Ok after back to back tv losers on Mizzou...and MTSU...what is next? Went over the stats and it looks like Nevada can run...but on defense they cannot cover the pass at all?
What happens here boys???
What happens here boys???
-
-
G's This game should have made my playlist this week. It exceeded my minimal requirements to become a play. Infact according to my program LA Tech rated as a 2.5 point favorite.
Keep in mind though Midd Tenn St earlier in the week was also according to the program a predicted outright winner as well. The difference in tonights game based on the program and the Tuesday nights game are the stats that the program is based on. There were some heavy anti stats that should have been filtered out on Troy due to their opponents faced. (i.e. Florida) Nevada and LA Tech have faced comparable type opponents both strong and weak so the numbers should be a little better for the model to calculate.
I haven't yet made a play on tonights game because I was gonna try and stay away from weeknight games this week but that hasn't worked so well since I've already bet on both Mid Tenn St and Nebraska. I'll most likely be on LA Tech by tonight though.Comment -
I took LA Tech and the points. Nevada may win but I dont seem them covering.Comment -
tonight
I love La Tech also.... Im 1-1 this week lost on MTst and hit on Nebraska... GL all
saturday I like Mich st-4, Alabama-6, Aurburn-2, Oregon-3Comment -
Thanks guys more opinions are welcome! I enjoy the football games much more this time of year than baseball. I had a small prop bet on the Cards scoring 3 runs first yesterday...it lost... By the time I got home from dinner it was 2-1 cards and boring as hell...click..
Played/lost the Mizzou game but at least had fun watching a crappy game... A crappy football game beats a crappy baseball game any day!Comment -
any one going to buy 3 point so it is 13.5?Comment -
With this game it looks to me like if Nevada would do nothing but run the ball they would be very successful... Does anyone know anything about the LA Tech QB/receivers... Nevada is horrible against the pass...Comment -
wal66 if I am reading correctly though... will take a second look...is La tech averaging only 13 pts a game on road??? That would not be good...against Nevada...but I am sure nevada will let up at least 21-28 points if this team can score...Comment -
I actually decided to tease this game. I don't do it very often but I played the under also. I took La. Tech +16.5 and Under 64. Everything I researched points to somewhere around a 34-27 game. Goodluck everyone.Comment -
This game seems really hard for me to handicap based on the reasons you mentioned in the OP. On one hand it looks like Nevada should run all over LT. On the other, it looks like LT should be fairly successful in the air. That said I can't find any reason to really like Nevada, but that line move reeks of sharp money. I'm guessing 10.5 is ballpark correct line and there's not a lot of value here either way.Comment -
NEVADA (-10.5) 38 Louisiana Tech 24
Nevada is now 17-3 ATS as a home favorite under coach Ault after destroying UNLV 63-28 last week while racking up 775 total yards at 10.8 yards per play. That was Nevada's first win of the season, but the Wolf Pack are better than a 1-3 team and have been quite unlucky in being -8 in fumbles lost margin in just 4 games. After starting the season with a blowout loss at Notre Dame, the Wolf Pack lost to Colorado State because of a -5 in turnover margin (they out-gained CSU), lost by 10 at home to a good Missouri team, and then beat up on UNLV last week. Overall, Nevada has averaged 6.9 yppl and allowed 6.3 yppl this season against a better than average schedule of teams and they should continue their climb back towards .500 with a win tonight over a worse than average Louisiana Tech team. The Bulldogs are 0.3 yppl worse than average offensively (5.6 yppl against teams that would allow 5.9 yppl to an average team), average defensively (5.5 yppl against teams that would average 5.5 yppl), and worse than average in special teams. Tech's defense id a good job last week at home against a good Hawaii pass attack, but they gave up over 300 rushing yards to both Auburn and Navy, the two good rushing teams that they've faced and Nevada should run all over them tonight given that the Wolf Pack have averaged 5.7 yards per rushing play or more in all 4 of their games and are averaging 7.6 yprp for the season. Nevada quarterback Colin Kaepernick is also more than capable of having success throwing the ball and my math model calls for an 11 point victory. There is extra home field advantage here in Reno, so I'll call for a 14 point margin."This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
Goat MilkComment -
i watched lou tech against hawaii, all tech did was run the ball..either hawaii is terrible run deffenst or tech could run the ball well, didn't pass very much...watched nevada against mizzou, didn't think it was much of a game, but mizzou pretty good team i know they getting bashed on here right now, but they had nebraska down for 3 quarters...so i believe its a no play and i am not playing it, but my choice would be nevada -10.5
Comment -
Nevada wins will not cover 11.5 lots of scoringComment -
Nothing like copying and pasting dr bobs writeup huh ralphie what a joke.Comment -
G's...........I tried to send you 5 points that Z was gonna give you if Missouri won the second half bet I made with him. It said you don't exist.Comment -
"This is why my basketball intelligence is unmatched on this site. I'm sure there are better cappers but no one can tell you the strategies of most coaches before the game even starts "
Goat MilkComment -
Who is this Dr. Bob? I'm assuming another service guy?Comment -
I'm afraid.
