Wal's College Football Week #10

[wal66]

Thanks ohio.

Dank...........personally I like them at the 7 still. If they don't cover they simply don't win the game in my personal opinion. I can't see this game being anything less than a 10 point win. i understand situational plays and everything but seriously Stanford isn't as good as some of the teams Oregon has already dismantled this season.

[PeePee]

Game #3

Saturday November 7, 2009
4:00 PM
UL Monroe @ North Texas

Records:
UL Monroe 4-4 (5-3 ATS) 1-4 on the road
North Texas 2-6 (4-4 ATS) 1-3 at home

Trends:
UL Monroe is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall
Over is 7-3 in UL Monroe’s last 10 games overall
Over is 10-1 in North Texas’ last 11 home games
Home team is 6-2 ATS in last 8 meetings

Head To Head:
UL Monroe is 6-4 SU and ATS in last 10 meetings. UL Monroe won last year 35-23 at home but failed to cover the 16

Common Opponents:
UL Monroe 21 Troy 42
North Texas 26 Troy 56
UL Monroe 27 Florida Atlantic 25
Florida Atlantic 44 North Texas 40

Offense:
UL Monroe average 19 ppg on the road. Keep in mind that 3 of those road games were against Texas, Arizona St and Kentucky, so it’s not like they faced weak defenses out there.
North Texas averages 39.8 ppg at home. Keep in mind they scored 68 last week against lowly Western Kentucky to help boost that average.

Defense:
UL Monroe allows an average of 40 ppg on the road. Once again you have to consider who they have played on the road.
North Texas allows an average of 40-3 ppg at home. They allowed Western Kentucky to score 49 last week.

My Take:
To be honest I wouldn’t come near this game. The only reason I am playing it is because the program suggested UL Monroe was such a huge favorite over the opening line. North Texas isn’t a good team and why they are favored in this spot does cause me some concern. I initially thought it was because of the blowout win last week but then I considered who even knew about the game because they were playing Western Kentucky after all. So the line is puzzling and they are both crap teams and I should stay as far away as possible, but I’m an idiot and do stupid things sometimes. This, even if I win is a stupid thing probably. One thing of note that should make you stay away from this game if you weren’t already is that Junior QB Trey Revell broke his thumb against Arky St and Redshirt freshman Cody Wells has been under center since and the team has lost 2 straight since this occurred.

Program:
UL Monroe by 11.5 and the line initially opened as a pick and has sense moved to North Texas -1 so we have significant value based on the program.

Play:

UL Monroe ML* (my site doesn’t offer ML’s till they are -1.5 so it’s ML if it crosses that mark or points if it doesn’t)

Few sites listed him as PROBABLE. Most likely he will play this weekend and get them back on the winning side.

GL on your plays as I may tail a couple.

[bigcat1]

YEP we got lucky with bowling green, but we take the cash anyway, also with you on the ul monroe, looking forward to your other pics

[wal66]

bigcat, not sure if there will be any others. I am having a very difficult timing finding an edge in the other games. Still searching though. I really thought Michigan would be a play but the more I compare the teams these 2 have played Purdue has played against far better opponents. They have a worse record than that of Michigan but Michigan has played a much weaker schedule at this point. Plus Michigan isn't really very good.

I really liked Texas A&M but when you get insode the numbers and look at what the two have done even though A&M has a better surface and have really impressed with their offense at times aren't all that much better than Colorado. Given the fact that Colorado basically has nothing but pride to play for and are at home this one quickly lost it's decided edge as well.

I like Vandy to cover against Florida but won't go on the record in that one because Vandy probably won't score more than 6-10 points and if Florida truly hasn't firgured out how to consistantly get in the endzone then I don't see them putting up more than 31 to 35 points. Ofcourse if I am worng it could just as easily be Florida 42 Vandy 0.

I really like Alabama this week but once again when you go inside the numbers there is nothing but speculation to support laying the number. Can't take the points with LSu because I still think Alabama is the most complete team out there and could end up exploding this week against the Tigers.

So as you can see there are so many more games I personally like and a few that the program likes but the data just doesn't support. I'm still searching haven't done all the games yet but I'm not gonna force any plays either. If I find an edge I will post it.

