Pags' Plays 10/4

**wal66** · 09-29-09, 07:36 AM

Originally posted by puggie

Pags, thanks for your work...been watching you for 2 years quietly and it's disturbing to see these jackasses comment on your hard work. Don't pay attention to these foos...they is cocksuckas! I've made some bank with you the last 2 years!

hmmmmmmmmmm

**blackbeSSt** · 09-29-09, 07:55 AM

pags do you have an opinion on people asking you about your opinion where more times than not you say you have no opinion about the opinionated games? just sayin!

**Smails Kid** · 09-29-09, 09:01 AM

Pags --- good Tuesday to you, sir ... enjoyed the games last weekend and fared much better using your insight (gotta stay away from playing 2nd half lines, though

) ... like your plays thus far in Week 4 and will be with you on UCLA, SMU, Vandy and Mich State for sure ... as always, enjoy your week and best of luck this weekend

**Dana4U** · 09-29-09, 09:27 AM

Interesting Picks

Pags ... some interesting picks this week. MSU is a hard pill for me to swallow. Living in the metro Detroit area mixed amongst UofM and MSU fans, the majority of MSU fans are conceding this game already. Granted UofM defense is poor, but MSU offense is just as poor. MSU is struggling to get points this year. I see the Wolverines winning this one by a touchdown. But no confident enough to play it, so GL to you with the pick this week.

Liking Miami on the rebound this week after the beat down last week. Vandy is a good choice as well. Ole Miss is my opinion is way overrated. Although they might be on the rebound play as well.

What's your thoughts on the Auburn game? Surprised at low spread against a stuggling TN team? Also, I know Cincinnati will win this weekend. But do they take it easy on their neighbor MAC team Miami or will they run up the points? I'm thinking they will play nice and win but not cover.

**bigcat1** · 09-29-09, 10:02 AM

i check your picks every week, somtimes i like (most the time) i feel like i know you lol as much as i have kept up with ya...just kinda wandering why you taken vandy +10...i feel really strong for ole miss, kinda of a revenge game from last year, their failure last week against south carolina, (which i picked) vandy won me money against rice last week, but they played with vandy the first half...PAGS I AM SURE YOUR KNOWLEDGE IS WAY GREATER THAN MINE, i truly enjoy your write ups. i am just a dumb red neck hillbilly from kentucky...so enlighten me..BOL

**SoonerBS** · 09-29-09, 10:21 AM

Originally posted by bigcat1

i check your picks every week, somtimes i like (most the time) i feel like i know you lol as much as i have kept up with ya...just kinda wandering why you taken vandy +10...i feel really strong for ole miss, kinda of a revenge game from last year, their failure last week against south carolina, (which i picked) vandy won me money against rice last week, but they played with vandy the first half...PAGS I AM SURE YOUR KNOWLEDGE IS WAY GREATER THAN MINE, i truly enjoy your write ups. i am just a dumb red neck hillbilly from kentucky...so enlighten me..BOL

Big Cat, pags will answer this question for himself, but I'd like to give you my reason for staying away from this play this week. Yes, the line makes Mississippi look very appealing here, but you have to remember the past in order see the big picture on this game. The past has showed us that whenever a team gets a great deal of preseason and interseason hype about them being National Title contenders, and then they lose their first game, sometimes they have a really severe letdown that causes them to lose their next game. Take East Carolina as an example last season.

Plus, "lookahead" spots have been killers on teams this season so far and Mississippi has Alabama on deck. It's just not a good spot to be playing Mississippi right now.

**FreeFall** · 09-29-09, 11:48 AM

Nice Grab on CAL +6 as thats only going lower especially after this;

USC's Johnson in surgery after weights mishap

http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4512778

USC running back Stafon Johnson injured his throat in a weight lifting accident Monday and required emergency surgery.

**MSUSpartan32** · 09-29-09, 11:49 AM

MSU offense has scored 27, 30, and 30 points the last 3 weeks. Offense is not the problem. They will move the ball up and down the field on MIchigan. The issue is defense.

**GoSooners** · 09-29-09, 11:57 AM

Pags...Your card is shaping up nicely. I have a feeling that this is going to be a very good week for you. I'm going to try and call tomorrow. I'm still studying some numbers on these games. And will be offering my opinions then...Good luck buddy.

**birdman779** · 09-29-09, 02:28 PM

hoping u sweep the board this week

**Dana4U** · 09-29-09, 03:12 PM

You Playing State this Week?

Originally posted by MSUSpartan32

MSU offense has scored 27, 30, and 30 points the last 3 weeks. Offense is not the problem. They will move the ball up and down the field on MIchigan. The issue is defense.

Point taken. It appears that the offense cannot close the deal to get the victory. But by the same token, the D cannot stop the other team from closing the deal. Simply stated ... winning teams find a way to win and it doesn't appear that MSU can do that this year.

Being a Sparty, you gonna play this game this weekend?

**iwantcougars** · 09-29-09, 03:55 PM

i'm going to stay away from spartans and wolverines

**icemantbi** · 09-29-09, 04:03 PM

Pags, loving Cal, UCLA and Michigan St.! Glad to see you on them also.

**SexyMit** · 09-29-09, 05:35 PM

Pags, Mich St, Ucla and Cal

I'm liking Oklahoma however in the Miami game, and I think those were the only 4 that we had alike! GL with the rest of your plays!

**Joe_Shabadoo** · 09-29-09, 05:49 PM

I feel Cousins will go off in this game if Dantonio can refrain from swapping QBs.

