Alabama Crimson Tide tops futures

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  • Chance Harper
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 07-20-07
    • 788

    #1
    Alabama Crimson Tide tops futures
    Alabama Crimson Tide tops futures

    The freshman class for 2010 is signed and delivered, and college football is ready to take a long, offseason nap, right? Wrong! There's no offseason on the collegiate gridiron these days.

    There is no offseason for college football. Coaches are drawing up strategies, players are choosing schools, and betting odds are starting to roll in on the 2011 BCS National Championship futures market.


    If you’re interested in making money come September, now is the time to start preparing.

    Alabama ascending
    The Alabama Crimson Tide are your 2010 national champions, and they are in prime position to defend their title as 3-1 favorites. Far behind in second place are the Ohio State Buckeyes at 25-4. The remaining 118 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision are priced at 12-1 or longer.

    This will be Nick Saban’s fourth year in Tuscaloosa, and you won’t find very many head coaches out there with such an impressive track record – at least in college. Saban led the LSU Tigers to the national championship in 2001 and 2003 before a disappointing couple of years with the Miami Dolphins. Alabama’s turnaround under Saban has been impressive in both speed and scale:

    2007: 7-6 SU, 3-9 ATS, Independence Bowl win
    2008: 12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS, Sugar Bowl loss
    2009: 14-0 SU, 9-5 ATS, BCS Championship win

    There isn’t much upward mobility left for Alabama, but Saban’s stellar recruiting keeps the Crimson Tide in the pole position for another championship.

    Meanwhile, the competition level among the elites has eased off somewhat with the defection of former USC Trojans head coach Pete Carroll to the NFL’s Seattle Seahawks. The Trojans are still in the mix at 12-1 (tied with the Oregon Ducks) despite Carroll’s departure; his one-time offensive co-ordinator, Lane Kiffin, has abandoned the Tennessee Volunteers (60-1) after just one season to return to his alma mater.

    And hanging in there at 14-1: the Texas Longhorns, who have already gotten more of a taste of life after Colt McCoy than they expected. Garrett Gilbert was a true freshman when he came in for the injured McCoy during the 2010 BCS Championship against Alabama.

    Gilbert was downright awful at first, but warmed up to the task and nearly led the Longhorns to an improbable comeback. He’s a blue-chip prospect who can only benefit from his early exposure to the college stage.

    The dotted line
    National Signing Day has come and gone, and for a change, Saban does not have the best recruiting class in the country. Nope, he’s slipped all the way to No. 3 on the ESPN150 and No. 5 at Scout.com after two years in the top spot. Still fantastic work, but just a step below this year’s consensus No. 1: Urban Meyer and the Florida Gators (14-1).

    Meyer’s health problems and brief retirement didn’t stop him from signing four of the Top 10 recruits on the board, including DE Ronald Powell and DT Dominique Easley. Tim Tebow may be gone, but if QB John Brantley can perform as well on the field as he did during the 2009 spring practice, Florida has the other pieces in place for another run at the title.

    The No. 2-rated class belongs to Texas. Mack Brown has assembled a very strong cast of freshmen, beginning with DE Jackson Jeffcoat, whose father Jim played for the Dallas Cowboys. Speaking of bloodlines, Brown also signed QB Case McCoy, Colt’s younger brother and a natural fit in the Longhorns offense.

    Saban’s catch for Alabama starts with the top-rated QB Phillip Sims, who should eventually take over for Greg McElroy, but the real story for Tide fans is how Saban was able to fill his one glaring need in the secondary with the likes of CB Demarcus Milliner and S Jarrick Williams.

    Kiffin had the toughest job of all the aforementioned coaches. Imagine trying to hold onto Carroll’s recruits as the NCAA prepares to grill your new employers about possible sanctions regarding the Reggie Bush affair. Not easy, but Kiffin also had the benefit of bringing in some of his own would-be recruits at Tennessee.

    Most prominent among those: WR Markeith Ambles, who broke his commitment with the Volunteers to reunite with Kiffin. As always when it comes to college football, the rich get richer.
    Last edited by SBR Jonelyn; 05-13-15, 10:16 AM. Reason: image does not exist
  • BigdaddyQH
    SBR Posting Legend
    • 07-13-09
    • 19530

    #2
    Nice post, but as I have mentioned in a previous post, the chances of Alabama repeating are very slim. No team has ever won back to back BCS Championship games, and only two teams have played in back to back games. USC won in 04 and lost in 05, and Ohio State lost in 06 and 07. I think Alabama at 3-1 is a terrible wager. THe odds are much too short. They lose a lot on defense, and play a much tougher schedule. Now this is not to say that they will not have a very good team. They will. But with teams like Boise State and Ohio State looking very much like two teams that can run the table, 'Bama may not even get back to the big game.

    One other thing. The last team to win the BCS Championship as favorites was the 2004 USC team. I believe that they are the ONLY team to have done this in the BCS era. I would look for some value, if you are going to tie money up for a long period of time.
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