Bowl System from last year

[rdskipper]

I'm posting the thread from the bowl system that floated thru this site the last two years (24-3, the last two years). I haven't had time to look at this year's games but didn't know if OP was still around.

http://forum.sbrforum.com/college-fo...last-year.html

[Smails Kid]

I was looking for this, too, and luckily remembered the criteria ... so at first glance, these teams fall into the top 60 category according to the Sagarin SOS ratings thru Saturday, Dec. 5:

Wyoming
Oregon State
Cal
Miami, FL
Mizzou
Minnesota
Auburn
LSU
Oregon
Florida
Arkansas

Don't know if Sagarin is what is used to determine SOS, so if another source exists, please update.

Thanks, and gl to all!

[Child_Please]

Here is what I came up with. We were similar on 9, but divided on 2. I had Nev and S FLa you had Wyoming and Minny


Ore st
Nev - Ranked 56th sos is 82 but SMU is worse at 92.
Cal
Miami
Mizzou
Auburn
Lsu
Fla
South Fla - Ranked 51 and NIU sos 112
Arkansas
TCU

- Fresno sos is worse but they are ranked in top 60 and wyoming isn't
- Minny neither one is ranked in top 60

not saying im right and your wrong would like to clarify this all so we can get down on the games and make a killing like last year.

[THE PROFIT]

I have been arguing with the goofs over at the other forum about this for 2 days. Maybe someone here knows their shit! Here are the games as I see them with the criteria & parameters with the value.

Or.St-1.5 over BYU
Cal-3 over Utah
Miami-3 over Wisc
Mizzou-3 over Navy (no line yet but that's what it should be if Navy kills Army like they should)
LSU+3 over Penn St
Fla-10 over Cincy
Ark-7.5 over E.Car
Oregon-3.5 over OhSt (almost fits, close enough for government work!)

[Chi_archie]

the "system" will always have holes

[tblues2005]

Will get a good look in this. Thanks for the info here.

[THE PROFIT]

What I understand it to be is this, & may i say this is a very good way to HELP handicap any game. What makes it so good in bowls is the public doesn't take into consideration the SOS, & you have many mismatched teams in bowls out of conference. The public sees a 10-2 team ranked in the AP top 20 & says they'll kill a 7-5 team. They don't realize that 7-5 has clawed through a tough ass schedule & barely got beat by 4 top 10 teams!!!

Take the top 60 Power ranked teams & fade the ones whos SOS rank is worse than 60.

[THE PROFIT]

Nevada is ranked in the top 60. SMU is not. SMU's SOS is worse than Nevada. I'm not saying its not a good play, but it doesn't fit the paramaters because there will be no value in the line. The point is to get 2 teams in the top 60, who the public will feel should be ranked rather close. Then fins the one with the worse SOS & fade them. Taking Nev over SMU is just taking a better team over a worse one!!! The line will show that.
Now LSU & Penn St. on the other hand. Both in the top 20 Power rank. LSU SOS is 16, PSU is 83. Yet the public feels Penn St. is favored. Theres the VALUE!

[tblues2005]

Thanks The Profit. That does look like value on taking LSU no doubt.

[Smails Kid]

Here is what I came up with. We were similar on 9, but divided on 2. I had Nev and S FLa you had Wyoming and Minny


Ore st
Nev - Ranked 56th sos is 82 but SMU is worse at 92.
Cal
Miami
Mizzou
Auburn
Lsu
Fla
South Fla - Ranked 51 and NIU sos 112
Arkansas
TCU

- Fresno sos is worse but they are ranked in top 60 and wyoming isn't
- Minny neither one is ranked in top 60

not saying im right and your wrong would like to clarify this all so we can get down on the games and make a killing like last year.

No, you are right ... I think the numbers were starting to run together through tired eyes. Wyoming and Minny are not plays, but Nevada and S. Florida are based on the criteria.

So, what the final listing then?

