainly come into play. Statistically speaking this line is hugely off, so why then?
Sometimes a crystal ball would be nice.Comment -
What makes you think that Hawaii are going to turn up on the road?
Like the thread. GL with it all.Comment -
Like the plays, NCST is a little worrisome with CIN getting their feet set, but at home should bode well for themComment -
This is a prime example between current situations vs historical trends. Obviously Hawaii has a less than stellar history playing on the mainland and playing them here is always a risky venture as may very well be the case in this game.
Hawaii is suspect at best against the run. If Colorado is commited to the run they should be able to move the ball against Hawaii which will eat up some clock time. Hawaii though has a very skill and fast-paced passing attack and should be able to take advantage of an untested as of yet secondary for Colorado to keep pace scoring wise.
Colorado probably isn't as bad as the dminating loss to Cal nor as good as the dominating win over Colorado St and they may win this game but I like the points. Saturday night I might look like a fool but today I am completely confident in this play.Comment -
what do you think about the unr game?Comment -
kanak, this isn't the answer you're looking for nor is it even a good reason but I have had some bad experiences with Nevada so I didn't even look into this game. It's dumb to write any team off and maybe I haven't totally written them off but they are in a serious time out.Comment -
hey wal,
i have a 7.5 point teaser that im thinking about for week 3 that looks like this:
East Carolina +27
Hawaii +18.5
Kentucky -17.5
Troy +4.5
how does that look? kentucky should still beat akron by 17.5 right?Comment -
Scarecrow, personally I think Kentucky wins by the actual spread so in the teaser scenario I absolutely think they are safe.
Good luck with this and all your plays.Comment -
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any ideas on friday nights game?Comment -
Kanak, my program suggest Cal should be favored by 10 points so that qualifies it as a play based just off the program. However it didn't make my final card due to some unknows that concerned me. This doesn't mean it's not a good bet by any means I just had a full card and chose some other games instead even though some of those games had things that worried which makes it all not make sense now that I'm talking about it.
Cal has a talented offense as does Nevada and Nevada does have experience and playing at home. I really don't think either defense is outstanding or anything and see this game could easily be well into the 70's. If I were playing it which I'm not, I would lean towards Cal and feel comfortable with the over.Comment -
I like Cal's Defense to be better than Nevada's defense. We all know both offenses can put up a bunch of points, so it comes down to defense and turnovers. Cal has has always lost the when they shouldn't lose, but this year I think they learn from that mistake and take this by what wal's program said -10.Comment -
good luck today! Lets hope for this ECU cover. Im thinking they could win outright but not putting any on ML just yet.Comment -
Hey Wal..
Good luck bud..
Hope you have a winning weekend!Comment -
BOL with your plays Wally. I will be pulling for you.Comment -
Wow……………..
I have had my share of bad days, I’ve even had losing days in the past using my prgram but I’m not sure if I have ever had a day this bad. Still one game pending but if it doesn’t win I will have gone 0-5 today and 1-6 for the opening week with my program.
ECU getting 17 and up 24-21 at the half loses and doesn’t cover.
Hawaii getting 11 and up 10-0 at the half loses and doesn’t cover.
Troy laying 4.5 and up 23-7 at the half loses outright.
Maryland was never really in the game and only momentarily looked like they might at least cover but didn’t.
If Fresno State doesn’t win by 5 then it’ll complete an 0-5 day.
This is why I NEVER try and sell anyone on a game. I couldn’t handle the guilt involved with having a day like today knowing I convinced someone to trust my judgment.Comment -
Cheer up Wal, your weekly picks are better than 90% of the people on this forum. Thats not me downing the forum, its just that alot of people here arent full blown dedicated cappers, & thats ok. Ive had a 2-2 day & 2-3 wkend... Good cappers always find a way to bounce back...
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and another thing, those picks were all solid (dont twist your arm), thats all that counts, you cant play the game for these teams...Comment -
aeshred, I appreciate the kindness. Days like yesterday happen and when they do it makes you wonder why bother. The truth is though that even those games that were easily covering at the half, they were games that had serious Red Flags and probably should have been avoided.
I hope to do a better job this coming week.
Good guys post in this thread and I appreciate everyone of ya.Comment -
Week 3 is over Wal, don't doubt yourself. Get em next week.Comment -
The Troy game killed me with the last second TD by the Blazers....and the late cover my the Gophers against USC....I wanted to go outside and drown myself. Freak plays....can't plan for this kinda thing....just keep at it and come back strong next week buddy! At least the Bucs rolled in the NFL today So I feel good inside at least...if not for the wallet after the week.
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Wal, was at my daughters softball tourney all day saturday. Looked at the scores at halftime (ECU & HAW.) and felt very good. saw the final scores and thought unbelievable. Wal, Maryland is GARBAGE, they beat navy with 11 minutes t.o.p. and less than 200 yds of offense against navy having the ball 48 minutes and gaining over 600 yds. Look to fade Maryland the rest of the way it was 1 of only 2 wins saturday. Lets re-load and fire again.Comment