[PingPong]

any thoughts on okie st -8? i think they cover easily, and i also like oklahoma -6 and vandy +34.5

[wal66]

Ping, I haven't worked those games out beyond the program. All I can tell you at this point is Oklahoma St's line and the program line are the same which indicates this is a sharp line. I will be looking into the numbers to see if there is any edge either way though.

I have negative value in the Oklahoma game because the program line is Oklahoma by 4 but it's not enough of a difference to make me automatically play Nebraska either. Here again I will have to look inside the numbers and see if I can find an edge.

Vanderbilt has significant value right off the bat because the program likes Florida by 24. I say significant value because I need at least 3.5 points worth in order to qualify as having value. However I personally reject when lines are this high because my program is based on power ratings and even with the variables I add in to the formula it is very difficult to get a generated line above 25'ish with any accuracy. Justin7 and other more experienced model users may have better results. Now on a personal level and from a statistical analysis level Vanderbilt would be a play based on pure raw data. Florida hasn't shown (even with an improved effort last week) that they can consistantly cover these enormous spreads but they certainly have the potential too do so. If it sounds like I am talking double talk it's because I am. Lines like this have too many intangibles that can go either way. Throw away logic and follow your gut here.

[bigcat1]

this doesn't really have anything to do with (football games) i was just wandering your age, did you come up with your program yourself or what, well any way best of luck this week

[wal66]

bigcat...........no problem, I'm 43. Yes I created my program. Calling it a program might be a little bit inaccurate but it simplifies things for everyone. I compile some power ratings data (Sargin's) of prefernce then I add in some variables that have proven effective for what I am looking for. What I do is nowhere near as involved or technical as what Dr. Bob or Justin7 do but it works as a decent enough filter for my needs. Sometimes I will take just the program result's and blindly play a game but not often. After I get the results from the program I then follow that game up with further analysis. If I can find supportive data to coorenlates with what the program says then it becomes a play.
Obviously the program isn't always right and even when it is sometimes I have still gotten lucky to get the win, kind of like lastnight. What it does do though is help narrow the field some. It also helps find the underdogs who have reasonable value of covering the line and even winning outright. Last year I was able to find several outrigth ML winners that I would have never of notice otherwise.
As gamblers we often enter into this with our minds already made-up. Whether it's intended or not far too many times we'll direct our research to support what we already beleive will happen. In my opinion OBJECTIVITY is the most important thing in capping a game. The program enables me to stay objective far more than I would be without it. Doesn't mean I won't sometimes stray off course and play a game in instinct but not nearly as regularly as before.
I hope this helps answer your question without actually displaying my entire program. Gotta keep most of it under wraps in case Dr. Bob ever wants to make an offer. lol

[tblues2005]

wal good job on your analysis on this games this week. I like your Oregon and Baylor this weekend. I will be on both of them teams.

[PeePee]

Wal,
Any thought on Houston? I liked them to win SU but wanna hear your thought. Granted, they have no D but their O is lethal. They are similar to Texas Tech (coaching comes to mind) and they already had that let down game which they lost to UTEP after they beat both TT and OKst. Similar situation with Oregon where both would want to improve on ranking.
Don't wanna be a homer so looking for other views.

[wal66]

PeeWee............I have turned this game inside out and back again. I have compared the power rating's of the teams these two have played. Houston rate's as a tougher schedule by better than 7 points.

I've looked at who the common opponents have been and while they both beat Tulane on the road and they both lost to UTEP on the road, Houston beat SMU at home and Tulsa lost to SMU at home. Gives a slight edge to Houston on that front as well.

I've compared Houston offense on the road and they average 40 ppg against Tulsa's defense at home where they allow an average of 19 ppg but that includes a game against Sam Houston St where they only allowed 3 points.

I've compared Houston defense on the road and they allow an average of 30 ppg against Tulsa's offense at home where they average 30 ppg but again this includes Sam Houston St where they scored 56 points.

My program says Houston should be a 13 point favorite. The line opened at Houston -3 so I would have jumped all over this with all the available value.

THE PROBLEM is that within a couple of days this line went from Houston -3 to Tulsa -2.5 and has since settled to Tulsa -1 in some places.

My program has a built in cushion to allow for line movement but this kind of movement suggest something that I can't find reasons to support. When most see this type of line movement it suggest very heavy SHARP action. What they see in Tulsa to warrant this much heavy money I don't know. I don't have to know. I don't even have to be right, it is enough for me to stay away from a side in this game. If I were to play anything at all I would entertain a total depending on where it's at.

