Pags' Plays 11/17

[pags11]

imgv,

much appreciated bro...

kid,

hopefully you can look through that and if you have any questions feel free to PM me...

masr,

that's pretty much how I see the Kentucky vs. Georgia game as well...BOL to you...

stump,

thanks man...GL to you as well...

alexda,

good to hear we will be on a couple together...thanks and GL to you too...

onlooker,

it wouldn't be the same thread each week if you didn't come in and tell me you were against me in at least one play...

[dudefrompa]

Yea, dude. Those two pics, WOW!!! I mean what else is there to say. I forget all about football when I see something like that. Thanks.

I'm on

Kansas St +8
Cinci +7
Maryland +8
Nc State +7
Northwestern +14

You and I have five same plays. Let's do this!!!

[bmac]

just wanted to say good luck Pags. Hope its a great week.

[Checkerboard]

+65.5 points!

thanks pags.

[mark wahlberg]

thanks imgv 4 the link good man

[mark wahlberg]

pags do you wager on the nba

[Patrick McIrish]

Pags good luck this week sir, on the Cincy and Kentucky games with you, not against you on any of them. Whew!

[DrLuck]

hope you have a big week pags

[austintx05]

good luck pags

[rjt721]

over/ under for the shark sticking around this forum before he loses his entire bankroll: 3.5 weeks

any takers?

Give me the under for the max.

Good luck this week pags.

[awhitejackson]

Like all your plays but one..Maybe a little biased here but Cincinnati is going BIG TIME.

[pags11]

rjt,

agreed...GL to you as well this week...

awhite,

maybe a tad bit biased...lol...GL to you...

[loserii]

Well I like West virgina myself however this site I have been using likes cinncy which scares me because they have been solid.

[Gene24]

Pags- goodluck this week what do you think about OSU - 4 at mich?

[pags11]

Hello Board,

Here are my plays for the week:


Kentucky +8

One has to wonder how much Georgia has left in their emotional tank coming into this game. I also think that Kentucky is starting to get healthy, which was a problem for them during the middle point of the season. Kentucky will have its hands full with RB Moreno, as he’s one of the hottest running backs in the country. As I’ve stated earlier this season, Kentucky employs a bend but not break philosophy on defense. They will need to do so against Georgia this week. I anticipate them loading the box a bit, leaving the game in the hands of Georgia quarterback Stafford. I do think Kentucky’s offense is starting to click once again. QB Andre Woodson has most all of his weapons now healthy (with the exception of RB Rafael Little who’s questionable, but Locke has still been running well. With Tamme, Lyons, Johnson and Burton out in pass patterns, this makes Kentucky’s offense very difficult to defend. I’m just not sure that there’s six points difference between Kentucky and Auburn right now, especially since I like this situational spot with Kentucky. I’ll take Kentucky plus the points in this game.


Kansas St. +8

It’s amazing how two weeks can change things so dramatically. What you have to notice about Kansas St. is that they are a very strong home team and a very suspect road team. They catch Missouri at home this week, a week before the big showdown between Missouri and Kansas. I’m not sure how much of the tape between Missouri and Texas A&M you got to watch, but Missouri’s defense is starting to look like the Missouri defense of old. It’s important that Kansas State commits to the running game early, as I think Prince has a tendency to get a bit pass happy. Look for an inspired performance from a once again underrated Kansas State squad in this game. QB Josh Freeman will have to make good decisions and distribute the ball to his variety of playmakers, led by wide receiver Jordie Nelson. Slowing down Chase Daniel and crew will be a tough task, but I do like how Kansas State’s team speed on defense matches up with Missouri’s offense. Look for Kansas St. to attempt to contain Missouri’s passing game first and try to get them in some third and long situations. The Manhattan crowd will be fired up and should help the Kansas State stay fired up deep into the fourth quarter. It’s Kansas State and the points for me again here.


Cincinnati +7

I was extremely impressed with Cincinnati’s effort last week against Connecticut. While I think West Virginia presents more of a challenge for them this week, I do think they have the team speed on both sides of the ball to give West Virginia a very good game this week. Head Coach Brian Kelly is one more underrated coaches in the entire country and I think he will have his team extremely motivated in this classic Big East tilt. It’s imperative that QB Ben Mauk make good decisions in this game, taking what the defense will give him. He is extremely mobile which should help him against West Virginia’s pass rush. It’s also going to be important that the Cincinnati receivers hold onto the football as I’ve seen them have some trouble with drops occasionally. The Cincinnati defense must focus on slowing down running back Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, as they are the key to the West Virginia offensive attack. One important thing to note is that Cincinnati has one of the best punters in the country and field position could play an important role in this game. Look for a close game deep into the fourth quarter. I’ll take Cincinnati and the points here.


