Early Game Looks. Michigan at Notre Dame

[BigdaddyQH]

Jumping to week two now, we have a very critical match up in South Bend between Michigan and Notre Dame on 9/11, of all days. I have discussed both teams strengths and weaknesses in the threads regarding their week 1 match ups, so I will not repeat any of that in here.

Aparently, Rich Rod wants his two QB's to learn how to stop tuning the ball over. This seems to be his aim in the spring drills. While he says that the starting job is wide open, we know that Forcier will be the starter, because Robinson could not hit Lake Michigan with a pass. He is strictly a 3rd and short, or a let's shake up the offense QB. Nothing more.

New HC Brian Kelly is not a happy camper in South Bend. He had no kind words at all about his offense in the Spring. The Irish offense aparently is having trouble adjusting to life without Jimmy Clausen.

What strikes me as very interesting is that neither coach has really commented on their defenses. With 8 starters returning for Michigan, and 9 for Notre Dame, you would think that the defense would be a bright spot for these teams, but aparently not. Both defenses were terrible last year, costing each team games.

This is a very critical game for both teams. Neither team went to a bowl game last year. Michigan coach Rich Rodriguez finds himself in the same situation that former Irish HC Charlie Weis found himself in last year. If Michigan does not produce this year, Rich Rod is gone. Weis faced the same situation last year, and saw Michigan come from behind and beat the Irish. That was the beginning of the end for Weis. We are talking about two of the most storied teams in NCAA Football history. Both of them have fallen on hard times recently.

Wagering wise, there is not much to talk about here. Michigan has covered 3 out of the past 4 games, but they have split the last 8 games in the past 8 years. If there is any angle worth mentioning between these two, it is the fact that the favorite is 2-12 ATS in the past 14 match ups. Assuming that both teams get past their first game (both are plaing at home), look for the Irish to open as a 3-4 point favorite. This is a battle between two desperate teams trying to right the ship. Normally, I like the team that has the biggest need for a win in games like this. Notre Dame has already replaced their HC. Michigan has not. A lean to Michigan, and a definate game to watch.

[Ch3fDan]

You are completely forgetting Devin Gardner in this QB battle. He's going to be a better multi-threat qb than both Forcier and Robinson. Honestly, by the end of the year I expect Forcier to be the one that is worked out of the lineup, and Gardner to see the bulk of the playing time with Robinson used in special situations.


The defense will sure be a work in progress, losing the intensity and leadership of Grahm and Ezeh won't be fun, but with the way Van Bergen and Mike Martin were playing toward the end of the year I think we will a solid D-line. Losing Donovan Warren concerns me but I think the real weak spot will be the line backing core, should be interesting to watch.

[BigdaddyQH]

This is not the best news Michigan can have. A two way battle is bad enough, but a three way battle leads to total instability at the poistion. If your starter, who is Forcier, is eventually worked out of the #1 and #2 spots, and your #3 QB becomes your #1 QB, you will have lost a lot of games. If you lose more than 6, you lose your HC, and start all over again. Rich Rod is on the hot seat, and with Les Miles waiting to bail oout of Baton Rouge, Rodriguez had better win this season. With the sehedule he has (UConn, UMass, and Bowling Green at home, plus Indiana and Purdue on the road and Illinois and Michigan State at home) 7 wins should be an absolute minimum for Rich Rod to keep his job.

[goblue12]

Home team has won 9 of the last 11 in this series.

Don't expect this to be the squad that bucks the trend.

[Ch3fDan]

I agree a 3 way QB battle is not a good thing whatsoever, but if you look at any of the updates Rich Rod likes Gardner a lot. Gardner is a heck of a multi-threat qb and he is being overlooked by everyone as far as the Michigan recruits this year.

If Rich doesn't win 7 this year he is gone, maybe we can return some of our pride and tradition.

[stealthyburrito]

if I were either team, I wouldn't be thrilled about returning that many starters on the defensive side. Both horrid D squads with coaches who give little emphasis/can't coach the d side of the ball.

[goblue12]

It would be wise to wait until Saturday is over before making any judgements one way or another regarding the QB situation.

[BigdaddyQH]

I do not think Saturday will decide anything. I think the decision making is about over until the seasons starts. Michigan's problem is this. They have three QB's who are all option QB's. If Michigan has a poor season, and brings in another new HC, they must start al over again, and will have three QB's that will not fit into any systems except Rodriguezes. So Michigan will be looking at another two to three years of rebuilding.

