I thought I already had this thread up over here. Sorry I'm late. I will only post in week #1 as I have a another place I mainly post at, but I wanted you guys to see what I am partially on for week #1.
Here is what I have already laid money on so far and will be playing unless their is some drastic changes that take place. I don't normally like playing games so early whenever Fall camp has just started and injuries are almost certain to some extent, but I like the lines and depth on these teams and I think they'll play out alright. I have been researching the teams and conferences since back in April, so I am already prepared to be making plays this early. I will be giving write-ups on these plays the closer we get to opening weekend. I will be playing all plays for 2 UNITS. I have most of my FBS plays done, but I will be adding some good "FBS vs. FCS" plays as soon as the lines come out and I can make the plays. Looks like I might be making around 15 plays for the opening weekend whenever it is all said and done, but throughout the rest of the season I will be trying to limit my total plays to 7 or less.
USC -18.5 -- I was really surprised whenever this line came out under 20 points. I was expecting at least -24 and I really think Vegas has undervalued USC here. This game reminds me a lot of the 2008 opening game where USC went clear across the country to play a rebuilding Virginia team that did not have the talent to be on the same field as USC. I was expecting that line to come out at -28 and was surprised to see it at -19. USC won the game 52-7. Usually it is dangerous to bet against Hawaii playing on their home field, but I have found that to be more the case for teams that play them during the season or towards the end of the season. This is an opener and USC will have their sights full on this game. In fact, what would your attitude be if you had just been slapped with penalties for violations belonging to a player that left the program several years ago, the media has been crucifying the program you play for for the last several months, and most everybody has been talking about how you are down and it will take several years for the program to bounce back to being National Contenders again? If you can answer that honestly, then I think you have some indication as to what these players are feeling about this game and this season. In fact, I think the recent fight between Havili and Bryant on the team was nothing more than a bunch of players frustrated with all the shit they have had to endure in the offseason and they are ready to get on the field and prove it all untrue.
As far as Hawaii goes, they went 6-7 last season, but had only one quality win -- against Navy. Hawaii returns only 5 on offense this season and has to totally rebuild their offensive line. They return 7 on defense -- a defense that allowed nearly 30 ppg and 405 ypg. Looking at the personnel and talent level, they have no one that can stop the athletes USC has defensively, and they do not have the speed or power to put any kind of dent in USC's defense. This is a blowout in the making and I think Lane Kiffin is just the kind of coach to allow his team to score as many points as they can.
Nebraska -33 -- I have gone on the record this offseason as saying that I think Nebraska is overrated. This was a phenomena that came frequently through Callahan's years and I was able to make money fading the Cornhuskers. Pelini is a better coach than Callahan and he has proven it the last two seasons. However, last year's main reason for success could be summed up in one player -- Ndamukong Suh. Offensive lines had to double team, and sometimes even triple team Suh and he would still get through to make tackles. This year, Suh is gone. Nebraska's defense will still be good, but they will not be nearly as dominant as they were last season with Suh. I've found it interesting that everyone is saying the defense will be just as dominant if not more so because they still have Crick and Allen on the line. Guys, think about it, if offensive lines are double and triple teaming Suh, wouldn't that allow Crick and Allen to look better than they actually are? I think so, and I think that will be discovered this year. They are good players, but their production will likely be less this season because they will be attracting the attention Suh got last year from opposing lines. And, let's not forget about Nebraska's offense. What offense you ask? Precisely my point. Yes, I know they had some injuries to contend with, but what team doesn't? The fact is, their QB and offensive line stink. The offensive line will definitely be more experienced this season, but will they be good enough to make the blocks they were not making last year? We'll see. My guess is it will be a lot like last season where they performed really good against lackluster defenses, but sucked against good defenses. So, why I am I on them this game? Because Western Kentucky is just one of those teams that has no one who can stop anybody short of a high school athlete. They bring back 18 starters from last season, but that is off an 0-12 season. Tennessee kicked them 63-7 in the season opener. Nebraska is going to be a kind of team that will dominate weaker opponents this season and Pelini has to feed the monster that is the Cornhusker fan base by running up big scores in the early season. Anything less than a 40+ victory here will be read as a weakness to this program. I am really surprised this line didn't come out around -40, but I guess Nebraska's lack of offense last year kept the number down. Nebraska beat Florida Atlantic by 46 points in their opener and followed that up with a 29 point win against Arkansas St and a 55 point win against Louisiana. They can score big numbers against the lightweights and they will do so here against WKU.
