I think the two salient questions in this game are "can Bama's pass rush disrupt the rhythm of a slow-footed Ryan Mallett?", and the second is, "can Arkansas avoid falling behind big, early?" If both of those questions favor the Razorbacks, then they should cover, and have a chance to win outright. If the answer to those two questions favor Bama, then it'll be a long day for Arkansas, and Arkansas bettors.
Bama clearly has a very physical and stout defense. The question is can they generate a sufficient pass rush to regularly effect Mallet? I answer that question in the affirmative for three reasons.
The first is that Arkansas does not have a dink and dunk type of passing attack. They like to throw the ball down field, and that is understandable given they have a QB with probably the strongest arm in the country. But their vertical passing style should provide Bama's front 7 ample opportunities to disrupt Mallett.
Second, because Bama is so effective at stuffing the run, they will be able to dedicate a lot of people to rushing the passer.
Lastly, Mallett is not very mobile, so the defensive ends won't be overly concerned with containment.
Bama's best pass rusher is Marcell Dareus. Dareus had his name called frequently on national tv in the VT game, and finished with 2 sacks. Nobody has been able to block this guy all season, and I seriously doubt Arky will fare much better. Accordingly, I think Dareus will have a huge multiple-sack game, and LB Donte Hightower may as well. Expect at east 5 sacks from Bama's front 7.
Bama will win this game because Arky's defense will simply get steam-rolled. As I said in my preseason writeup, Bama has one of the best offensive teams in the nation, and will score pretty much at will on the Razorbacks' soft defense. I think they will score almost everytime they have the ball, and will finish with 45-55 points. I expect a final score of something like 45-17 or 45-24 - something in that range.
I really hate the 17.5-point line here, but I do think Bama will win this by 3 TDs plus, but the play I really, like here is OVER 58. I think this game will eclipse that mark.
Thus, my recommendation is to avoid the temptation to jump on the points, and play OVER the total!!!
Bama clearly has a very physical and stout defense. The question is can they generate a sufficient pass rush to regularly effect Mallet? I answer that question in the affirmative for three reasons.
The first is that Arkansas does not have a dink and dunk type of passing attack. They like to throw the ball down field, and that is understandable given they have a QB with probably the strongest arm in the country. But their vertical passing style should provide Bama's front 7 ample opportunities to disrupt Mallett.
Second, because Bama is so effective at stuffing the run, they will be able to dedicate a lot of people to rushing the passer.
Lastly, Mallett is not very mobile, so the defensive ends won't be overly concerned with containment.
Bama's best pass rusher is Marcell Dareus. Dareus had his name called frequently on national tv in the VT game, and finished with 2 sacks. Nobody has been able to block this guy all season, and I seriously doubt Arky will fare much better. Accordingly, I think Dareus will have a huge multiple-sack game, and LB Donte Hightower may as well. Expect at east 5 sacks from Bama's front 7.
Bama will win this game because Arky's defense will simply get steam-rolled. As I said in my preseason writeup, Bama has one of the best offensive teams in the nation, and will score pretty much at will on the Razorbacks' soft defense. I think they will score almost everytime they have the ball, and will finish with 45-55 points. I expect a final score of something like 45-17 or 45-24 - something in that range.
I really hate the 17.5-point line here, but I do think Bama will win this by 3 TDs plus, but the play I really, like here is OVER 58. I think this game will eclipse that mark.
Thus, my recommendation is to avoid the temptation to jump on the points, and play OVER the total!!!
