Week 7 Plays from BuddyBear

**imgv94** · 10-09-07, 10:20 PM

Why do you like Oregon St bro?

I don't see it.

**BuddyBear** · 10-09-07, 10:28 PM

They are much better defensively than CAL is, slightly weaker offensively, both have faced about equal level of competition, and this is a road team dominated series. Not to mention that OSU falls into some strong system plays this weekend. Anytime I can catch the better team defensively getting points I have to look at it very strongly.

It will be a tough cover for sure though with the type of team CAL fields....

**imgv94** · 10-09-07, 10:34 PM

I usually like those factors too. If OSU keeps it close I will come into this thread and give you props.

Also think OSU's defense especially vs Pass isn't going to be as effective cause they are going to be double teaming Jackson.

**rjt721** · 10-09-07, 10:36 PM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

They are much better defensively than CAL is, slightly weaker offensively, both have faced about equal level of competition, and this is a road team dominated series. Not to mention that OSU falls into some strong system plays this weekend. Anytime I can catch the better team defensively getting points I have to look at it very strongly.

It will be a tough cover for sure though with the type of team CAL fields....

Strongly disagree with this. Without Stroughter their offense is very poor. Bernard's great, but that's all they have at the moment. Canfield's a turnover machine. With that said, I have no strong opinion either way on this game.

I'm with you on Iowa.

What do you like about Purdue? I think the line's a few points off. Spread offense against UM?

Good luck BB. Keep on rolling.

**strictlywinners** · 10-09-07, 10:51 PM

love the oregon state play my man their d keeps them in this game

**pags11** · 10-09-07, 10:52 PM

GL to you this week buddy...

**BuddyBear** · 10-09-07, 11:16 PM

Originally posted by rjt721

I'm with you on Iowa.

Yeah, I think Iowa wins outright. the +3.5 is a bonus. Iowa is much better defensively (4.6 YPP vs. 5.0 YPP) and this is the classic letdown situation that Illinois falls into. So many systems I have play on Iowa this weekend. I know Illinois is better...no dispute....but the situatin is sooooo strong for Iowa here that I have no choice but to play it. Very obvious that only side to consider is Iowa.

Originally posted by rjt721

What do you like about Purdue? I think the line's a few points off. Spread offense against UM?

I disagree. Michigan is extremely overrated as they showed against NW and EMU. Purdue features a pretty strong offense that was shutdown by an elite defense. Sorry, but Mich is no where near as good as OSU this year even though they are suppose to be. Purdue should be able to move the ball relatively easy. After last week, this week should be much easier for them to get into an offensive flow. I was shocked EMU put up 22 pts agaisnt UM in Ann Arbor and EMU is one of the 10 worst teams in the country. There is offense is not all that great either even though they have big play capability they are suprising just average (60th in the nation) offensively total yards wise. Purdue offensively average 5.9 YPP while Michigan averages 5.2 YPP. Meanwhile, we all now Purdue's D is not good but Mich's is actually worse Purdue = 5.0 YPP to Michigan = 5.1 YPP. Purdue should find the sledding much easier this week.

Additionally, Purdue falls into a boatload of strong system plays this weekend. PM me if you are interested in looking them over...there are just too many to post on here.

Originally posted by rjt721

Good luck BB. Keep on rolling.

Thanks rjt. Best of luck to you this weekend. Thanks for your comments and insights on the games this weekend. I look forward to your writeups every week.

**BuddyBear** · 10-09-07, 11:17 PM

Originally posted by pags11

GL to you this week buddy...

Thanks Pags. I wouldn't be in this position without you. Will more than likely be joining you on Friday with SJST. Not sure why everyone likes Hawaii....

**BuddyBear** · 10-09-07, 11:18 PM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

love the oregon state play my man their d keeps them in this game

That's what I am hoping for SW. Hopefully their defense is up to the task and Y. Bernard can get the offense going.

**pags11** · 10-10-07, 04:27 AM

agreed regarding SJSU...good to hear you might play them...

**onlooker** · 10-10-07, 04:40 AM

Hey BuddyBear. I am with you on Akron -10 on Saturday. I think that might be a double popper. I don't have a side in that Northern Illinois game, but I do like the UNDER 58.5 in that one.

Good luck with your plays.

**bueller** · 10-10-07, 07:46 PM

Originally posted by pags11

agreed regarding SJSU...good to hear you might play them...

I really respect your picks pags, I just would like to know why this is looking good? Colt sounds like he still may play with a ankle sprain. I made some mad money last week with San Jose st. but I don't see this...

**Wassymac** · 10-11-07, 12:27 AM

Good luck this week Buddy. I don't think the line is off at all in the Purdue/UM game based on both teams performances YTD. I just witnessed Curtis Painter revert back to his 2006 form for the last game and a half and don't trust that he'll get it fixed. His effort against the Buckeyes was the worst I've seen from a Purdue QB in the Tiller era. My bet against the Boilers this Saturday is dependent on that trend continuing. If Painter turns it around then it'll be a Purdue W as I seemed to be about the only one in the country happy with Purdue's defensive effort against OSU. I hope I'm wrong and lose money but couldn't resist the wager. I also love the under here.