Minnesota +13.5


I hear all this talk about how Minnesota made the wrong decision firing Glenn Mason and how Tim Brewster is such a terrible coach. I beg to differ as I think Mason’s time was running out in Minnesota anyway, and the bowl game disaster just expedited that process. A lot of people laughed at Greg Schiano too when he took over the Rutgers football program and we all have seen the progress they have made. QB Adam Weber is only a freshman and is a very dynamic player. He possesses dual threat capability and has become more accurate as the season has progressed. Wide receivers Ernie Wheelright and Eric Decker are playmakers as well and I think they have the ability to stretch the Wisconsin defense in the game. Wisconsin is coming off a very emotional victory against Michigan and could suffer a bit of a letdown heading into this game. It’s important to remember that running back P.J. Hill is a bit banged up still and back-up running back Lance Smith isn’t allowed to travel to road games due to a suspension he received at the beginning of the year. I’ve also read reports that have quarterback Tyler Donovan listed as questionable for this game. This is also a rivalry game and games between these two often end up very close. I’m going with Minnesota and the points once again.


Maryland +8


What impressed me most about Maryland’s performance last week’s was the play of young quarterback Chris Turner. He made excellent decisions and was able to get good protection from his line. A big reason for the time to throw was due to the play of running back Lance Ball. He ran with great vision and showed good bursts of speed. If fellow running back Keon Lattimore isn’t able to go this week, I anticipate him carrying the load once again. Turner will look to get the ball to his talented receiving corp., led by Darius Heyward-Bay. Maryland’s defense did an excellent job stopping the run last week and if they can do that this week it should make things very difficult for the Florida State offense to sustain drives. Drew Weatherford is listed as probable this week, but he is coming off a concussion that he suffered in a game last week against Virginia Tech. I think Ralph Freidgen has done a great job with his team this year, especially with his game plans. Another important thing to note is that Maryland is one win away from becoming bowl eligible. Expect a close, hard fought game in this one. I’ll take Maryland and the points and take my chances.


N.C. State +7

I’m really impressed with how Tom O’Bien continues to have his team play inspired football each week. It’s apparent to me that he’s one of the top coaches in the country, and I think far less people doubt his decision to move to N.C. State from Boston College. The success of the team has been keyed by the play of quarterback Daniel Evans and running back Jamelle Eugene. Evans is managing the game efficiently and is keeping his team in ball games by learning to take what the defense gives him. Eugene runs hard every play and is also very skilled at catching the ball out of the backfield. The North Carolina defense will need to game plan for Wake wide receiver Kenny Moore. Moore is quarterback Riley Skinner’s favorite target and N.C. State will attempt to double team him or roll coverage’s his way. Both of these coaches are very familiar with each other and expect a bit of a chess match here. If N.C. State can keep this close into the fourth quarter, they will have a chance to become bowl eligible (which no one would have thought was possible five weeks ago). It’s N.C. State and the points for me here.

Northwestern +14

I’ve read this week that even though Northwestern is bowl eligible that they will most likely still have to win one more game or get shut out of bowl season, due to the lack of bowl tie-ins from the Big 10. That being said, Illinois is coming off a huge emotional win against Ohio St. last week, one in which head coach Ron Zook was in tears after the game. Northwestern’s running back Tyrell Sutton, is now finally fully healthy and is running very hard with great results. This has taken some of the pressure of quarterback C.J. Bacher. With Sutton being back, Bacher will only be asked to manage the game, whereas earlier in the year he was asked to carry a majority of the load. Northwestern will need to attempt to contain running back Rashard Mendenhall, which will be a difficult task. Even though Juice Williams played very well last week, I still think Northwestern has to try to stop the run first. Efficiency on third down and moving the chains will need to be the focus of the Northwestern attack. If they can do that, they can keep themselves in the game. I’ll take Northwestern and the points here and hold on.

Good luck to all.

pags11

[pags11]

gene,

thanks...regarding the OSO vs. Michigan game, I have no real opion...GL to you...

[Cougar Bait]

pags,

No problem. Unproven egomaniacs who have bad grammer and can't spell are my specialty. GL this week and nice write-ups again. On Maryland and Cincy with you, but had to take Georgia with a small play. I've won too much with them and after a narrow win last week with Kentucky barely covering against Vandy I have to go with the Dawgs this week. Couldn't pull the trigger on Northwestern or Minnesota, but I have a feeling they are smart plays. Especially Northwestern.

[taurus]

I've incorporated all of your plays into my card this week, except Minnesota.
Best of Luck and keep up the good work.

