Wal's College Football Week #7

**mmike032** · 10-12-09, 08:48 AM

stay away from UGA at Vandy.
Vandy game is always a close game for some unknown reason.
I like Vandy +7.5 in this one but probally wont play it.

**wal66** · 10-12-09, 09:38 AM

I generally like Vandy a couple times a year in certain spots. This isn't one of them though. Not sure yet but right now it's looking like a play. Vandy had a real chance to get a much needed win this past weekend at ARMy and failed to do so. As bad as Georgia is and they are bad they still have potential against weaker opponents. Yeah I know Tennessee is a weaker opponent but different circumstances. Like I said I'm not commited yet and still may not be. Looking into a couple more things first.

**mmike032** · 10-12-09, 09:50 AM

I havent paid much attention to Vandy this year, and havent looked into the game except for GAs short comings which are obvious.
I think every coach in the SEC now has a blueprint to beat GA after Saturday. not that it was a big secret anyway
Play actions, bootlegs, etc..
w/out a running game GA will not win another game this year with exception to Tenn Tech.
just going off memory I believe last year the game came down to a final drive by GA late in the game, the 2 yrs before were decided with a FG. Vandy winning by 3 in Vandy 1 of those years I believe. Past yrs dont mean jack, but for some reason Vandy is always up for this game and keeps it close. This year GA wont have to play down to Vandy to keep it close.

**BigdaddyQH** · 10-12-09, 09:52 AM

We took Indiana +3 when the lines first came out yesterday. Hard to believe that Illinois, who has yet to defeat a FBS team, can be favored on the road. Do we know who Illinois QB is going to be?

**wal66** · 10-12-09, 09:57 AM

Hell QH I don't even know who WE are. lol..........Indiana is on the shortlist for me as well.

**BigdaddyQH** · 10-12-09, 10:02 AM

Originally posted by wal66

Hell QH I don't even know who WE are. lol..........Indiana is on the shortlist for me as well.

If you read my blog, it explains who "we" are.

**Dbldown11** · 10-12-09, 10:10 AM

Originally posted by BigdaddyQH

If you read my blog, it explains who "we" are.

haha Wal I think the same thing everytime he posts his "we" picks.....kinda scares me

**wal66** · 10-12-09, 04:33 PM

QH.............I read the blog I now know who we is. this thing about having enough combined money to get down early though, can't anyone get down as soon as the lines are out? Does this mean "WE" have access to lines before they are made public? I guess it's possible but I'm skeptical. Or do you mean something entirely different?

**Dbldown11** · 10-12-09, 04:40 PM

haha I was wondering that too....you have to have a certain amount to bet early lines?

**wal66** · 10-12-09, 04:53 PM

Ok here are the official plays this week. Hard time narrowing this card down. There were just too many program picks laying chalk. Generally I end up with almost 50/50 fav/Dog plays to chose from and this week it wasn't even close. I feel as maybe I am forcing the two dog plays so I would absolutely caution anyone considering them to look into them deep.

Bowling Green -5*

Georgia -7* (buying the hook)

Central Michigan -7* (buying the hook)

Boston College -3*

UL Lafayette -7* (buying the hook)

Indiana +3*

Baylor ML* (I don't have access till Saturday on my site for ML's)

**pags11** · 10-12-09, 05:01 PM

GL wal...

**wal66** · 10-12-09, 05:10 PM

Might need more than luck this week as sometimes you just don't feel as confident. I trust my program I'm just concerned if I selected the correct games. Time will tell.

**Cougar Bait** · 10-12-09, 05:13 PM

I like Ohio State and Kentucky this week from your list. OSU D line should absolutely destroy Purdue. Pitt is another game I am looking at. Wanny tends to frustrate me when giving points though. That's another D line that has impressed me in the 4 games I've gotten to watch them this year. Ohio and Louisville also look inviting, but I am gunshy about both. Can't touch Indiana this week after that embarrassment in Virginia. Christ. I don't care if they are playing Illinois. GL with all your plays Wal. You are a great guy to have around here.