Florida -33.5 -- Here's another team that fits the "USC mode" of "us showing the world that we are still contenders." All they have heard since the end of last season is "Tebow is gone and Florida will be down." Does anyone read a depth chart and analyze talent anymore? Starting QB, Brantley, is no corn flake and he will likely put up better passing numbers than Tebow did. They have the nation's top recruits at every position and have been stacking them up on the depth charts for the last 4 years. This team is VERY good and still needs to be in the National Championship talk for this season. Listen to Florida receiver, Chris Rainey's assessment of this team this season, "Rainey believes Florida might be better off without some of the guys who turned pro. He called this "the closest team I've ever been around." Why? "I guess we got rid of the prima donnas and the [selfish] cats. There are no rock stars this year, definitely not," Rainey said. "You can say cliques or [selfish] cats, stuff like that, worried about themselves, worried about trying to get to the NFL." This team is out to prove that they can win without Tim Tebow and it all starts with this game against Miami, OH. Yes, Miami, OH brings back 19 starters off last season's team, but that was a team that went 1-11. Let's face it, guys, they have no one that can stand up to compete against anything Florida has for 3 deep on the depth chart. Meyer loves to beat the spread and has proven that time and time again in the past. -33 points is not a big number for one of the most talented teams in the nation, carrying a chip on their shoulder, to cover.
Northwestern -3 -- It is usually a bad bet to bet against ANY SEC team at home in an out of conference game. I even said in an earlier thread that I would not play on Northwestern if they came in a favorite here. But the more I researched it and thought about it, the better the play appeared to me. I like betting on teams in the early weeks that have a sound offensive and defensive line. Northwestern is sound on offensive line and they look to be equal to last year on defensive line. Vanderbilt is totally replacing their offensive line, except for one player, and their defensive line could be worse than a year ago. If all skill players past this fact were even on both sides, the line differences would be enough to make a play on Northwestern, BUT Northwestern's skill sets averaged 26 ppg and 404 yards per game of offense while Vanderbilt's averaged 16 ppg and only 306 total yards of offense. There was not much difference in defensive production for either team. This tells me one thing I need to know -- Northwestern is more likely to score enough points to not only win the game, but cover the spread. Whenever you throw in the factor of Vanderbilt having to get use to the nuances of a new HC (which transpired only a couple of weeks ago) then it is just a plus factor for making Northwestern the play here.
Colorado -10 (GOY Line) -- I mentioned somewhere in another thread that I have bet this game for the last 3 years, took Colorado all three times, and won 2-1. Obviously, last season was a disappointment. In fact, the whole season was a disappointment until HC, Hawkins, decided to bench his son for good and play Hansen full time at QB. Cody Hawkins was always an accident ready to happen and the numbers last year show it as Hansen had a completion percentage of 56% and 7 interceptions and Hawkins had a completion percentage of 50% and threw 11 interceptions on about the equal number of attempts. Hansen clearly handles the ball better and has better success. Now that he is the starting QB, I expect better stability. Colorado also has potential to have their best running game in several years this year. Stewart has showed that he can gain necessary yards and last year the offensive line started to gel. This year, with all the experience coming back, the offense should be much more productive. The defense bringing back 7 starters and 26 lettermen should improve as well. Everything is looking up for Colorado this year. That cannot be said for Colorado State. Colorado State only brings back 4 starters offensively and will have to break in a new QB and rebuild their offensive line -- two factors that usually spell disaster early in the season. Defensively they do not look to drop much, but they have always been an average defense at best. This is a Rivalry game and anything could happen, but Colorado has the clear advantage over CSU in this game and I think they have the right QB at the helm this year to take advantage of the CSU weaknesses.
