$2500 on Florida State +2.5 ~~BEST Bet~~ College Football Saturday 10/8

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  • KickShootThrow
    SBR MVP
    • 05-16-16
    • 1656

    #1
    $2500 on Florida State +2.5 ~~BEST Bet~~ College Football Saturday 10/8
    Been slightly under break even this week, down a few hundred. Haven't really gotten in my groove yet with picks so tail/fade at caution. If you've been checking out my threads, you know that I usually only bet 1 unit ($500) or so per game.

    I've already locked in 5 units on Florida State +2.5 and feeling very optimistic about it.

    I've seen a few threads about the FSU starting to lose it and 'now's a great time to start fading them' but this is a bounce-back game within a rivalry game. Some may say that FSU has been exposed this season. It's been seven years since Miami has last won in this series against The U. FSU typically dominates time of possession and that will be a key factor this game. The Seminoles are more used to dealing with pressure in their games, and much more prepared for a shootout which this game pans out to on paper.

    While the area is dealing with other issues regarding Matthew, it shouldn't be a big factor on this field. While no one is truly sure how good Miami really is, because of their soft schedule so far, they've shown lots of hustle and fight. But some how, some way, the Noles extend the streak to 7 in this series.




  • Electrons
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 06-23-16
    • 701

    #2
    Why not buy the ML?

    If you're jumping up to 5 units---you can't be relying on 2 and/hook, so why no ML?
    Comment
    • KickShootThrow
      SBR MVP
      • 05-16-16
      • 1656

      #3
      Originally posted by Electrons
      Why not buy the ML?

      If you're jumping up to 5 units---you can't be relying on 2 and/hook, so why no ML?
      If you were to buy the hook off of every game you bet that was at like 9.5, 6.5, 2.5, 10.5, 7.5, etc..., it's a losing proposition in the long term.

      I understand that the majority of people think 3 is such a crucial number in football, but it's much less likely in college compared to the NFL. Lots of games end up as a one or two point differential. As for this game, I'm unwilling to lay (-125) just to have an extra half point. Though I do believe FSU will win straight up, I feel much more at ease with +2.5.
      Comment
      • KickShootThrow
        SBR MVP
        • 05-16-16
        • 1656

        #4
        Also I read your post on the other thread about me not returning to discussion after my pick loses, I'll try not to do that anymore.

        But surely you can understand, I'm either in a bad mood cause my pick lost and I lost $500, or I'm constantly getting bashed as a fake girl (by you).
        Comment
        • Aye J Mac
          SBR Hall of Famer
          • 07-13-12
          • 5424

          #5
          KTs just keep what u doing girl! But I think a lot of public playing flo state. But gl on the play. Need to study up on this game still
          Comment
          • PhattDaddy204
            SBR MVP
            • 09-15-16
            • 2979

            #6
            FSU seems like play.

            BOL
            Comment
            • Aye J Mac
              SBR Hall of Famer
              • 07-13-12
              • 5424

              #7
              Man this game is hard
              Comment
              • RavensFan2k3
                SBR Posting Legend
                • 08-18-12
                • 17378

                #8
                Originally posted by Aye J Mac
                Man this game is hard
                I'm a Cane fan(alumni), so I naturally want Miami to win, but my money is telling me FSU
                Comment
                • KickShootThrow
                  SBR MVP
                  • 05-16-16
                  • 1656

                  #9
                  Game time, lets go.
                  Comment
                  • Da Phoenix
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 04-20-14
                    • 489

                    #10
                    Good luck
                    Comment
                    • RavensFan2k3
                      SBR Posting Legend
                      • 08-18-12
                      • 17378

                      #11
                      This was probably the hardest thing to do. I bet FSU ML
                      Comment
                      • joeygats
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 10-24-07
                        • 782

                        #12
                        Originally posted by KickShootThrow
                        Game time, lets go.
                        Gl i got 500 on Florida state 1st half ML
                        Comment
                        • p4$$ion
                          SBR Sharp
                          • 07-06-16
                          • 340

                          #13
                          y'all might be able to double down on your plays with FSU +7.5 shortly
                          Comment
                          • BigOrange
                            SBR Hall of Famer
                            • 08-13-09
                            • 6745

                            #14
                            ML is much more EV than taking 1 to 2.5 points in the long run.
                            Comment
                            • Electrons
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 06-23-16
                              • 701

                              #15
                              Originally posted by BigOrange
                              ML is much more EV than taking 1 to 2.5 points in the long run.
                              Exactly!

                              Here is a # for KickShoot----5 years worth of data points....NCAAF game with lines closing 0-2.5, only 2.7% actually fell within that number!!!!!