[pags11]

bet the house,

you the man bro...

taurus,

appreciate it very much...GL pal...

[BuddyBear]

Good luck Coach....epic run this season.

[imgv94]

Superb writeups again..
I'm going to bet Minnesota now cause of your writeup, u make them sound really good.

[durito]

good luck this week and nice writeups

i'm still hoping to get cincy at 7, i don't thinks it going to happen

[regularguy]

I'm on Maryland and Cincinnati with you pags. Good luck this weekend. And thanks, as always.

[masr]

Thanks for the insights..good write ups,going w/ few your picks....
NW
MINN
UK
GL this week..

[pags11]

buddy,

thanks very much brother...appreciate all of your help this season, couldn't have done it without guys like you...

imgv,

good to hear you will be playing Minnesota...GL my friend...

durito,

thanks as usual for stopping in, and thanks for the well wishes...GL to you as well...

regularguy,

outstanding and thank you...BOL to you as well this week...

[pavyracer]

Hello Board,

Here are my plays for the week:


Kentucky +8

One has to wonder how much Georgia has left in their emotional tank coming into this game. I also think that Kentucky is starting to get healthy, which was a problem for them during the middle point of the season. Kentucky will have its hands full with RB Moreno, as he’s one of the hottest running backs in the country. As I’ve stated earlier this season, Kentucky employs a bend but not break philosophy on defense. They will need to do so against Georgia this week. I anticipate them loading the box a bit, leaving the game in the hands of Georgia quarterback Stafford. I do think Kentucky’s offense is starting to click once again. QB Andre Woodson has most all of his weapons now healthy (with the exception of RB Rafael Little who’s questionable, but Locke has still been running well. With Tamme, Lyons, Johnson and Burton out in pass patterns, this makes Kentucky’s offense very difficult to defend. I’m just not sure that there’s six points difference between Kentucky and Auburn right now, especially since I like this situational spot with Kentucky. I’ll take Kentucky plus the points in this game.


Kansas St. +8

It’s amazing how two weeks can change things so dramatically. What you have to notice about Kansas St. is that they are a very strong home team and a very suspect road team. They catch Missouri at home this week, a week before the big showdown between Missouri and Kansas. I’m not sure how much of the tape between Missouri and Texas A&M you got to watch, but Missouri’s defense is starting to look like the Missouri defense of old. It’s important that Kansas State commits to the running game early, as I think Prince has a tendency to get a bit pass happy. Look for an inspired performance from a once again underrated Kansas State squad in this game. QB Josh Freeman will have to make good decisions and distribute the ball to his variety of playmakers, led by wide receiver Jordie Nelson. Slowing down Chase Daniel and crew will be a tough task, but I do like how Kansas State’s team speed on defense matches up with Missouri’s offense. Look for Kansas St. to attempt to contain Missouri’s passing game first and try to get them in some third and long situations. The Manhattan crowd will be fired up and should help the Kansas State stay fired up deep into the fourth quarter. It’s Kansas State and the points for me again here.


Cincinnati +7

I was extremely impressed with Cincinnati’s effort last week against Connecticut. While I think West Virginia presents more of a challenge for them this week, I do think they have the team speed on both sides of the ball to give West Virginia a very good game this week. Head Coach Brian Kelly is one more underrated coaches in the entire country and I think he will have his team extremely motivated in this classic Big East tilt. It’s imperative that QB Ben Mauk make good decisions in this game, taking what the defense will give him. He is extremely mobile which should help him against West Virginia’s pass rush. It’s also going to be important that the Cincinnati receivers hold onto the football as I’ve seen them have some trouble with drops occasionally. The Cincinnati defense must focus on slowing down running back Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, as they are the key to the West Virginia offensive attack. One important thing to note is that Cincinnati has one of the best punters in the country and field position could play an important role in this game. Look for a close game deep into the fourth quarter. I’ll take Cincinnati and the points here.


Minnesota +13.5


I hear all this talk about how Minnesota made the wrong decision firing Glenn Mason and how Tim Brewster is such a terrible coach. I beg to differ as I think Mason’s time was running out in Minnesota anyway, and the bowl game disaster just expedited that process. A lot of people laughed at Greg Schiano too when he took over the Rutgers football program and we all have seen the progress they have made. QB Adam Weber is only a freshman and is a very dynamic player. He possesses dual threat capability and has become more accurate as the season has progressed. Wide receivers Ernie Wheelright and Eric Decker are playmakers as well and I think they have the ability to stretch the Wisconsin defense in the game. Wisconsin is coming off a very emotional victory against Michigan and could suffer a bit of a letdown heading into this game. It’s important to remember that running back P.J. Hill is a bit banged up still and back-up running back Lance Smith isn’t allowed to travel to road games due to a suspension he received at the beginning of the year. I’ve also read reports that have quarterback Tyler Donovan listed as questionable for this game. This is also a rivalry game and games between these two often end up very close. I’m going with Minnesota and the points once again.


