Play of the night, Fri Oct 12

Wolfpack · 10-09-07, 12:08 AM

Good luck dude.

LargeMouthBass · 10-09-07, 12:54 AM

Is Colt Brennan hurt? He might be out for Friday.

ws1975 · 10-09-07, 08:04 AM

Take San Jose St and the points. Hawaii couldn't cover at home against a bad Utah State team.

cashflow50 · 10-09-07, 12:43 PM

Originally posted by ws1975

Take San Jose St and the points. Hawaii couldn't cover at home against a bad Utah State team.

they couldnt cover because they played their bench mid third to fourth quarter. you might want to consider ly when they went to fresno and beat the shit out of them. well its something to look at. as for brennan, i believe june will sit him for this game. graunke gets the call. yah and you're right..take san jose st and the points.

ntgarrett · 10-09-07, 04:01 PM

curious....your plays lately have been money in the bag

and I like this pick as well......as long as Colt plays. I didn't like your Bills ML last night but you almost pulled that one off!

GL to you

curious · 10-09-07, 06:00 PM

The point spread is moving in our favor, patience is required here. I will probably place my bet on Friday. Watch the point spread movement and time your bet accordingly.

Colt Brennan will play 2 1/2 quarters on Friday, the backup quarterback will finish the game. The backup QB won't perform as well as Brennan, but the defense will recover from their pitiful outing last week.

curious · 10-12-07, 07:38 AM

Originally posted by curious

Hawaii -19 2 units change to Hawaii -17 3 units

Update: I haven't bet this yet, there are some key injuries on Hawaii that need to be resolved. I still like the play, and the point spread is moving in our favor. I would use patience here and place the bet on Friday.

I would like to take the moneyline here but I just can't bring myself to risk 12 units to win 1.

Patience paid off. Hawaii -17 3 units

Please note the change in the bet size from 2 units to 3 units and the change in the spread from -19 to -17, I knew patience would pay off here.

bueller · 10-12-07, 08:36 AM

I always think this is weird 70% of the public are taking Hawaii, yet the line still drops 1.5 points? Seems weird?
Does anyone know why?

emat · 10-12-07, 11:00 AM

I actually like San Jose here a lot. I have seen them play in person (when they had more injury issues) and I was impressed with their play and that was on the road at a decent BCS school. I think there is a shot for an outright upset here. I probably won't risk any on ML here, but definetly feel they will cover. Would also consider 6 point tease (SJ -24 Over 63) if you don't feel comfortable. I don't think a tease is needed though.

pokernut9999 · 10-12-07, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by bueller

I always think this is weird 70% of the public are taking Hawaii, yet the line still drops 1.5 points? Seems weird?
Does anyone know why?

A Dr. Bob pick is why.

pokernut9999 · 10-12-07, 11:28 AM

Originally posted by emat

I actually like San Jose here a lot. I have seen them play in person (when they had more injury issues) and I was impressed with their play and that was on the road at a decent BCS school. I think there is a shot for an outright upset here. I probably won't risk any on ML here, but definetly feel they will cover. Would also consider 6 point tease (SJ -24 Over 63) if you don't feel comfortable. I don't think a tease is needed though.

they played 3 road games vs BCS schools, which one impressed you .

3-45 loss Arizona St
14-34 loss Kansas St
0-37 loss Stanford

EaglesPhan36 · 10-12-07, 12:48 PM

Brennan has a sprained ankle, but will play. Even if he can't go the whole way, their backup Graunke has proven effective. I don't trust Hawaii to cover in this spot either way though, I'm playing the over myself. GL to you Rainbow Warriors!

emat · 10-12-07, 01:04 PM

Pokernut, Kansas State. The game was closer than the final score shows. I will admit the other 2 games look awful although the Stanford game was close as well deep into the 2nd half. If Colt Breenan was completely healthy here, I would probably just stay away from this game or even towards Hawaii. I just can't see laying 17 to 18 at home against an impoving San Jose team. Hawaii is a much different team on the mainland. Starting to like the over as well. What are the rain chances?

pokernut9999 · 10-12-07, 01:14 PM

They are calling for rain. I like the over here also. Just think Hawaii will try to impress for their 1st national TV game.

emat · 10-12-07, 01:22 PM

90% chance of rain, winds gusting over 20. Weather might be providing good value here with the total as that kind of weather is not going to keep these teams from scoring. I think it was last year or the year before, I watched Hawaii play in a game with 30-40 mph wind, still scored a lot of point if I reminder. Anyone else recall that game?

