Navy (-7.5) @ SMU a lock? It looks like it...

**LT Profits** · 10-15-09, 07:17 PM

Originally posted by pags11

LT,

you have obviously not watched these two teams play a whole lot and are putting way too much emphasis into stats when Navy has played some very crappy teams...there is NO substitute for watching teams play, period...you haven't seen Mitchell's progress either, he has improved dramatically from last year and even since the beginning of this year...again, you are just looking at stats...you fail to mention the coaching mismatch in this game as well, or the fact that Navy had to travel to Texas then back to Maryland, perform all of their military duties this week, then head back across the country to play SMU...

avatar challenge it is and I can tell that you are scared...I would advise you to put a little more research into your games before you lay a TD plus on the road against June Jones and company...

bleh, we have totally different approaches, which is fine. Obviously, you prefer watching games and that works for you, which is great. Me, I have always been a stats based capper and I have always felt that actually watching games is overrated, as the numbers don't lie. To each his own, there really is no right or wrong.

And no, I have no interest in a dumb avatar challenge. Sorry.

One of us will be right this game, so Good Luck.

**Wilforth** · 10-15-09, 07:19 PM

I'll write this down immediately, before I forget.

**durito** · 10-15-09, 09:14 PM

SMU actually has better run defense stats than pass when you account for the offenses they've faced. And Navy won't be able to defend against the SMU pass. I like +7.5 and Under 56.

**pags11** · 10-15-09, 10:43 PM

LT,

a stat book can't tell you when there's bad coaching or bad QB play or when freaky things happen in a game...stats only tell part of the story, your eyes will never lie to you...this is what happens when you try to stretch yourself thin over too handicapping too many sports, which is precisely what you are doing...

the only thing "dumb" is the way you came up with your Navy pick, your basis for the pick is completely off (as pointed out by durito)...you will go bury your head in the ground after SMU cashes like you always do when we are against eachother on a game and you lose...can't wait..

**durito** · 10-15-09, 10:50 PM

your eyes can only lie to you

**jellobiafra** · 10-15-09, 10:51 PM

Hope you Navy backers waited on this one. Line is 7 all over now.

**pags11** · 10-15-09, 10:55 PM

not my eyes durito, not my eyes son...there was a good capper from New York named sportsnut that used to try and tell me the same thing and he ultimately admitted he was wrong...I am not your typical public bettor who watches team A play well one week and bets them in a bad spot the next week...I am watching all angles of the games and every play, researching for future weeks...my brain is like a computer and it stores this info. for future reference...

**jellobiafra** · 10-15-09, 10:57 PM

Originally posted by durito

your eyes can only lie to you

Why do coaches waste all that time watching film then?

**pags11** · 10-15-09, 11:02 PM

exactly right Jello!!!!!!!

I am now watching up to 30 games a week between the games I watch live, the games I watch on my computers on ESPN360 and the ones I have on my three tivos...

**durito** · 10-15-09, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by jellobiafra

Why do coaches waste all that time watching film then?

I am interested in wagering not coaching so I don't know.

Nevertheless, coaches do lots of stupid stuff they wouldn't if they understood statistics.

**durito** · 10-15-09, 11:05 PM

i haven't watched a college game in two weeks

**pags11** · 10-15-09, 11:08 PM

durito,

it's obvious you were never an athlete and that's ok, it doesn't prevent you from being a successful handicapper because I know that you are one...coaching, dumb and smart, is a huge factor in the outcome of these games and watching the games is the only way to tell...I look at ALL factors when handicapping, stats, situational spots, trends, line value, publicy perception, but more important than all of these is actually watching these teams play...that is the major reason for my success over all of the years..

**jellobiafra** · 10-15-09, 11:09 PM

It's easier for some people to use numbers, while others prefer handicapping the matchups. Either way can be successful. It's silly to say that knowing the teams inside and out can't be an advantage, just like it would be to say analyzing numbers to a higher degree than ordinary can't be helpful.

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-15-09, 11:24 PM

not a lock , I had this one wrote checked and almost farmed , I actually went into the stats Navy is giving up way to many big plays on passing , smu is capable of putting up big numbers throwing the ball , smu only had like 16 yards against tcu but then i noticed that they are a passing threat to navy , navy played well against pitt but only had 6 completions , I came off this game navy one dimensional perfect display for a back door on you hear , I look for this to be a 7 point game or even 3 point game , but I do not see myself betting on smu here If I had too I would take navy but Navy does well against the run not so well against the pass , and gives up way to many big plays , special teams plays , not one of the best picks on the board here , but again It was late today before it came off my play , good luck

**LINE-crush-ER** · 10-16-09, 12:54 AM

NAVY TEAM SMU
31.7 PTS FOR 27.0
20.2 PTS AGNST 29.2
11.5 DIFF. -2.2
91.7 PASS YDS 297.0
270.3 RUSH YDS 65.8
198.8 PASS D 245.2
108.7 RUSH D 146.6
-0.7 TO DIFF -0.8

yes Navy could actually be able to pass and throw all over smu , looks like a pick after all , sorry I still in my homework process , but navy is a bargain at 7 if you can get it

**aeshred** · 10-16-09, 01:31 AM

Navy is the way to go, they came close to beating a top team in @ Ohio st 27 31. Lost by 4pts

They beat a tough air force team.

