Week 7 NCAA Football Picks - The Chart

**hhsilver** · 10-08-07, 02:08 PM

what source do you use for the opening line ? and when do you assign the opening line? I often see a lot of changes between Sun and Mon.

**nep1293** · 10-08-07, 09:15 PM

Originally posted by hhsilver

what source do you use for the opening line ? and when do you assign the opening line? I often see a lot of changes between Sun and Mon.

I use pinnacles opener. I try to be on the site when the lines go up to get them then. If I miss them I go to the SBR NCAA FB Scoreboard and check out the opener for each game.

**austintx05** · 10-08-07, 09:24 PM

gl luck this week

**nep1293** · 10-08-07, 10:16 PM

Bowl Game Data

Here is the Bowl Game data I have. Neutral Site Conference Championship games are included.

The records are from the last 5 seasons, they are in relation to the underdogs. The lines I have are not 100% accurate but they are close

POINTS-SPREAD-MONEY LINE
1--- (8-7) , (8-7)
2-- (7-11) , (6-12)
3--- (8-6) , (6-10)
3.5-- (4-2) , (3-3)
4--- (7-2) , (6-3)
5--- (4-7) , (4-7)
6--- (8-12) , (7-13)
7--- (6-4) , (4-6)
7.5-- (5-3) , (2-6)
8--- (6-1) , (4-3)
9--- (5-2) , (2-5)
10-- (3-5) , (1-7)
11-- (2-1) , (1-3)
12-- (5-0) , (5-0)
13-- (4-3) , (2-5)
16-- (0-1) , (0-1)
17-- (2-0) , (0-2)
21-- (0-1) , (0-1)
24-- (0-1) , (0-1)

There are some trends here, taking all the points 7 and above looks good. Underdogs Money lines in general look decent

I'm not really going to look at these very closely until Bowl Season. I just put them up since a few were asking for them, haven't gotten around to it until now.

**strictlywinners** · 10-08-07, 11:51 PM

You are going to have a monster week probably atleast 75 percent

**nep1293** · 10-09-07, 08:26 AM

Originally posted by strictlywinners

You are going to have a monster week probably atleast 75 percent

I think a real good week is possible, The games I'm playing this week are ones that have had most of the success on the year. The previous weeks I was relying on a lot of big spread favorites. Let's hope you're right!

**LT Profits** · 10-09-07, 10:57 AM

nep1293,

When it comes to Bowl Season, I have had success playing on specific conferences as underdogs and against specific conferences as favorites. It seems that these have held up from year to year since the 2000 season. I will post a thread with this data in a bit.

**nep1293** · 10-09-07, 11:06 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

nep1293,

When it comes to Bowl Season, I have had success playing on specific conferences as underdogs and against specific conferences as favorites. It seems that these have held up from year to year since the 2000 season. I will post a thread with this data in a bit.

That makes a lot of sense. Sometimes you see a CUSA team at 10-2 vs an SEC team at 6-6 and forget about the differences in the conferences. I'm interested in seeing those numbers.

I also see some validity to taking the points in bowl games. They are neutral sites and all the teams are good teams, so more upsets should be expected compared to regular season atchups

**austintx05** · 10-12-07, 01:18 AM

great call on navy

**ws1975** · 10-12-07, 06:49 AM

Now that Booty won't play, I'm leaning towards taking Arizona.

**nep1293** · 10-12-07, 07:20 AM

Originally posted by austintx05

great call on navy

That was a fun game, I thought the offsides in OT was gonna blow it but it worked out.

Originally posted by ws1975

Now that Booty won't play, I'm leaning towards taking Arizona.

I actually felt the opposite when he got benched, I like USC even more now.

The big home faves haven't been hitting as much the last 2 weeks so this I wouldn't be surprised if Arizona covered here.

I'm counting on the small road dogs and the 6 point favorites to carry me this week, they've been the biggest moneymakers on the year.

**austintx05** · 10-14-07, 11:14 PM

great week again

**hhsilver** · 10-15-07, 02:02 PM

I hope you did most of your betting late.
I spent too much time going over the results of your chart this week. I need a life. :-) Too bad I didn't take some time to bet from your chart.

Here's what I tally :

13-8 from your official picks based on early( opening lines) . That's great -- I know you make some bets early and, I think, most late, but if you made all your bets late, you would have had no bets on Kans (win), Hous(lose), and Ida (lose) and you would have added bets on Syra (lose) ohio (win) , Duke (lose), Mich st (win), Mo (win), KSU(win) and UNLV (win) ---

So it's likely that you could have gone 17-8 with all late betting. Very nice. I'll be curious to see what you actually bet.

**nep1293** · 10-15-07, 09:20 PM

Originally posted by hhsilver

I hope you did most of your betting late.
I spent too much time going over the results of your chart this week. I need a life. :-) Too bad I didn't take some time to bet from your chart.

Here's what I tally :

13-8 from your official picks based on early( opening lines) . That's great -- I know you make some bets early and, I think, most late, but if you made all your bets late, you would have had no bets on Kans (win), Hous(lose), and Ida (lose) and you would have added bets on Syra (lose) ohio (win) , Duke (lose), Mich st (win), Mo (win), KSU(win) and UNLV (win) ---

So it's likely that you could have gone 17-8 with all late betting. Very nice. I'll be curious to see what you actually bet.

I went 13-8 on my "official" plays , I play all the highlighted picks regardless of where the line moves, and I won't add the plays after the line movement.

I did play a bunch of other "non-official" games that I liked.

I won Wake, Michigan, Ohio, Central Michigan, Michigan St, Louisville (money line!!!), Kansas St, and UNLV

I lost Hawaii, UCF, Miami (FL), and Duke.

I played 1/2 units on those games. Overall a very good week.

Week 8 should be up later tonight