Anyone else liking Kentucky +3.5?

SECfan23 · 10-01-07, 04:01 PM

Im still thinking about this one. I havent missed a USC game yet this year and this is the only one Ive been hesitant to bet on. Spurrier knows how to cover. I think he is 4-1 ATS this year. If Smelley had not done pretty well last week, I would recommend taking Kentucky. But Smelley looked good and comfortable in the pocket and I look for another good game on Thursday. And if he doesnt show up, Mitchell will be itching to earn his starting position back.

USC held Kentucky to 2 TDs last season in Lexington. This will be the best defense the wildcats have seen this year even with out Jasper Brinkley. If Florida Atlantic can score 17 and Kent State can score 20, I dont see a problem for the gamecocks to put up atleast 35 at home, at night, in front of all the jacked up fans. They just hung 38 on Miss State who I think has a better defense than Kentucky.
Few more points:
USC won the last 7 meetings (lost in 99 when USC was 0-11)
Ive heard 2 people tell me that USC has the #1 pass defense in country(havent looked up yet.)
It is hard to go on the road and win on Thursday nights.

All that said, something is holding me back from beting on the cocks.

Razz · 10-01-07, 04:17 PM

Should be a good one. SC gave Auburn everything it could handle last year on a Thursday night game when they were a double digit dog, and I think they're slightly better than Kentucky on a neutral field (I have them -1.5 on a neutral field, so I think the more proper line here would be -5 or so). So often we see this type of premier game come down to HFA and coaching, and both are in SC's favor. That's the only side I could consider, but I think I'll just be a spectator.

louisvillekid · 10-01-07, 04:32 PM

south carolina, SC is quick on the defensive side, UK will be forced to run, and SC's line is just to tough, and SC's at home, uk don't have a chance.

hawk 5 · 10-01-07, 09:24 PM

Lines down to 1.5, Razz. I'll just watch this one too.

durito · 10-01-07, 09:28 PM

Originally posted by hawk 5

Lines down to 1.5, Razz. I'll just watch this one too.

where?

i'm seeing 3.5 with a couple of 3's

hawk 5 · 10-01-07, 09:34 PM

bookmaker, 10 min ago. let me go make sure.

hawk 5 · 10-01-07, 09:37 PM

3.5 now. Must of fu..ed up. Thought for sure I saw it at 1.5.

onlooker · 10-02-07, 02:14 AM

I will most likely be on South Carolina -3.5 in this one.

LLXC · 10-02-07, 03:00 AM

I like SC here. Nationally televised game, on a weekday, in SC, against a good defensive team who isn't that stupid (Arkansas).

EBone · 10-03-07, 12:09 AM

I'll be a decenting voice here. I like Kentucky. I hate going against Spurrier but I just think that things in Columbia are a bit too volatile with the lack of stability at QB.

I was real surprised at how Kentucky came and took care of business last week against Fla Atlantic. I think Kentucky comes to play in this one and wins outright.

E

MJFtheGenius · 10-03-07, 09:03 AM

Right now I like South Carolina.

STEELCURTAIN3288 · 10-03-07, 09:32 AM

I am leaning towards SC.

Doc JS · 10-03-07, 09:38 AM

This will be the best QB USC will have seen this year. If Woodson goes off, the Cats have a good chance to steal one at the Brice.

I think this comes down to USC being able to pressure the QB. Something the Gamecocks have had trouble doing in the past. Brinkley being out for the year obviously doesn't help the defense.

Kentucky also runs the ball better than most give them credit for. Last Saturday against Miss. State, at times the Bulldogs controlled the line of scrimmage and run the ball very effectively.

SECfan23 · 10-03-07, 09:53 AM

USC should be able to run the ball very well against Kentucky and everyone knows that helps the QB a lot.
Kentucky has given up 123, 338, 101, 324, 130 total yards rushing in their games this year.
Gamecocks have rushed for 195, 140, 223, 17 (LSU), and 123 this year in their games. I see the gamecocks rushing for over 150 yards this game and Smelley throwing the ball well. I was up in the air earlier but now, im on my gamecocks.