Possible Let Down/Look Ahead Spots (if you believe in those things)

**HoulihansTX** · 11-02-09, 08:51 PM

Dude you are money. Great work. This is the type of info that brings profit.

I will help you update this thread till seasons end. This would have shaved three losses off my record with the info, as I was not diligent enough to look at full schedules.

This is what the forum is for.. Great info, and insightful analysis. This thread = profit. Lets stick with it and see how we do.

**hhsilver** · 11-02-09, 09:05 PM

I would add Pitt to the list - at 7-1 with ND next and Syracuse this week. Even though it's not a conf game vs ND, it is a very big game for Pitt.

Also, I question A&M on this list. Do they have a decent chance vs Okla? I don't think they would "overlook" a very beatable Colo in this case.

Thanks for providing these -- i'll keep looking for this thread.

**clarkd32** · 11-02-09, 09:17 PM

Iowa has a huge game with OSU next week but played so bad vs Indiana I'm that you have to think they will come out ready to play. But then again they haven't started very well all year so it is tough to say. NW qb has hammy injury and I haven't checked his status yet.

OSU is interesting because they have PSU, Iowa, and Michigan the next 3 weeks.

**ackem19** · 11-02-09, 11:02 PM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Dude you are money. Great work. This is the type of info that brings profit.

I will help you update this thread till seasons end. This would have shaved three losses off my record with the info, as I was not diligent enough to look at full schedules.

This is what the forum is for.. Great info, and insightful analysis. This thread = profit. Lets stick with it and see how we do.

Good to hear. Let's make some money.

**Cougar Bait** · 11-02-09, 11:12 PM

Yep good stuff. Always looking at the schedule is key...

**Kustac** · 11-03-09, 12:54 AM

nice work ackem

**tblues2005** · 11-03-09, 12:58 AM

Some of that is very true. It depends on the coach that you have if you can get ready for the next game or not.

I like that Navy bet because Navy always plays Notre Dame tough. To get DD's in points is really nice in that match up.

**SexyMit** · 11-03-09, 01:23 AM

Yeah I thought OSU last week -44 would be looking ahead to Penn St, didn't happen. LSU playing Tulane looking ahead to Bama this week didn't happen either. So it doesn't work all the time. But very good tool to follow, I do try and keep up with the schedules and look ahead games though!

**SexyMit** · 11-03-09, 01:24 AM

But I do like the Oregon the best though!

**rake922** · 11-03-09, 01:28 AM

**HoulihansTX** · 11-03-09, 01:35 AM

Originally posted by SexyMit

Yeah I thought OSU last week -44 would be looking ahead to Penn St, didn't happen. LSU playing Tulane looking ahead to Bama this week didn't happen either. So it doesn't work all the time. But very good tool to follow, I do try and keep up with the schedules and look ahead games though!

The covered by 1, and 0.5. Besides those were terrible teams they were playing. Lets see what happens against teams with a hint of a chance to win the game.

I will say got burnt by SD. St. last weekend. They were looking ahead to TCU, while they had New Mexico on tap. Thought they would kill them. Nope.

Lets keep track, and plan for profits.

**eastvan09** · 11-03-09, 04:49 AM

I like this thread. I'll certainly focus more analysis on a teams next opponent and previous opponent. Ah the human element of scheduling doesn't show up in traditional "Stats" based analysis

**Elder** · 11-03-09, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by tblues2005

Some of that is very true. It depends on the coach that you have if you can get ready for the next game or not.

I like that Navy bet because Navy always plays Notre Dame tough. To get DD's in points is really nice in that match up.

T
If Dobbs is out Navy is not Navy.
Be very careful
Elder

**hhsilver** · 11-03-09, 09:02 AM

about Duke / N Car : duke also coming off upset , though not as big of one, and I don't see either as a "letdown" possibility vs close neighbor/rival.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-03-09, 09:05 AM

Originally posted by hhsilver

about Duke / N Car : duke also coming off upset , though not as big of one, and I don't see either as a "letdown" possibility vs close neighbor/rival.

That game, like most ACC games, will fly OVER. Pitiful D's in that matchup.

**Husker36** · 11-03-09, 09:06 AM

Originally posted by ackem19

Made one (among others) bad pick last week because I didn't pay enough attention to scheduling so I thought I may help somebody else prevent making that mistake. I'm not giving my opinions on these games or suggesting they are bad picks, I'm simply stating that one could make the argument that they are not in a good spot. GL.

Let Downs
Oregon -5 vs. Stanford (Oregon coming off of the huge USC win)
Duke vs. North Carolina -8.5 (UNC coming off of the upset against VT)

Look Aheads
TCU -23.5 vs. San Diego St. (TCU has Utah next week)
Memphis vs. Tennessee -25 (Tennessee has Ole Miss next week)
Louisville vs. West Virginia -18 (WVU has Cincinnati next week)
UConn vs. Cincinnati -17 (Cincy has WVU next week)
Northwestern vs. Iowa -17.5 (Iowa has Ohio St. next week)
Texas A&M -7 vs. Colorado (A&M has Oklahoma next week)
Navy vs. Notre Dame -11 (ND has Pitt next week)
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh -18 (Pitt has ND next week)

I just got back from San Antonio...... and Notre Dame had a TON of key injuries down in Texas. Another reason why Navy might hang with them.

**poker_dummy101** · 11-03-09, 09:07 AM

Originally posted by SexyMit

Yeah I thought OSU last week -44 would be looking ahead to Penn St, didn't happen. LSU playing Tulane looking ahead to Bama this week didn't happen either. So it doesn't work all the time. But very good tool to follow, I do try and keep up with the schedules and look ahead games though!

