CFB Plays – Week 14 (Championship Week)

RavensFan2k3 · 11-30-18, 02:37 PM

No ML?

LT Profits · 11-30-18, 02:44 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

No ML?

I think getting more than FG is better value

LT Profits · 11-30-18, 03:27 PM

1 CFB Addition Friday

FRIDAY, 11/30
Northern Illinois +3.5 -110 (Heritage)
Utah +4.5 -105 (Heritage)

stackz125 · 11-30-18, 05:59 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

FRIDAY, 11/30
Northern Illinois +3.5 -110 (Heritage)
Utah +4.5 -105 (Heritage)

What stopped you from playing the +5.5?

LT Profits · 11-30-18, 06:40 PM

Originally posted by stackz125

What stopped you from playing the +5.5?

+4.5 to +5.5 is the "dead zone" so not much difference. I bet the +4.5 when Pinny and Bookmaker went to +4, as model only has Wash -2.74

I was intending to pass because I don't like extreme variance, but the move down from +5.5 toward my number while still being +EV (based on model) swayed me to pull the trigger.

Mike Huntertz · 11-30-18, 06:50 PM

Uh Oh....I'm on the other side in both.
Bet too soon.

eeezzzz · 11-30-18, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

+4.5 to +5.5 is the "dead zone" so not much difference. I bet the +4.5 when Pinny and Bookmaker went to +4, as model only has Wash -2.74

I was intending to pass because I don't like extreme variance, but the move down from +5.5 toward my number while still being +EV (based on model) swayed me to pull the trigger.

Besides the history of NIU dominating the MAC what angles do you really see here? Buffalo looks superior to me even despite the blow out loss to Ohio a few weeks ago which was on a Wednesday. I feel like Buffalo -3 is a penetrating gift.

jtoler · 11-30-18, 07:25 PM

the mac "poy" sucks glad I knew and took niu, niu just needs to still score some pts

LT Profits · 11-30-18, 07:36 PM

Originally posted by eeezzzz

Besides the history of NIU dominating the MAC what angles do you really see here? Buffalo looks superior to me even despite the blow out loss to Ohio a few weeks ago which was on a Wednesday. I feel like Buffalo -3 is a penetrating gift.

99% of the time, answer is "because model says so". lol

I get Buff -1.22

jtoler · 11-30-18, 10:30 PM

hit some +300 niu ml and +18.5 also good job to all who backed the huskies.

Xstream · 11-30-18, 10:34 PM

Gl lt!

LT Profits · 12-01-18, 11:51 AM

1 CFB Play Saturday

SATURDAY, 12/1
Pittsburgh / Clemson UNDER 53 -105 (5 Dimes)

YTD: 81-72-1, +6.22

LT Profits · 12-01-18, 03:41 PM

1 CFB Addition Saturday

SATURDAY, 12/1
Fresno State +2 -105 (Heritage)
Pittsburgh / Clemson UNDER 53 -105 (5 Dimes)

Pick'nParlays · 12-01-18, 08:14 PM

tailing you on this Fresno St game bol

seaborneq · 12-01-18, 08:32 PM

I'm on Fresno too. Over Clemson/Pittsburgh. Clemson is averaging 50+ a game the past 6 games by themselves