I'm very afraid of college football this year.
Very afraid.Comment -
The line is as high as 11 in some Vegas books. I think it all depends on which Nevada team shows up. It is tough to gie 11 points and back a 1-3 team. Pass.Comment -
The O/U line has dropped to 56 1/2 in some books even when the public is on the OVER, thats a big RLM IMO... I think this game will go UNDER, havent pulled the trigger yet, any opinions... ?Comment -
That worked. I was trying a transfer through MyPoints.Comment -
I love the under yesterday and kept waiting...by game time because of rain it had dropped from 54.5 to 49.5...so I bet Mizzou instead...
Last weekend I had under think it was 52-53 in penn st/Ill game.. think it was 10 points or 17 at half.. was 20 at the end of 3... guess what 35 in 4th Q!
The o/u's are hard to predict!Comment -
Is there anyone that can tell us what this La Tech team will do someone must follow them... I did see Nevada once this year...think it was against Mizzou... They seemed ok...nothing special..Comment -
I'm leaning nevada- their 1-3 record doesn't bother me-they lost at Notre Dame, at Colo St.,and gave Mizz a tough game and in fact had it not been for a Nevada fumble on their own 2 yd line they were in a position to tie the game and possibly roll to a win. Their offense can rack up some yards and points and I don't think La Tech has the offense to get into a shoot out. Mizz has been getting bashed on here but they are not a bad team and Nevada defense played a decent game against them. I'm putting a small chunk on Nevada--Comment -
Easier to take La Tech in this spot plus the points.
Any team from Nevada might do some "Shaving".
GL.Comment -
I teased it and took La tech +17 and U 64.5Comment -
wow this is going to be a tough choice...but by game time...will be on someone... How about Nev -3.5 and La tech +17.5... in a two team 7 point teaser... probably not but just thinking...would that be allowed?Comment -
Red - Hot trends are trends 80% or higher. Blue - Cold trends are trends 20% or lower.
ATS Trends
Louisiana Tech- <LI class=morehot>Bulldogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games on fieldturf. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 conference games. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 13-28 ATS in their last 41 games as an underdog. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 16-36-1 ATS in their last 53 games as a road underdog. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games in October. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 9-22-1 ATS in their last 32 games following a ATS win. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 14-37-1 ATS in their last 52 road games. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 7-19 ATS in their last 26 games as an underdog of 10.5 or greater. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 9-28-1 ATS in their last 38 games following a S.U. win. <LI class=more>Bulldogs are 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games following a SU win of more than 20 points. <LI class=morecool>Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS vs. a team with a losing record. <LI class=morecool>Bulldogs are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
- Bulldogs are 5-22 ATS in their last 27 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
Nevada- <LI class=morehot>Wolf Pack are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater. <LI class=morehot>Wolf Pack are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater. <LI class=more>Wolf Pack are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games as a home favorite. <LI class=more>Wolf Pack are 22-9 ATS in their last 31 home games. <LI class=more>Wolf Pack are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. <LI class=morecool>Wolf Pack are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win. <LI class=morecool>Wolf Pack are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS win. <LI class=morecool>Wolf Pack are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Wolf Pack are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games overall.
OU Trends
Louisiana Tech- <LI class=morehot>Under is 7-1 in Bulldogs last 8 games as a road underdog. <LI class=morehot>Under is 6-1 in Bulldogs last 7 games after allowing more than 280 yards passing in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games on fieldturf. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games after accumulating less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Under is 5-1 in Bulldogs last 6 games following a ATS win. <LI class=more>Under is 7-2 in Bulldogs last 9 road games. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3 in Bulldogs last 11 games as an underdog. <LI class=more>Under is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or greater.
- Over is 5-2 in Bulldogs last 7 conference games.
Nevada- <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-0 in Wolf Pack last 5 games following a S.U. win. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-0 in Wolf Pack last 4 games following a ATS win. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1 in Wolf Pack last 6 games on fieldturf. <LI class=morehot>Over is 5-1 in Wolf Pack last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-1 in Wolf Pack last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-1 in Wolf Pack last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-1 in Wolf Pack last 5 games as a favorite. <LI class=morehot>Over is 4-1 in Wolf Pack last 5 conference games. <LI class=more>Under is 8-3 in Wolf Pack last 11 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
- Under is 5-2 in Wolf Pack last 7 games as a favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Head to Head
- <LI class=morehot>Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings. <LI class=morehot>Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
- Over is 6-2 in the last 8 meetings.
Comment
