rjt's Week 6 NCAA Plays

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  • rjt721
    SBR Hall of Famer
    • 02-06-07
    • 7929

    #1
    rjt's Week 6 NCAA Plays
    Sides: 9-9-2, -1.33
    Totals: 6-4, +1.07
    ML: 2-1, +1.50
    YTD: 17-14-2, +1.24

    3* Missouri -6: I thought Nebraska would be very good this season. I was wrong. The Huskers’ defense has been a huge disappointment, while the offense has been far less explosive than I anticipated. Their 4-1 record is a bit misleading, as they could just as easily be 2-3. Nebraska’s defense has given up a total of 1482 yards in their last 3 games (494 yards per game), and it’s been both the pass defense and run defense that’s the problem. After allowing 313 yards on the ground to USC, they gave up 422 passing yards and 610 total yards (7.7 yards per play) to Ball St. two weeks ago in a game they deserved to lose. Things don’t figure to get much better for the defense when they travel to Missouri to take on Chase Daniel and the nation’s fifth rated offense. Sam Keller, Marlon Lucky, Maurice Purify and co. are good enough to put up some points against the Tigers’ mediocre defense, but it will all be for not if the defense continues to its horrendous play. I think this is a case of a team (Nebraska) being overrated, at least in terms of preseason rankings, and a Missouri team that’s even better than expected. Missouri has too much firepower for NU to keep up, and I think they win comfortably in a game they need to have a legitimate shot of winning the Big 12 North.
  • austintx05
    SBR MVP
    • 08-24-06
    • 3156

    #2
    shootout....I like it
    Comment
    • BuddyBear
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 08-10-05
      • 7233

      #3
      This would be my lean as well....Nebraska has looked very average to below average much of this year espeically on defense. Good luck with this play.

      Anything else you like rjt?
      Comment
      • Razz
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 08-22-05
        • 5632

        #4
        Other than Baylor, I may not play an underdog this week. Missou is one of the faves I played. GL rjt.
        Comment
        • rjt721
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 02-06-07
          • 7929

          #5
          Originally posted by BuddyBear
          This would be my lean as well....Nebraska has looked very average to below average much of this year espeically on defense. Good luck with this play.

          Anything else you like rjt?
          I'll probably be playing more chalk this week than I would like. This is what I'm looking at:

          Oklahoma -10
          Illinois -2.5
          Alabama -11.5
          Tennessee -1.5
          FAU +16
          Arizona + and/or ML

          I'd consider Florida if the line moves back to 10, which I think is quite possible.

          Like many others, I also like Baylor, but I missed out on a good number, so I may pass.

          Good luck BB. I look forward to reading your thoughts this week.
          Comment
          • Wassymac
            SBR MVP
            • 02-22-06
            • 1090

            #6
            Looks good rjt...only two I've played thus far are Illinois and Mizzou.
            Comment
            • pags11
              SBR Posting Legend
              • 08-18-05
              • 12264

              #7
              rjt,

              agree with your analysis of the Nebraska vs. Missouri game...GL to you with the rest of the card...
              Comment
              • rjt721
                SBR Hall of Famer
                • 02-06-07
                • 7929

                #8
                Thanks guys.

                Adding:

                2* Alabama -10
                2* Tennessee -1.5
                1* Florida Atlantic +15.5 (-103)
                1* Arizona ML +160
                Comment
                • onlooker
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 08-10-05
                  • 36572

                  #9
                  Originally posted by Razz
                  Other than Baylor, I may not play an underdog this week. Missou is one of the faves I played. GL rjt.
                  Baylor will probably be the only doggy I play in college this week myself.

                  RJT.
                  Only against you on one so far. I was leaning toward Oregon State -4 in that match up.

                  Good luck this week.
                  Comment
                  • rjt721
                    SBR Hall of Famer
                    • 02-06-07
                    • 7929

                    #10
                    Adding:

                    1* Kentucky/South Carolina UNDER 57.5 (-104)
                    1* Duke ML +250
                    Comment
                    • nevadaside
                      SBR MVP
                      • 10-20-06
                      • 1263

                      #11
                      Glad you like the UNDER tonight rjt,
                      I don't see pts being easy to come by tonight....I teased it up 10 though.

                      GL to us tonight.
                      Comment
                      • elliott0924
                        SBR High Roller
                        • 09-14-07
                        • 173

                        #12
                        Florida +9 is a sure pick.
                        Comment
                        • Wolfpack
                          SBR High Roller
                          • 10-03-07
                          • 243

                          #13
                          I agree with your Missouri/Nebraska write up. I'm on board with you on that game. Also with ya on the Alabama game. Good luck this weekend.
                          Comment
                          • rjt721
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 02-06-07
                            • 7929

                            #14
                            Adding:

                            2* LSU -7
                            1.5* Illinois -2.5 (-104)
                            1* Baylor +9.5 (-103)
                            1* VT/Clemson UNDER 40.5 (-105)
                            1* Eastern Michigan Team Total OVER 9.5 (-115)

                            Final card:

                            3* Missouri -6
                            2* Alabama -10
                            2* Tennessee -1.5
                            2* LSU -7
                            1.5* Illinois -2.5 (-104)
                            1* Florida Atlantic +15.5 (-103)
                            1* Baylor +9.5 (-103)
                            1* Arizona ML +160
                            1* Duke ML +250
                            1* VT/Clemson UNDER 40.5 (-105)
                            1* Eastern Michigan Team Total OVER 9.5 (-115)
                            1* Kentucky/So. Carolina UNDER 57.5 (-104)

                            Good luck everyone.
                            Comment
                            • pags11
                              SBR Posting Legend
                              • 08-18-05
                              • 12264

                              #15
                              rjt,

                              I really thought that Alabama line would come out more like 13, 13.5 so at ten I can see why you played it...
                              Comment
                              • BuddyBear
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 08-10-05
                                • 7233

                                #16
                                I like them all...some more than others though. Actually...why place a bet on EMU scoring over 9.5. That may easily cash but they have the potential to be shotout pretty easily.
                                Comment
                                • Tres
                                  SBR Hustler
                                  • 09-24-07
                                  • 78

                                  #17
                                  Duke moneyline is interesting

                                  Comment
                                  • onlooker
                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                    • 08-10-05
                                    • 36572

                                    #18
                                    Ok, now it looks like I am with you on two and against you on one. I am with you on LSU -8.5 and Baylor +10. I am going with Oregon State -4 in that match up.

