Week 11 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

jtnguyen79 · 11-06-07, 12:28 AM

nep any reason on your choice of western michigan? just want to hear other people thoughts on that

nep1293 · 11-06-07, 07:28 AM

Originally posted by jtnguyen79

nep any reason on your choice of western michigan? just want to hear other people thoughts on that

My system is strictly based on numbers, Home (+3) has been a decent bet so far this year.

I don't feel good about the Western Michigan pick though, I would be betting Central Michigan if I was playing this game without The Chart.

taurus · 11-06-07, 09:07 AM

Chartman: I know you have flattened out the past few weeks, but keep posting. I find your chart interesting and valuable.
GL

theshark · 11-06-07, 09:21 AM

my upset special this week is the illinois +15...i think the team will be ready for a big effort and ohio st has michigan on the back of there mind....its not possible for and out rigth upset here ...i like this illinois football team to cover easily....im betting 2 dimes on this game...only other game im playing is kansas - the points against okls st....i think kansas will be a blow out have a very easy time with okls st....theshark

tblues2005 · 11-06-07, 10:18 AM

nep,

What is your record with 65 percent ones? I see you have one this week with Temple.

Tunes · 11-06-07, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by theshark

my upset special this week is the illinois +15...i think the team will be ready for a big effort and ohio st has michigan on the back of there mind....its not possible for and out rigth upset here ...i like this illinois football team to cover easily....im betting 2 dimes on this game...only other game im playing is kansas - the points against okls st....i think kansas will be a blow out have a very easy time with okls st....theshark

Ohio State has a habit of playing games close into the third quarter and then running over people. And Tressel has NEVER lost a game at Ohio State that he was supposed to win. They lose when they've got less talent, like when they play SEC teams in the big game, but at home against the Big 10 that team is a rock.

nep1293 · 11-06-07, 10:33 AM

Originally posted by tblues2005

nep,

What is your record with 65 percent ones? I see you have one this week with Temple.

Here are the records by the percent. As you can see Temple and Utah St have no record for their percent this year. The high percent is a little misleading because there is not as many games in the database with those spreads, but I do think they are worthy plays based on the information I've collected. If both Temple and Utah St fail to cover the new percentages would become 60% and 63% so there is a lot of fluctuation. In other spreads, it would take 5 straight wins or losses to move the percent that much.

50% 32 -40 -1
51% 34 -41 -1
52% 31 -29 -3
53% 16 -19 -2
54% 23 -18 -1
55% 16 -18 -1
56% 12 -16
57% 18 -11 -1
58% 18 -11 -2
59% 21 -9
60% 18 -13 -1
61% 11 -11
62% 0 -3
63% 0 -2
64% 1 -1

I am really tempted to bump my minimum up to 57% as that is where the Wins really start pouring in, but I think I'm just going to finish up the year with the 55% basement and rethink everything for next year

nep1293 · 11-06-07, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by taurus

Chartman: I know you have flattened out the past few weeks, but keep posting. I find your chart interesting and valuable.
GL

I'll keep the posts coming... I've learned a lot this year and I think I can make this system stronger in the future. I'm just going to have to sit down in the offseason and really crunch the numbers of all the past seasons. I stll think I can get a strong finish this year but The Chart will be a force in the future!

I'm glad you are enjoying it.

I post The Chart and some other stuff on my website/blog. It's really just so I can access my information anywhere and quicker but I post there earlier than I do here.

Here is the address for anyone who wants to check it out

The Chart

http://the-chart.blogspot.com/

If anyone goes through my archived posts you'll notice that I had Kansas winning the Big 12 North division. 1 of my best calls of the year. But I also had the St Louis Rams in the Super Bowl so that 1 kind of crapped the bed.

nep1293 · 11-06-07, 10:43 AM

It'll be a true test to see where this Illinois team ranks. I don't think they are ready to take down Ohio St yet, but the way things are going this year it is possible. Regardless, the Illini look like a Top 10 team for next year. Pretty good turnaround for them.

tblues2005 · 11-06-07, 10:49 AM

That is an excellent idea there nep, just go by next season with the new numbers and make the system better.

I think Illinois is will be tough this week against Ohio State but I don't think they will win the game though, this is the week before Michigan so Ohio State may get caught looking ahead in this one, some teams have had that problem this year of looking ahead, look at the Chargers last week they got caught looking ahead to Indy.

pags11 · 11-06-07, 03:18 PM

GL nep...

nep1293 · 11-07-07, 10:04 AM

Thanks Pags

Almost stole the Western Michigan game, I'll take the push though. These MAC games are crazy but where else can you get Tuesday and Wednesday night football

mandy · 11-07-07, 10:18 PM

GL Nep

bmac · 11-08-07, 02:39 PM

BOl pal

Jake38 · 11-08-07, 04:22 PM

Originally posted by theshark

my upset special this week is the illinois +15...i think the team will be ready for a big effort and ohio st has michigan on the back of there mind....its not possible for and out rigth upset here ...i like this illinois football team to cover easily....im betting 2 dimes on this game...only other game im playing is kansas - the points against okls st....i think kansas will be a blow out have a very easy time with okls st....theshark

Just to piggy-back on what Tunes said. Ohio St. is solid and got a bit of a scare from the Badgers last week so any chance of them looking past Illinois is bleak. I live in Columbus and follow the team quite closely and this team is focused. I will be on the Buckeyes. I feel Illinois is just too one dimensional and they are going to make Juice throw the ball to beat them and OSU secondary will deliver. I could be mistaken but the Bucks have covered every game but one and the Offense cost them the spread on that one. Just my two cents.

All of that aside, you did say it was an upset pick and anything can happen on any given Sat. So with that said, good luck with your pick.

Jake38 · 11-08-07, 04:27 PM

Sorry Nep, didn't mean to go off track in your thread. Great stuff. I look forward to the chart every week and look to it when I'm on the fence for a particular game. Keep it up.

nep1293 · 11-09-07, 10:38 PM

Originally posted by Jake38

Sorry Nep, didn't mean to go off track in your thread. Great stuff. I look forward to the chart every week and look to it when I'm on the fence for a particular game. Keep it up.

Whatever keeps the post on the front page is fine with me. I'm glad you enjoy reading

That BYU game really ticked me off yesterday. BYU was using a 2 man rush when TCU marched right down the field for their cover TD. And then BYU kneels inside the 5 instead of going Belichick on the frogs. Had a potential 3-0 start to the week turn into 1-1-1. The crappy beats have been pounding me lately. 17 games tomorrow, I'd like to get 10 or 11 wins out of them.

nep1293 · 11-11-07, 08:49 AM

Another crappy week, 7-12-1 . Lots of blown leads. BYU, Colorado, Arizona St, SMU. It seems like all the comebacks are going against me. When my team falls behind they get drilled. When my team gets a nice lead they blow it. Oh well. 3 Weeks left. I'm not too enthused, looks like limping towards the finish line is inevitable. I'll regroup for next year though. I'm working on a few things to help weed out some losers and focus on fewer games.

taurus · 11-12-07, 06:32 PM

ok, nep.
I think a lot of us appreciate your efforts and your time.

beaneaters · 11-12-07, 06:46 PM

How exactly does the chart work? Are you saying that road teams that are four-point dogs cover 61.29 per cent of the time? That home teams favored by 6.5 points cover 58.91 per cent of the time? Etc, etc??
If I'm reading things right, this is cool info, and I appreciate your time. If not, please set me straight. And is the chart just for games this season? Or does it go back longer?
And is it just college games, or NFL as well?
Thanks