Best underdog play week 2

**hoop guru** · 09-07-10, 02:05 PM

I also like the under in this game. I am thinking the over/under is goin to be 45 and I like the under.

**sweethook** · 09-07-10, 02:12 PM

yea you right i dont like gt here, gl.

**hoop guru** · 09-07-10, 05:31 PM

Colorado +8.5
-Colorado may win this game. Colorado may be a faster team than CAL. More pressure on COlorado coach Hawkins to win. THis is Colorado's only game against the PAC10 this season and next year they will play in the PAC10. Any thoughts on this.

**hoop guru** · 09-07-10, 05:37 PM

UCLA +6
-Too many points for UCLA at home.

**fishmonger** · 09-07-10, 09:25 PM

I agree with you but I'm not sold on Turner Gill as a coach. I think he got lucky with Buffalo when Starks and Wiley were there. I mean all it takes to win the MAC is a good QB. And they had a good rb too. His last year at Buffalo they sucked and wiley was gone and so was starks. He could get out coached in this one.

**Jimmy Proffett** · 09-07-10, 09:42 PM

Just took a quick glance through all the games. I don't see how Tulsa is favored by 16-17 over Bowling Green. The Falcons only lost by 3 last week at Troy, which is a much better squad than Tulsa this season. This just looks like a game with all the makings of a back and forth shootout coming down to the wire. Everyone saw what Tulsa's D looked like (dogshit) on Sunday.

**hoop guru** · 09-08-10, 11:38 PM

It looks like I am the only that likes kansas this week. I also like Kansas +7.5 (-115) 1st half. Kansas last week did not cover the first half spread. ALso failed to cover the 2nd half spread. I am goin to hammer my book on this play.

Teaser play on this game.
Kansas +20
Kansas under 55

- This teaser is a lock

**ACCBlitz** · 09-08-10, 11:55 PM

Originally posted by hoop guru

Kansas +13.5
-The line opened at GT -12 and moved to GT -13.5. I was not impressed with GT's 41-10 victory in week one. GT's QBs really struggled with the passing game as Nesbitt was 1/6 for only 8 yards (one interception) and Washington was 1/2 for only 4 yards. Both completions were to Hill. GT lost their top receiver, Damerius Thomas (46 receptions for 1154 yards, 8 td) and top running back, Jonathan Dwyer (235 carries for 1395 yards, 14 td and a 5.9 average per carry). GT lost a lot on offense from a year ago. Nesbitt is a good running Qb but terrible with the passing game. Nesbitt had some bad games last year that GT won because of their running game. GT played against Clemson in 2009 and Nesbitt had a such a poor game passing (3/14 for 83 yards, 2 interceptions). GT won the game 30-27. This was a home game for GT. GT did rush for 301 yards in that game. GT defense is not really that good (gave up 27 or more points in 8 of the games). ANd they lost 2 starters (1st round pick Derrick Morgan, 12.5 sacks and hard hitting safety Morgan Burnett) to the NFL.

Kansas was solid against the run in 2009 especially at home and early in the season. Kansas allowed only one running back to gain over 100 yards when playing at home. Kansas defense allowed only 3.3 yards per carry avg in 2009. Kansas weakness was defending the passing game. Kansas allowed Nebraska to rush for 214 YARDS on 41 carries (Helu had 28 carries for 156 yards for Nebraska). Kansas was on a 4 game losing streak and was not playing well at this point in 2009. Kansas played horrible in week 1 because they got caught looking ahead towards #16 GT. Kansas is goin to play much better than they did in week 1. Defensively, Kansas played well in week 1 but the turnovers hurt them.

This is goin to be a close game. GT is overrated. I do not beleive that GT can blow out anyone on the road and especially playing in the midwest in a different time zone. Kansas is goin to score a couple of tds in this game. I think Kansas is capable of shutting down the option running game. If that happens, watch for Nesbitt to throw interceptions. IF forced to pass, GT is goin to struggle in this game and not cover the spread.

ANy thoughts on this game.

GL with that play. Do yourself a favor and don't bet too much though

GT easily covers -13.5. PS: Don;t worry about their passing game. True, Nesbitt isn't the best but he's capable. As for them having no WR - Stephen Hill says hello

.

**jimmymo** · 09-09-10, 12:41 AM

Originally posted by hoop guru

I am goin to hammer my book on this play.

Teaser play on this game.
Kansas +20
Kansas under 55

- This teaser is a lock

Your book will thank you...not because you are on the wrong side per se, but just that they will badly need action on Kansas to balance the action......GTech is getting bet like people have the Sunday newspaper...I like the contrarian approach....GL

**hoop guru** · 09-09-10, 12:54 AM

Kansas is goin to win this outright. Just watch what happens on saturday. GT backers are goin to be in disbelief. BElieve the public is wrong on this play.

**WorkHorse** · 09-09-10, 01:12 AM

OK my friend. North Dakota State beats Kansas and they are going to beat Georgia Tech because they can't pass the ball. If you don't need to pass....why pass? Did NDS pass? Unless Turner Gill is going to suit up at quarterback.....how is Kansas going to move the ball against a pretty good Tech defense?