[Pepsimansd]

Bowl System Check( actual No.s)

Rating Sos
*Wyoming 63.28 57
Fresno State 74.42 74

*Central Fla 72.02 85
Rutgers 74.89 100

Midd Tenn 68.67 119
*So Mississippi 70.10 101 both categories

Byu 79.57 77
*Oregon St. 82.65 21 both categories

Utah 77.93 73
*California 79.02 17 both categories

Smu 66.24 90
*Nevada 73.61 82 both categories

Ohio 68.37 107
*Marshall 66.64 75

Wisconsin 77.82 68
*Miami Fla 83.99 18 both categories

*Air Force 73.76 92
Houston 75.98 97

Iowa St. 68.63 70
*Minnesota 70.88 30 both categories

Northwestern 69.97 94
*Auburn 80.16 14 both categories

*Lsu 85.66 16 both categories
Penn St. 81.53 83

Cincinnati 88.27 63
*Florida 93.71 27 both categories

Northern Ill 66.39 121
*South Fla 75.08 62 both categories

*Arkansas 82.56 13 both categories
East Carolina 75.10 61

*Boise State 86.63 15
Tcu 89.56 84

*Troy 69.53 106
Central Michigan 77.49 111


Rating and strength of schedule are courtesy of Sagarin. Please
check my numbers fellows and let me know of any errors!

[THE PROFIT]

Rating Sos
*Wyoming 63.28 57
Fresno State 74.42 74

*Central Fla 72.02 85
Rutgers 74.89 100

Midd Tenn 68.67 119
*So Mississippi 70.10 101 both categories

Byu 79.57 77
*Oregon St. 82.65 21 both categories

Utah 77.93 73
*California 79.02 17 both categories

Smu 66.24 90
*Nevada 73.61 82 both categories

Ohio 68.37 107
*Marshall 66.64 75

Wisconsin 77.82 68
*Miami Fla 83.99 18 both categories

*Air Force 73.76 92
Houston 75.98 97

Iowa St. 68.63 70
*Minnesota 70.88 30 both categories

Northwestern 69.97 94
*Auburn 80.16 14 both categories

*Lsu 85.66 16 both categories
Penn St. 81.53 83

Cincinnati 88.27 63
*Florida 93.71 27 both categories

Northern Ill 66.39 121
*South Fla 75.08 62 both categories

*Arkansas 82.56 13 both categories
East Carolina 75.10 61

*Boise State 86.63 15
Tcu 89.56 84

*Troy 69.53 106
Central Michigan 77.49 111


Rating and strength of schedule are courtesy of Sagarin. Please
check my numbers fellows and let me know of any errors!

I have no idea what you're doing with this & these #'s. Please explain

[jjgold]

Systems run hot and cold, this year it might not hold up but good luck and solid info.

[Brock Landers]

the only thing i know is, the OVERS are always solid plays in the early bowl games, meaning everything prior to Jan 1 games.

[Serbone]

Where is Machine Choice?
He was pretty good last yr, the system you refer to did rather well.
He was struggling early this yr and disappeared!
C'mon back!

[Serbone]

the only thing i know is, the OVERS are always solid plays in the early bowl games, meaning everything prior to Jan 1 games.

Also DOGS in early games where big school "name" team is disappointed, but small school is fired up to beat a "name" team!

[HoulihansTX]

Where is Machine Choice? He was pretty good last yr, the system you refer to did rather well. He was struggling early this yr and disappeared! C'mon back!

He bet every game on the board about a month ago, and got crushed. He must have been drunk when he decided to make that choice. He has not been heard of since.

[Cougar Bait]

There are other missing posters as well. Haven't seen MSU around lately...

[nobull]

joe public will win the 1st week & get raped the 2nd week of bowl games

[minet123]

[G's pks]

Where is Machine Choice?
He was pretty good last yr, the system you refer to did rather well.
He was struggling early this yr and disappeared!
C'mon back!

Glad I read all the posts before I responded. First of all great to see someone trying to help.

As far as machine choice goes, he had been drinking heavily and also went all in four times this year losing all four. Unless he is using another name he is not around. His last ditch effort was taking five massive ML favorites in a parlay... I believe the loser was OKl the day Bradford got hurt.

