Before we get too carried away with all the upsets that have occurred last Saturday, let us remember one thing. The Top Three teams in the polls remained the same, and probably will until the Playoffs start. Let's look at who should be locked in and who may end up in the 4th spot.
Alabama: Remember the Alabama Rule. If they have one or less losses, they automatically go into the Playoff. This is what ESPN wants, and what ESPN wants, ESPN gets. I do not see them losing a game until the Playoffs, but if they do, I think it is more likely to happen in a major letdown situation, like Miss. State, instead of big game situation, like LSU.
Clemson: Who is going to defeat them? The only team with an outside chance, and we are talking long shot here, is Boston College in Chestnut Hill. The ACC Atlantic is pathetically weak, with Virginia the only team with 2 losses.
Notre Dame: It would be a very difficult task for the Irish to get into the Playoffs with a loss because they do not have a CC game, and ESPN is not particularly pleased about them being an independent. The easiest way for the Irish to get into the Playoffs is to go undefeated, and that is what they will do this season. Who do they have left to play? Northwestern, who now leads the Big 10 West, but has 3 losses. Syracuse in Yankee Staduim, and an under-achieving USC team in L.A. They also get Florida State at home. All of these are easily winnable for a team who knows that they must win them all to be in the Playoffs.
Now we get to #4. All of these teams cannot afford to lose another game.The contestants are: The winner of the Michigan-Ohio State. Oklahoma or West Virginia if either team wins out including the CC game. Washington State, if they win out including their CC game. Georgia, Kentucky and LSU. All three of these teams would have to win out. The loser of the Georgia-Kentucky game on Saturday is out and the winner or LSU would have to defeat Alabama.
The way I see it, the SEC threesome should be down to one survivor after this weekend, unless LSU defeats Alabama, and as a 14 point dog, I can't see LSU lasting more than a quarter against the Tide. That survivor (probably Georgia) then must run the table and defeat Alabama in the CC game. If that happens, they are in. Very doubtful at best. Both Michigan and Ohio State have one other decent opponent left to play. State goes to Michigan State, and Michigan hosts Penn State. If they survive those games, then the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game will still have to get past someone from the West, more than likely Iowa. Not much of a problem there. OU has been destroying everyone in sight after the 3 point loss to Texas and there is no real reason to think that anyone is going to defeat them. They should face the winner of Saturday's West Virginia-Texas game in the CC game. Washington State may have the easiest road, playing three out of their last 4 games at home and probably playing Utah, a team that they have already defeated, in the CC games. In Pac 12 CC games between teams that have previously played each other, the winner of game one has always won game 2. My guess is that if push comes to shove and there is more than one team with just one loss, Oklahoma followed by the Michigan-Ohio State winner, followed by Washington State would be the order that the #4 team is chosen, unless someone like Georgia defeats Alabama in their CC game.
Alabama: Remember the Alabama Rule. If they have one or less losses, they automatically go into the Playoff. This is what ESPN wants, and what ESPN wants, ESPN gets. I do not see them losing a game until the Playoffs, but if they do, I think it is more likely to happen in a major letdown situation, like Miss. State, instead of big game situation, like LSU.
Clemson: Who is going to defeat them? The only team with an outside chance, and we are talking long shot here, is Boston College in Chestnut Hill. The ACC Atlantic is pathetically weak, with Virginia the only team with 2 losses.
Notre Dame: It would be a very difficult task for the Irish to get into the Playoffs with a loss because they do not have a CC game, and ESPN is not particularly pleased about them being an independent. The easiest way for the Irish to get into the Playoffs is to go undefeated, and that is what they will do this season. Who do they have left to play? Northwestern, who now leads the Big 10 West, but has 3 losses. Syracuse in Yankee Staduim, and an under-achieving USC team in L.A. They also get Florida State at home. All of these are easily winnable for a team who knows that they must win them all to be in the Playoffs.
Now we get to #4. All of these teams cannot afford to lose another game.The contestants are: The winner of the Michigan-Ohio State. Oklahoma or West Virginia if either team wins out including the CC game. Washington State, if they win out including their CC game. Georgia, Kentucky and LSU. All three of these teams would have to win out. The loser of the Georgia-Kentucky game on Saturday is out and the winner or LSU would have to defeat Alabama.
The way I see it, the SEC threesome should be down to one survivor after this weekend, unless LSU defeats Alabama, and as a 14 point dog, I can't see LSU lasting more than a quarter against the Tide. That survivor (probably Georgia) then must run the table and defeat Alabama in the CC game. If that happens, they are in. Very doubtful at best. Both Michigan and Ohio State have one other decent opponent left to play. State goes to Michigan State, and Michigan hosts Penn State. If they survive those games, then the winner of the Michigan-Ohio State game will still have to get past someone from the West, more than likely Iowa. Not much of a problem there. OU has been destroying everyone in sight after the 3 point loss to Texas and there is no real reason to think that anyone is going to defeat them. They should face the winner of Saturday's West Virginia-Texas game in the CC game. Washington State may have the easiest road, playing three out of their last 4 games at home and probably playing Utah, a team that they have already defeated, in the CC games. In Pac 12 CC games between teams that have previously played each other, the winner of game one has always won game 2. My guess is that if push comes to shove and there is more than one team with just one loss, Oklahoma followed by the Michigan-Ohio State winner, followed by Washington State would be the order that the #4 team is chosen, unless someone like Georgia defeats Alabama in their CC game.
