WAC vs MWC

**spongerat** · 12-17-09, 02:44 AM

I like it wyoming isn't very good and fresno has a high powered offense

**iceminers26** · 12-17-09, 03:43 AM

good luck

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-17-09, 11:18 AM

Wyooming really has not shown a lot, but many picked them to finish dead last in the MWC. Fresno State has shown a lot against some very good teams. I expect Fresno State to win rather easily, but I am not willing to give tht many points.

**LLXC** · 12-17-09, 11:47 AM

I'm on Fresno St -10 -120. GL.

**porterkid69** · 12-17-09, 05:57 PM

Not that it means anything to this game, but here are some WAC bowl trends that I read on another forum

WAC
The WAC will send one less team to bowl games in ’09-10 than it did
a year ago. Over the last two years, WAC teams have only won two of
nine postseason games, so its somewhat surprising that three of the
four teams from the league are favored in this year’s games. Of the
four games involving WAC teams, three are against Conference USA
or Mountain West opponents, and history shows that the underdog
is the only way to go in such contests. All signs point to a shootout in
Hawaii between Nevada & SMU as well.
- The last two holiday seasons have been rough on WAC teams, as
they were just 2-7 SU & 3-6 ATS in combined ’07 & ’08 bowl games.
- The last decade has seen dogs dominate bowl games involving WAC
teams, as the underdogs own a 16-19 SU & 23-12 ATS (66%) record
since ’99.
- Don’t play WAC teams as favorites, 7-8 SU & 4-11 ATS (27%), since ’99.
They tend to give up a lot of points too in that role, 34.4 PPG, resulting
in 11 OVER’s during that stretch.
- WAC teams as double-digit dogs in bowl games have won just once
outright, but are a perfect 5-0 ATS (100%).
- The WAC holds its own when matched against BCS-conference
opponents, 12-12 SU & 14-8 ATS (64%) since ’97, including 10-4 ATS
(71%) as an underdog of a field goal or more

**porterkid69** · 12-17-09, 06:00 PM

Here are the trends for the MWC

Mountain West
For the second straight season, TCU is the only one of five Mountain
West Conference bowl teams that is favored. That is actually good
news in one respect however, as the Horned Frogs are representing
the league in the Fiesta Bowl in January, sporting an undefeated
record. Wyoming appears to be in a good spread covering spot vs.
Fresno State based upon the MWC’s record as a large underdog, while
that game and the TCU-Boise State showdown are expected to be
lower scoring tilts.
- The Mountain West has been one of the more consistent performing
bowl teams this decade, going 19-14 ATS (58%) overall.
- The MWC defenses have stepped up in bowl games of late, holding
nine of their L14 opponents to 20 points or less, resulting in 10
UNDER’s (71%). As a bowl game favorite, Mountain West teams can
really be counted on to go UNDER the total, 11-2 (85%) since ’02.
- As underdogs of a TD or more in bowl games, Mountain West teams
have covered six straight games (100%) and are a money-making 3-3
SU in those games.
- In expected lower scoring bowl games, or those with posted totals
of less than 47, Mountain West teams have been very successful, 8-2
SU & ATS (80%).

**cmatth1326** · 12-17-09, 07:01 PM

The problem is Fresno does not beat teams by much. For some reason the wins that they have are pretty close games.

**Night-Tripper** · 12-18-09, 09:36 PM

I've got 3* on Fresno State @ -12 and another 1.5* on Fresno State @ -10.5.

**Cornerback** · 12-19-09, 12:30 AM

What do you guys think about the total at 55? Fresno D sucks and Wyoming D sucks. Thoughts???

**Night-Tripper** · 12-19-09, 02:31 AM

Originally posted by Cornerback

What do you guys think about the total at 55? Fresno D sucks and Wyoming D sucks. Thoughts???

Seeing as I can't pick a total to save my life, I only mess with them in teasers.

But, when I do play them, I always go over.

**BiffTFinancial** · 12-19-09, 08:30 AM

Originally posted by Cornerback

What do you guys think about the total at 55? Fresno D sucks and Wyoming D sucks. Thoughts???

i do not like the over. lean towards the under, but i'll almost definitely no-play it and stick to Fresno -10.5. i capped this game at 32-16. the reason that i can't go higher than 16-17 on Wyoming is that they averaged 5 ppg in their 6 losses [never scoring more than 10 in a given game], nearly 29 ppg in their 6 wins. i don't think that Wyoming can win this game, and although Fresno's defense is suspect, i still think Wyoming is most likely to score between 10-17, which will make reaching the over tough.

that said, others on the boards seem to like the over, but that's my reasoning for no-playing it. bol to you whatever you decide.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-19-09, 10:04 AM

Again, Fresno State plays up to, or down to, it's opponents level of play. They were 3-3 as favorites this year and 1-10 as favorites last year. Conversely, they were 3-2 as dogs this year and 1-1 as dogs last year. That tells me that 10.5 is way too many points to give away here.

**Cornerback** · 12-19-09, 10:51 AM

Originally posted by BiffTFinancial

i do not like the over. lean towards the under, but i'll almost definitely no-play it and stick to Fresno -10.5. i capped this game at 32-16. the reason that i can't go higher than 16-17 on Wyoming is that they averaged 5 ppg in their 6 losses [never scoring more than 10 in a given game], nearly 29 ppg in their 6 wins. i don't think that Wyoming can win this game, and although Fresno's defense is suspect, i still think Wyoming is most likely to score between 10-17, which will make reaching the over tough.

that said, others on the boards seem to like the over, but that's my reasoning for no-playing it. bol to you whatever you decide.

That's exactly what I was thinking. We all know Fresno can score but can Wyoming? I think Fresno scores into the 40's and Wyoming into the 20's. But like Bigdaddy says Fresno does like to play up/down to their competition. I still like the over though lol

**BiffTFinancial** · 12-20-09, 08:42 AM

Originally posted by Cornerback

That's exactly what I was thinking. We all know Fresno can score but can Wyoming? I think Fresno scores into the 40's and Wyoming into the 20's. But like Bigdaddy says Fresno does like to play up/down to their competition. I still like the over though lol

here's hoping i cap the rest of the bowl games better than i did the New Mexico bowl. i think that the most telling factor against Fresno was the one that i decided to overlook due to the weight of a number of factors in their favor: the fact they they were 5-0 ATS as bowl dog and 0-4 ATS as bowl chalk. BigdaddyQH said it best, re: their playing up to/down to competition.

if Wyoming can get some speed on the outside with their recruiting class this year, they could be a dangerous team next fall. despite the bowl win, they're still likely to enter next season under the radar.

**darrell74** · 12-20-09, 09:27 PM

I live here I watch them play, alot

Take TCU, Utah, Air Force under

Fade BYU

**HoldEmHook!!** · 12-20-09, 09:46 PM

I will fade BYU....