I'm not paranoid but I'm not accepting that there is nothing going on with this game either.

PeeWee I am sorry I can't be of anymore help to you. Personally I like Houston and my program supports it as does all the data I compiled through my research but I have to stay away from this game.

[eastvan09]

I'm seeing the total at 67.5 for Houston/Tulsa.. I have not decided whether to play the over... yet

[wal66]

Houlihan's is fast becoming a totals guy. Might want to seek his opinion on the matter. I would be the absolute worst guy to offer an opinon cause when I play totals I lose totlas.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

Wal, great breakdown on the houston game. my research shows houston is a better team in nearly every facet of the game, and from a motivation standpoint i feel like Houston has more to play for at this point in the season and, thus, should be more prepared and ready to play.

BUT

When the lines moves from -3 to +1 in a single day when 76% or better is on Houston, that suggests some SERIOUSLY heavy money coming in on tulsa. Why? I dont know. you dont know. but, somebody knows. I dont know what to make of it. Personally, I'll be watching for a fix job myself.

i did put down 1.5 units on Houston though. Outside of a rigged game, i think they win by 10.

[PeePee]

Thanks for the info, Wal. At least I know where your program stands. I'll be a homer here and pull the trigger.
Houston's rep on the rd and the perception that Tulsa is a hard place to win (Boise?) played a major role... but it's only Wed so I think by game time line will adjust toward Houston.
On the side note, was listening to Houston's coach on local radio today and he did not mention anything about injuries (in case we all wondered) just saying that he likes the way his team is under the radar and hope to keep to momentum...

[wal66]

Appreciate it Dank.

No problem PeePee always glad to help if I can.

[moodyt2]

What do yall think of the Purdue @ Michigan game?

[eastvan09]

Thanks Wal. I follow Houlihan's threads and have tailed him on some totals.. I'll tail a few more this weekend.

I won't play Purdue/ Michigan

[wal66]

Thought I would include some additional work-ups I have completed. I’ve done more than what I’ll post but some of these might help some find something they are looking for.

Eastern Michigan @ Northern Illinois

The strength of schedule between these two teams aren’t even relatively close. The average opponent strength of Eastern Michigan is 56.1 while the average opponent for Northern Illinois is 79.7.
There were no common opponents to compare against and that really hurts the process. Northern Illinois did fare far better against similar types of opponents but that can be very subjective.
Eastern Michigan averages 19 ppg on the road while Northern Illinois only allows an average of 13.5 ppg at home.
Eastern Michigan allows an average of 47.8 ppg on the road while Northern Illinois averages 34.3 ppg at home. You may want to look at who Eastern Michigan has faced on the road because it does skew the facts a little.
Northern Illinois is clearly the better team in this contest and has the ability to cover this spread with ease but they have looked a little lethargic the past couple of weeks and motivation to keep the pedal to the metal might be a problem.
Program likes Northern Illinois by 23 so it would lend some small edge of value.

Virginia tech @ Eastern Carolina

Obviously Virginia Tech has played tougher opponents throughout the season. The average strength of opponent for V-tech is 78.7 while the average opponent for East Carolina only rates 65.4 so a clear advantage to V-Tech in this category considering their record.
Common opponents for these teams are:
North Carolina 20 V-Tech 17
East Carolina 17 North Carolina 31
Marshall 10 V-Tech 52
East Carolina 21 Marshall 17
While they have fared the same record wise in these contest and East Carolina did play both on the road while V-Tech split when you look at the numbers V-Tech played better in those games.
V-Tech averages 27 ppg on the road and East Carolina only allows 17 ppg at home.
V-Tech allows an average of 29.3 ppg on the road while East Carolina averages 32.3 ppg at home.
The teams are on different momentum paths coming into this contest. V-Tech enters on a two game losing streak and East Carolina is riding momentum with a two game winning streak.
Revenge is certainly a potential motivator for V-Tech as East Carolina beat them last year at home as a 9 point underdog.
The program likes Virginia Tech by 13 so there is no wiggle room for error here.
Personally I like the thought of teasing V-Tech with Northern Illinois and taking my chances that way.


