Dbldown's plays for week of 10/24/09

Mac4Lyfe · 10-20-09, 09:52 AM

Great picks IMO. I'm leaning the same way on most of them. I got Idaho at +14 and would recommend buying a half point or full point just in case. Let's cash this bitch

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 09:56 AM

Yeah I feel pretty good about this card Mac....lets get em

dchecks · 10-20-09, 11:11 AM

Card looks good Dbldown!! Love the Georgia Tech pick! What do you think about the Miami Clemson game? I liked Miami at -7, now there at -5 with some serious RLM going on! Clemson D is good but Miami looks great this year especially at home... Thanks in advance for the thoughts!

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 11:13 AM

Thanks dchecks. No real opinion on that game, Clemson is so inconsistent I can't put money on them. If I had to make a play it would probably be on Miami

DREEZY · 10-20-09, 11:18 AM

I LOVE: Central Michigan -7, Northern Illinois -10, Idaho +13.5

No Navy -3 play?

GT @ Virginia = trap?

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 11:24 AM

no real thoughts on Navy Dreezy...

It seems people think that the GT/VA game is a trap. But I try not to look into things that deeply. I see a line that seems off and I jump on it. Virginia is not very good, and I don't really expect this one to be close

StraitShooter · 10-20-09, 11:28 AM

Looks good..be back to shoot some shit with ya all later

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 02:29 PM

Some quick thoughts about each game:

-Florida St. is having a down year, but they arent a horrible team. They can put up points, but have a poor defense. In this game I just don't see North Carolina being able to keep up with Fl. St.'s firepower as N.C. has struggled offensively this year.

-Syracuse is giving up 9.5. They arent a very good team, however they have played a fairly tough schedule. With a poor Akron team coming into town I expect Syracuse to take out some frustrations on them.

-Georgia Tech is just outmatching Virginia in this game pure and simple. Virginia is not very good this year, and some wins against poor competition lately have this line lower than it should be. Ga. Tech just beat a very good Va. Tech team. This could be a "trap" like a lot of people are saying, however I'm gonna risk it with a good team giving up only 4 points to a team that lost to a DII school this year.

-Central Michigan is the class of the MAC. This team won on the road to a Michigan St. team. A win that is looking pretty damn impressive right about now. Bowling Green struggles on defense but can score....just not enough in this game to keep up.

-Northern Illinois let me down last week playing a poor Toledo team. Still can't figure out how they didnt put up more points than that on a crap defense. I still view them as a pretty decent team, and definately good enough to cover this spread against Miami OH. A team that is 0-7 with every loss by greater than or equal to 10 points.

-Western Michigan hasnt performed up to expectations thus far this year. However 2 losses are to Big10 teams, and their other two are against two of the better teams in the MAC. I expect them to beat up on Buffalo pretty good on Saturday.

-In regards to Michigan, they have performed well this year, with two losses and in very tight ballgames. I frankly havnt seen Penn St. do enough this year to warrant them being favorites of greater than a field goal on the road here.

-Texas is a solid team, although not as good as many people give them credit for. However i am still riding the Missouri is overrated bandwagon at this point. And expect Texas to win big here. They've got a defense good enough to slow down Mizzou, and an offense that should put up points on a pretty poor Missouri defense. The Oklahoma St. game was even more of a shillacking that the final score indicates and Ok. St. kept stalling their second half drives and settling for all field goals.

-I've ridden Idaho St. for the past three weeks. Coming into this week I was thinking they would lose their value, but this line is way too high for a Nevada team that is mediocre. Both teams can score and both have questionable defenses so I expect a shoot-out here. For those of you that play totals (which I don't) the over may be a good play also.

-Temple is a pretty solid team this year. they started off the season with a loss to Villanova. But Villanova is actually a pretty solid DII school and I think they probably caught Temple off guard a bit. Their only other loss is a road loss to Penn St. Their 4 straight wins are all against pretty poor opponents but they were all by double digits except for one. I still think Toledo is a garbage team with a garbage defense.

and finally.....

-Central Florida.....sure they havnt been world beaters this year. But they are playing an 0-7 Rice team that hasnt lost a game BY LESS than 17!!! Any team that is 0-7 with teams like Vanderbilt, UAB, and East Carolina on their schedule....and their lowest loss margin to those 3 teams is 19. I just don't see how you can't fade them

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lakerboy · 10-20-09, 02:30 PM

nice post dbldown. just wondering why so many games?

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 02:34 PM

you know lakerboy....i struggle with that every week. Last week I had 18 going 10-8 and the week before I have 16 going 11-5. I tried brigning the amount down this week, but I just always see so many lines that I like. I'm hoping that this week I widdled the list down and took out the losers and not the winnners.