Georgia Tech despite completing only 78 passes during 2009 went 10-2 in the regular season and won the ACC Title. With 15 starter returning, I would give careful consideration before I played Kansas.

Just a thought...................

**ACCBlitz** · 09-09-10, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by hoop guru

Kansas is goin to win this outright. Just watch what happens on saturday. GT backers are goin to be in disbelief. BElieve the public is wrong on this play.

Vegas must love you

**hoop guru** · 09-09-10, 04:27 AM

Originally posted by WorkHorse

OK my friend. North Dakota State beats Kansas and they are going to beat Georgia Tech because they can't pass the ball. If you don't need to pass....why pass? Did NDS pass? Unless Turner Gill is going to suit up at quarterback.....how is Kansas going to move the ball against a pretty good Tech defense?

Georgia Tech despite completing only 78 passes during 2009 went 10-2 in the regular season and won the ACC Title. With 15 starter returning, I would give careful consideration before I played Kansas.

Just a thought...................

Did you know that starting offensive guard Will Jackson and starting safety Cooper Taylor were declared highly doubtful by GT coach JOhnson. Also, defensive end Emmanual Dieke will be out with an arm injury. Ray Beno, a redshirt freshman may miss the game also. 2 starters out and now down to 13 starters. IT was WR D Thomas and RB Jonahaton Dwyer that made GT a very good team in 2009. GT defensive was not that great in 2009 as GT allowed 27 plus points in 8 of the 12 games. GT's top defensive tackle was drafted in the first round and he had 12.5 sacks in 2009.

Kansas is goin to use a spread offense against GT and they will run the ball on GT. GT is goin to have trouble with the spread offense. GT better be prepared to play in a different time zone and different climate. IF GT falls behind early in this game, it will force GT to pass which is weakness for them.

**Commission713** · 09-09-10, 04:41 AM

UTEP +19.5 @ Houston

Houston wants revenge for what happened last year in El Paso, and they'll get it. But I can't see them beating UTEP by 20 points. These teams typically play each other close, and Houston has a habit of playing Conference USA teams closer than they should on paper. I like the Miners to cover this large spread, especially if it keeps moving past 21 points. Both teams will score a lot of points in this one, so the over is another play to consider.

**hoop guru** · 09-09-10, 05:02 AM

For Kansas, center Jeremiah Hatch (a 2year starter at center) is going to start on saturday. He did not play last saturday. Coach Gill moved Hatch back atop the depth chart at center. Hatch will be at center and Sal Capra will be back at his left guard spot. This is goin to help kansas on offense.

**beefcake** · 09-09-10, 09:36 AM

Campbell +11.5 ...

**Crayzee** · 09-09-10, 11:14 AM

all dogs between +11 and +14 are almost automatic plays for me
i have no documented proof just always done good with them

**M.W.** · 09-09-10, 03:09 PM

Originally posted by hoop guru

For Kansas, center Jeremiah Hatch (a 2year starter at center) is going to start on saturday. He did not play last saturday. Coach Gill moved Hatch back atop the depth chart at center. Hatch will be at center and Sal Capra will be back at his left guard spot. This is goin to help kansas on offense.

Good stuff, guru. Also, Kansas is changing its QB for this game. Webb will start.

**Hammew** · 09-09-10, 03:40 PM

Turner Gill sucks, I don't know much about GT, but I know for a fact that Turner Gill is not a good head coach. Look at Buffalo last year with Gill at the helm.

**hoop guru** · 09-09-10, 06:13 PM

8 team parlay $50 to win $7500

1. Kansas +13.5 (Kansas failed to cover 1st half, 2nd half and game last week)
2. Florida Atlantic/Mich St under 56 (Mich St went over their total last week)
3. Florida St +7
4. Tennessee +12 (Tenn did not lose a home game by double digits)
5. Tennessee under 53 (both teams had shutouts and went over their totals by themselves)
6. Toledo/Ohio over 52.5 (both of the teams stayed under their total last week)
7. UCLA +6 (UCLA failed to cover last week)
8. Colorado ST +23.5 (failed to cover 1st half, 2nd half and game last week)

The dogs may cover the spread for the entire 60 minutes of their games. I would love to see that happen.

**nysmoneyman** · 09-09-10, 06:16 PM

Hawaii +3...BYU +1

**linedrivr** · 09-09-10, 06:25 PM

I understand you weren't impressed with GT's 41-10 win last week but what impressed you about Kansas 6-3 loss at home to a division 2 team?

