Thursday night college football is always a little crazy and this match-up is sure to produce some insanity of its own. Pittsburgh will be rolling into Utah where the Utes haven’t lost a game since 9/8/2007. Let’s take a look at the two teams.
Pittsburgh will be starting a sophomore QB under center but will be returning RB Dion Lewis who rushed for 1799 yards last season, 3rd best in the nation. However, Lewis and new QB Tino Sunseri may have a tough time getting things going considering they lost their starting C, LG, and RG but they are returning both starting Tackles one of which is on the watch list for best interior linemen. On Defense, Pitt returns starting DE Greg Romeus who racked up a total of 10.5 sacks last season but they will have to replace their other 3 D-Linemen. They also lose their MLB and both starting CB’s from last season. On a positive note, Pitt will be returning SS Dom DeCicco who will be on the Jim Thorpe Award watch-list this season. Pittsburgh has struggled against the Multiple Set Spread Offense allowing 305 Passing YPG in their 2 games against Cincinnati with their current DC. The Panthers’ running game seems to be a key component to their victories; Pitt averaged 191 RYPG in their victories as opposed to 144 RYPG in their losses.
Utah will also be replacing their starting QB with So. Jordan Wynn. Wynn started the last 6 games for the Utes including their bowl victory over Cal. In his 6 starts, Wynn racked up 1329 passing yards, 8 TD, and 4 INT while only completing 58% of his passes. Also returning for Utah will be both RB’s Matt Asiata and Eddie Wide. Wide rushed for over a 1000 yards last season following Asiata’s injury and managed to have 6 100 yard games and scored 12 TD’s. Utah will only be returning 4 starters on Defense and will have to replace their entire linebacking core, which will surely hurt them when trying to stop Dion Lewis. Defense was a strong point of this team last year, only allowing 20 PPG which ranked them 23rd in scoring defense. In Utah’s 6 ATS wins last season, they only allowed 89 Rushing YPG as opposed to 179 Rushing YPG in their 7 ATS losses.
Trends
Utah is 18-0 SU as a Favorite over the last 3 seasons but only 9-9 ATS
Utah is 2-5 ATS in September over the last 3 seasons.
Utah is 12-0 SU in Home games over the last 3 seasons and outscored their opponents by 17 PPG.
Pitt is 7-4 ATS in Road games over the last 3 seasons.
Pitt is 2-4 ATS in September over the last 3 seasons.
Conclusion: This is a game riddled with question marks. Can Utah stop the run? Can Pitt stop the pass with new CB’s? Can Pitt put pressure on Wynn? However, I think when it all boils down, you have an inexperienced QB going on the road to play a team who hasn’t lost a game at home in over 2 years. While I think Dion Lewis is going to have a great day on the ground, I don’t see Pitt stopping the spread offense of Utah and I think Utah walks out of here with a victory. Utah -3 is my lean here.
Pittsburgh will be starting a sophomore QB under center but will be returning RB Dion Lewis who rushed for 1799 yards last season, 3rd best in the nation. However, Lewis and new QB Tino Sunseri may have a tough time getting things going considering they lost their starting C, LG, and RG but they are returning both starting Tackles one of which is on the watch list for best interior linemen. On Defense, Pitt returns starting DE Greg Romeus who racked up a total of 10.5 sacks last season but they will have to replace their other 3 D-Linemen. They also lose their MLB and both starting CB’s from last season. On a positive note, Pitt will be returning SS Dom DeCicco who will be on the Jim Thorpe Award watch-list this season. Pittsburgh has struggled against the Multiple Set Spread Offense allowing 305 Passing YPG in their 2 games against Cincinnati with their current DC. The Panthers’ running game seems to be a key component to their victories; Pitt averaged 191 RYPG in their victories as opposed to 144 RYPG in their losses.
Utah will also be replacing their starting QB with So. Jordan Wynn. Wynn started the last 6 games for the Utes including their bowl victory over Cal. In his 6 starts, Wynn racked up 1329 passing yards, 8 TD, and 4 INT while only completing 58% of his passes. Also returning for Utah will be both RB’s Matt Asiata and Eddie Wide. Wide rushed for over a 1000 yards last season following Asiata’s injury and managed to have 6 100 yard games and scored 12 TD’s. Utah will only be returning 4 starters on Defense and will have to replace their entire linebacking core, which will surely hurt them when trying to stop Dion Lewis. Defense was a strong point of this team last year, only allowing 20 PPG which ranked them 23rd in scoring defense. In Utah’s 6 ATS wins last season, they only allowed 89 Rushing YPG as opposed to 179 Rushing YPG in their 7 ATS losses.
Trends
Utah is 18-0 SU as a Favorite over the last 3 seasons but only 9-9 ATS
Utah is 2-5 ATS in September over the last 3 seasons.
Utah is 12-0 SU in Home games over the last 3 seasons and outscored their opponents by 17 PPG.
Pitt is 7-4 ATS in Road games over the last 3 seasons.
Pitt is 2-4 ATS in September over the last 3 seasons.
Conclusion: This is a game riddled with question marks. Can Utah stop the run? Can Pitt stop the pass with new CB’s? Can Pitt put pressure on Wynn? However, I think when it all boils down, you have an inexperienced QB going on the road to play a team who hasn’t lost a game at home in over 2 years. While I think Dion Lewis is going to have a great day on the ground, I don’t see Pitt stopping the spread offense of Utah and I think Utah walks out of here with a victory. Utah -3 is my lean here.