A lot of times when I try to limit my number of plays I always end up getting rid of the winners and holding onto the losers.

Thanks for the input

lakerboy · 10-20-09, 02:39 PM

Originally posted by Dbldown11

you know lakerboy....i struggle with that every week. Last week I had 18 going 10-8 and the week before I have 16 going 11-5. I tried brigning the amount down this week, but I just always see so many lines that I like. I'm hoping that this week I widdled the list down and took out the losers and not the winnners.

A lot of times when I try to limit my number of plays I always end up getting rid of the winners and holding onto the losers.

Thanks for the input

i know what you mean.sometimes i play 8 nfl games on sunday but other times 4. my amounts vary hugely from game to game. i know some people play alot of games hoping to go 6-4 and make some$$$- good luck buddy

mgdownin · 10-20-09, 02:54 PM

Michigan has 2 losses at Iowa and Michigan state

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 02:55 PM

ahhhhhh yes. Thank you mgdownin. For some reason forgot about Iowa. Another real tight one on the road though none-the-less

mgdownin · 10-20-09, 02:56 PM

yes I agree Michigan will be able to put up points on Penn State and I feel they have a good chance of winning out right especially being at home.

LINE-crush-ER · 10-20-09, 02:57 PM

I see who posted this but I ll try to be the better man , really wish you would of read the first thread we made , and yes it was confusing , but our posts are really kept as a note book ,
But central Michigan seems to be a gut feeling bet , We had that penciled in also , Hce you checked their stats on their wins they actually wre outgained last week big time by a bad western michigan team , Bowling green wins this game out right , Bowling green has played well , central Michigan does seem to pull out wins , but giving up 438 yards to western michigan and only netting 238 , Bowling Green is a passing team and will take advantage of the weak passing defense central michigan gives up , best of luck

LINE-crush-ER · 10-20-09, 02:59 PM

penn state and michigan both looked equal in their loss against Iowa , but it seems to me that Michigan just gives up more points than penn state allows , this was a game that we had to come off of

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 03:00 PM

Thanks for being a better man than I Line-crush-ER....you arent the first. I don't think Western Michigan is "bad", just underperforming. I deffinately did not notice the yardage differential that you pointed out though....thanks for the info. I don't expect to go 10-0 so this might be one of the losses, but hopefully I'm right about it.

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 03:01 PM

Originally posted by LINE-crush-ER

penn state and michigan both looked equal in their loss against Iowa , but it seems to me that Michigan just gives up more points than penn state allows , this was a game that we had to come off of

In my opinion if they both looked equal than the edge goes to Michigan, as they played Iowa on the road, and Penn St. got them at home. Penn St. now has to go to the Big House, and they are giving up more than a field goal???? I just don't see how that can be. It was a strong lean I had, and I noticed Pags was on it, so I rolled with it

LINE-crush-ER · 10-20-09, 03:02 PM

Central Florida love it , even Vanderbilt was able to put up points rice (36), Central florida does struglle with points , rice averages over 45 points to opponents offense , Central florda shouldnt have a problem covering here

LINE-crush-ER · 10-20-09, 03:03 PM

got know problem with that I won money on western michigan , and you have the fact that they just dont like to lose , that goes a long way

LINE-crush-ER · 10-20-09, 03:04 PM

crap that , central michigan ,(won with central last week) so I dont like betting againsta team that won me money the week prior

LINE-crush-ER · 10-20-09, 03:12 PM

Florida St. +2.5 origianlly was one of our picks
Syracuse -9.5 no opinion as of yet
Georgia Tech -4 five star play for us
Central Michigan -7 first glimpse , we liked , couldnt go the other way , but do like bowl here
Northern Illinois -10 no opinion here , but one guy likes it the other way
Western Michigan -5 , no homework done on this game
Michigan +4.5 liked the points here , but can michigan score- 6-0/ 9-3 beats you here , we left it a lone
Texas -13 like this one , we feel like missouri is a bad tackling team ,its just that color or col state had em close in late 3rd qtr
Idaho +13.5 this seems to be big pick , need to look at this game
Temple +3 no opininon
Central Florida -10 love this game , 30-3 margin 30-10 five star play for us '
sorry didnt mean to take over the thread , but this was easier to do rather than , ind... posts for each game ,
texas still may be a bet for us , seems like they just have a strong weakness being passed against , Missouri not a great tackling team though and should get you the points you need here

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 03:18 PM

Thanks for all the input Crusher

TheBetBuysDanK · 10-20-09, 03:48 PM

great post, dbl. I'll be adding some of your picks to my card. I really like the central michican and central florida plays. I def. think idaho will cover. hell, I may even bet a little on the moneyline for that game, bc a W is possible. Lets go GT this week! Im pounding that game. I dont understand what VA has shown this year to merrit that small of spread. I know GT is on the road and VA's coach is great in oct...blah, blah...but were looking at two different caliber teams here.