**hoop guru** · 09-09-10, 07:08 PM

ITs a bad kansas offense that is goin to score on a bad GT defense. GT opponent rushed for almost 200 yards last week. IF SC State could put up 10 points on GT, Kansas score more than 10 points. Kansas is goin to run a spread offense that is to strength of the freshman qb of kansas. Kansas is goin to spread out the GT defense and also run on them in this formation. Kansas took their opponent lightly and it backfired. I think Kansas was looking ahead. Kansas still could have won that game last saturday. Defensively they played well. I like a team total in this game. I like GT under 31 for the game. I am predicting 2 GT touchdowns and maybe 2 field goals. Oddsmakers are overeacting with the line on this game. Spread opened Kansas +7 and jumped to Kansas +14.5. NOw the line is back down to 13.5. I like to know a stat that can really help to win. Kansas was a home team last week and failed to cover the spread for the game, first half and the 2nd half. And now kansas is home team again in week 2. I like to know what are the percentages that a home team that did not cover the spread for the game, first half and 2nd half and than comes back and covers the spread the following week in a home game. I like underdogs because they have an easy shot at covering the first half spread. I am taking Kansas as more of a system play. Kansas did not the first half spread last. And kansas also did not cover 2nd half spread. As a result, Kansas did not cover the spread for the game. Kansas was a huge 28 point favorites at home. NOw they are double digit underdogs. Kansas were huge favorites and now are huge home underdogs of a 2nd straight home game. I am goin to say the dogs end up covering a lot of times in the 2nd straight home game. Oddsmakers are doing strange things to the line of this game. Opened at GT -7 and jumped to -14.5 and now its at -13.5. Seems like artifical movement by oddsmakers and books. IF you doubt me, just take a look at teams with similar schedules where they are playing 2 straight home games. THis type of research is not easy. My prediction is that kansas easily covers the first half and the game spread. THey will have a halftime lead in this game. At no point kansas will be losing to the spread in this game. I would really be scared to lay 13.5 points and take GT.

**HawaiiFan** · 09-09-10, 08:29 PM

Originally posted by nysmoneyman

Hawaii +3...BYU +1

I agree with you here on the Hawaii play. Hawaii's offense shows that they can light it up. It won't matter if Army scores because Hawaii will keep the points coming even with a back up QB or not. I feel Hawaii's D will keep army from scoring 7's at least once or twice and Hawaii's O will pass scoring TDs all day. Just my gut feeling here. Feel free to fade.

**TheTeaser** · 09-09-10, 08:49 PM

I'm showing this line opened up @ GA Tech -11.5 and has moved up to GA Tech -13.5.. 95% of the public has bet GA Tech and the line moved accordingly..

If I had to side here, I like GA Tech beating Kansas by 2 TD's, but thankfully I feel there are some better choices out there this weekend!!

Good luck, guys!

**TheTeaser** · 09-09-10, 08:51 PM

Originally posted by HawaiiFan

I agree with you here on the Hawaii play. Hawaii's offense shows that they can light it up. It won't matter if Army scores because Hawaii will keep the points coming even with a back up QB or not. I feel Hawaii's D will keep army from scoring 7's at least once or twice and Hawaii's O will pass scoring TDs all day. Just my gut feeling here. Feel free to fade.

The way the line is moving here is keeping me away from this game.. I initially REALLY liked Hawaii +1, but I sat back and studied a little bit and realized the line is fishy and moving in the wrong direction... Same thing w/ the BYU game..

**homerbush** · 09-09-10, 10:54 PM

Originally posted by linedrivr

I understand you weren't impressed with GT's 41-10 win last week but what impressed you about Kansas 6-3 loss at home to a division 2 team?

North Dakota state is not division 2 they are 1-AA or in modern day chat FCS. Not that is matters for handicapping as they are still a level lower division, but please do not be ignorant.

**hoop guru** · 09-10-10, 02:10 AM

I guess that I am fading the public on kansas. I really like Hawaii +3. Army barely beat a bad Eastern Michigan team 31-27 thanks to a last minute touchdown in the 4th quarter. In that game, Army lost lost sophomore LB Nate Combs who is out indefinitely with a knee injury. Combs was replacing another injured LB Andrew Rodriguez. I agree that army is not goin to be able to stop or slow down Hawaii from scoring. Hawaii knows that they have to win the first game of two straight away games. After the army game, Hawaii plays at colorado which is not goin to be easy. If hawaii''s offense is clicking like it was in the 2nd half of the USC game, it should have no problems running up the scoreboard on Army. Hawaii is going to be able stop one-dimensional army. Eastern Michigan was able to run the football at will against Army. Eastern Micigan had 2 rbs with over 100 yards each. Priest had 26 carries for 142 yards for a 5.8 avg and 2 td. Gillett had 18 carries for 126 yards for a 7 yard avg. EMU had 3 turnovers and still almost won the game. In this game, Hawaii needs to stop Army on just a couple of possessions and that will allow hawaii to get a conofrtable lead.

**genericlabel** · 09-10-10, 03:16 AM

I also like Hawaii at +3 and BYU at +1.5. I am also going to take GT-- they should easily beat Kansas by more than 3 TDs. This game will be out of reach by half time. Other teams I am taking are -7 Oklahoma, -13.5 ECU, and Texas A&M -19.5.

**hawaiiboy396** · 09-10-10, 03:28 AM

I love hawaii +3 as well. Offense looked really good against USC

**BigMattM** · 09-10-10, 03:30 AM

Thanks you for the plays!