Thursday's Front Page NCAAF Picks (Aug 30)

**Willie Bee** · 08-28-07, 11:06 AM

Mississippi State +18½ vs LSU

Game Time: 08/30/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The experts have pegged LSU as true national title contenders. But this is too many points for the Tigers to be laying in their opener on the road against the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

The annual SEC woodshed beating has been moved up in the schedule as the LSU Tigers invade Starkville to take on the Mississippi State Bulldogs to kick off each team's respective seasons.

This series has been completely one sided and ugly for quite some time now. To say LSU has owned the Bulldogs would be putting it very kindheartedly. The average score between these two clubs has been 42-7 in favor of the Tigers the last six seasons, and the lone cover came last year when the Bulldogs lost by 31 as 33-point road pups. The Tigers bolted out to a big lead, and then allowed their second and third stringers to duke it out after a prolonged weather delay ultimately allowing the Bulldogs to get within the spread.

The Tigers have gotten respect from the betting public since this line opened, as the number has climbed a full two points and doesn’t seem to be stopping. This is an awful lot of points to lay in a hostile venue, and I’m not so sure LSU is capable of covering this lumber, regardless of them being the more talented squad. This is the fourth season of the Sylvester Croom regime in Starkville, and this club must show improvement over the next three months or else heads are going to roll. The Bulldogs looked to have turned the corner in the second half of ’06 with solid efforts vs. Georgia, Kentucky, Alabama, Arkansas, and Mississippi. They return 14 starters from last year’s team and the main objective for this club in ’07 is to contend for an SEC Title. That might be a bit far fetched, but the talent on hand certainly leads me to believe that they’re capable of at least reaching a Bowl game for the first time in seven years.

With Virginia Tech on deck in Baton Rouge next week, the Tigers' full attention might not be on the opponent at hand and that’s usually a recipe for disaster. I’m by no means calling for a straight up win here by the home team, but I firmly believe they’re capable of staying within this lofty spread.

It’s the first week of the season, and anything can happen. Grab the points with the Bulldogs as they put forth a respectable effort vs. an LSU club many have destined to play in the National Championship.

Free Pick: Mississippi State +18½

**Willie Bee** · 08-28-07, 11:09 AM

LA-Monroe +3 versus Tulsa

Game Time: 08/30/2007 07:00 PM -
By: Mike Rose | who2beton.com

The Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks return 17 starters from a year ago, and that should give them the edge at home in Malone Stadium on Thursday against the Tulsa Golden Hurricane.

This certainly isn’t a matchup that will get one’s blood boiling, but it presents value nonetheless, and we’ll be supporting head coach Charlie Weatherbie and the home team.

I have the ULM Warhawks pegged to make some noise in the Sunbelt in ’07, and a win here will certainly get the program off on the right foot. It’s been 13 years since the Warhawks have had a winning football team, and that’s the #1 priority of this squad in ’07.

The end of 2006 gave us a glimpse of what the future might hold as ULM rattled off five straight covers to close out the year. They even gave SEC representative Kentucky all they could handle in their own backyard in a 42-40 defeat as 20-point road underdogs. The offense returns 17 starters from a year ago, and the groundwork has been laid the prior four seasons under Weatherbie and his staff. He proved to be a winner back in his days at Navy and Utah State (both went bowling under his tutelage), and I really feel its only a matter of time before he gets this program to its first ever bowl appearance.

Tulsa experienced great success under former head coach Steve Kragthorpe as they made bowl appearances in three of the past four years. However, Kragthorpe has moved on to greener pastures, and new head coach Todd Graham takes over the reins after putting forth a masterful effort at Rice a season ago. He and his staff will be implementing new schemes on both sides of the ball, and the 10 starters back -- Four on offense and six on defense -- leads me to believe it will take some time for this group to catch on. Tulsa has dropped 12 straight road openers, and unfortunately for them and their fans, I foresee that number increasing to 13 after this one.

Grab the points with the home team as they’ll be a very improved team (record wise) in ’07, and they have a better understanding of what their coach wants them to do.

Free Pick: Louisiana-Monroe +3

**pags11** · 08-28-07, 01:24 PM

why are these scamdicapers picks posted in here again?...

**crackerjack** · 08-28-07, 03:38 PM

I love how two so-called experts give opposite picks to the same game.

**pags11** · 08-28-07, 05:11 PM

no kidding crackerjack!...