If this guy Gardener is as good as people say he is (I heard the same caca about Forcier), then the move would be to move Robinson to an RB position and utilie his speed and ability to throw a halfback pass. Even though he could not hit the ocean with a pass, the defenses would have to respect the possibility that he may getlucky and get one in.

However, like Stealthy said, offense is the least of these two teams problems. Those terrible defenses must improve for either one of these two teams to improve. As far as the home team having won 9 out of the last 11 games, that is misleading. The fact is that the home team is only 3-2 in the last 5 games. Oddly enough, the home team has been the dog in the past two games (something that will not happen this year) and 4 out of the past 8 years. Notre Dame has only been favored twice in the past 8 years and not only failed to cover the spread, but failed to win straight up.

[PAULYPOKER]

JUST POST YOUR PICKS THIS YEAR and I'll give you a winning NFL season

[BigdaddyQH]

I posted some of them last season. To be perfectly honest, there will be some that I do not post, for a variety of reasons, one being time restraints. Sometimes, our little squad of gamblers make wagers literally at the last minute, and by time I get the wager confirmed to me, the game has already started. I will NEVER post a game pick after the game has started, even if it is one minute into a scoreless game. There also may be some games involving middles that I will not be able to post, due to the same time constraints. I will do my best.

[Ch3fDan]

I agree the defensive side of the ball is the more important issue right now, but don't belittle the importance on offense for Michigan. I believe we soared very high on the charts for most negative plays in the league last year.

The thing about Gardner is that you don't hear that much about him. He has everything you want for a running-spread team and I think it will too damn hard to keep him off the field. I feel like I'm the only one who doesn't like Forcier... I'm not saying I don't want the guy to succeed, I just don't think he will, and I'm sick of watching a flat, lifeless Michigan team come out every Saturday and get there asses handed to them. Partially I think it's coaching, partly I think it's leadership on the field, and partly I think it's the overall attitude Richrod brings to the program. I mean honestly, look how often we have been in the news for negative reasons the past couple years, this didn't happen under Carr.

[goblue12]

I mean honestly, look how often we have been in the news for negative reasons the past couple years, this didn't happen under Carr.

We didn't have as many publicized problems with the NCAA under Carr, but there was still plenty of "bad news" going around during Carr's tenure. Most notably the whole Jim Harbaugh falling out leading to the academic scandal.

[BigdaddyQH]

I never thought Forcier was the answer to Michigan's problems. The biggest problem is that RichRod was trying to play Big East Football in the Big 10. That does not work. When you play a wide open style of offense as RichRod does, you are going to have your share of plays for negative yardage. Michigan was falling down the ladder in the Big 10 before Rich Rod got there. Carr did not do a very good job of recruiting before he left. He also left the team with a losers attitude. Four losses in a row to Ohio State started the slide. The loss to App. State escladed it. With all the problems that Michigan had, it is no wonder that they are still nowheres near a top team in the Big 10. This may take years to reverse.

[MartinBlank]

I am looking forward to this game.

A lot of Michigan fans on a few of their fan boards loved Brian Kelly before ND hired him. The just wins wherever he goes.

And now Rodriguez is getting more NCAA questions regarding his time at WVU-------could be a tough year for him.

[BigdaddyQH]

This is why this game is so critical to Michigan. If they lose to Notre Dame, the wrong message is sent. The team still will not believe in itself. RR is squarely on the hot seat. Losses to Ohio State and Penn State are pretty much a safe bet. They also must play Iowa and Wisconsin at home, and they more than likely will be dogs in those games. If a rebuilding team went 8-4, and lost to those 4 Big 10 teams, no one would complain too much. But if Michigan goes 7-5 or worse, Rich Rod is probably gone. Michigan is under the NCAA microscope right now for rules violations. West Virginia is aparently next. Look at what happened to USC. They are under NCAA investigation for rules violations in both the football and basketball program. To ease potential penalties, USC gets rid of both head coaches. (Do not think for a second that Pete Carroll wanted to leave Los Angeles. He was the #2 man in L.A, next to God). If Michigan does not have an 8-4 season or better, look for Michigan to cut their losses and fire RR.

[babyanni]

waiting for 0/u for this one...

