Beavers vs. Frogs

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  • bmsOHST11
    SBR Rookie
    • 08-26-08
    • 42

    #1
    Beavers vs. Frogs
    Have not seen a lot of post on this game and was wondering what you guys thought!

    Here is my opinion on the game.

    DSI has the gm @ TCU -13

    Here's my take one the game.

    Lets give TCU a Home field of 3 pts (played in arlington)

    The main being in the passing game, Obv. TCU returns highly efficient QB ANdy Dalton, and most of an oline that looked stellar up until the fiesta bowl. TCU's WR corps is by far the strongest suit in Pattersons hand. They return over 80% of their catches and yrds, and boast three legitimate deep threats in Kerley, Young, and Hicks. Hicks is a huge homerun threat, over a 20 ypc last season and 6 td's on 23 catches. He is lightning in a bottle. Kerley is an over the top dynamic player and a decent route runner, he also entertains the wild frog package, a lot more two seasons ago than last yr but the possibility remains. The most impressive thing is all recievers in TCU's offense had ypc over 12 ,although no gawdy numbers in catches, it is a strong and very deep squad.

    Oregon state does return a experienced secondary but they are big, Dockery and Hardin at the corner both stand 6' 2". They are big and physical which will help in some cases but with hicks being such a deep threat this creates a recipe for a few over the top big plays. I forsee the bigger corners for oregon st having issues keeping the wr in check for the whole game and with ypc and yac like the TCU wr have that is going to be a huge problem.

    I think it will be interesting to see the speed threshold between TCU and a pac ten team. As for the running game. Oregon St seems retty weak up front. TCU lost their primary back but Tucker and Wesley saw significant action last year, its too early to tell the impact and exactly how they will be used as a two headed system instead of a 3-4 with turner and christian. OSU d-line is strong but its negated by the TCU line, who return 4/5. OSU linebackers are gutted and if TCU can get to the second level this game could be blown wide open.

    I See TCU's offense as one of the most efficient O's in the land. and a good 21 pts better than OSU defense.

    Now OSU off vs TCU defense.

    The rodger brothers are back in texas, they have never played the 4-2-5 and it should be interesting to see how a semi pro with a smaller back attacks the defense. TCU returns 7 ds including 3 stud safeties led by Teejay Johnson. TCU will deploy a bigger safety at rover Lutrell to spy on James rodgers reverses and Jaquizz getting loose of draws and stretches. I see this won on the line, TCU lost DE Hughes and Osu returns 4/5 on the line. The biggest loss on that side is Canfield at QB, Ryan Katz will be blitzed from nearly every where on the field, and this may be a baptism by fire. If they can keep the ball in the brothers hands and minimalize the mistakes..

    I see OSU's offense 10 pts better than TCU defense.

    Special teams

    Honestly I do pay attention to this but they are really even, Rodgers vs. Kerley in return game both a return studs. And avg over 20 per. Both return the kicker and punter, and both kickers were very reliable last year.

    Ill call this a wash...

    That leaves us
    TCU -14 covering the current spread of -13

    I am going to be putting a medium play on this game, and wouldnt be shocked eithr way maybe too much purple kool-aid

    What do you guys think?
    Last edited by bmsOHST11; 08-09-10, 12:57 PM.
  • iwantcougars
    SBR MVP
    • 09-29-09
    • 2156

    #2
    nice analysis, i was leaning OSU side, the reason i think osu covers the spread, is that TCU is going to play very conservative just enough to win the game, TCU has edge on the returning starters, D and Qb position. If the line stays in 12-13 range, i think tcu 1h has nice value
    Comment
    • bmsOHST11
      SBR Rookie
      • 08-26-08
      • 42

      #3
      Yeah I think the spread is at times kind of disrespecting a pretty good Ore St team, but then to have a QB make his debut against this style of a team worries me. But its hard to imagine anyone keeping the Rodger brothers in check! Good pt on TCU playing conservative, but with Patterson acknowledging they have to have style pts and could possibily make it to NC game, I think they may flex their muscle whenever they can.
      Comment
      • iwantcougars
        SBR MVP
        • 09-29-09
        • 2156

        #4
        yeah, i'm expecting that tcu will run the football heavily in 1st and 4th quarters. 1q they need to click and sync on the offense, since they cant commit errors, 4th quarter they'll defend their lead and play ultra conservative, i know the voters want them to make style points, but their 1st task is going undefeated and they cant take chances on OSU, so if they have a 15-18 lead on the 4th quarter, they'll focus on the victory, and probably OSU will score and will be able to cover the spread.

        OSU isnt worried about NC as TCU, they only want to go to the rose bowl (and their chances are on pac10 games). This line reminds me last year game vs USC which they were +20 and were 1 possession away for the upset (awesome 2nd half on that game)

        I think the line is about right to get tcu action, since tcu destroyed byu and byu destroyed OSU (but osu were bitter because they lost civil war and opportunity for roses).

        Both teams lost their bowl games, and i'm sure both coaches want to start 1-0
        Comment
        • bmsOHST11
          SBR Rookie
          • 08-26-08
          • 42

          #5
          Yeah, the more I talk about this game the more I want to stay away from it and just watch and enjoy the game, maybe a small play.

          You make some great points about protecting the lead, but I wonder how TCU will protect the ball and chew the clock bc their offense has changed quite a bit with such a good receiving group and Dalton as heralded as he is at this point.
          Comment
          • iwantcougars
            SBR MVP
            • 09-29-09
            • 2156

            #6
            Originally posted by bmsOHST11
            Yeah, the more I talk about this game the more I want to stay away from it and just watch and enjoy the game, maybe a small play.

            You make some great points about protecting the lead, but I wonder how TCU will protect the ball and chew the clock bc their offense has changed quite a bit with such a good receiving group and Dalton as heralded as he is at this point.
            Riley (osu) and patterson(tcu) both are good coaches with plenty of experience, and both are preparing for this game to be the winners, patterson by now knows osu can be a high paced, effective, dangerous with a change of momentus (turnover) in their favor even with soph katz at qb (which is not a lot experienced but early last season was battling cannfield for the starting job, so he knows the playbook and is more confident than a true starter), also TCU needs a good running attack, so they dont become one dimensional, and more eyes on them. Check virginia and clemson games, they didnt went "all in" with them, since it was early in the season, they played well enough to win both games

            I'm assuming TCU is going to get ahead on the game and later will calm down and OSU will sync their offense attack to katz style after the 2nd half. BOL to you, i still dont know which team to back, but my early leans is on the osu side, but i'm not 100% sold yet, if the lines goes over 14.5 i definetely will be on this game if goes lower than 13.5 probably will back off.
            Comment
            • BigOrangeTitans
              SBR MVP
              • 11-23-07
              • 4504

              #7
              I am all over the frogs at 13
              Comment
              • reverend
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 06-01-09
                • 880

                #8
                great analysis. i am with you on most of your thoughts

                i do think this will be a great game, maybe the best of the opening weekend!
                Comment
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