Southern Miss/South Carolina UNDER 47 -- There have been two things that have been consistent about South Carolina's team under head coach Steve Spurrier the last 5 years -- low scoring offenses and good defenses. With 9 starters coming back off an offensive squad that averaged 20 ppg and 7 starters coming back off a defense that allowed only 20 ppg, I will always like South Carolina in a game as an UNDER play where the TOTAL is 45 or better. I know Fedora is suppose to be an offensive guru, but he has his work cut out for him this game playing against South Carolina's staunch defense with only 3 offensive starters returning off last year's team. Even worse in my book, they have only 1 offensive lineman returning. They do, however, have 9 returning starters coming back on the defensive side of the ball. Defenses come around quicker than offenses in the start of seasons.
North Carolina/LSU UNDER 40.5 -- Both of these teams have shown great defensive ability and only average offensive ability. I expect this game to be a defensive battle and apparently Vegas has figured on the same thing since the TOTAL is right at 40.
UAB/FAU UNDER 54.5 -- I think this is likely a game that is flying under everybody's radar both ATS and O/U. Here's why I like the UNDER here: UAB lost their best offensive producer for the last 3 to 4 years in former QB, Joe Webb. Webb did everything for this offense. While he is being replaced by a talented athlete in David Isabelle, the word is that Isabelle may not be the sharpest tool in the shed. We can expect this offense to struggle while Isabelle has his growing pains. FAU has a problem with personnel -- they bring back only 2 starters from last year's team and only 8 lettermen!! Defensively though, they bring back 9 starters and 21 lettermen. Again, we have the disastrous mixture of a new QB working with a totally new offensive line. This one looks to soar UNDER the 54 mark.
Here is what I have already laid money on so far and will be playing unless their is some drastic changes that take place. I don't normally like playing games so early whenever Fall camp has just started and injuries are almost certain to some extent, but I like the lines and depth on these teams and I think they'll play out alright. I have been researching the teams and conferences since back in April, so I am already prepared to be making plays this early. I will be giving write-ups on these plays the closer we get to opening weekend. I will be playing all plays for 2 UNITS. I have most of my FBS plays done, but I will be adding some good "FBS vs. FCS" plays as soon as the lines come out and I can make the plays. Looks like I might be making around 15 plays for the opening weekend whenever it is all said and done, but throughout the rest of the season I will be trying to limit my total plays to 7 or less.
USC -18.5 -- I was really surprised whenever this line came out under 20 points. I was expecting at least -24 and I really think Vegas has undervalued USC here. This game reminds me a lot of the 2008 opening game where USC went clear across the country to play a rebuilding Virginia team that did not have the talent to be on the same field as USC. I was expecting that line to come out at -28 and was surprised to see it at -19. USC won the game 52-7. Usually it is dangerous to bet against Hawaii playing on their home field, but I have found that to be more the case for teams that play them during the season or towards the end of the season. This is an opener and USC will have their sights full on this game. In fact, what would your attitude be if you had just been slapped with penalties for violations belonging to a player that left the program several years ago, the media has been crucifying the program you play for for the last several months, and most everybody has been talking about how you are down and it will take several years for the program to bounce back to being National Contenders again? If you can answer that honestly, then I think you have some indication as to what these players are feeling about this game and this season. In fact, I think the recent fight between Havili and Bryant on the team was nothing more than a bunch of players frustrated with all the shit they have had to endure in the offseason and they are ready to get on the field and prove it all untrue.