[Ch3fDan]

Bullshit Lloyd Carr left Michigan with a losing attitude. I have never seen a better game plan than the one he came up with for the Florida game. People said that team didn't believe in him and he had totally lost it, that was the most fired up and spirited team I've ever watch play a game. I'm not saying Lloyd Carr was the best coach, but I think he got a raw deal and it's not fair to start blaming RichRod's issues on the way Carr left Michigan.

[blanda]

I'm a Lloyd Carr believer...he looks better a few years later...

[BigdaddyQH]

Michigan played a great game against Florida AFTER they knew that Carr was toast, and was leaving the program. This is quite common. The fact is that they could not beat App. State, Oregon, and Ohio State at home. They were not even competitive against Oregon and not really competitive against Ohio State, when the offense went M.I.A. They were also playing a 3 loss Florida team. Considering that Florida's non-con schedule consisted of Western Kentucky, Troy, Florida Atlantic, and a 6 loss Florida State, all at home, that is like playing a normal 5 loss team. The fact is that when Carr left Michigan, they were woefully inadequate on offense, and had a defense that ran hot and cold. Rich Rod did not do anything to help the defense in year one, but the offense never had a chance. Remember, recruiting was already starting to slide downhill at Michigan because of Carr's inability to defeat Ohio State or win a BCS Bowl game (0-3 in their last 3 apprearanes).

You guys are going through the "Grass is always Greener" syndrome. Michigan would have been in just as bad a shape, if not worse, if Carr had remained on. He could never beat Ohio State. Michigan had to find someone else. Now their choice of Rich Rod may, or may not have been a good one. Right now the jury is still out, but one more poor season and the jury will be in, and Rich Rod will be out.

[Ch3fDan]

I know what I'm going through, I've never been a RichRod fan. Also, don't try and down talk that Florida team. That was the one game every expert thought was a lock, and to try and give Carr no credit for that? C'mon... He was the one who came up with that scheme, he ran a semi-spread offense but threw the ball around, RichRod could have done the exact same thing but he ran a possible heismen in Mallet out of town. I'm not disagreeing with you on the fact that Lloyd left a lot on the table and the team came out flat in games they shouldn't have, but has Richrod done any better? No, last year was pitiful, it was sad to watch a completely flat team come out week after week.

Rich has got one more year left to do something, if he doesn't, send him home.


Bigdaddy you know your stuff, we just aren't seeing quite eye to eye on this, don't take it personally.

[wookieehumper]

Mallett would have left no matter who was coach. I wouldn't put the blame on richrod although he didn't help with his spread offense. Mallett just got homesick in his 1st year and decided to return closer to Texarkana.

That said, richrod is a dufus and it's gonna be a long season if he can't beat ND

[BigdaddyQH]

No way will I take this personally. This is what good conversation is all about. We agree that RichRod has to produce this year. We may disagree as to just how good Carr was, but that is O.K. All I know is that they never could beat my alma mater, USC, in the Rose bowl. I think they lost to Texas in a Rose Bowl also. But Carr is gone, and that is past history. I think that you would agree that the Michigan-Notre Dame game is a critical one for Michigan. What would accpet from RichRod this year? What kind of record?

[Ch3fDan]

Absolutely the Notre Dame game is critical, we have to beat the Irish. Yeah we did lose to Texas but that is a hard game to hold against us considering we lost in a shootout to a field goal. I remember watching that going nuts because Braylon was going off, 3 touchdowns, but every time we would take the lead VY would break a 30 yard run. We had no answer at all for the running spread attack they brought, but we certainty played with a lot of pride.

As far as what I expect:

Must win - Umass, BG, @Indiana, Illinois, @Purdue, Mich St
Atleast 2 of these - Uconn, @ND, Iowa, Wisconsin
Atleast 1 of these - @Penn St., @Osu

We NEED to show the ability to play on the road this year as well.

That's what I would expect RichRod to do this far into his career at a recruiting powerhouse like Michigan. Is it to much ask for? I don't think so. Some might say 9 wins is setting the bar too high but I don't think so, not with the recruiting power Michigan has, and not with the hype that was surrounding RichRod.

[BigdaddyQH]

I disagree on a win at Penn State or Ohio State. Michigan does not have that kind of talent. Other than that, we are in total agreement. I think that Michigan should win 8 games for Roch Rod to survive. Having siad that, if he manages to win 7 games and gets back into a decent bowl, I am sure that the new Michigan A.D. will deem that enough progress to keep him, unless his NCAA violations, if any,are just too much for the University to bear.

