NCAAF Week 7 with some observations

[L8night]

Last Week: 1-2 -60
YTD: 3-3 -15

Welcome SBR members and lurkers,

1-2 last weekend, I was beaten on the Alabama-35 play with 13 seconds to go, bad beat "nah", Arkansas squandered a lot of scoring opportunities and the Alabama defense looked very puzzled, Bama took a 41 point lead with under 2 minutes left, that is when I then turned the game off, not from confidence that I was going to cover, but because I had a feeling that Arkansas will come back and is going to wreck this and they did with 13 seconds left, has this ever happened to you?

Well on to this week,

Duke +2 1/2 vs Georgia Tech,
Duke can actually defend the triple option, I see Duke nickel and diming there way down the field on this Georgia Tech defense(there not very good), I have Duke winning 31-17, I have not played this yet, waiting to see if I can get a better line, injury and weather report.

I'm still looking over the spreds and totals

Any questions or comments, just leave them here and I'll get back to you.

[BigdaddyQH]

Pass. Duke is too flakey to wager on. They were 4-0 until an average Va. Tech team crushed them at home. They go on the road now and face a Tech team that has scored 129 points in their last 2 games and 40 in the two games previous to that. Wagering on two teams this flakey is just begging to lose money.

[L8night]

hey bigdaddy,

I have to disagree, when Virginia Tech beat Duke, it was Jones(QB) first game back after breaking his clavicle in the Northwestern game and he looked rusty, the Tech D played well, had Duke confused, I also saw Duke D for the first time look pretty bad.

So with that said, my first play of the week

Duke +3 vs Georgia Tech, Duke comes in off the above said VT loss, but they are also off a bye, so they have had 2 weeks to prepare and they know how to defend the triple option, on offense I expect them to slow the game down,with the rush and short passes, the total on the game has dropped 2 points from it's opening of 55 and it looks like the books see it the same way I do, the Tech D has not shown me much and I look for Duke to take advantage.

I don't like anything for Thursday, but Friday is different

USF @ Tulsa ,when I saw the total of 61 1/2, I said how do these 2 teams not combine for at least 70, well, the weather forcast calls for rain, game is on my radar, but not playing it yet.

Air Force @ San Diego St, line is 10 1/2, I watched this SD St team beat Boise St, in Boise on the blue turf, this past weekend, the Aztec did it with the backup QB Ryan Agnew, the reason I am mentioning this is, he is a good game manager and he didn't make bad decisions, the spred is 10 1/2, and I find it odd as SD St is 4-0, since Agnew took over, but they haven't covered 10 in any of their D-1 wins, I doubt I will play this game at 10, but I will be watching San Diego St for the rest of the season.

I'm still looking at Saturday and nothing is jumping off the page (strange), if you have any questions or comments just ask

[2daBank]

Duke is basically a auto play when facing the option imo, very good history of defending this offense well under this coach. I will say one concern is this could very well be the best version of the option they have seen, but on the other side I don’t see tech defense putting up much resistance. I’m with ya on duke.

[L8night]

Duke is basically a auto play when facing the option imo, very good history of defending this offense well under this coach. I will say one concern is this could very well be the best version of the option they have seen, but on the other side I don’t see tech defense putting up much resistance. I’m with ya on duke.

Thanks 2daBank,

noticed the line drop today, GL this weekend

[navyblue81]

Pass. Duke is too flakey to wager on. They were 4-0 until an average Va. Tech team crushed them at home. They go on the road now and face a Tech team that has scored 129 points in their last 2 games and 40 in the two games previous to that. Wagering on two teams this flakey is just begging to lose money.

Donald Jones wasn’t healthy vs VT. Big difference. He’s healthy now.

[L8night]

after last nights 2 snooze fests, no plays for me on Friday night, I see a lot of totals starting to drop on games tomorrow, 2 games I'm looking at, these are leans now,

Troy @ Liberty under 64, Troy lost their starting QB and Liberty has done a lot of travel the last 2 weeks so they maybe a little gassed, I believe Troy will run the ball to eat up clock and the defense should be able to keep the Flames in check.

UCF - 4 1/2 @ Memphis, Memphis just doesn't pass the eye test for me, UCF is a step up in class and IMO this could get out of hand.

Well, I will be back to finalize my card tomorrow morning, so if any questions or comments leave them

[L8night]

Donald Jones wasn’t healthy vs VT. Big difference. He’s healthy now.

Hey navyblue81,

His name is Daniel Jones and the VT game was his first game back (out 2 games, broken clavicle,ouch) and he was rusty, the 2 weeks off should help, don't want to piss you off, but...

GO ARMY beat NAVY,
Sorry, I couldn't resist, GL brother

[L8night]

Ok finals for today,

Duke +3 vs Ga Tech

UCF-5 vs Memphis

GL and have fun