Advice: Should I target a specific conference (New to CFB)

**THE PROFIT** · 07-10-10, 09:03 AM

Focusing on one or two conferences works best in college basketball. Because there are SOOOO many games, you can have plenty of wagering opportunities sticking with a couple conferences & focusing on those mainly.

A great example for instance is the Sun Belt conference. The SunBelt Champions are the ETSU Bucs from right here in my hometown. Their games & all others are not lined in Vegas all season, no one knows who they are or cares, but when conference tourneys roll around all have a line on them. If you have kept up with these teams during the regular season now you have an opportunity to pound the fukin books because they have no idea how to do it.

As far as college football, opportunities are everywhere in every conference. DOGS, DOGS, DOGS!!! Rivalry games, new head coaches, tons of angles if you know what to look for. I live for college football.

As far as big plays, I do tend to stick to conferences I know the best and teams I know the best, but if I have an angle or a even a gut feeling I feel very strong about, I'll go large on any conference or any team.

I will have a thread for college & NFL for all those who give a shit!

**hoopster42** · 07-10-10, 09:13 AM

you should be able to follow and bet every conference

**THE PROFIT** · 07-10-10, 09:18 AM

Originally posted by hoopster42

you should be able to follow and bet every conference

in college football yes, but someone who bets smart doesnt have to bet every fukin game. Pick your spots & be successful

**remmy358** · 07-10-10, 09:20 AM

best bet is tossing a coin

**THE PROFIT** · 07-10-10, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by remmy358

best bet is tossing a coin

At times, i would have to agree

**THE PROFIT** · 07-10-10, 09:21 AM

When in doubt, take the DD Dog & carry on

**pdx107** · 07-10-10, 09:24 AM

It can help to focus on a conf or two, usually smaller conferences ie WAC/MAC
as noted this is even more true in basketball

**pats3peat** · 07-11-10, 11:37 PM

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

Focusing on one or two conferences works best in college basketball. Because there are SOOOO many games, you can have plenty of wagering opportunities sticking with a couple conferences & focusing on those mainly.

A great example for instance is the Sun Belt conference. The SunBelt Champions are the ETSU Bucs from right here in my hometown. Their games & all others are not lined in Vegas all season, no one knows who they are or cares, but when conference tourneys roll around all have a line on them. If you have kept up with these teams during the regular season now you have an opportunity to pound the fukin books because they have no idea how to do it.

As far as college football, opportunities are everywhere in every conference. DOGS, DOGS, DOGS!!! Rivalry games, new head coaches, tons of angles if you know what to look for. I live for college football.

As far as big plays, I do tend to stick to conferences I know the best and teams I know the best, but if I have an angle or a even a gut feeling I feel very strong about, I'll go large on any conference or any team.

I will have a thread for college & NFL for all those who give a shit!

thanks this is a perspective i hadnt seen yet. Very good point, maybe this is a better strategy in CFB and i should kinda try to follow every conference, but while still focusing more of my efforts on the smaller ones. It will probably help me in the long run like you said it is normal to follow the whole league - do you all agree?

ill definitely stick to the smaller confs strictly in CBB, i think that will be pretty profitable possibly like u said

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

in college football yes, but someone who bets smart doesnt have to bet every fukin game. Pick your spots & be successful

yeah agreed

Originally posted by pdx107

It can help to focus on a conf or two, usually smaller conferences ie WAC/MAC
as noted this is even more true in basketball

yeah i just copied someone who was like 'they cap wac/mac/sun belt' so i was like k im gonna focus on those
Do you do this in college basketball or both?

**THE PROFIT** · 07-11-10, 11:52 PM

The whole thrill of college football for me is watching every game I can & finding value in big dogs which are usually in small conferences or small conf playing big conf, so I follow everything about CFB.

CBB on the other hand, there's games every fukin night, half their season is conf & half non-conf, so many teams, so many games, you have to narrow down your focus or you'll be running in circles.