[Ch3fDan]

Michigan has, as of late, played Penn St. pretty well so I take that one back. To be OSU, though, was a big reason RichRod was brought in. So I think it's critical for him staying that he beats them or has one hell of a game against them.

[BigdaddyQH]

He can not beat them in Columbus this year, though I would love to see it. Next year, in Ann Arbor, will be the huge test. A loss there and he should be fired, no matter what his record is. Look at Charlie Weis. He never could beat Pete Carroll. Notre Dame waited 5 years. He had three chances at home to do it, and he could not. Ty Willingham had three shots at defeating USC, and lost all 3 games by 31 points. Ohio State has defeated Michigan 6 years in a row, and 8 out of the last 9 years. A loss to Ohio State this year may be accpetable, if Michigan fares well over-all. Another loss at home to Ohio State, which would be their 4th in a row and 5th out of the past 6 meetings, should not be tolerated, no matter what the circumstances are. At least that is the way I see it.

[Ch3fDan]

I'm not saying it's an absolute necessity to win the game, but we need to at least be competitive. We haven't given OSU a game since the 1 vs 2 matchup that put Ohio St. in their last championship. We come out flat against Ohio St. which makes no since, it's our biggest game of the year. I haven't seen Rich restore any real pride and energy back into the team and my patience with him is getting thin.

We will know what kind of team we have this year when we open at home vs. a good Uconn team. I hand it to Rich in that aspect, he isn't scheduling all cupcakes.

[BigdaddyQH]

Well, I would not call UMass and Bowling Green at home tough games. And as far as UConn goes, we are talking about a middle-of-the-road Big East team here. Again, at home. A quick look at the 2011 schedule finds that other than Notre Dame, Michigan plays no one, unless you consider Eastern and Western Michigan as viable opponents. And all of those games are at home. Michigan has not played a tough non-con schedule since 2002. Here is a list of non-con opponents other than Notre Dame for Michigan since 2006. Ball State, Central Michigan, Vanderbilt, App. State, Oregon, Eastern Michigan (twice), Utah, Miami (OH), Toledo, Western Michigan, and Deleware State. ALL games were played at home. That is as soft a schedule as you will ever see. Two BCS teams and 10 non BCS teams, two of which are FCS teams. No away games. And even with such a soft schedule, Michigan can not get into, or win bowl games (1 win in their last 5 bowl games). Michigan has won one bowl game since 2002. Part of the reason has to be the very soft non-con schedule that they play year after year.

[Ch3fDan]

Don't forget that Michigan plays Notre Dame every year who is a consistently good team out of conference. So between Notre dame and Uconn I think that is respectable.


Football season can't come soon enough......

[BigdaddyQH]

USC also plays Notre Dame every year, but still scheduled Ohio State, Auburn, Arkansas, and Nebraska to home and home series in recent years. We can agree on many things, but Michigan having a tough non-con schedule is not one of them. UConn is certainly not a Top 25 team. They return a lot of players, but only two on offense and two on defense are All Conference, and none are All America candidates. A team certainly better than the MAC teams and FCS teams that Michigan schedules, but certainly not a powerhouse by any stretch.

[Ch3fDan]

I'm not trying to say we are going through hell or making a huge challenge, but we aren't playing nobodies either. I mean aside from this year if you look at Wisconsin's non conference schedule it's a joke.

So after watching the spring game there are a few things I'm very excited about.

1.) Denard Robinson looked really damn good. He looked more confident and his throwing motion seemed 100x improved. He threw the ball into tight spaces and hit receivers in stride, after watching the spring game, I expect him to see the bulk of the playing time.

2.) Devin Gardner is the real deal. The guy looks a lot like Terrel Pryor out there, but he has a better and more over-the-top throwing motion. He seems to be the best passer out of the bunch and I feel like it's going to be really hard to keep him off the field.

3.) Roy Roundtree. He had 30 receptions the last 4 games of the season. He caught a 97 yard touchdown in the scrimmage and showed great break away speed. I expect big things out of him this year.



The run to pass ratio caught me way off guard, it seemed to me like it was almost 80/20 in favor of passing. Maybe Rich did this specifically to help solve his QB competition, or is the game plan going to change this year? I would like to see more passing, I think all 3 of the QB's can pass and more deep passes will help every aspect of the offense and yield less negative plays. We were far too predictable last year never throwing the ball more than 30 yards... I really hate and love having 3 good QBs that are so close in ability. It's great to have all that talent and have competition pushing them to do better, but it's not good for the rhythm of the offense, last year our transitions between Tate and Denard in game through the entire offense off. It's very, very hard to find a way to successfully switch between 2 QBs midgame without a hiccup, and nearly impossible with 3.