As far as Hawaii goes, they went 6-7 last season, but had only one quality win -- against Navy. Hawaii returns only 5 on offense this season and has to totally rebuild their offensive line. They return 7 on defense -- a defense that allowed nearly 30 ppg and 405 ypg. Looking at the personnel and talent level, they have no one that can stop the athletes USC has defensively, and they do not have the speed or power to put any kind of dent in USC's defense. This is a blowout in the making and I think Lane Kiffin is just the kind of coach to allow his team to score as many points as they can.
Nebraska -33 -- I have gone on the record this offseason as saying that I think Nebraska is overrated. This was a phenomena that came frequently through Callahan's years and I was able to make money fading the Cornhuskers. Pelini is a better coach than Callahan and he has proven it the last two seasons. However, last year's main reason for success could be summed up in one player -- Ndamukong Suh. Offensive lines had to double team, and sometimes even triple team Suh and he would still get through to make tackles. This year, Suh is gone. Nebraska's defense will still be good, but they will not be nearly as dominant as they were last season with Suh. I've found it interesting that everyone is saying the defense will be just as dominant if not more so because they still have Crick and Allen on the line. Guys, think about it, if offensive lines are double and triple teaming Suh, wouldn't that allow Crick and Allen to look better than they actually are? I think so, and I think that will be discovered this year. They are good players, but their production will likely be less this season because they will be attracting the attention Suh got last year from opposing lines. And, let's not forget about Nebraska's offense. What offense you ask? Precisely my point. Yes, I know they had some injuries to contend with, but what team doesn't? The fact is, their QB and offensive line stink. The offensive line will definitely be more experienced this season, but will they be good enough to make the blocks they were not making last year? We'll see. My guess is it will be a lot like last season where they performed really good against lackluster defenses, but sucked against good defenses. So, why I am I on them this game? Because Western Kentucky is just one of those teams that has no one who can stop anybody short of a high school athlete. They bring back 18 starters from last season, but that is off an 0-12 season. Tennessee kicked them 63-7 in the season opener. Nebraska is going to be a kind of team that will dominate weaker opponents this season and Pelini has to feed the monster that is the Cornhusker fan base by running up big scores in the early season. Anything less than a 40+ victory here will be read as a weakness to this program. I am really surprised this line didn't come out around -40, but I guess Nebraska's lack of offense last year kept the number down. Nebraska beat Florida Atlantic by 46 points in their opener and followed that up with a 29 point win against Arkansas St and a 55 point win against Louisiana. They can score big numbers against the lightweights and they will do so here against WKU.
Florida -33.5 -- Here's another team that fits the "USC mode" of "us showing the world that we are still contenders." All they have heard since the end of last season is "Tebow is gone and Florida will be down." Does anyone read a depth chart and analyze talent anymore? Starting QB, Brantley, is no corn flake and he will likely put up better passing numbers than Tebow did. They have the nation's top recruits at every position and have been stacking them up on the depth charts for the last 4 years. This team is VERY good and still needs to be in the National Championship talk for this season. Listen to Florida receiver, Chris Rainey's assessment of this team this season, "Rainey believes Florida might be better off without some of the guys who turned pro. He called this "the closest team I've ever been around." Why? "I guess we got rid of the prima donnas and the [selfish] cats. There are no rock stars this year, definitely not," Rainey said. "You can say cliques or [selfish] cats, stuff like that, worried about themselves, worried about trying to get to the NFL." This team is out to prove that they can win without Tim Tebow and it all starts with this game against Miami, OH. Yes, Miami, OH brings back 19 starters off last season's team, but that was a team that went 1-11. Let's face it, guys, they have no one that can stand up to compete against anything Florida has for 3 deep on the depth chart. Meyer loves to beat the spread and has proven that time and time again in the past. -33 points is not a big number for one of the most talented teams in the nation, carrying a chip on their shoulder, to cover.