Even though Michigan is vastly improved from last year, in their previous meeting MSU showed that it could handle itself well defensively in space and be somewhat disciplined with the many checks that they'll have to make again this weekend (as opposed to their troubles with stopping traditional offensive attacks, and, namely: Garrett Graham).

--- MSU big.....

**pags11** · 09-29-09, 07:55 PM

darkenergy,

at 7.5 I'd lean to B.C., at 3.5 I'd lean to FSU...no opinion at the current line...

blackbeSSt,

funny stuff...

Smails Kid,

appreciate your post...glad will be on some together and yeah I have never really played second half lines before so I'm not sure I'd fair well either...

Dana4U,

thanks for your thoughts...very slight slight lean to Auburn...wouldn't touch the Cincinnati game...

**pags11** · 09-29-09, 08:09 PM

bigcat1,

soonerbs took care of you...I'll share with you some more thoughts on Thursday as well...

SoonerBS.

appreciate you picking me up sir..

FreeFall,

thanks...yeah it's an unfortunate situation with Johnson getting injured the way he did...

MSUSpartan32,

you make a good point...with Forcier's shoulder being hurt I think that may make hte Michigan offense a little easier to defend...

GoSooners,

as you are well aware I think you are one of the best cappers on the net...your opinion means a lot to me...looking forward to talking to you this week...

birdman779,

**pags11** · 09-29-09, 08:17 PM

iwantcougars,

understandable...

icemantbi,

I respect your opinion, that makes me feel better to hear you are on those plays...GL

sexmit,

**SlickRick24** · 09-29-09, 08:38 PM

pags,

I am new to the forum, and I've been following you so far this season and you really know your stuff. Can you tell that I'm also lovin UCLA this weekend? The personnel on D is capable of shutting down Gerhart and limiting his big runs. Containing Gerhart and not letting Owusu go off on special teams will be the key for the Bruins.

I also wanted to get your thoughts on:
Central Michigan -8
Houston -16

BOL to you pags. lovin the weekly reports!

**SlickRick24** · 09-29-09, 08:38 PM

pags,

I am new to the forum, and I've been following you so far this season and you really know your stuff. Can you tell that I'm also lovin UCLA this weekend? The personnel on D is capable of shutting down Gerhart and limiting his big runs. Containing Gerhart and not letting Owusu go off on special teams will be the key for the Bruins.

I also wanted to get your thoughts on:
Central Michigan -8
Houston -16

BOL to you pags. lovin the weekly reports!

**pags11** · 09-29-09, 09:14 PM

SlickRick24,

thanks for posting and for the recognition...agree with your thoughts on UCLA's defense, hopefully they can contain this Stanford kickoff returner though...

I don't play the MAC so I don't have an opinion on CMU, although I like the QB...with Houston they are coming off two big wins...no interest in either side of the Houston vs. UTEP game (a lot of chalk to lay with Houston in a let down situatoin and UTEP is flat-out terrible)...GL

**Cougar Bait** · 09-29-09, 09:27 PM

Navy -3.5 or Auburn +2? Or...just play SMU cause they are getting 28 and will likely score at least once?

**spongerat** · 09-29-09, 09:28 PM

do you bet MAC at all? toledo is only -4 at ball state who is absolutely terrible, any idea why

**Cougar Bait** · 09-29-09, 09:31 PM

That line really does make no sense. It's on my card, but SBR had it originating at 7. Wonder if that is right.

**pags11** · 09-30-09, 12:00 AM

Cougar Bait,

I can't recommend a play on Navy or Auburn...as far as TCU goes, there's a little more to the play than that but I'm sure you see things similiarly as me in that game...

spongerat,

no I don't play the MAC at all...

**puggie** · 09-30-09, 12:11 AM

Respect the grammar!

**mtgrizzly** · 09-30-09, 12:20 AM

AWhitejackson---You just earned a ton o' respect from me.....That's exactly how every person on this forum should think. GL-

**obadub** · 09-30-09, 12:57 AM

pags -

I was thinking about a 3 line parlay -

Alabama -17 @ UK
USF -6.5 @ Syracuse
UPS -7 @ Illinois

I saw what you said about UPS not playing to their potential but Illinois is just looking horrible right now.

What do you think?

**pags11** · 09-30-09, 01:15 AM

puggie,

I do what I can man...

obadub,

first off I don't recommend parlays, at all...I can't say that I'm high on any of those sides although I don't like playing against Alabama...

**myers59** · 09-30-09, 01:16 AM

Originally posted by pags11

Richkas,

The last I heard your picks were so shitty that you were renting a cardboard box downtown and giving blood once a day just to stay afloat...glad to see that middle school education gets you as far as you've gotten...go ahead and fade my picks you little pussy, we will see who is laughing at the end of the year...I ever tell you that your picks remind me of a monkey ****ing a football?

Now that is funny! Thanks for the plays pags.

**pags11** · 09-30-09, 01:20 AM

myers59,

**seaborneq** · 09-30-09, 07:20 AM

Be aware Pags. I like your first 5 plays a lot. I made those same picks in my Greek Challenge entry. Those picks just seem too easy.

**xyzky** · 09-30-09, 09:56 AM

Good looking card

**cakasmaloy** · 09-30-09, 10:27 AM

PAGS, why dont you play the MAC?

**ElCapitan** · 09-30-09, 10:33 AM

Pags, your thoughts on still playing a couple of these with the line movements?

Cal - at 5 or 4.5
UCLA - at 5
MSU - at -2

I realize that the first two aren't very substantial moves but would like to hear your thoughts on how low you'd play them. If the MSU line gets to -3, I'd almost be inclined to take Michigan.