pokernut9999 · 10-12-07, 01:26 PM

It was either the Purdue or Oregon St game. Their last 2 home games. Trash was blowing all over the field. Think it was the Oregon St game 35-32.

laxdjock · 10-12-07, 01:32 PM

it is -17.5 at both of my books.....should I buy the pt or take it at 17.5?

emat · 10-12-07, 01:43 PM

The Oregon State game is the one I was thinking of. I guess in Hawaii terms it wasn't as high scoring, but Oregon State was decent last year and the winds were excessive (I remember the trash blowing alll over as well and thinking is this really Hawaii). Probably should not look too much into the weather, but I think its definetly proves Hawaii is not going to go conservative in bad weather.

emat · 10-12-07, 01:53 PM

Hopefully, I am not putting on a jinx here, but the last 16 Hawaii games have scored at least 63 points or more. I think if you tease the total down to 62 or 62.5, you are being handed a 6 point buffer as a gift in this game. Plus, you pick up the juice at even money on a 6 point NCAA tease. Something to consider if people are struggling with the teams here. Whats it going to be SJS +23\23.5 or the bows -11\11.5?

EaglesPhan36 · 10-12-07, 01:55 PM

Yeah I think rain can be an over-rated influence on totals in alot of cases. People automatically equate rain with less scoring, but you could actually get a boost with the ball being slick and more turnovers potentially leading to easy scores. I see the total down to 68.5 now. Itching to pull the trigger, but might be greedy and see if it shaves down another .5.

laxdjock · 10-12-07, 02:32 PM

I pulled it at Ov 68.5. I was looking at the parlay -17.5 HI for +264, but I'm on the fence about a backdoor cover by SJS when they call off the dogs in the 3rd or so quarter. I figure I can root for a high scoring game and be happy with my money if it hits.

2.2 units on Ov 68.5

I also jumped on TCU -6 v. Stanford, 2.2 units. I'm hoping for a big let down by Stanford, and some timely O by TCU...and by timely I mean a crapload of scoring.

moneyplays · 10-12-07, 02:34 PM

I live in San Jose. It has been drizzling off and on. Do not count the rain as a factor as if it does rain it won't be much. it rained last night and its already dry. There wasn't much coming down.

EaglesPhan36 · 10-12-07, 02:41 PM

Total down to 68. Think it's time to pull the trigger for me.

WestsidePete · 10-12-07, 02:44 PM

I teased a couple of plays on this one...Hawaii -7 and over 61.5....that 17.5 line worries me with possible 4th qtr scores for SJ, but Hawaii should be able to win by at least 10, and I feel there's a better chance of a Hawaii blow out then SJ keeping it close.

pokernut9999 · 10-12-07, 02:50 PM

Hawaii will not be pulling any starters late in this game. They dont get national TV that much and they will try to take advantage as much as possible. Does not mean they will blow them out, but do not see them pulling any starters late either.

Teasem · 10-12-07, 03:43 PM

4 plays tonight, small plays

SJST +19
Over 70
Hawaii -12 & Over 64 Teaser
SJST +18 & Over 70 Parlay

See if we can mid the game and keep the score high

moneyplays · 10-12-07, 03:52 PM

It is starting to drizzle here again.

pavyracer · 10-12-07, 04:10 PM

I have one solid play for tonight with SJSU +17.5. SJSU plays very well at home and will not give up easily on their own supebowl. Hawaii will try to outscore them but SJSU will hold. I don't see Hawaii covering this game.

jonmic · 10-12-07, 04:15 PM

SJSU tonight, no way Hawaii covers this game

icemantbi · 10-12-07, 04:36 PM

I'm also on SJS. O/U is 68.5 at Pinny Eaglesphan. Where did u find at 68? I'd pull the trigger on 68, but a bit reluctant at 68.5.

paul Mordeeb · 10-12-07, 04:42 PM

Matchbook and the greek are at 68

EaglesPhan36 · 10-12-07, 04:43 PM

Originally posted by icemantbi

I'm also on SJS. O/U is 68.5 at Pinny Eaglesphan. Where did u find at 68? I'd pull the trigger on 68, but a bit reluctant at 68.5.

BetJam ... it's been at 68 for a couple hours now. Only place I can see it going is back up.

curious · 10-12-07, 04:53 PM

Originally posted by laxdjock

it is -17.5 at both of my books.....should I buy the pt or take it at 17.5?

I wouldn't buy points on this game unless the spread was a danger number like 3 or 7. -17 1/2 seems okay to me.

OrionSky · 10-12-07, 05:19 PM

Got Hawaii at -16.5...work your magic...