RLM On Tonight's Game?

**Hybris** · 09-30-09, 04:17 PM

+6 on hawaii is a gift tbh...(not Miami)

**spongerat** · 09-30-09, 04:36 PM

miami? hawaii is not playing miami

**Dana4U** · 09-30-09, 04:42 PM

Not RLM

It would be a RLM play if the public was on the Louisana Tech side. But like you have pointed out, as of 5:00pm, 58% are on Hawaii, so it's not a reverse line movement.

**Cougar Bait** · 09-30-09, 04:43 PM

The confusion continues...

**darkenergy** · 09-30-09, 04:44 PM

On the other hand.....I booked OVER 55.5 last night. Now 83% on OVER and line dipping to 55 in some books

, I might hedge back this play.

**KingKing** · 09-30-09, 04:44 PM

**darkenergy** · 09-30-09, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by Dana4U

It would be a RLM play if the public was on the Louisana Tech side. But like you have pointed out, as of 5:00pm, 58% are on Hawaii, so it's not a reverse line movement.

Dana, I thought this is a true RLM.
More public are on Hawaii and the line went up to -6, which the books make Hawaii are more attractive to be on for bettors. If the public pounding more on Hawaii from now to game time (70% or more), then LAtech clearly a HEAVY play per RLM rule.

**Cougar Bait** · 09-30-09, 04:50 PM

That was my point, maybe I didn't state it correctly. Why does Vegas want more action on Hawaii if the majority of bets are already there?

**darkenergy** · 09-30-09, 05:02 PM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

That was my point, maybe I didn't state it correctly. Why does Vegas want more action on Hawaii if the majority of bets are already there?

Because they are greed

.
Keep in mind, some weeks all games fit into RLM are cashed, some other weeks all RLM's games are not. This is like a poker game between sharp players and Vegas. They never let you figure out the pattern, that's for sure.

**billmunny** · 09-30-09, 05:06 PM

I was just going to post about this. Touts and public seem to be on Hawaii -- yet the line keeps moving the opposite way. Fishy...

**khaden** · 09-30-09, 05:23 PM

I see alot of touts on la tech??????

**MJFtheGenius** · 09-30-09, 05:31 PM

Originally posted by Dana4U

It would be a RLM play if the public was on the Louisana Tech side. But like you have pointed out, as of 5:00pm, 58% are on Hawaii, so it's not a reverse line movement.

**tbill11** · 09-30-09, 05:32 PM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

That was my point, maybe I didn't state it correctly. Why does Vegas want more action on Hawaii if the majority of bets are already there?

It's usually because the bigger gamblers are on the opposite side. The public percentage isn't as important as where the smart money is going. Vegas wants about 50/50 on each side, so this generally signifies that there are some big bets on the LA Tech side.

Or Vegas is just really confident that LA Tech will cover and wants to get greedy.

**freeVICK** · 09-30-09, 05:44 PM

touts don't no shit abou Hawaii.

Hawaii ml +190

**crackerjack** · 09-30-09, 05:48 PM

RLM is a poor indicator. If 99 people bet $1000 bucks on one side and one person bets $1 million on the other, the line will move and you'll say Reverse Line Movement because 99 percent bet on one side! But maybe 99 people will be right.

**MJFtheGenius** · 09-30-09, 05:51 PM

Originally posted by crackerjack

RLM is a poor indicator. If 99 people bet $1000 bucks on one side and one person bets $1 million on the other, the line will move and you'll say Reverse Line Movement because 99 percent bet on one side! But maybe 99 people will be right.

well statiscly betting stirctly on RLV wins over the long run.....

that may have been the dumbest theory I have read on this forum...ever

**Ralphie1412** · 09-30-09, 06:00 PM

this game is under city.....with everyone loving the over, plus pams n charge like it, PLUS it has moved 2 points, plus RLM......sorry over backers, you're ****ed.

**Rixsaw** · 09-30-09, 06:11 PM

Something is extremely odd about this line. I like Hawaii so much that I'm force to take the side line and watch the game rather than taking LA Tech. It's clearly an RLM. But I don't see how Hawaii can loose this game much less loosing by a TD; unless of course, the QB get injured.

Good luck guys.

**Dana4U** · 09-30-09, 07:38 PM

Here is the way I understand it (from LT Profits):

RLM occurs when the line moves in the opposite direction of the side that has the higher percentage of bets.

That was not the case here since Hawaii was the higher percentage team and the line moved in the same direction as where the money goes. Hawaii opened at -4, gets 58% of the bets and line moves to -6. The move is expected and you should do nothing. This is not RLM.

**The General** · 09-30-09, 07:41 PM

It's not about the consensus as much as it is about the money placed on the sides/totals. If 9 of 10 bettors wager Team A for 1 dollar and then the 10th bettor lays a sawbuck on Team B the consensus means little.

**tbill11** · 09-30-09, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by Dana4U

Here is the way I understand it (from LT Profits):

RLM occurs when the line moves in the opposite direction of the side that has the higher percentage of bets.

That was not the case here since Hawaii was the higher percentage team and the line moved in the same direction as where the money goes. Hawaii opened at -4, gets 58% of the bets and line moves to -6. The move is expected and you should do nothing. This is not RLM.