**LT Profits** · 08-28-07, 05:59 PM

That was actually addressed in the baseball forum today because of conflicting picks. The fact is that we are all independent handicappers that have nothing to do with each other, so of course there are going to be disagreements from time to time, especially for an underdog player like me. I don't necessarily think disagreement is a bad thing, as well-written write-ups are usually more important than the picks themselves, as they provide reasoning that can be applied over and over.

Of course that is not to say that all the write-ups are of star quality.

**bigboydan** · 08-28-07, 09:23 PM

Originally posted by pags11

why are these scamdicapers picks posted in here again?...

Them posting there plays is no different than anyone elses here. It personally doesn't bother me at all.

**Razz** · 08-28-07, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by bigboydan

Them posting there plays is no different than anyone elses here.

There's something to be said for walking the company line, but this is ridiculous. You couldn't convince a 6-year old that they are posting their plays.

**Razz** · 08-28-07, 11:17 PM

By the way, I don't have a problem with this thread at all, don't assume by my previous comment that I do. Like LT said, there's a lot to be said for reading various opinions on games. Hell, a good friend of mine makes thousands each year with a handicapping/consensus service.
But it was more than a minor inconvenience and annoyance - and eventually the reason I did not post at SBR last fall - to see 3/4ths of the football threads on a page individual writeups on games by people who's plays were being posted by SBRForum Staff or some other inane username. Then, it was frustrating to see three threads on the same game by three different touts.
The current system is much improved, and I would like to commend SBR and particularly Willie Bee for that (which actually was the main reason I opened this thread in the first place). Well done gentlemen.

**pags11** · 08-29-07, 03:45 AM

razz,

good shit...I still hate touts/ scamdicappers...LT profits, guys like you should make your money with your wagers, not by selling your picks!...come on and get your hands dirty like the rest of us...

NEVER, AND I REPEAT EVER, PAY FOR PICKS GENTLEMEN...

**pags11** · 08-29-07, 03:46 AM

and by the way dan, some one could drop an atomic bomb in your basement and I don't think it would bother you...

**LT Profits** · 08-29-07, 07:50 AM

pags,

I actually make 90% of my income by BETTING my picks, so believe me my hands get very dirty every day.

I bet all major sports, so I only take three days off from betting per year (the MLB All-Star break).

As for the selling part of things, why not, as I look at it like a moonlighting job to make extra money. With three kids and two mortgages (and oh yeah, a stay-at-home wife), why not try to make as much money as possible?

Believe me, I understand the stigmatism attached to the so-called "tout" business, as sadly, as much as 80% of the guys in the business are indeed scam artists. But there are honest, hard-working handicappers out there that sell their plays to people that don't have the time to handicap plays themselves and don't want to be lumped into the "square" category. I see no difference between an honest capper that sells his services and any other kind of investment advisor.

**Willie Bee** · 08-29-07, 08:01 AM

Originally posted by Razz

But it was more than a minor inconvenience and annoyance - and eventually the reason I did not post at SBR last fall - to see 3/4ths of the football threads on a page individual writeups on games by people who's plays were being posted by SBRForum Staff or some other inane username. Then, it was frustrating to see three threads on the same game by three different touts.
The current system is much improved, and I would like to commend SBR and particularly Willie Bee for that (which actually was the main reason I opened this thread in the first place). Well done gentlemen.

Thanks, that's one of the things I did change about posting the front page plays here, trying to lump them into one thread (per day's schedule) instead of individual threads that many of y'all complained about. Should make it easier for all involved, whether you're one who doesn't want to read the plays or someone who does.

**pags11** · 08-29-07, 06:01 PM

LT profits,

If you make 90% of your money wagering, why the need for the extra 10% dude? I've hit as high as percentage as any capper (tout or non-tout) in here the last two or so years in college football and you don't see me selling my picks. I believe it's all about sharing information, giving and taking, and by selling my picks I would be doing more taking...if you want to come in here like the rest of us and share your picks while not being a tout, feel free...but I'll never look at you the same as I do as say buddybear, razz, imgv, austin, sirwinzalot, aces, etc...do you tell your clients, "now you need to hit 55% to break even 'cause you've hired me for my services, rather than your normal 52.5%"?...touts are scum, bottom line...you might be a good dude, but make your money betting the games bro...selling picks is for the birds...

**Willie Bee** · 08-30-07, 10:58 AM

Kent State +3½ at Iowa State

Game Time: 08/30/2007 08:00 PM -
By: LT Profits Sports Group | who2beton.com

Kent State returns 17 starters after improving rapidly last season, while Iowa State only has nine starters back from a team that was 4-8. Look for an outright upset tonight.