It should be interesting to see how it all unfolds, all 3 played well today, Denard impressed the most though.

[BigdaddyQH]

Remember these spring games are nothing more than orchestrated scrimmages. The reason why you saw so much passing is because Michigan's passing game was a total and complete disaster last season. Rich Rod has to find a QB, and he has to do it soon. Frankly, offenses like the one Rich Rod use rarely work in the long run. A good defense will beat them every time. I would much rather see Rich Rod go to more of a pro set. He will never get a QB that can really throw the ball well running that offense. If Rich Rod wants this team to do something this year, he had better settle on one QB. I totally agree with you that attempting to play all 3 QB's in a game is suicidal.

As far as the scheduling goes, other than Notre Dame, Michigan does not have a Top 50 team scheduled for next season. They also do not have anyone other than Notre Dame scheduled for 2012 and beyond except a trip to UConn in 2013. Michingan does this to avoid scheduling good non-con teams. They have admitted as much. They will never schedule a home and home against any Pac 10 team, because they can not defeat a Pac 10 team. They are 1-5 against the Pac 10 since 1999. Do not feel bad. The Big 10 is famous for this. Look at Indiana. Last year they start the season 3-0 with wins against Eastern Kentucky, Western Michigan, and Akron. They proceed to win one more game the entire season. They lose 47-7 at Virginia, the only non-con FBS team that they played. This year they play Townson, Western Kentucky, Akron and Arkansas State. Now that is pathetic. Last season Northwestern played the above mentioned Townson, winless Eastern Michigan, and Miami (OH). When they played a halfway decent FBS team (Syracuse), they lost. As a matter of fact, you can look through the entire Big 10 schedule, and with the exception of Illinois, no Big 10 team plays more than one decent FBS non-con team, if that. And people wonder why the Big 10 does not do well in bowl games generally. So it certainly is not just Michigan. It is the entire Big 10 being afraid to schedule more than one good non-con game.

[BigdaddyQH]

Big Ten Expansion May Be Coming Soon

Both CBS Sports and ESPN Sports are reporting that Big 10 expansion may be coming a lot sooner than people expect. According to the Chigago Tribune, meetings that will take place in Washington D.C. and Phoenix, starting today, could be the places where the Big 10 announces it's plans. The Trib also said that more than one team may be involved. The Big East seems like the likely target if more than one team is involved. If the Big 10 takes 3 teams from that conference, giving themselves a 1 team conference, Notre Dame's hand is forced. They will have to go to the Big 10 or face the possibility of having to be good enough to qualify for a BCS game, or play in 2nd and 3rd tier non BCS Bowls because the Five remaining BCS Conferences will swallow up all the 1st tier non BCS Bowls.

The expansion of the Big 10 would also force the Pac 10's hand. They would have to expand. There seems little doubt that the Pac 10 would immediately grab Utah, and would make a serious play for Colorado, opening the Denver and Salt Lake City television markerts up. Those two teams also make sense from a geographic point of view. You would have the Pac 12 (if you will) North, with the two Washington teams, the two Oregon teams, Colorado and Utah, and the South, with the two Arizona teams and the 4 California teams. The Pc 10 is looking to start a network in conjunction with the Big 12, or possibly the ACC. The Big 12 would make sense, seeing as the Pac 10 and Big 12 play two bowl games against each other already, one in San Diego, and the other in San Antonio. They also have a hoops tourney set up.

[JBQB107]

I'm hoping for a good turnout by the Big 10 this year, like last year. The Buckeyes got a run for their money

[BigdaddyQH]

I think that Iowa is the team to beat in the Big 10. I like their defense. I love their schedule, getting Penn State, Wisconsin, and Ohio State at home. I have never been a big Kirk Ferentz fan. I think he is over-rated as a Head Coach. I could be wrong. If I am wrong, Iowa will win the Big 10 title. If I am right, Iowa will find a way to blow it. This certainly is the best group of players that Iowa has had since 2002. If Iowa can not win the Big 10 with this group of players, and that schedule, they never will win a Big 10 Title with Ferentz at the helm.