College Football Odds: Betting the 'Over'
Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard have moved on from Cincinnati where the duo was a big part of the Bearcats' sixth-ranked scoring offense in 2009. Incoming head coach Butch Jones should still have a solid corps on the offensive side of the ball, with Zach Collaros and Armon Binns taking over for Pike and Gilyard. The 'Cats are just one of three teams Chance has pegged for good 'over' bets this season.
Everyone loves betting the 'over.' People want to see touchdowns, and they want to see as many touchdowns as possible, preferably at the end of a tight 60-yard spiral or a 100-yard kickoff return.
Only one problem with that: The 'under' went 397-361 last year in college football. If you’re going to bet the 'over,' you have to be judicious about which teams to support.
The three biggest 'over' teams in 2009 were North Carolina State (10-2), Connecticut (9-3) and Oregon (9-3). As I pointed out earlier this week, it isn’t necessarily a good idea to hit up those same three teams again. If anything, their market value has peaked; I’ve even singled out the Wolfpack as one of my top three 'under' choices for 2010.
But I’m not going to use the same “buy low, sell high” methodology for ferreting out three fresh 'over' candidates – at least, not as my first criterion. A productive offense is a lot easier to quantify using statistical analysis, so my approach this time will be to cherry-pick teams with high offensive efficiency numbers, featuring a sizeable gap between offensive and defensive efficiency. After that I’ll see if there’s room for the market to trend 'over.'
Cincinnati Bearcats
This is a particularly special case. First of all, the Bearcats were outstanding last year, mowing through the regular season at 12-0 (6-6 ATS) before getting chewed up by the Florida Gators at the Sugar Bowl. Cincinnati finished the year with the No. 4-ranked offense according to Brian Fremeau’s trusty efficiency ratings; the defense, on the other hand, ranked No. 60.
A potent combination to be sure, but the betting odds didn’t budge. The 'over' squeaked out a profit at 7-6 thanks to Florida’s 51-24 romp at the Sugar Bowl. This was after Brian Kelly had announced his departure to take the head coaching job at Notre Dame. He’ll be replaced by Butch Jones, and this is where things get interesting. Jones also replaced Kelly at the helm of the Central Michigan Chippewas in 2007. Here’s what happened ('over' records shown):
CMU 2006: 7-6
CMU 2007: 9-2-1
I like the parallel. Jones is taking over a team with plenty of firepower and a serious lack of depth on defense, and with Kelly moving on to South Bend, the betting market should be a lot softer for the Bearcats this year.
Brigham Young Cougars
No coaching issues in Provo, where Bronco Mendenhall is back for a sixth season after five straight trips to the Las Vegas Bowl. But there are some major turnover issues for Mendenhall and the Cougars this year. First, let’s look at how the 'over' has fared during his tenure.
BYU 2005: 6-3-1
BYU 2006: 8-4
BYU 2007: 4-7
BYU 2008: 6-5
BYU 2009: 7-5
The dip in 2007 can be blamed on the Cougars defense. They allowed 225 points that year, compared to 254 in 2008 and 260 in 2009. The 2007 season was also QB Max Hall’s first as a starter, but he excelled right away thanks in part to a strong offensive line. That line is once again BYU’s strength going into 2010. The defense, on the other hand, has a number of holes to fill. This is after they finished No. 51 in defensive efficiency last year; the offense was No. 13. I see the Cougs outperforming expectations on offense and sinking even further on the other side of the ball.
Rice Owls
I’m only cheating a little with this pick. The Owls were ranked No. 108 in offensive efficiency last year and No. 107 on defense, but the defense was so awful that the 'over' went 8-4. I expect the defense to continue to suffer in the wild Conference USA. However, the Rice offense is due for a rebound after getting plowed under by injuries in 2009. Check out the “points for” since coach David Bailiff took the reins:
Rice 2007: 377
Rice 2008: 499
Rice 2009: 219
That output should recover nicely this year. The offensive line is a year older and wiser, and new co-ordinator David Beaty is committed to keeping the no-huddle spread offense – an important consideration when picking the 'over.' More plays in less time equals more points; the 'over' is 27-8 since Bailiff took charge and showing no signs of market fatigue. All the more reason for handicappers to shop the mid-majors.