This is one of our favorite statistical situations, as this game features an underdog Kent State team getting more than a field goal that should have both a better defense and a better running game than their opponents from Iowa State.

The Golden Flashes have come a long way since finishing 1-10 straight up two years ago, as they improved to 6-6 SU last season while also going a nice 5-2 against the spread when cast in this underdog role. Kent returns a total of 17 starters from the 2006 squad, including versatile quarterback Julian Edelman, who threw for over 1800 yards last season and ran for 658 more, with 17 total touchdowns.

The combination of Edelman and running backs Eugene Davis and Greg keys helped key a rushing attack that averaged 158.4 yards per game on the ground. On the other side of the ball, the defense improved after an opening 44-0 loss at Minnesota last year, allowing just 17.9 points per game over the last 11 games. This unit should be solid again this season, led by an experience corps of linebackers.

On the other hand, the Cyclones slumped badly to finish 4-8 SU overall last year, and they were just 3-8 ATS in all of their lined games including a dismal 1-5 here at home. Iowa State has a new head coach in Gene Chizik, and the Clones return just four starters on offense and five starters on defense. This team averaged only 18.8 points per game while surrendering a generous 30.8 points per contest last season, and things do not figure to get better in the very near future with some many new faces on both sides of the ball.

Finally, Kent State would love to give the MAC a boost with a road win over a Big 12 opponent, and we look for the Flashed to go just that here.

Free Pick: Kent State +3½

**Willie Bee** · 08-30-07, 11:00 AM

Mississippi State Bulldogs +18 vs. LSU Tigers

Game Time: 08/30/2007 08:00 PM -
By: Joe Gavazzi | thegreengorilla.com

With expectations high for LSU this season, the line for this one has been set too high in their favor. Back Mississippi State at home tonight versus the Tigers.

Many of the nation’s handicappers are jumping on LSU due to their past history vs. Mississippi State and the expectations they will challenge for national supremacy.

They are wrong.

History does imply this will be a blowout as LSU is 11-1 against the spread in the series with an average win of 36 points per game the last six years. Despite the fact they are replacing departed QB JaMarcus Russell with senior Matt Flynn, their path is paved with an easy schedule that could well allow them to be playing for the National Championship. They are loaded across the board with veteran returning starters and in their two-deep.

But nary a word has been written about the fact that next week’s home game vs. Virginia Tech will go much further than this game in establishing their title expectations. They will most assuredly limit their game plan this week.

On the other side is an aroused Bulldog team with plenty to prove. With a rare chance to showcase their wares on national TV, expect Sylvester Croom’s boys to show far better than their 9-25 straight up record of the first three years under Croom. A highly emotional home dog on national TV keeps this much closer than the linemaker expects.

Free Pick: Mississippi State +18

**Willie Bee** · 08-30-07, 11:03 AM

Utah State Aggies +7 versus UNLV Rebels

Game Time: 08/30/2007 08:05 PM -
By: Alex Smart | who2beton.com

Utah State has dominated this series in recent years and will have the crowd behind them tonight. Cash on the Aggies at home when they host the UNLV Rebels.

The UNLV Runnin' Rebels enter this contest against Utah State having lost 15 straight road games straight up by an average of 23 points per game, covering just two of those contests.

Utah State, despite an ugly season last year, should be greatly improved this season with 11 starters on defense back, and 17 starters overall. I know the Aggies do not instill confidence in their betting backers, but it must be noted that they played the 27th-toughest schedule in the country last year and learned a lot from playing against four schools that ranked among the top 10 in total offense.

It must also be noted that UNLV has an ugly history in this series losing nine of the last 10 meetings with Utah State. The Aggies have won three straight meetings, outscoring the Rebels by a 104-45 count.

With UNLV freshman QB Travis Dixon expected to make this start, and last year's starter Rocky Hinds less than 100%, do not be surprised if the Aggies actually makes a game of this. With that said, take the points.

Free Pick: Utah State +7

**pags11** · 08-30-07, 01:16 PM

my head is spinning...

**HAPPY BOY** · 08-30-07, 01:47 PM

maybe Ill play tonight or maybe I won't

**bigboydan** · 08-30-07, 03:41 PM

Originally posted by HAPPY BOY

maybe Ill play tonight or maybe I won't

Well, I know it's football season when I see you posting again on a regular basis HB.

Good to see you back bro.

**pags11** · 08-30-07, 05:39 PM

yeah, GL this season happy boy...