**wal66** · 10-12-09, 05:39 PM

Good to see ya made the right choice Coug's Your plays will come to you once your head is clear. I wanted to play Ohio St but just couldn't play all the games on the qualifying list. As far as actually making a play on Indiana goes I'm not super stoked about having them on here jst gonna trust the program. Speaking of Virginia they qualified this week and might be added to the card later. I will probably add a few during the week since we have football every single night. Love football every single night. We should have football every single night every single week.

**Cougar Bait** · 10-12-09, 05:44 PM

If we had football every single night every single week, I would have no girlfriend and a huge drinking problem.

**wal66** · 10-12-09, 05:53 PM

Coug's every single game has a halftime. How much time does your girl require during football season?

**Cougar Bait** · 10-12-09, 06:02 PM

Oh she's self-sufficient. It works out pretty well. It does bother her when I invite 3 or 4 Cougars over to watch it with me though.

**AdaBarber** · 10-12-09, 08:57 PM

Wal66 we must use the same program. LOL. If both of us are right I will be a very happy man. Check my thread and look at the picks I have. You will be shocked. I go through every game and apply three criteria before I book it. AdaBarber's Catch 'Em Early Week 7 picks. I am serious. I have the same exact games. Well most of them. Because of you I can rest easy. Good luck my friend.

PS: My record is shabby because I have not played with discipline the first week I started, which was week 5, and I got killed. I am on the way back. I was taking borderline games.

**HoulihansTX** · 10-12-09, 10:07 PM

Florida will cover, and big. Auburn was just overrated, and Arkansas is primarily an offensive team. That stops against Florida, which will be gunning for a blowout. Nobody likes Petrino. I know you saw Florida's defense. Fcuking impenetrable.

**Cubs2240** · 10-12-09, 11:33 PM

Originally posted by wal66

Might need more than luck this week as sometimes you just don't feel as confident. I trust my program I'm just concerned if I selected the correct games. Time will tell.

"my Program" ....sorry I'm new to this Forum. Please explain. I need all the help I can get.

**wal66** · 10-13-09, 06:56 AM

Cubs...........it's just a computer model I designed through trial and error (alot of error) to give me a projected line. I run every game on the schedule and the games that give me a minimum of 3.5 points of value on the actual line qualify as plays. Last year I had a source to help eliminate plays from that point on to get to a managable card but unfortunately this year that source is no-longer available and I now have to choose the final plays myself.

Last year was the first time I have used this model for an entire season and it is still documented at my other site where it went 66% for the regular season. Didn't do so well in the bowl games but that's because there are so many other variables that come into play at that point. I joined SBR mid-seson last year and maintained the 66% here for the remainder of the regular season.

Objectivity is an essential part of capping a game. Too many of us get in our own way by thinking we know more than we actually do. We allow our perspective to get skewed because of emotion or any number of other character traits. Having a program, model, system or whatever helps to eliminate some of this. It's not for everyone certainly. I mean there are those and plenty of them even that have enough experience, control and disapline to not need an aide. I know my limitations though and realized that if I wanted to actually enjoy this hobby (it is a hobby for me, I never have nor will I ever be a professional gambler) I needed help.

**wal66** · 10-13-09, 07:07 AM

Cubs almost forgot. Outside of helping actually show a profit for the year last season in college football the biggest thing it di was help me identify the underdogs that had the best potential of covering. As I said this is a hobby and like many who aren't or haven't been fully commited it seemed logical to only play favorites. Yes, I am a self-confessed former (sometimes still) square. With this program though I'm more of an octagon now.

**AdaBarber** · 10-13-09, 07:11 AM

Originally posted by wal66

Cubs...........it's just a computer model I designed through trial and error (alot of error) to give me a projected line. I run every game on the schedule and the games that give me a minimum of 3.5 points of value on the actual line qualify as plays. Last year I had a source to help eliminate plays from that point on to get to a managable card but unfortunately this year that source is no-longer available and I now have to choose the final plays myself.