Best of luck!

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 03:56 PM

[QUOTE=TheBetBuysDanK;2418551]great post, dbl. I'll be adding some of your picks to my card. I really like the central michican and central florida plays. I def. think idaho will cover. hell, I may even bet a little on the moneyline for that game, bc a W is possible. Lets go GT this week! Im pounding that game. I dont understand what VA has shown this year to merrit that small of spread. I know GT is on the road and VA's coach is great in oct...blah, blah...but were looking at two different caliber teams here.

Best of luck![/QUOTE

Thanks, hope we cash em all! Completely agree with what you said about GT/VA, also I agree that some ML on Idaho wouldnt be bad, because they very well could pull the upset and win straight up in this one, and that could make for a very nice payout

Cougar Bait · 10-20-09, 04:00 PM

Good looking card DD. I am with you on three of these games. Would probably be on more but I don't like laying double digits...

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 04:36 PM

Thanks Cougar....I usually get screwed by Double digit favs as well....but two of them are against team that havnt won a game and their average margin of defeat is in the double digits, and the other is a good team against what I think is an average team at best. So I couldnt talk myself out of them....we shall see if they bite me again I guess

LINE-crush-ER · 10-20-09, 05:02 PM

Central Michigan / Bowling Green Stat sheet Last three games
Central michigan lasrt three games CM BG
net yards for 949 net yards against 1185 949/1185 1480/1166
passing yards for 824 passing yards against 747 824/747 1271/475
Rushing yards for 525 rushing yards against 538 525/538 206/691
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$
Bowling green last three games
net yards for 1480 net yards against 1166
passing yards for 1271 passing yards against 475
rushing yards for 206 rushing yards aaginst 691
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$ $$$$$$$$$$
CM BG
949/1185 1480/1166
824/747 1271/475
525/538 206/691
really the only thing I gained from re evalutaing these stats but I want get into why in this ,
(net yards )looks like Bowling green has the edge here for the last three games on net yards gained by over 500 yards here
(Passing yards Bowling Green geta big advantage here getting more than 450 yards for the lst three games , and giving up about 200 less over the last three games
(rushing in what really counts , look at the n.c state game last week,
Central michigan get a huge advantage here Bowling green has allowed almost 700 yards rushing in its last three games , but central michigan loses that biug advantage where they come in giving as much rushing yards as they gain in its last three games
I guess it really comes down to what really matters and the final scores
(Bowling green) comes in with its last three games scoring 104 points and allowing 96 points with 2 wins and a loss
(CENTRAL MICHIGAN comes in scoring 110 points and allowing 44 ) and 3-0 in the win loss column
so I see this bet being there , some how , Central Michigan just doesnt allow points , they seem to be out played , the time of possession seems as though its not one sided , and then you have the michigan state game , I would like to factor it in but that was a century ago , But Bowling Green keeps it close and with a pretty good win over ball state last week , I would say You could haver the right team and still lose the bet here , But how you could ever figure it out after the game who is the better team I wouldnt know , Central Michigan has been out played week after week and just doesnt lose and in their weakness to arizona they ran all over in what Bowling Green doesnt seem to do , and thas pretty clear cut , So I am pulling a strong like on Bowling Green, , With I can see that bet On Central Michigan , I want take em after that Impressive win over Ball state , but Winners are winners and Losers are losers
Hope you dont mind me doing my homework on your thread

LINE-crush-ER · 10-20-09, 05:05 PM

CM BG
949/1185 1480/1166 net for net against
824/747 1271/475 passing for passing against
525/538 206/691 rushing for , rushing against
I knew that was going to happen as soon as i posted it , sorry about that thats the last three games for central /bowl green
points for points against
110/44 cm (3-0) 104/96 bg (2-1)

Cougar Bait · 10-20-09, 05:09 PM

My eyes hurt.

Dbldown11 · 10-20-09, 05:23 PM

not a problem Crusher...but if you put some space between points and paragraphs it'd be much easier on the eyes and easier to read and understand

LINE-crush-ER · 10-20-09, 05:31 PM

its not that , the spaces dont allow for after posting , I actually tried to correct it , and same as before , but glad you said something , be cause I really Did nt want to comment once again , but seriously I had it all nice and neat , It just want allow a spaces
Its filled in
But I do beleive I will be able to get around it , using a different Method , But I already Know a paste doesn't work

HoulihansTX · 10-21-09, 04:19 AM

Both Central's are my fav plays on your slate.

Syracuse =

GL DBlDown. Stay in the black, bro

AdaBarber · 10-21-09, 09:06 AM

Good luck brother. U know what I like. U know I am on Akron +10. Sorry we don't agree but let's make some money.