Well that is moving to the opposite side, that's the tricky part about RLM when looking at dogs. It's obvious with favorites, but if Hawaii has the money on their side, they should be coming less of a dog. In this scenario, they aren't. That's RLM.

**Dana4U** · 09-30-09, 08:10 PM

Tbill11 - I disagree. In an ideal situation, the sportsbooks would like complete even distribution on the bets. Meaning 50% on one side and 50% on the other. They would then have the perfect scenario of just skimming off the juice of the bet. Since Hawaii had the majority of the betting action at -4, the next step would be to get people to move over to Louisiana Tech by moving the line to -5 or -6 for Hawaii. That would hopefully begin to lower the amount of money on Hawaii. The only way you can get people from the Hawaii side (which is favored) to the Louisiana Tech side is to give LTech more points, which this is doing. This is not RLM.

RLM would occur if the majority stays on the Hawaii side when the line moves from -4 to -2. This is the opposite of what you would expect to happen.

**MJFtheGenius** · 09-30-09, 08:31 PM

Originally posted by Dana4U

Tbill11 - I disagree. In an ideal situation, the sportsbooks would like complete even distribution on the bets. Meaning 50% on one side and 50% on the other. They would then have the perfect scenario of just skimming off the juice of the bet. Since Hawaii had the majority of the betting action at -4, the next step would be to get people to move over to Louisiana Tech by moving the line to -5 or -6 for Hawaii. That would hopefully begin to lower the amount of money on Hawaii. The only way you can get people from the Hawaii side (which is favored) to the Louisiana Tech side is to give LTech more points, which this is doing. This is not RLM.

RLM would occur if the majority stays on the Hawaii side when the line moves from -4 to -2. This is the opposite of what you would expect to happen.

just stop

**Cougar Bait** · 09-30-09, 08:34 PM

FYI Hawaii opened at +4 not -4 and went to +6 not -6

That probably matters.

**MJFtheGenius** · 09-30-09, 08:36 PM

If 60% are on Hawaii at +4 how would giving them 2 more points at +6 get more money on La tech????

LOL

**poker_dummy101** · 09-30-09, 08:36 PM

Just stop

**MJFtheGenius** · 09-30-09, 08:37 PM

Originally posted by Cougar Bait

FYI Hawaii opened at +4 not -4 and went to +6 not -6

That probably matters.

Nice ivestigating Cougar...

I think you are right...

This clown does not even know the line on the game

get a clue guy

**poker_dummy101** · 09-30-09, 08:39 PM

its 1 thing to be wrong. its another to explain how wrong you are

**MJFtheGenius** · 09-30-09, 08:41 PM

Originally posted by poker_dummy101

its 1 thing to be wrong. its another to explain how wrong you are

Spot on Poker

This Dana guy is a class A Jackass

**Dana4U** · 09-30-09, 09:05 PM

CougarBait:

The line opened for Hawaii at +4 then moved to +6 even though they had the majority of the bets. Obversely, L Tech would have gone from -4 to -6 with the minority of bets. I don't think RLM applies to the side with the minority of bets. LT Profits could answer this question very quickly for you since he is one of the RLM founding father's.

I apologize for all of the confusion. I mistakingly thought Hawaii opened at -4, not +4.

**billmunny** · 09-30-09, 09:16 PM

Originally posted by Dana4U

I was simply making an example .... I know the line didn't open at +4. Since the majority of you are too stupid to understand the whole RLM concept, I guess I will need to explain the whole thing. If you still don't get it; just convince yourself that you do and continue playing it.

I didn't make this up ... it comes directly from LT Profits on this site. So if you think you are smarter than him, then feel free to drop him a line and prove yourself stupid to him as well.

1 - The most common (bet) is that the line moves in the same direction as where the money goes. FOR EXAMPLE, Hawaii opens at -4, gets 75% of all the bets and line moves to -6. In this case, since the move is expected, you should do nothing.

2 - There is heavy action on one side yet the line does not move. In this case, bet the team that has the lower percentage of bets. FOR EXAMPLE, if Hawaii opens at -4 and stays at -4, if 75% of bets are on Hawaii, bet the L Tech. If 75% of the bets are on L Tech, bet Hawaii.

3 - The Holy Grail for Smart Money followers is RLM (reverse line movement). This is when the line moves in the OPPOSITE direction of the side that has the higher percentage of bets. FOR EXAMPLE, if Hawaii opens at -4, 65% of the bets are on Hawaii and yet they drop to -2, then L Tech is a strong play.

Hope all you stupid f**ks can follow this (MJF). If not - have fun thinking you understand when you really don't!

P.S. Really I only think MJF is a stupid f**k. Poker is borderline ... but I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

So, have you figured out yet how Hawaii moving from +4 to +6 in this situation is, in fact, RLM?

**MJFtheGenius** · 09-30-09, 09:22 PM

Hawaii is not favored in this game...

La tech opened at -4 and the line increased to -6

even though majority of the public was on Hawaii...

get a clue guy

**MJFtheGenius** · 09-30-09, 09:24 PM

09/30/2009
08:00 PM 101 - Hawaii

102 - Louisiana Tech
32826 +4 -105
-4 -105 +6 -110
-6 100

**Dana4U** · 09-30-09, 09:31 PM

I again apologize to everyone in this thread. I mistakingly thought Hawaii opened at -4. In retrospect, I was the stupid f**k in this case! Happens from time to time!