                              The value was in the ML wager.

                              I'm not debating the side---although I see no value in Florida State at all---I'm arguing where the BEST VALUE is.

                              It was on the ML.
                              Comment
                              • RavensFan2k3
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 08-18-12
                                • 17378

                                #16
                                Now the QB is out. Just great. I swear I'm gonna hate myself if I bet against my Canes and they win
                                Comment
                                • Electrons
                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                  • 06-23-16
                                  • 701

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                  Now the QB is out. Just great. I swear I'm gonna hate myself if I bet against my Canes and they win
                                  Why would you bet against your own team?

                                  You either roll WITH them, or pass.
                                  Comment
                                  • KickShootThrow
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 05-16-16
                                    • 1656

                                    #18
                                    Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                    Now the QB is out. Just great. I swear I'm gonna hate myself if I bet against my Canes and they win
                                    Don't worry, our backup QB is not bad. Francois was not the real deal anyways.
                                    Comment
                                    • Electrons
                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                      • 06-23-16
                                      • 701

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by KickShootThrow
                                      Don't worry, our backup QB is not bad. Francois was not the real deal anyways.
                                      Then why was he starting?
                                      Comment
                                      • joeygats
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 10-24-07
                                        • 782

                                        #20
                                        Ugh im fkkkkkkkkkkk this was my last 500 should of took wash 1st half or Stanford ughhhh
                                        Comment
                                        • KRIT
                                          SBR Posting Legend
                                          • 01-11-14
                                          • 12878

                                          #21
                                          Lol this girl showin screen shots, 95% of sbr men can't even do it. Props to OP.
                                          Comment
                                          • RavensFan2k3
                                            SBR Posting Legend
                                            • 08-18-12
                                            • 17378

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by Electrons
                                            Why would you bet against your own team?

                                            You either roll WITH them, or pass.
                                            I know I know! I guess we'll see man
                                            Comment
                                            • RavensFan2k3
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 08-18-12
                                              • 17378

                                              #23
                                              Miami looking good
                                              Comment
                                              • RavensFan2k3
                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                • 08-18-12
                                                • 17378

                                                #24
                                                Well, game not over, but Maguire is trash for FSU. Miami D is forreal. Francois is back, but hurt. FSU has slim chance IMO
                                                Comment
                                                • ATLIEN6
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-15-16
                                                  • 1472

                                                  #25
                                                  Are you going to run from this thread when it loses again?
                                                  Comment
                                                  • JayDr3am
                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                    • 05-06-14
                                                    • 18260

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                                    Well, game not over, but Maguire is trash for FSU. Miami D is forreal. Francois is back, but hurt. FSU has slim chance IMO
                                                    these miami true freshman linebackers are monsters. wow
                                                    Comment
                                                    • RavensFan2k3
                                                      SBR Posting Legend
                                                      • 08-18-12
                                                      • 17378

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by JayDr3am
                                                      these miami true freshman linebackers are monsters. wow
                                                      Very impressive
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Aye J Mac
                                                        SBR Hall of Famer
                                                        • 07-13-12
                                                        • 5424

                                                        #28
                                                        Looks like Florida state have a chance to win now
                                                        Comment
                                                        • KickShootThrow
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 05-16-16
                                                          • 1656

                                                          #29
                                                          Momentum change.

                                                          Originally posted by ATLIEN6
                                                          Are you going to run from this thread when it loses again?
                                                          I'm still here.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • KickShootThrow
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 05-16-16
                                                            • 1656

                                                            #30
                                                            FSU steaming back and gonna take this game straight up.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • KickShootThrow
                                                              SBR MVP
                                                              • 05-16-16
                                                              • 1656

                                                              #31
                                                              COME ON FSU!!! 17-13 now
                                                              Comment
                                                              • RavensFan2k3
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 08-18-12
                                                                • 17378

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by KickShootThrow
                                                                FSU steaming back and gonna take this game straight up.
                                                                This is tough for me to watch...like I said, I have money on FSU, but am a Canes fan ugh lol
                                                                Comment
                                                                • KickShootThrow
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 05-16-16
                                                                  • 1656

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Come on, get another TD here. Put a 2 possession lead on the board.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • RavensFan2k3
                                                                    SBR Posting Legend
                                                                    • 08-18-12
                                                                    • 17378

                                                                    #34
                                                                    What a huge swing of momentum
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • KickShootThrow
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 05-16-16
                                                                      • 1656

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Begging for the momentum to stay on FSU side. I would have really preferred 7 points over the FG on that last possession.
                                                                      Comment
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