They beat Louisville by 18 pts, Why does Pags have this team(louisville) vs UConn, @ Uconns' HC??

I say its a contradiction, he's already said that SMU's D matchup well w/ Navy's run attack...

Huge difference in Defensive play, Navy has the advantage
SMU lost to Wash st

Yea, Navy -7 is the play...

**pags11** · 10-16-09, 02:19 AM

aeshred,

you have a lot to learn...

**aeshred** · 10-16-09, 12:39 PM

Well pags, Id have to say your right, but so do you, you see thats the beauty in hc, there is plenty to learn.

I will give you the adv regarding watching teams play, bc thats definately the best indicator when beting.

However I dont think June has a strong enough team to handle Navy.

If somebody put a gun to my head and forced me to pick Id pick Navy 10/10 times, I think SMU is outright silly...

I havent bet any points on SBR (I dont even know how to go about it), but if your so confident in your bet, Ill challenge you on this game??

GL to you Pags

**snapstick** · 10-16-09, 12:41 PM

SMU over the key number is the play for me. SMU +7.5 is the right play in my opinion!

**pags11** · 10-16-09, 03:09 PM

ashred,

25 years of doing this, I'm a little more ahead of the curve than you, who seems to be a bit green...which is fine, you are trying and learning and that's what counts...

what does me taking Louisville this week have anything to do with the SMU game? are you serious? what type of logic are you using to come up with a comment like that?...dude you are out there, let me tell you...

if you had more of a track record of being around here I would gladly bet you some SBR points on this game but I don't know you and don't want to risk being stiffed...you will thank me for not taking you up on this on Saturday night...

**Ralphie1412** · 10-16-09, 03:29 PM

Durito start watching football weirdo and get unbanned from pfreaks.

**aeshred** · 10-16-09, 03:54 PM

Originally posted by pags11

ashred,

25 years of doing this, I'm a little more ahead of the curve than you, who seems to be a bit green...which is fine, you are trying and learning and that's what counts...

what does me taking Louisville this week have anything to do with the SMU game? are you serious? what type of logic are you using to come up with a comment like that?...dude you are out there, let me tell you...

if you had more of a track record of being around here I would gladly bet you some SBR points on this game but I don't know you and don't want to risk being stiffed...you will thank me for not taking you up on this on Saturday night...

Pags w all do respect you need people to challenge you and stop hugging your nuts to keep you honest, so Im not challenging you to be a dick by any means. Ive recognized some of your plays and you have some good ones, you are a good capper. Im simply challenging the play not the man.

As far as my logic on louisville, its simple 11-12 pts is a great thing to have on inter conference play, but louisville is pretty weak and uconn is decent at home.

Disregard the 18pt thing that was Louisiana blabla not Louisville lol my bad

Thats what 12 hrs of straight studying will do to your brain.

Louisville might be a decent play

I know I dont have much of a track record right now, and I wont this year bc I am a full time student (who is graduating) and I work full time so I dont get the time I need every week, but I plan on being here alot nxt yr for sure.

But next time I challenge one of your plays dont take it as disrespect... Im on this site for consensus, Its not like i pulled a Zboiz and bombarded this whole post to hell.

Im still content w the SBR points so If I have to fork over say 100pts right now if I win you fork over 200 if I lose you already have the 100...
What say you Pags???

Just give a little help on how to do it...

**aeshred** · 10-16-09, 04:06 PM

ah I figured out how to transfer pts,

so Pags how bout a 100pt bet

docsports has this documented at Wsex, 5Dimes, Bodog, Bookmaker at 7pts

stations was at 7.5

I think 7 pts is fair, just let me know??

**pags11** · 10-16-09, 04:12 PM

ok, I understand you made a mistake on the Louisville comment, no prob...

yes, +7 is fair based on the current line...let's do a 100 point wager...you have Navy -7, I have SMU +7...you transfer me 50 now, if I win you transfer me another 50 after the game...if I lose I transfer you 150...I will know you accept once you transfer the points over to me...

**pags11** · 10-16-09, 04:23 PM

aeshred,

we have ourselves a deal...GL...

**aeshred** · 10-16-09, 04:23 PM

Its a done deal Pags, GL w Smooo, or (Rich douchers from Big D) as I call em...

**pags11** · 10-16-09, 05:07 PM

hahahaha...I know it, I went to school with all of the chicks who couldn't afford to go to SMU that were from Dallas when I was in Louisiana...

Jones knew what he was getting into when he took the job though, I think they will surprise you tomorrow...

**frostno98** · 10-17-09, 08:39 PM

bump

**Cougar Bait** · 10-17-09, 08:42 PM

Yeah, ouch. Glad I have SMU.

**paco** · 10-17-09, 08:45 PM

great call. Smu was the sharp play. Navy overrated and the triple option is played out

**Cougar Bait** · 10-17-09, 09:22 PM

Game tied now...could be an interesting finale

**hornet0202** · 10-17-09, 09:58 PM

And SMU was looking like an easy cover at halftime. Now down 35-28. Come on SMU.....

**Cougar Bait** · 10-17-09, 10:12 PM

Td smu!

**atlsportsfan** · 10-17-09, 10:13 PM

Yes TD SMU Tied 35-35

**detroit71** · 10-17-09, 10:26 PM

OT,I CANNOT LOSE WITH smu +7.5 Yeah Baby