My Bowl Season Card

**2daBank** · 12-15-09, 06:33 AM

also like smu/nevada ovr 73

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-15-09, 10:19 AM

First of all, thank you for the kind comments. They are appreciated. I am nowheres near perfect, but I do try to pass on years of knowledge plus what I have learend from Vegas on to others. Now, as far as your wagers go:

Be very careful about USC. I am a USC alum, and I can tell you that this is not a good spot for them. This season was a disaster. I know they only lost 4 games, but they really looked bad against Arizona and had a reason to win that game. If USC really wants to send their seniors out with a win, and a perfect bowl record, they have the talent to do so, but if they just mail this game in, they will definately not cover, and could well lose it. 9 points is a lot to give in what should be a low scoring game. Don't bet on the weather either. This time of year, it could easily be wet up in San Fran.

We like the Kentucky wager. It is another of these SEC/ACC battles and we all know how they have gone so far this year. Kentucky loves to win bowl games. Clemson finished the year on a major downer, losing their last 2 games. They have also lost their last 3 bowl games. 7 points looks very solid here.

Wisconsin is a fade play for us. Miami simply has way too much overall team speed. Their defense gave up 28 or more points 6 times this past season. Miami is capable of scoring basically at will, and has too many offensive weapons, plus team speed. There is also a huge SOS difference. Miami has an 18. Wisconsin has a 68. WE will be on Miami in this one.

For the same reason why we like Miami over Wisky, we also like Ga. Tech over Iowa. Iowa has not played any team with the overall team speed that Ga. Tech has. The Triple option will simply run over Iowa. The health of Iowa QB Stanzi will also be in question.

We NEVER buy points, so your buying OU rubs us the wrong way. What will you be laying? -170? Are you really willing to give over 3/2 odds plus points and take OU? Tis will probably be a low scoring game. Stanford loses Luck, but Pritchard has started before for Stanford. If he can complete a few passes, Stanford has an outside shot. OU's offense is really helter-skelter. This game is a pass for us.

Your plays on 1/2 look good. We have no problem with either one of them. Your total plays also look good. Oregon -3 also looks good. Again, we get back to team speed. This is what has killed the Big 10 in the previous two years bowl game wise. GL with your plays.

**2daBank** · 12-15-09, 10:34 AM

thank you. im have no doubt already changed my thinking on the wis/mia gm at 1st mia incosistancy and the fact i dont believe they have seen a running gm this physical had me thinking them but i do like mia and there team speed. i also here you on the usc motivation factor and certainly love the under dont wanna lay the 9 in this 1 but seems like a good teaser spot unless as you said usc just doesnt care. the ou gm i wouldnt buy points on the str8 bet but i feel like you low scoring so sure im paying the-170 but parleyed with the under. so im clearly off of wisc. what do you think about my thoughs on the other 1s ive explained above or am i still doing the wrong thing?

**2daBank** · 12-15-09, 10:36 AM

thanx again all year whether i agreed with some off the things you had to say i always enjoyed hearing your take on things

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-15-09, 10:49 AM

There is no "wrong things" in wagering unless you are talking about money management issues, exotic plays, or buying points. That is why there are upsets. We can only use our best judgements and go from there. You may be right on every play you have. As far as picking teams go, I can show you games this year where a team was an overwhelming play on every angle, trend, and 'capping technique known to man, but lost. I can also show you teams that were that solid a play and won. It is the nature of the beast.

In general, when it comes to 'capping bowl games, I look for the same thing as I do in regular season games with these exceptions. I give more weight to the strength of schedule ratings. I also look for teams who worked their way up to games, playing teams who slid down to the game. I look for teams who want to be there against teams who do not. I also look for team speed and overall conference speed comparisons. I watch the lines a lot closer, and tend to wager as late as possible, because we all know how many kids get into trouble with grades, the law, or some other team infraction and end up watching these games on T.V. The fact is that there are only two times a year when you can wager on games so far ahead of schedule. Those are before game 1, when the futures come out, and in the bowl season. So bowl wagering is a lot different because you have a lot more time to make your decisions.

**Serbone** · 12-15-09, 10:49 AM

I appreciate your picks but there is almost no justification for them, no write ups, so what is the point?

If 20 people pick Fresno and 20 pick Wyoming, so what is accomplished? If you could write them up, you perhaps can provide some insignt that others might not have to help everybody here.

I like to gather all the info on sos, injuries, suspensions, off-def stats, weather, motivation, etc. and bet at the last minute, but when I see someone's thread I sometimes support the pick with my insight, or challenge the pick with my insight, somehow hoping to provide info that might help someone else.

Also, why pick them all this early, what if, for example, you see the SEC teams surprisingly losing to the spread, so possibly the SEC is overrated this yr (I do not think that, I just am saying for the sake of example) and one of your SEC teams that you picked TODAY plays Jan 1st... stick to your early pick or re-assess? That is one of the reasons why I like to wait day to day, game to game, during the bowl season. I have a lot of "leans" and even "very strong leans" (Mia, Mizzou, Aub, LSU), already, and some I think I will definitely stick to... but not ready to commit pending more info.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-15-09, 10:53 AM

In the bowl season, the only reason why you should make plays early is for middling pruposes. There are just too many things that can happen between now and game time that can drastically change the line. Look what happened at Michigan State. 10 players suspended, and more on the way. Lots of schools are finishing their finals. Who is going to flunk? Who is going to go out and get drunk and cause a problem? Who is going to get suspended for missing a team meeting?