                                    Good luck RJT.
                                    Comment
                                    • Wolfpack
                                      SBR High Roller
                                      • 10-03-07
                                      • 243

                                      #19
                                      Can someone explain to me the Baylor pick. I've seen quite a few people on Baylor this week. I don't follow Baylor much at all.
                                      Comment
                                      • rjt721
                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                        • 02-06-07
                                        • 7929

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by pags11
                                        rjt,

                                        I really thought that Alabama line would come out more like 13, 13.5 so at ten I can see why you played it...
                                        After playing UGA and FSU the last 2 games, I think going against Houston's defense provides a great opportunity for Bama's offense to get right. I anticipate JPW, Hall and Grant each having big games.

                                        Originally posted by BuddyBear
                                        I like them all...some more than others though. Actually...why place a bet on EMU scoring over 9.5. That may easily cash but they have the potential to be shotout pretty easily.
                                        I'm playing more chalk than I'm typically accustomed to, so hopefully it doesn't come back to kill me.

                                        As for the EMU total, a couple factors lead to the play. EMU has pretty good speed at the WR position, and because UM has very little speed in the secondary, with the exception of Donovan Warren, I think they could break a few big plays in the passing game. UM is also a bit banged up offensively, with Henne still not 100%, and a few injuries to the OL. With Manningham being suspended, the offense will be even more run-heavy, and as the game gets out of hand UM plans to get Carlos Brown several carries as Hart's replacement. Brown has had huge trouble holding on to the ball, so I think this could lead to either a few 3 and outs or turnovers to set up EMU in good field position. If/when UM puts the game away in the 2nd half, the second team defense should see the field, so, knowing that I only need 2 scores, and given UM's propensity for allowing big plays, I think EMU has a great shot of getting in the end zone on a couple occasions.

                                        Originally posted by Tres
                                        Duke moneyline is interesting

                                        I really like Thaddeus Lewis, and I think playing at home against a disappointing WFU team provides a decent opportunity for Duke to pick-up their first conference W in nearly 3 years.

                                        Originally posted by onlòóker
                                        Ok, now it looks like I am with you on two and against you on one. I am with you on LSU -8.5 and Baylor +10. I am going with Oregon State -4 in that match up.

                                        Good luck RJT.
                                        Interesting. OSU is not a team I could back right now. As good as Bernard is, Zona's run D is very solid, and given Canfield's troubles all year and being without Stroughter, I don't see how OSU scores in this game, and with they way Zona's offense is improving, they will have to score quite a bit to win/cover.

                                        Good luck looker.

                                        Originally posted by Wolfpack
                                        Can someone explain to me the Baylor pick. I've seen quite a few people on Baylor this week. I don't follow Baylor much at all.
                                        Natural letdown spot for Colorado following the big W of Oklahoma. Hawkins has only played 1 road game, and this will be his first road conference game, so it remains to be seen how he will fare. Baylor's offense is improving, and being at home, I like their chances of being competitive against a solid CU team, but one I feel is getting too much respect with this line following last week's big win. It's one thing to get up for a game against a power like OU, but it's much more difficult to get up for a game against a perennially losing program like Baylor, especially for a young team like the Buffs.
                                        Comment
                                        • Wolfpack
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 10-03-07
                                          • 243

                                          #21
                                          Thanks rjt
                                          Comment
                                          • bigboydan
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 08-10-05
                                            • 55420

                                            #22
                                            I respectfully disagree with your Missouri play RJT. Mizzou just can not beat Nebraska for the life of them.
                                            Comment
                                            • imgv94
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 11-16-05
                                              • 17192

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by bigboydan
                                              I respectfully disagree with your Missouri play RJT. Mizzou just can not beat Nebraska for the life of them.
                                              This changes tomorrow sir.
                                              Comment
                                              • rjt721
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-06-07
                                                • 7929

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by bigboydan
                                                I respectfully disagree with your Missouri play RJT. Mizzou just can not beat Nebraska for the life of them.
                                                Missouri is the better team this year, which hasn't been the case in previous seasons.
                                                Comment
                                                • austintx05
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 08-24-06
                                                  • 3156

                                                  #25
                                                  gl tomorrow amigo
                                                  Comment
                                                  • alta
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 09-08-06
                                                    • 1457

                                                    #26
                                                    Don't know what you see in Tennessee.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • rjt721
                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                      • 02-06-07
                                                      • 7929

                                                      #27
                                                      5-7, -1.02

                                                      22-21-2, +.22

                                                      Four straight losing weeks. Somehow still up a few pennies for the year.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • BuddyBear
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 08-10-05
                                                        • 7233

                                                        #28
                                                        That was a great call on Missouri....too bad all of them can't be that easy. Actually, sweating out the games is kind of fun too so if they were all that easy, it might get boring after a while.

                                                        Good luck the rest of the year rjt.....
                                                        Comment
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