**THE PROFIT** · 07-11-10, 11:53 PM

also, in coll hoops, totals are a great thing to focus on

**ronjon619** · 07-12-10, 01:51 AM

Originally posted by Flying Dutchman

that one turn you on? Texas, bama and the rest of the top 5 will most likely win / cover their road games. Their spreads will usually be in the 14-20 range. That's just top 5. You will get very attractive spreads from superior teams when they travel. Washington at lets say Oregon State. That will be maybe -3.5.

Laugh all you want.

**BigdaddyQH** · 07-12-10, 08:25 AM

If you are going to use an example, use an accurate one. Oregon State is at Washington this year, and Washington is -4 on the futures. Using the Pac 10 for an example, Oregon is the ONLY team that is favored in away games on the future lines. They are favored by 3 at Cal and at Oregon State. In the Big 12, Oklahoma and Nebraska are favored in EVERY game they play. Texas is favored in every game except two, the OU game and the Nebraska game. In the Big 10, Ohio State is favored in every game. Iowa is favored in every game except one, that being the Ohio State game. The SEC's Alabama is favored in every game they play. Florida is favored in every game except one, the Alabama game. So you can see how this game is played. The close conferences, like the ACC, siply favor the home heams. IN the ACC, Va. Tech is -4 vs Ga. Tech, but +3 at UNC and +2 at Miami. UNC is -4.5 vs Ga. Tech, but +2 at Miami and +1 at Florida State. Tech is -3 vs Miami. Miami is -4 vs Florida State. As far as Top 5 teams covering away games, Alabama covered 3 out of 4. Texas covered 3 out of 6. Boise State covered 4 out of 6. Florida covered 2 out of 4. Ohio State covered 2 out of 4. So, the top 4 went 14-10 ATS on the road. Not bad at 58%. Ofcourse, the trick is to figure out the Top 5 teams, which can change on a regular basis.

Remember one other thing. Whether they want to admit it or not, 85% of the football amblers are LOSERS, so you are getting a lot of information from losers. No one will ever admit to being a loser, which is just human nature, but human nature does not count when other people are taking your money. You do NOT play against the book. You play against other people. The book just acts as an exchange for you to place your wagers and charges you a fee for their service.

**ronjon619** · 07-12-10, 08:34 AM

Originally posted by ronjon619

Washington at lets say Oregon State. That will be maybe -3.5.

hypothetical my fellow loser.

**pats3peat** · 07-12-10, 05:17 PM

Originally posted by THE PROFIT

also, in coll hoops, totals are a great thing to focus on

word alright, anyone got tips on this bad boy^ (totals)

**pats3peat** · 07-12-10, 05:19 PM

thats definitely an uncommon view ronjon (road fav value), the reason he was laughing was because he thought u were sarcastic probably
since everyone says "home dogs is where the value is at" and rightfully so probably if you look at past success. But yea im sure road teams can get undervalued as well, but the popular teams tend to get overvalued usually.. but youve had success with road favs?

**THE PROFIT** · 07-12-10, 05:46 PM

get on the totals early, the day before when they are released. CBB totals can move up to 10 points in a matter of minutes, so that shows you there's no sharp open lines. They are all weak & the sharps drive them early.

As far as the teams, you just have to use some common sense, & the books really try to bait you in CBB. watching line movement is most important IMO on CBB sides

**james4512** · 07-12-10, 06:55 PM

you should follow whatever conference televises most in your area. This allows you to watch a lot of games and you will learn about teams strengths and weakneses and this will allow you to make HUGE money when the books are way off on a line.

**Flying Dutchman** · 07-12-10, 10:19 PM

If road favs made money year-in year-out then the betting public would be riding around in limos...

...and bookies in broke-ass Yugos.

But go for it, it's your money.

**BIGDAY** · 07-12-10, 11:30 PM

If you're looking for a larger conference, try the Big Ten. I find these teams more predictable for some reason. I always track my succcess by conference to my model. Thus, I may weigh more units on a more successful conference that my model is set up for. For the last three years, the Big Ten has been my most profitable. I would play around with all conferences first, with out laying money on them. You may find that you have a nack for one or two. Just a thought.

Best of luck!

**pats3peat** · 09-09-10, 10:37 AM

the profit ill be looking forward to your thread, do you have writeups? Great posts

Bigday i will check that out. Why do you think they have been more predictable and do you think they will be this year