Maryland +8


What impressed me most about Maryland’s performance last week’s was the play of young quarterback Chris Turner. He made excellent decisions and was able to get good protection from his line. A big reason for the time to throw was due to the play of running back Lance Ball. He ran with great vision and showed good bursts of speed. If fellow running back Keon Lattimore isn’t able to go this week, I anticipate him carrying the load once again. Turner will look to get the ball to his talented receiving corp., led by Darius Heyward-Bay. Maryland’s defense did an excellent job stopping the run last week and if they can do that this week it should make things very difficult for the Florida State offense to sustain drives. Drew Weatherford is listed as probable this week, but he is coming off a concussion that he suffered in a game last week against Virginia Tech. I think Ralph Freidgen has done a great job with his team this year, especially with his game plans. Another important thing to note is that Maryland is one win away from becoming bowl eligible. Expect a close, hard fought game in this one. I’ll take Maryland and the points and take my chances.


N.C. State +7

I’m really impressed with how Tom O’Bien continues to have his team play inspired football each week. It’s apparent to me that he’s one of the top coaches in the country, and I think far less people doubt his decision to move to N.C. State from Boston College. The success of the team has been keyed by the play of quarterback Daniel Evans and running back Jamelle Eugene. Evans is managing the game efficiently and is keeping his team in ball games by learning to take what the defense gives him. Eugene runs hard every play and is also very skilled at catching the ball out of the backfield. The North Carolina defense will need to game plan for Wake wide receiver Kenny Moore. Moore is quarterback Riley Skinner’s favorite target and N.C. State will attempt to double team him or roll coverage’s his way. Both of these coaches are very familiar with each other and expect a bit of a chess match here. If N.C. State can keep this close into the fourth quarter, they will have a chance to become bowl eligible (which no one would have thought was possible five weeks ago). It’s N.C. State and the points for me here.

Northwestern +14

I’ve read this week that even though Northwestern is bowl eligible that they will most likely still have to win one more game or get shut out of bowl season, due to the lack of bowl tie-ins from the Big 10. That being said, Illinois is coming off a huge emotional win against Ohio St. last week, one in which head coach Ron Zook was in tears after the game. Northwestern’s running back Tyrell Sutton, is now finally fully healthy and is running very hard with great results. This has taken some of the pressure of quarterback C.J. Bacher. With Sutton being back, Bacher will only be asked to manage the game, whereas earlier in the year he was asked to carry a majority of the load. Northwestern will need to attempt to contain running back Rashard Mendenhall, which will be a difficult task. Even though Juice Williams played very well last week, I still think Northwestern has to try to stop the run first. Efficiency on third down and moving the chains will need to be the focus of the Northwestern attack. If they can do that, they can keep themselves in the game. I’ll take Northwestern and the points here and hold on.

Good luck to all.

pags11

Kentucky has 3 RB's banged up for this game. The only healthy one is a true freshman. Kentucky's best receiver will be doubled teamed the whole game. This is what coach Brooks said today on Atlanta radio while I was driving to work. He didn't sound very convincing that his team had a chance tomorrow. Georgia is really pumped up for this game and they will run up the score given the chance by Kentucky's turnovers. The whole stadium will be painted in red and revenge is the only way for tomorrow's game.

[mark wahlberg]

i followed all your plays but kentucky cuz others made good points uga shouda won by 20 or more i have cinci big so i will pray for us gl pags and to every1

[imgv94]

Isn't pags still way up for the year?

One horrific week doesn't make or break someone who has money mgmt. Also he lowered his unit size.

Also you don't see him chasing like amateurs do. Uncool to beat someone while they're down.

[pags11]

2-4-1 on the week, -3 units...

48-34-5 on the season, +35 units...

[pags11]

doc, alexda and happyboy,

thanks again...

[BigBollocks]

Pags even in losing I think you showed why it's important to get early numbers. Based on the numbers you got early in the week, you went 2-4-1. However, for those that trailed you from Tuesday on, they went 1-6. Getting the best number is critical for long-term success. Get 'em next week my man...

[pags11]

thanks bollocks...

[imgv94]

Always good to hear from savvy veteran gamblers like you BB.

[Teasem]

Let's get em this week Pags, a few bad swings in those games; keep up the stellar handicapping