Last year was the first time I have used this model for an entire season and it is still documented at my other site where it went 66% for the regular season. Didn't do so well in the bowl games but that's because there are so many other variables that come into play at that point. I joined SBR mid-seson last year and maintained the 66% here for the remainder of the regular season.

Objectivity is an essential part of capping a game. Too many of us get in our own way by thinking we know more than we actually do. We allow our perspective to get skewed because of emotion or any number of other character traits. Having a program, model, system or whatever helps to eliminate some of this. It's not for everyone certainly. I mean there are those and plenty of them even that have enough experience, control and disapline to not need an aide. I know my limitations though and realized that if I wanted to actually enjoy this hobby (it is a hobby for me, I never have nor will I ever be a professional gambler) I needed help.

Very well put wal66. I believe in what you say 100%. I use to do this system that I invented some 15 years ago and all I played was 5 team parlays. I was successful with it because I managed to hit at least four to five times a year. And that was pretty good. Now that I play straight singles I should fare well. Also, I just added two more indexes to lessen the card to the best possible picks. That way the lines really don't matter to me that much. And I wish I could become a professional gambler but you have to involve everything else that you mentioned that you don't do. I am the same as well. They may laugh at how we it do but it works. So let's cash some tickets and let the naysayers say nay!

**AdaBarber** · 10-13-09, 07:16 AM

My only problem was that I would push the envelope and take borderline games, and they were exactly that. I did not do this this week. I left all the borderline bets alone because I have come out on the losing end. So I need to get my record straight and get a profit. I gained last weekend so this does work as long as I stay disciplined. I am anxious to push the button on these week day games but none of them made it. So I will leave them alone. Good work wal66.

**wal66** · 10-13-09, 07:20 AM

Ada...........I can be completely honest, the reason it was so much easier last year was because I used Mejia's selections in the elimination process. When my program aligned with his selection on an underdog to win outright it had a very high hit rate. I guess Mejia isn't doing it anymore or has move because I haven't been able to find his selections anywhere this season.

**Cubs2240** · 10-13-09, 08:09 AM

Originally posted by wal66

Cubs almost forgot. Outside of helping actually show a profit for the year last season in college football the biggest thing it di was help me identify the underdogs that had the best potential of covering. As I said this is a hobby and like many who aren't or haven't been fully commited it seemed logical to only play favorites. Yes, I am a self-confessed former (sometimes still) square. With this program though I'm more of an octagon now.

Thank you for your help. Love your pics you have this week. GL

**wal66** · 10-13-09, 08:10 AM

Originally posted by HoulihansTX

Florida will cover, and big. Auburn was just overrated, and Arkansas is primarily an offensive team. That stops against Florida, which will be gunning for a blowout. Nobody likes Petrino. I know you saw Florida's defense. Fcuking impenetrable.

I'm most likely staying away from the Florida game this weekend. It is true that Arky's defense is not a top tier defense in the SEC or seriously all that good period, but I can't lay 24 points till Florida shows they can cover that against someone other than Charleston and Troy. Not doubting Florida's potential just not putting money in play on them this weekend. There has been much discussion about Florida's receivers and the offense as a whole in threads around here. The problem isn't so much with the receivers themselves the problem is more in the schemes. Most passing plays have been done in a rollout. While it does slow down the defense because of the threat to pull the ball down and run it also increases the inaccuracy of the pass and narrows the feild of play. Also it's certainly not in doubt that Florida's defense is not seriously stout but this will be the best quarterback they will have faced so far this season. If Arky's o-line can give Mallet any time at all he will have his opportunities to make a couple of plays. It's a guessing game but if I were guessing I want want to start with 24 in the bag.

**wal66** · 10-13-09, 02:09 PM

I really need to be more disapplined about these weeknight games. I'll start next wek maybe.
Alot of information going on here about tonights game. I personally have no knowledge of either teams performances thus far other than obviously looking at who they have played and the numbers but that still doesn't tell me much because anytime you have such a weaker scholl playing against better schools if you don't actually see the game you don't understand what really was going on.