Ohio St @ Penn St

The strength of opponent for these two teams are basically even. Ohio St has faced an average 69.6 opponent and Penn St has faced an average 68.3 opponent.
The common opponents for these schools are:
Minnesota 7 Ohio St 38
Minnesota 10 Penn St 35
Illinois 0 Ohio St 30
Penn St 35 Illinois 17
Pretty much a wash here as we can’t see a clear advantage either way. Penn did play Illinois on the road but Ohio St shut them out.
Ohio St averages 29.6 ppg on the road while Penn St only allows 7.3 ppg at home. Of course in both cases you have to go look at who they played in those situations.
Ohio St allows an average of 13.3 ppg on the road and Penn St averages 28.7 ppg at home. Once again check those situations.
Ohio St is 6-4 SU in the last 10 in this series and the teams are 5-5 ATS. Penn St won last year at Ohio St 13-6 as a -1.5 point favorite.
The under is 6-4 in the last 10 games in this series and I kind of think it will be 7-4 after this game.
Program likes Penn St by 4 so here again we have no room for error.


These are NOT plays. It is just a condensed version of the analysis I have researched.

[mcbaseball10]

Wal, I totally agree with the Va Tech analysis. I have them as a 14 point favorite and decided to tease it with Temple tonight. Miami (OH) is banged up from last week. They don't have enough depth to play with a team being as banged up as they are. If Temple gets up on them early could be a blowout. I took the 6 pt. cushion with Temple and Va Tech. GL this week and loved the vids with the girls. Keep up the good work

[wal66]

cool **. Nice to know some are actuallt reading this stuff and not just looking for the actual plys. I'm considering the teaser and thinking of adding Temple to it as well.

Goog luck bro, tonight and throughout the weekend.

[TheBetBuysDanK]

good thoughts on tonight's games. I decide to run two teasers toight:

10 units - 10 pt tease, N.ill -10.5, Vtech -3.5, and temple -7.5
10 units - 10 pt tease, n.ill -10.5, vtech -3.5, and miamiOH +27.5

Heres hoping temple wins by 13 and they both hit!

BOL in whatever you decide to do tonight, Wal

[Serbone]

Game #4
Saturday November 7, 2009
2:00 PM
Baylor @ Missouri

Records:
Baylor 3-5 (4-4 ATS) 1-2 on the road
Missouri 5-3 (4-4 ATS) 2-2 at home

Trends:
Baylor is 7-2 ATS in their last 9 conference games
Baylor is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games overall
Under is 8-2 in Missouri’s last 10 home games

Head to Head:
Missouri is 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS in last 9 meetings.

Common Opponents:
Nebraska 20 Baylor 10
Nebraska 27 Missouri 12
Oklahoma St 34 Baylor 7
Missouri 17 Oklahoma St 33

Offense:
Baylor averages 13.7 ppg on the road
Missouri averages 23.5 ppg at home

Defense:
Baylor allows an average of 26 ppg on the road
Missouri allows an average of 25 ppg at home

My Take:
I’m not real happy with myself this week. It feels like every one of my games is almost forced. While I can support what my program has suggested I can’t feel comfortable with any of them. Baylor isn’t a good team and here I am backing them. I am backing them against a team that not only owns them but could go off on offense at any time. Missouri could go off but they haven’t shown it at all this season with the exception of the Furman game. I am crossing my fingers and hoping against hope that the scoring stays low and the mistakes pile up and this keeps it within the number for Baylor.

Program:
Missouri by 9 so we have value with a play on Baylor.

Play:

Baylor +17* (I expect this game to rise to at least 17 so I am waiting or I will buy the hook)

These stats and trends are nice but throw them out because of this: MU QB Gabbert is high quality, 6'5" strong armed, smart, fast (4.5) NFL material, though a soph.

He was injured pretty badly early in Neb game (ankle) and they kept him in there because #2 QB was expelled and # 3 is a pretty weak walk on.

SO he played rest of Nebraska, OK St and Texas. I watched most of all 3 games, he threw clearly off balance, his back plant foot buckled each time, painfull to watch, and he could hardly move in the pocket, did not try to run forward at all. His throws were not even close to the quality that he had earlieer demonstrated, though with his great support he put some good numbers on the board against OK St. (Nebraska game was in heavy rain, and Texas just plain outclassed MU).

I say, throw out the Nebraska, OK St, and Texas games.

Gabbert wore a foot boot on Sun and Mon before the Colorado game, so I stayed off MU. To my surprise, against Colorado he was sharp, right on target, no sign of problem with back foot, and MU marched down the field at will. They say he is now definitely 100%, will be able to run, too.

