Wal's College Football Week #7

[xyzky]

QH.............I read the blog I now know who we is. this thing about having enough combined money to get down early though, can't anyone get down as soon as the lines are out? Does this mean "WE" have access to lines before they are made public? I guess it's possible but I'm skeptical. Or do you mean something entirely different?

Yes Wal, there are certain books that let people bet into lines before they are even made public. They dont mind taking the small loss with them because they can adjust the lines before it goes out to the public...

[wal66]

Cool, learn something everyday. Thanks xyzky

[wal66]

Boise St @ Tulsa

My program says Boise by 15. I generally follow the program’s advice when I have no real knowledge of the teams playing. I have seen Boise St play twice this season but haven’t seen Tulsa play at all. I have looked at opponents each team has faced and agree that while both schedules have been relatively soft Boise has certainly played better teams. Tulsa did play Oklahoma without Bradford and got steamrolled and shut-out but that was on the road and when a team gets on a roll like an Oklahoma team can it can easily get out of hand.

My problem with this game and with my program is the opening line. It opened briefly at 9.5 shot up to 10 then bottomed out at 8.5 and is currently back to 9.5 maybe 9 at some places. I’m showing roughly 73% on Boise. Keep in mind those are my percentages yours may vary. I would have thought the opening line would have been a little higher. Somewhere in the 13 range at a minimum. It opening at 9.5 instantly got an initial wave of Boise support which is what I’m thinking would have been expected. After all this is a Boise St team that has heard everywhere that they only really have one obstacle remaining on their schedule to prevent them from gaining a BCS bowl.

Then I start thinking (sometimes over thinking is a serious fault of mine) that the books have already taken a hit this past week. Not that I have access or any real knowledge, just a good feeling that with Florida covering and even some patient LSU backers getting a cover or a push, the Alabama backers the Giants, Vikings, Eagle and Colts backers all covering the books had to have taken a hit this weekend. If this is true then why would they open a Boise St game that has real motivational value to the team at such a reasonable number?

As I said I am probably looking way beyond what is obvious here. I should stay away or trust my program but sometimes you just have to follow what your gut is telling you.

Play:

Tulsa +9 ½ unit (bought the hook)
Teaser
Boise St -3 and over 48.5*

[wal66]

[wal66]

Cincinnati @ South Florida

Records:
Cincinnati 5-0 (3-2 ATS)
South Florida 5-0 (3-1 ATS)
Trends:
Over is 9-3-1 in Cincy’s last 13 games on grass.
Over is 8-3 in USF’s last 11 games home games.
Under is 8-0 in Cincy’s last 8 Thursday games.
Under is 7-1 in USF’s last 8 games as an underdog.

Quarterbacks:
Tony Pike is 116/173 for 1492 yards, 13 touchdowns to just 3 interceptions in 5 games.
BJ Daniels is 32/56 for 602 yards, 6 touchdowns and 2 interceptions in 2.5 games.

X-Factor:
Tonight’s game could be a real classic. Sure it could be a total dud but the potential is there to be one entertaining battle. Cincinnati comes to Raymond James Stadium undefeated to face undefeated South Florida. Cincy brings their gun slinging pro-prospect quarterback Tony Pike with all his experience and impressive numbers. South Florida takes the field with a young inexperienced young gun that was thrown into active duty just 2.5 games ago after Grothe went out for the season due to injury. What BJ Daniels has done since taking over gives USF confidence in their future though. While he has made a couple of mistakes for the most part he has been efficient and effective. He has shown that he possesses a strong arm with good delivery and should only get better with time. When Daniels needs to he is very capable of tucking and running the ball with some skill as well. South Florida as a whole on offense hasn’t put up the numbers equal to that of numbers they were putting up when Grothe was at the helm but the teams they have faced since have been much better caliber. The real strength of South Florida is their defense. These guys are fast, aggressive and they will absolutely lay the lumber, and did I mention they are FAST. Physical and athletic but more importantly they have shown more discipline than previous South Florida defenses. There are still some questions in the secondary at times but overall the defense is much better. Not to be ignored is the Cincinnati defense. Many thought this would be their ultimate downfall this season as they had to replace so many due to the draft and graduation. That hasn’t been the case though. Coach Kelly has these guys playing very aggressive solid fundamental defense.
Here are the keys in my mind to tonight’s game. First, South Florida has had a history recently of fast starts and ultimate letdowns that cost them momentum which leads to a couple of losses that ruins title hopes. The crowd will obviously be hyped and let’s face it with the Buck’s playing so poorly all of Tampa should be out filling the stadium for the biggest game in town this season. Can South Florida handle the hype and their new arrival in the Top 25? Secondly and most importantly to me will be the match-up between South Florida’s defensive front vs. Cincy’s offensive line. If South Florida can get pressure on Pike and allow the backers to drop into coverage then edge goes to South Florida’s athletes and this game could get ugly for Cincy. However if Pike isn’t under pressure all night and has time to find his receivers then South Florida will be in for a battle and most likely lose this game. Seems like when we have really good defenses far too often they aren’t the real factor and somehow plenty of points get put on the scoreboard. I have seen that a slight percentage advantage is on the over and the line has gone down and that is the only real edge I can see.

Program Pick:
My program liked Cincy by 4.5 and that was of no value for a play as the line when I did the work was Cincy -3.5.

Play:

Cincy/South Florida under 48 (1/2 unit)

Opinion:
South Florida Money Line

[wal66]

Cincy/USF under LOSER

3-1 for the week.

[Cougar Bait]

GL the rest of the way Wal. You on Pitt with us tonight too?

[wal66]

Coug's I don't have a play yet tonight. I might have something later if I find an edge beyond that of the obvious ones. It'll be a small entertainment type wager if I do though unless I see something with line movement that begs for more.

Good fortune to your weekend card to.

[wal66]

6-1 Today 9-2 for the week. That's 18-4 the past two weeks.

[Cougar Bait]

Nice week Wal...Can't possibly complain with that record can you? Nice job!

SMU going down to the wire and UCF looks like they are blowing it. Other than that, I've had a great day as well.

[wal66]

Staying ahead of the curve Coug's always great when you sta a step ahead. Glad your day has gone well. This stuff gets fun when they fall like ya want'em to huh.

[AdaBarber]

Nice week Wal. I went 7-4 with my new system I invented. The extra filter I added really pinned down the games I needed to play. I will check with you during the week. Good luck, brother.