So since there is a game tonight and because I still have degenerate tendencies this is how I decided. My numbers show a 50.6% to 49.4% in Arkansas St's favor which don't qualify high enough for me on RLM. I tend to use a minimum of 62% for tracking purposes. My program did have value with UL Monroe though.

Play:
UL Monroe -2.5 (1/2 unit) who says I can't be disapplined.

As an added bonus I'll take the first person that steps up and want's Arky +3 for 50 points. I gotta win or come up with another nominated blog spot this week and I'm just not feeling creative.

**Dbldown11** · 10-13-09, 02:10 PM

Originally posted by wal66

I'm most likely staying away from the Florida game this weekend. It is true that Arky's defense is not a top tier defense in the SEC or seriously all that good period, but I can't lay 24 points till Florida shows they can cover that against someone other than Charleston and Troy. Not doubting Florida's potential just not putting money in play on them this weekend. There has been much discussion about Florida's receivers and the offense as a whole in threads around here. The problem isn't so much with the receivers themselves the problem is more in the schemes. Most passing plays have been done in a rollout. While it does slow down the defense because of the threat to pull the ball down and run it also increases the inaccuracy of the pass and narrows the feild of play. Also it's certainly not in doubt that Florida's defense is not seriously stout but this will be the best quarterback they will have faced so far this season. If Arky's o-line can give Mallet any time at all he will have his opportunities to make a couple of plays. It's a guessing game but if I were guessing I want want to start with 24 in the bag.

They did cover it against someone other than charleston and troy.....they covered it against Kentucky

**Dbldown11** · 10-13-09, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by wal66

I really need to be more disapplined about these weeknight games. I'll start next wek maybe.
Alot of information going on here about tonights game. I personally have no knowledge of either teams performances thus far other than obviously looking at who they have played and the numbers but that still doesn't tell me much because anytime you have such a weaker scholl playing against better schools if you don't actually see the game you don't understand what really was going on.

So since there is a game tonight and because I still have degenerate tendencies this is how I decided. My numbers show a 50.6% to 49.4% in Arkansas St's favor which don't qualify high enough for me on RLM. I tend to use a minimum of 62% for tracking purposes. My program did have value with UL Monroe though.

Play:
UL Monroe -2.5 (1/2 unit) who says I can't be disapplined.

As an added bonus I'll take the first person that steps up and want's Arky +3 for 50 points. I gotta win or come up with another nominated blog spot this week and I'm just not feeling creative.

I just wish I had the points to wager with you......

La. Monroes 3 wins come against teams with a combined record of 2-13.
Ark. St.'s 3 losses come against teams with a combined record of 13-3

**wal66** · 10-13-09, 02:21 PM

I know and you're probably right DblDown. You've done the studying and looked into everything. For this game I am simply playing the program and I am almost certain it is skewed due the records. It is suposed to consider strength of schedule as well so that part has me a lil confused. the only thing I disagree with in what some people have reported about the easy wins over Florida Atlantic and Florida Int is that even though these teams aren't showing it in their records they are still very competitive lower teir teams. While Arky has faced stiffer competetion we all know once you're in conference play some teams just hold an advantage over another. I'm not real confident obviously since it's only a half unit bet. just want a lil action.

**twincities77** · 10-13-09, 02:55 PM

Wal,

Very nice picks, I try to use objective modeling for games as well, although I'm still working it through. That said, I'm on four of the same games as you and don't have an objection to the others. Best of luck. Oh, and my projections have Monroe covering tonight as well.

**wal66** · 10-14-09, 06:50 AM

UL Monroe winner

Wasn't pretty but a win is a win. 1-0 to start the week.

**HoulihansTX** · 10-14-09, 09:04 AM

Originally posted by wal66

UL Monroe winner Wasn't pretty but a win is a win. 1-0 to start the week.

Congrats. Those teams played pretty shitty, but being on the right side is point of gambling.