For this reason, I don't. If a team blows out a team like it should noone hears anythinga bout it. If a team is struggling you hear that they are looking ahead. Not a fair representation imo.

Edit: Not saying that those games this week won't be profitable, but over the longrun I doubt it makes much difference.

**TheBetBuysDanK** · 11-03-09, 11:19 AM

great work, ackem! this thread is beautiful, and i will help and post in any ways that i can. I got burnt on a few last weekend (sdst), so this should = $$$$$. keep up the good work.

side note: how do you feel about your 'canes this weekend? theye been a BIG bet of mine two weeks in a row now. Should I ship another shell on 'em this week or lay off? I'm worried the injured D wont be able to stop the VA ground game.

**BigdaddyQH** · 11-03-09, 11:35 AM

Texas A&M is not going to win the Big 12 South, but needs one more win to become bowl eligable. That is the bottom line in that game. The "look ahead" should not apply to them.

Cincinnati and Iowa are still holding on to BCS Championship games hopes, so they can not afford to overlook anyone.

The way Notre Dame plays, they can not afford to overlook anyone. Charlie's tail is on the line this year. Losses to Michigan and USC, plus some very close wins against weak teams have him half way out the door. A loss to Navy just may finish the job.

**TheBetBuysDanK** · 11-03-09, 12:02 PM

I agree with you on all of those, HQ. Cincy and Iowa should roll, while ND needs to win to keep weiss's job, so you know the coaches wont be looking ahead. still, the discussion of this as a topic in itself is much more helpful than half the threads i see in here. great points though.

**FishFace5** · 11-03-09, 12:08 PM

+1. Good thoughts from everybody. Thanks for the help.

**Serbone** · 11-03-09, 12:20 PM

Originally posted by ackem19

Made one (among others) bad pick last week because I didn't pay enough attention to scheduling so I thought I may help somebody else prevent making that mistake. I'm not giving my opinions on these games or suggesting they are bad picks, I'm simply stating that one could make the argument that they are not in a good spot. GL.

Let Downs
Oregon -5 vs. Stanford (Oregon coming off of the huge USC win)
Duke vs. North Carolina -8.5 (UNC coming off of the upset against VT)

Look Aheads
TCU -23.5 vs. San Diego St. (TCU has Utah next week)
Memphis vs. Tennessee -25 (Tennessee has Ole Miss next week)
Louisville vs. West Virginia -18 (WVU has Cincinnati next week)
UConn vs. Cincinnati -17 (Cincy has WVU next week)
Northwestern vs. Iowa -17.5 (Iowa has Ohio St. next week)
Texas A&M -7 vs. Colorado (A&M has Oklahoma next week)
Navy vs. Notre Dame -11 (ND has Pitt next week)
Syracuse vs. Pittsburgh -18 (Pitt has ND next week)

Good info. Also have to consider conference refs protecting their BCS potential teams, so be careful with Oregon, for example.

**Serbone** · 11-03-09, 12:23 PM

Originally posted by hhsilver

about Duke / N Car : duke also coming off upset , though not as big of one, and I don't see either as a "letdown" possibility vs close neighbor/rival.

Duke will also be jacked up more than NC because they have not been competitive with blood rival North Carolina, and have had to hear about NC's success... this time they have a valid chance to beat NC for the first time in ages, and that would be a HUGE plus for Duke, turning around a woefull football program. Will help recruiting, etc, big time.

Big issue in favor of NC is that NC got several OL and a TE back for the VT game that provided them with the muscle to run the ball and hold off VT pass rush better than you had seen earlier in the yr.

**tblues2005** · 11-03-09, 12:36 PM

Originally posted by Serbone

Good info. Also have to consider conference refs protecting their BCS potential teams, so be careful with Oregon, for example.

I would be careful also with Oregon because Stanford is a pretty good team. Stanford has played well at home for sure.

**ackem19** · 11-03-09, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by TheBetBuysDanK

great work, ackem! this thread is beautiful, and i will help and post in any ways that i can. I got burnt on a few last weekend (sdst), so this should = $$$$$. keep up the good work.

side note: how do you feel about your 'canes this weekend? theye been a BIG bet of mine two weeks in a row now. Should I ship another shell on 'em this week or lay off? I'm worried the injured D wont be able to stop the VA ground game.

As much as i love the U, i wouldn't take them for two reasons: 1. I don't bet on the them because I love them so much. 2. You never know what team is going to show up. Last week, they should have won by more than one, but they just aren't playing like they were when they beat GT and Oklahoma. I would say there are better games to pick this week.

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 02:40 AM

Letdown Spots

Houston after barely beating Tulsa vs. UCF

Ohio St. after beating Penn St. vs. Iowa team w/o starting QB.

Kansas St. after beating Kansas vs. Mizzou

Tulsa after losing to Houston in a close one vs. ECU

Nebraska after beating Oklahoma vs. Kansas

Look Ahead Spots

Georgia Tech facing Georgia in two weeks vs. Duke

Kansas St. facing Nebraska next wk vs. Mizzou

Ohio St. facing Michigan next wk vs. Iowa

Air Force facing BYU next wk vs. UNLV

Arkansas facing Ole Miss next wk vs. Troy

Revenge Games

Florida vs. S. Carolina. S. Carolina lost 56-6 in Gainesville last year.

If there is more please add on. Ackem Whats up?

**HoulihansTX** · 11-09-09, 02:35 PM

Bump Bump.

I would appreciate for people to add games to the list, or voice opinions on the contrary. It is very hard to keep track of rivalries, and so many teams.