Tony Pike and Mardy Gilyard have moved on from Cincinnati where the duo was a big part of the Bearcats' sixth-ranked scoring offense in 2009. Incoming head coach Butch Jones should still have a solid corps on the offensive side of the ball, with Zach Collaros and Armon Binns taking over for Pike and Gilyard. The 'Cats are just one of three teams Chance has pegged for good 'over' bets this season.
Everyone loves betting the 'over.' People want to see touchdowns, and they want to see as many touchdowns as possible, preferably at the end of a tight 60-yard spiral or a 100-yard kickoff return.
Only one problem with that: The 'under' went 397-361 last year in college football. If you’re going to bet the 'over,' you have to be judicious about which teams to support.
The three biggest 'over' teams in 2009 were North Carolina State (10-2), Connecticut (9-3) and Oregon (9-3). As I pointed out earlier this week, it isn’t necessarily a good idea to hit up those same three teams again. If anything, their market value has peaked; I’ve even singled out the Wolfpack as one of my top three 'under' choices for 2010.
But I’m not going to use the same “buy low, sell high” methodology for ferreting out three fresh 'over' candidates – at least, not as my first criterion. A productive offense is a lot easier to quantify using statistical analysis, so my approach this time will be to cherry-pick teams with high offensive efficiency numbers, featuring a sizeable gap between offensive and defensive efficiency. After that I’ll see if there’s room for the market to trend 'over.'
Cincinnati Bearcats
This is a particularly special case. First of all, the Bearcats were outstanding last year, mowing through the regular season at 12-0 (6-6 ATS) before getting chewed up by the Florida Gators at the Sugar Bowl. Cincinnati finished the year with the No. 4-ranked offense according to Brian Fremeau’s trusty efficiency ratings; the defense, on the other hand, ranked No. 60.
A potent combination to be sure, but the betting odds didn’t budge. The 'over' squeaked out a profit at 7-6 thanks to Florida’s 51-24 romp at the Sugar Bowl. This was after Brian Kelly had announced his departure to take the head coaching job at Notre Dame. He’ll be replaced by Butch Jones, and this is where things get interesting. Jones also replaced Kelly at the helm of the Central Michigan Chippewas in 2007. Here’s what happened ('over' records shown):
CMU 2006: 7-6
CMU 2007: 9-2-1
I like the parallel. Jones is taking over a team with plenty of firepower and a serious lack of depth on defense, and with Kelly moving on to South Bend, the betting market should be a lot softer for the Bearcats this year.
Brigham Young Cougars
No coaching issues in Provo, where Bronco Mendenhall is back for a sixth season after five straight trips to the Las Vegas Bowl. But there are some major turnover issues for Mendenhall and the Cougars this year. First, let’s look at how the 'over' has fared during his tenure.
BYU 2005: 6-3-1
BYU 2006: 8-4
BYU 2007: 4-7
BYU 2008: 6-5
BYU 2009: 7-5
The dip in 2007 can be blamed on the Cougars defense. They allowed 225 points that year, compared to 254 in 2008 and 260 in 2009. The 2007 season was also QB Max Hall’s first as a starter, but he excelled right away thanks in part to a strong offensive line. That line is once again BYU’s strength going into 2010. The defense, on the other hand, has a number of holes to fill. This is after they finished No. 51 in defensive efficiency last year; the offense was No. 13. I see the Cougs outperforming expectations on offense and sinking even further on the other side of the ball.
Rice Owls
I’m only cheating a little with this pick. The Owls were ranked No. 108 in offensive efficiency last year and No. 107 on defense, but the defense was so awful that the 'over' went 8-4. I expect the defense to continue to suffer in the wild Conference USA. However, the Rice offense is due for a rebound after getting plowed under by injuries in 2009. Check out the “points for” since coach David Bailiff took the reins:
Rice 2007: 377
Rice 2008: 499
Rice 2009: 219
That output should recover nicely this year. The offensive line is a year older and wiser, and new co-ordinator David Beaty is committed to keeping the no-huddle spread offense – an important consideration when picking the 'over.' More plays in less time equals more points; the 'over' is 27-8 since Bailiff took charge and showing no signs of market fatigue. All the more reason for handicappers to shop the mid-majors.