Arkansas St/Western KY game

[HittingGuru]

Anyone like Arkansas St -5.5 over Western KY? Looks like an easy winner to me.

[daneblazer]

Arkansas State has bent me over the 3 times I've bet on them. They can go sit on a corn cob.

[HittingGuru]

Yeah, but I think this is the time to bet them - they're playing the absolute worst team in Div I-A.

Arkansas State has bent me over the 3 times I've bet on them. They can go sit on a corn cob.

[Rio DiNero]

Yeah, but I think this is the time to bet them - they're playing the absolute worst team in Div I-A.

Ark St. is not that good either, WK has yet to win a game this year and I think they may be a little more motivated to take this one. I'll take the points in this match-up of awful teams.

[TUDINH]

go home team and get money all

[Cougar Bait]

Starting QB Leonard out with a torn ACL and in his place on the road will be redshirt freshman Ryan Aplin. Thought Ark. St. was a decent play but no way I lay almost a TD in this situation. That being said, WKY is REAL bad.

[Joe_Shabadoo]

With Alpin (backup QB) in, they're (ASU) going to run nearly every play.

When looking at both teams' weighted success in defending the run it's shown (per Footballoutsiders.com) that ASU ranks near the lowest quartile nationally defending the run in terms of success-per-play standardized, although they do only yield about 123-yds./gm. at 3.63 per carry. WKY, though, is next to dead-last, or dead-last, in every pertinent measure of success-per-play.

ASU does, however, have a highly above-average red-zone defense when compared to their mediocrity on standard downs, being ranked 12th in the nation, allowing only 8 rushing TDs. to be scored; WKY is hovering around 84 in this metric, allowing 25 scores on the ground.

WKY gives up, literally, the 2nd-most tackles-for-loss in the nation, and accumulates the 2nd-least amount respectively.

Both teams are atrocious in their offensive 3rd-down efficiency. ASU, defensively, is back above the lowest quartile in 3rd-down defense, but WKY, again, in this metric, is the penultimate team when looking down in the column at 119, allowing teams to convert over 53% of the time.

WKY is absolutely dead-last in weighted defensive pass efficiency, while ASU has allowed opposing passers to accrue a mark of 135.08, ranking them, again, around 80th nationally.





ANYWAY......................



.....all of the metrics and shit, they're just a means for me to try and figure out this shitty, degenerate play for tomorrow.

With all things considered, I don't think the deficiencies of ASU's new QB can be exploited by WKY's defense.




Arkansas State -6

[The EOG Seer]

I liked them at -5.5 but Arkansas State -6 money is moving onto them. I have them

[LLXC]

I like Ark St to win by at least a TD...would prefer -4 though.

[mann2chc]

under 51.5???

[HittingGuru]

Most likely it should play under - Arkansas St may be able to score some points, but I don't see Western KY scoring more than 17.

under 51.5???