The next thing for some odd reason he tried to do was apply this system to the regular season... Of course applying a system at a time other than when it works is a failure, he ended up going around 2-13 and that was it for him...

GL with this system, might play a few.

[Cougar Bait]

There are already a few plays here that look solid. I suggest using it as a tool, but not as a blind gimme that this thing goes 10-2 again. I guess what I am saying is it might be better to cap the game, then check the system, and if the team you feel is getting good value also falls on the same side as the system, make it a play.

[Pepsimansd]

Sorry Profit,
Explanation is definitely needed.

The Red is the team with the better strength of schedule.
The Green is the team that has the better power ranking and better SOS.
1st row of no.s is the power ranking.
2nd row of no.s is the strength of schedule

Sorry the the format came out lousy! Let me know what you think.

[Serbone]

He bet every game on the board about a month ago, and got crushed. He must have been drunk when he decided to make that choice. He has not been heard of since.

I know.
He might be on here with a new identity.
He had a great schtick, discipline, etc, was on a roll but "lost it" and bet on every game.

[snapstick]

2009-2010 NCAAF Bowl Selections

I made a post for these plays last night and i posted the plays for this bowl season. Your welcome to come over and check my numbers with yours so we are all on the same page.

[Irish Lumberjack]

should be interesting to follow

[Pepsimansd]

I agree with all of your numbers with the exception of 2.
Can you please verify?

Iowa St. 70
Minnesota 30 I didnt see this one on your list

Boise St. 15
TCU 84 Wouldnt the play be Boise St?

Thanks for you help- 2 heads are better
than 1

[hhsilver]

Can that be correct that Boise has a SOS of 15 ????? Does Oregon do that much for Boise's SOS despite a WAC schedule + BG, Mia OH, and Cal-Davis ?

[snapstick]

Rating Sos
*Wyoming 63.28 57
Fresno State 74.42 74

*Central Fla 72.02 85
Rutgers 74.89 100

Midd Tenn 68.67 119
*So Mississippi 70.10 101 both categories

Byu 79.57 77
*Oregon St. 82.65 21 both categories

Utah 77.93 73
*California 79.02 17 both categories

Smu 66.24 90
*Nevada 73.61 82 both categories

Ohio 68.37 107
*Marshall 66.64 75

Wisconsin 77.82 68
*Miami Fla 83.99 18 both categories

*Air Force 73.76 92
Houston 75.98 97

Iowa St. 68.63 70
*Minnesota 70.88 30 both categories

Northwestern 69.97 94
*Auburn 80.16 14 both categories

*Lsu 85.66 16 both categories
Penn St. 81.53 83

Cincinnati 88.27 63
*Florida 93.71 27 both categories

Northern Ill 66.39 121
*South Fla 75.08 62 both categories

*Arkansas 82.56 13 both categories
East Carolina 75.10 61

*Boise State 86.63 15
Tcu 89.56 84

*Troy 69.53 106
Central Michigan 77.49 111


Rating and strength of schedule are courtesy of Sagarin. Please
check my numbers fellows and let me know of any errors!

Sagarin College Bowl System Plays

The team you are FADING must have a Sagarin rating of 60 or better, which means they must be in the top 6o in the rating category. If they are not in the top 60 its a no play.

[snapstick]

I agree with all of your numbers with the exception of 2.
Can you please verify?

Iowa St. 70
Minnesota 30 I didnt see this one on your list

Boise St. 15
TCU 84 Wouldnt the play be Boise St?

Thanks for you help- 2 heads are better
than 1

Iowa-Sagarin Rating is 75
Minnesota-Sagarin rating-63

The team you are fading must have a Sagarin Rating of 1-60

TCU and Boise are both have a Sagarin rating in the top 60. You FADE Boise because their SOS is higher than that of TCU. FADE every team whose SOS rating is 60 or worse UNLESS THEY ARE PLAYING A TEAM WITH A SOS EVEN HIGHER THAN THEIRS.

TCU-SOS is 84
Boise-SOS is 98

[aggieshawn]

number vs feel vs big motenteum