**2daBank** · 12-15-09, 10:56 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

There is no "wrong things" in wagering unless you are talking about money management issues, exotic plays, or buying points. That is why there are upsets. We can only use our best judgements and go from there. You may be right on every play you have. As far as picking teams go, I can show you games this year where a team was an overwhelming play on every angle, trend, and 'capping technique known to man, but lost. I can also show you teams that were that solid a play and won. It is the nature of the beast.

In general, when it comes to 'capping bowl games, I look for the same thing as I do in regular season games with these exceptions. I give more weight to the strength of schedule ratings. I also look for teams who worked their way up to games, playing teams who slid down to the game. I look for teams who want to be there against teams who do not. I also look for team speed and overall conference speed comparisons. I watch the lines a lot closer, and tend to wager as late as possible, because we all know how many kids get into trouble with grades, the law, or some other team infraction and end up watching these games on T.V. The fact is that there are only two times a year when you can wager on games so far ahead of schedule. Those are before game 1, when the futures come out, and in the bowl season. So bowl wagering is a lot different because you have a lot more time to make your decisions.

oh i totaly agree about right wrong play. there beeen a few brutal losses for me in nfl and after the gm ill be the 1st to say i wouldnt change my bet cause i know i capped it correctly and just caught some bad breaks after all it is gambling(hurts way more than gms i just totally capped wrong i can live with that) thanx again for you taking the time to answer my questions...gl this bowl season..here's to every1 killin it these next few weeks

**2daBank** · 12-15-09, 11:00 AM

serbone..i understand i havnt wrote these up yet but if youve ever came across my nfl threads i will not bet a gm i cannot write out exactly why im taking a team and how i see the gm playing out this is just how i start and like to hear what every1 elses perspectives on the games are. this is basically my ruff draft and every gm i end up playing i promise i will try not to disapoint w the write-ups just bare with me they will be coming in the next few days

**2daBank** · 12-15-09, 11:03 AM

in the meantime feel free to give any thougths you have on thse gms or any other as my favorite thing about this forum is getting other ppls perspectives on gms trust me there's nothing i hate more than ppl who post picks w/o thought or reasoning behind them trust me they are there i just havnt got 2 typing them up yet

**2daBank** · 12-15-09, 11:05 AM

as for picking early not bettin them yet just trying to establish a blueprint for me to follow

**Serbone** · 12-15-09, 11:20 AM

Originally posted by 2daBank

serbone..i understand i havnt wrote these up yet but if youve ever came across my nfl threads i will not bet a gm i cannot write out exactly why im taking a team and how i see the gm playing out this is just how i start and like to hear what every1 elses perspectives on the games are. this is basically my ruff draft and every gm i end up playing i promise i will try not to disapoint w the write-ups just bare with me they will be coming in the next few days

OK, that is good to know, thanks!

If you search my posts, you will see that I jump in sometimes, last nite a lot of posters declared they were betting AZ, mostly, because AZ is better than SF. I pointed out AZ had almost nothing to play for, would clinch NFCW with one win in final 4 games, playing SF, Det, SL, then GB, so they were not too worried... and that they could not catch NO or Minny for home field advantage. Whereas SF is driven by positive coach and longshot possibility of playoffs.. and also would be the kind of team that strives to get to .500. Look it up.

**BigdaddyQH** · 12-15-09, 11:49 AM

Agreed. I often do the same thing. Last night, when one of the posters started a thread, making what I thought was a careless wager on Arizona, I tried to jump in and explain the broad generalities about money management. It fell on deaf ears. But I will do that. I list my plays on my spreadsheet. I use -110 to win 100 for simplicity purposes. I do not believe that anyone should reveal the wsize of their wagers. This is how people get nailed by the Feds. Use units. You will notice that I rarely, if ever stray from the my -110 to win 100 wagers.

I also have one other major advantage. Other than the occasional "questionable" NCAA or NBA Hoops game and the ponies, I do not wager on any other sport. Football is it. I have a business devoted to football information and have 5 employees. We provide information to many of the maga that you read. Football is a year round jobfor me. As we speak, we are already looking at the 2010 season. Here is a sample. Everyone expects Washington to have a breakout year next season, especially with Locker coming back. With games at BYU, USC, Oregon, Cal, and Arizona, and a home game against Nebraska, you may not see as big a breakout as you think.

**2daBank** · 12-15-09, 11:49 AM

ya i made small play on arz just becuase i got burnt going against the obvious play with dal gm. but my big play was under in that gm as i didnt see a lot of points in that 1

**2daBank** · 12-15-09, 11:52 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

Agreed. I often do the same thing. Last night, when one of the posters started a thread, making what I thought was a careless wager on Arizona, I tried to jump in and explain the broad generalities about money management. It fell on deaf ears. But I will do that. I list my plays on my spreadsheet. I use -110 to win 100 for simplicity purposes. I do not believe that anyone should reveal the wsize of their wagers. This is how people get nailed by the Feds. Use units. You will notice that I rarely, if ever stray from the my -110 to win 100 wagers.

I also have one other major advantage. Other than the occasional "questionable" NCAA or NBA Hoops game and the ponies, I do not wager on any other sport. Football is it. I have a business devoted to football information and have 5 employees. We provide information to many of the maga that you read. Football is a year round jobfor me. As we speak, we are already looking at the 2010 season. Here is a sample. Everyone expects Washington to have a breakout year next season, especially with Locker coming back. With games at BYU, USC, Oregon, Cal, and Arizona, and a home game against Nebraska, you may not see as big a breakout as you think.

i agree and im just not as high on that qb as every1 else is imo if he was the truth he would take that next step and enter the draft

**2daBank** · 12-15-09, 11:55 AM

i notice post you make quite often serbone and its always something worth reading in my opinion. i hope we can work together the rest of this bowl season and throughout the nfl playoffs. always enjoy reading and discussing gms with ppl who know wtf they are talking about