I'll also add for those that didn't watch closely there were at least 4 Painter passes that should have been picks last Saturday. He's on the brink of a meltdown after hearing it from the media and fan base the entire week IMO.

**BuddyBear** · 10-11-07, 12:31 AM

Thanks Wassymac. I think you might be joining the same club as The Gambler and BabaOReilly Saturday where they were both betting against their alma mattar's and got burned...i might be joining it too if Indiana does not come through against MSU this weekend.

I like the situation more than anything else. Purdue has better numbers than Michigan in offense and defense. Little bit concerned about Tiller's teams folding in October but Carr is not that much better. He is a horrid ATS coach when favored. This line seems short but I think the linesmaker may be tipping his hand here a bit.....I'll take Purdue with the points and hope for the best.

**pags11** · 10-11-07, 04:21 AM

bueller,

out of respect to buddy bear and his thread, I'll let him comment on why we both like SJSU on Friday...

**bmac** · 10-11-07, 04:58 PM

I like IOWA

BOL BB

**Hemlock21** · 10-11-07, 11:17 PM

I agree with you on Indiana and Colorado. I didn't touch those other games and you know how I feel about the rest. GL Bud

**BuddyBear** · 10-12-07, 05:36 PM

I am going to add a play:

105/106 Hawaii/San Jose St Over 68 (1/2 unit)

Either I am the biggest sucker in the world which just might be or this play should easily hit.....I am not seeing how either team will be able to stop one another. Hawaii of course features the second best passing attack in the nation and needs no further elaboration. And SJSU is coming on a bit offensively now that there are in WAC play and the fact that there running game is near dead last means they will emphasize the pass even more. I expect both teams to pass the ball (3 our of every 4 offensive plays are likely to be passes) Lot of passing means, slow moving game, going out of bounds, clock stoppages, extra possessions, chances for interception returns for TDs, etc....Hawaii ranks #114 in rushing yardage and unbelieavably SJST is #117 only ahead of powerhouses Syracuse and Notre Dame. Also, anytime there is a spread this big you always have to consider backdoor TDs, defensive and special teams TDs just b/c of the disparity between the teams.

In any event, this 1/2 unit play will get rid of that pesky .5 on my season record.

**Doc JS** · 10-13-07, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by BuddyBear

I am going to add a play:

105/106 Hawaii/San Jose St Over 68 (1/2 unit)

BB,
It didn't necessairly look like it at half, but they blew by the number to cover for you easily in the second half!

Congrats!!

**puttn4par** · 10-13-07, 08:09 AM

I am new to the site but buddy has some real good insight on his hadicapping.. Keep up the good work

**BuddyBear** · 10-13-07, 09:00 AM

Originally posted by Doc JS

BB,
It didn't necessairly look like it at half, but they blew by the number to cover for you easily in the second half!

Congrats!!

Yeah thanks Doc the Hawaii/SJST game was interesting. At the half it looked all but over. Even though SJST was able to move the ball they did not have any sustained drives. Hawaii on the other hand looked better but were not quite moving at the pace I thought they would. But I handicapped it correctly in the sense that I placed a lot of emphasis on the fact that neither team would run much and the passing games would be much more promiment. As a result, the game slows down so much when you don't run. Literally there were times when there were 8 or 9 plays within a minute (game time). I am glad it worked out....but I generally don't like O/U just b/c coaches will adapt their style to the pace of the game. Anyway, it was great once OT started knowing I had won the bet (along with SJST backers) that we could just sit back and watch a very good game play out.

Good luck this weekend Doc....

**BuddyBear** · 10-13-07, 09:02 AM

Originally posted by puttn4par

I am new to the site but buddy has some real good insight on his hadicapping.. Keep up the good work

Thanks Putt! I appreciate the nice words. There are actually a ton of guys on here who have a lot of insights on the games and I enjoy listening to everyone who has an opinion. I believe if we work together on here we can find more winners than losers I do my best to interpret the information available to me in a logical and consistent fashion and make my plays based on that. I'd say I am slightly a more technical capper if I had to define myself.

I really enjoy the site and the many others who contirbute to it. I am always willing and excited to talk about any of the games (I keep up with all the teams) with anyone who is interested.

Good luck this weekend puttn!

**bigboydan** · 10-13-07, 09:43 AM

I thought I was the only nut that would be on Purdue today double B. I'm already down on the Iowa ML in that game.

BOL with your slate today

**bmac** · 10-13-07, 09:44 AM

Its going to be a great day BB

**imgv94** · 10-13-07, 03:21 PM

Good job w Iowa Buddy.

**bmac** · 10-15-07, 11:24 AM

**moneyplays** · 10-15-07, 12:24 PM

That Akron loss was disheartening. I thought they had it

**puttn4par** · 10-15-07, 06:31 PM

Great job Buddy!!!!! I had a terrible Saturday but you dropped the hammer on the books.. Keep up the good work