Northwestern -3 -- It is usually a bad bet to bet against ANY SEC team at home in an out of conference game. I even said in an earlier thread that I would not play on Northwestern if they came in a favorite here. But the more I researched it and thought about it, the better the play appeared to me. I like betting on teams in the early weeks that have a sound offensive and defensive line. Northwestern is sound on offensive line and they look to be equal to last year on defensive line. Vanderbilt is totally replacing their offensive line, except for one player, and their defensive line could be worse than a year ago. If all skill players past this fact were even on both sides, the line differences would be enough to make a play on Northwestern, BUT Northwestern's skill sets averaged 26 ppg and 404 yards per game of offense while Vanderbilt's averaged 16 ppg and only 306 total yards of offense. There was not much difference in defensive production for either team. This tells me one thing I need to know -- Northwestern is more likely to score enough points to not only win the game, but cover the spread. Whenever you throw in the factor of Vanderbilt having to get use to the nuances of a new HC (which transpired only a couple of weeks ago) then it is just a plus factor for making Northwestern the play here.
Colorado -10 (GOY Line) -- I mentioned somewhere in another thread that I have bet this game for the last 3 years, took Colorado all three times, and won 2-1. Obviously, last season was a disappointment. In fact, the whole season was a disappointment until HC, Hawkins, decided to bench his son for good and play Hansen full time at QB. Cody Hawkins was always an accident ready to happen and the numbers last year show it as Hansen had a completion percentage of 56% and 7 interceptions and Hawkins had a completion percentage of 50% and threw 11 interceptions on about the equal number of attempts. Hansen clearly handles the ball better and has better success. Now that he is the starting QB, I expect better stability. Colorado also has potential to have their best running game in several years this year. Stewart has showed that he can gain necessary yards and last year the offensive line started to gel. This year, with all the experience coming back, the offense should be much more productive. The defense bringing back 7 starters and 26 lettermen should improve as well. Everything is looking up for Colorado this year. That cannot be said for Colorado State. Colorado State only brings back 4 starters offensively and will have to break in a new QB and rebuild their offensive line -- two factors that usually spell disaster early in the season. Defensively they do not look to drop much, but they have always been an average defense at best. This is a Rivalry game and anything could happen, but Colorado has the clear advantage over CSU in this game and I think they have the right QB at the helm this year to take advantage of the CSU weaknesses.
Southern Miss/South Carolina UNDER 47 -- There have been two things that have been consistent about South Carolina's team under head coach Steve Spurrier the last 5 years -- low scoring offenses and good defenses. With 9 starters coming back off an offensive squad that averaged 20 ppg and 7 starters coming back off a defense that allowed only 20 ppg, I will always like South Carolina in a game as an UNDER play where the TOTAL is 45 or better. I know Fedora is suppose to be an offensive guru, but he has his work cut out for him this game playing against South Carolina's staunch defense with only 3 offensive starters returning off last year's team. Even worse in my book, they have only 1 offensive lineman returning. They do, however, have 9 returning starters coming back on the defensive side of the ball. Defenses come around quicker than offenses in the start of seasons.
North Carolina/LSU UNDER 40.5 -- Both of these teams have shown great defensive ability and only average offensive ability. I expect this game to be a defensive battle and apparently Vegas has figured on the same thing since the TOTAL is right at 40.
UAB/FAU UNDER 54.5 -- I think this is likely a game that is flying under everybody's radar both ATS and O/U. Here's why I like the UNDER here: UAB lost their best offensive producer for the last 3 to 4 years in former QB, Joe Webb. Webb did everything for this offense. While he is being replaced by a talented athlete in David Isabelle, the word is that Isabelle may not be the sharpest tool in the shed. We can expect this offense to struggle while Isabelle has his growing pains. FAU has a problem with personnel -- they bring back only 2 starters from last year's team and only 8 lettermen!! Defensively though, they bring back 9 starters and 21 lettermen. Again, we have the disastrous mixture of a new QB working with a totally new offensive line. This one looks to soar UNDER the 54 mark.