Supposed to be a nice day in Columbia, 70 degrees, MU has top flight receivers, decent "D", Baylor QB out, MU fighting for good bowl opportunity, focused on sweeping last 3.

I like some of your other picks but I am taking MU - 14, BIG!

[Cougar Bait]

I have always meant to ask you how key injuries in past games affects the overall outcome of your numbers. Or is it not a part of the formula? Not as many plays as usual Wal...I hope you have a great week.

[wal66]

10 Point Teaser (3 Teams)11/05/09 19:12 ETbet 63.55 to win 52.96 Result: PendingEMichigan
NIllinois 11/05/09(19:35 ET)
EMichigan +31.5 MiamiOhio
Temple 11/05/09(19:30 ET)
Temple -7.5 VirginiaTech
EastCarolina 11/05/09(19:50 ET)
VirginiaTech -3



I couldn't decide so this is how I both have action and chicken out. One unit 10pt teaser.

[wal66]

I have always meant to ask you how key injuries in past games affects the overall outcome of your numbers. Or is it not a part of the formula? Not as many plays as usual Wal...I hope you have a great week.

Coug's, injuries aren't factored into the program portion. I (when I remember) factor that in after I get the program lines.

As for the number of games, there simply isn't any that really have an edge. The program gave me as many selections as usual that qualified but I was unable to find anything to support the program in my research. I'm looking at a couple of games not selected by the program that I may have plays on later.

[wal66]

It's not even to the half yet and I already know which part of my teaser is a loser. Northern Illinois is gonna destroy Eastern Michigan. I almost went all favs in the teaser too.
Teasers. totals and NFL, when will I ever learn.

[wal66]

Success waits for those smart enough to find it. Until I give up NFL, totals and teasers it'll continue to evade me.


Teaseuslyr obvio lost.

[PeePee]

Wal, did you get to cap Maryland/NCst game? Any value on that?

[wal66]

PeeWee I absolutely forgot about the game. I may have cost you some value also. Through the program and my analysis I like Maryland +points. My only problem is not knowing what motivation NC State may be able to muster up. According to what I have anything over a FieldGoal is good but be aware that this is rather flakey data on this game. It could just as easily be an outright win my Maryland or a 14 point win by NC State.

[wal66]

3-1 on posted program plays for the week.
Lost money though because naturally the one game I lose on the prgram I played heavy.

[wal66]

These stats and trends are nice but throw them out because of this: MU QB Gabbert is high quality, 6'5" strong armed, smart, fast (4.5) NFL material, though a soph.

He was injured pretty badly early in Neb game (ankle) and they kept him in there because #2 QB was expelled and # 3 is a pretty weak walk on.

SO he played rest of Nebraska, OK St and Texas. I watched most of all 3 games, he threw clearly off balance, his back plant foot buckled each time, painfull to watch, and he could hardly move in the pocket, did not try to run forward at all. His throws were not even close to the quality that he had earlieer demonstrated, though with his great support he put some good numbers on the board against OK St. (Nebraska game was in heavy rain, and Texas just plain outclassed MU).

I say, throw out the Nebraska, OK St, and Texas games.

Gabbert wore a foot boot on Sun and Mon before the Colorado game, so I stayed off MU. To my surprise, against Colorado he was sharp, right on target, no sign of problem with back foot, and MU marched down the field at will. They say he is now definitely 100%, will be able to run, too.

Supposed to be a nice day in Columbia, 70 degrees, MU has top flight receivers, decent "D", Baylor QB out, MU fighting for good bowl opportunity, focused on sweeping last 3.

I like some of your other picks but I am taking MU - 14, BIG!

[Cougar Bait]

Getting killed today. Lost on Aggies, Blue Devils, and LSU...all 3 were covering the whole game...feel ripped off...never had 3 in one day like that. Hope the night is better...at least you went 3-1...playing Texans and the points tomorrow. See ya Wal

[wal66]

Coug's I hope it turns bro. I lost money even thoug I had a winning record on posted plays but I made a killing on Oregon and Alabama 2nd halves.

Good luck tonight and tomoorow guy.



PS Nice avatar upgrade. Not a Cougar but nuttin wrong with a cub now and then.

[Cougar Bait]

Had to change it again...Houston was losing. Went to the Mile High Club. Hopefully that turns the tide.