Possible RLM Advisory

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  • Night-Tripper
    SBR MVP
    • 12-14-09
    • 3205

    #1
    Possible RLM Advisory
    Lines are from BookMaker as of 1515 CDT:
    • Ohio -17/Eastern Michigan - Opened @ -18
    • Northern Illinois -15/Central Michigan - Opened @ -17.5
    • Northwestern -12/Minnesota - Opened @ -12.5
    • Cincinnati -14.5/Connecticut - Opened @ -16
    • Colorado State/Wyoming -5.5 - Opened @ -6.5
    • Massachusettes/Buffalo -19 - Opened @ -20.5
    • Oklahoma -22/Kansas - Opened @ -24
    • Georgia -6.5/Vanderbilt - Opened @ -9.5
  • gojetsgomoxies
    SBR MVP
    • 09-04-12
    • 4222

    #2
    Rlm is play or fade the red?
    Comment
    • Ballerholic
      SBR MVP
      • 01-16-13
      • 2767

      #3
      Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies
      Rlm is play or fade the red?
      You new? RLM means nothing. Seahawks went from 6.5 to 5.5 Still dominated
      Comment
      • Night-Tripper
        SBR MVP
        • 12-14-09
        • 3205

        #4
        Originally posted by Ballerholic
        You new? RLM means nothing. Seahawks went from 6.5 to 5.5 Still dominated
        Seahawks were not a RLM game.
        Comment
        • Night-Tripper
          SBR MVP
          • 12-14-09
          • 3205

          #5
          Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies
          Rlm is play or fade the red?
          Fade the red.
          Comment
          • JabooFootball
            SBR Wise Guy
            • 10-09-13
            • 758

            #6
            Wait how were the seahawks not an RLM game? Majority of public on them, line steadily decreased?
            Comment
            • Ballerholic
              SBR MVP
              • 01-16-13
              • 2767

              #7
              Originally posted by Night-Tripper
              Seahawks were not a RLM game.
              Almost this capper just lost all credibility
              Comment
              • Night-Tripper
                SBR MVP
                • 12-14-09
                • 3205

                #8
                Originally posted by JabooFootball
                Wait how were the seahawks not an RLM game? Majority of public on them, line steadily decreased?
                Just because the majority of the public is on one side with line movement going the other way doesn't equate to RLM. 51% is a majority, and I've stated numerous times that I use 70% as my filter.
                Comment
                • etothep
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-14-07
                  • 1299

                  #9
                  Originally posted by JabooFootball
                  Wait how were the seahawks not an RLM game? Majority of public on them, line steadily decreased?
                  SEA opened -4.5 most places & closed -4.5 or -5 most places
                  Comment
                  • Night-Tripper
                    SBR MVP
                    • 12-14-09
                    • 3205

                    #10
                    Originally posted by Ballerholic
                    Almost this capper just lost all credibility
                    Gee, that sucks. I sure hope I'll be able to get to sleep tonight knowing that I no longer have credibility as a handicapper.
                    Comment
                    • JabooFootball
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 10-09-13
                      • 758

                      #11
                      Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                      Just because the majority of the public is on one side with line movement going the other way doesn't equate to RLM. 51% is a majority, and I've stated numerous times that I use 70% as my filter.
                      understood. I wasnt trying to be contrary I was legitimately asking because I thought 60-65% with reverse movement was the barrier. Thanks for the input.
                      Comment
                      • Night-Tripper
                        SBR MVP
                        • 12-14-09
                        • 3205

                        #12
                        Originally posted by JabooFootball
                        understood. I wasnt trying to be contrary I was legitimately asking because I thought 60-65% with reverse movement was the barrier. Thanks for the input.
                        No problem... I knew you were making a simple inquiry. I used to use 65%, but seeing as any numbers we have access to are not going to be exact, I began to use 70% as a filter... and it's been delivering better results.
                        Comment
                        • JabooFootball
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 10-09-13
                          • 758

                          #13
                          I wonder what playing around with movement relative to percentage of point total would yield you in terms of results... (for instance in the UGA/Vandy game spread has decreased by 31%... I wonder if spread decreases by higher percentage are more or less likely to have reverse outcome)
                          Comment
                          • cane
                            SBR Sharp
                            • 09-26-13
                            • 480

                            #14
                            I like the philosophy, Fade the public when you see reverse line movement, GL with these. There's another game you might wanna check out, game # 372 Texas St opened 19 at BM and is now at 16 and Pinny opened them at 20 and is also using 16, I'm seeing 70% of the public on Texas St, so Georgia St would be the play.
                            Comment
                            • Night-Tripper
                              SBR MVP
                              • 12-14-09
                              • 3205

                              #15
                              Originally posted by cane
                              I like the philosophy, Fade the public when you see reverse line movement, GL with these. There's another game you might wanna check out, game # 372 Texas St opened 19 at BM and is now at 16 and Pinny opened them at 20 and is also using 16, I'm seeing 70% of the public on Texas St, so Georgia St would be the play.
                              My sites only indicate ~ 62% of the public on Texas State... and even if it was at 70%, the game has yet to have the minimum number of bets that I use as an additional qualifier.
                              Comment
                              • Night-Tripper
                                SBR MVP
                                • 12-14-09
                                • 3205

                                #16
                                Originally posted by Ballerholic
                                You new?
                                New to what, sports betting? Hardly. I have been legally gambling on sports for almost 40 years. Sonny, I am sure that I was gambling long before you even knew your pecker could be used for something besides pissing.

                                Got any more idiotic questions for me?
                                Comment
                                • cane
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 09-26-13
                                  • 480

                                  #17
                                  Originally posted by Night-Tripper
                                  My sites only indicate ~ 62% of the public on Texas State... and even if it was at 70%, the game has yet to have the minimum number of bets that I use as an additional qualifier.
                                  Okay, just thought I'd help out since I agree with your philosophy, Obviously I don't know the parameters you look for. I have to think betting these type of games will turn a profit over the long run, GL
                                  Comment
                                  • Ballerholic
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 01-16-13
                                    • 2767

                                    #18
                                    whats your record with this system?
                                    Comment
                                    • Ballerholic
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-16-13
                                      • 2767

                                      #19
                                      Question avoided...
                                      Comment
                                      • gojetsgomoxies
                                        SBR MVP
                                        • 09-04-12
                                        • 4222

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by Ballerholic
                                        Question avoided...
                                        LOL. go back to masturbating d-bag
                                        Comment
                                        • Night-Tripper
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 12-14-09
                                          • 3205

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by cane
                                          Okay, just thought I'd help out since I agree with your philosophy, Obviously I don't know the parameters you look for. I have to think betting these type of games will turn a profit over the long run, GL
                                          No problem... although I try to stay on top of things, there are going to be times that I may miss something... so I appreciate it when someone points out a game to me. Once I see the post, I'll check it out. If it qualifies, I'll add it. If it doesn't, I'll usually just state that it didn't meet the criterion that I use. Until a game actually kicks off, the list should be considered to be in a state of flux, as there'll probably be additions as well as deletions. For example... this week, Georgia Tech is right on the cusp of being a qualifier... but they haven't quite made it. then again, there are a couple of games on my current list that are just barely meeting my criterion, and they may come off.
                                          Comment
                                          • Night-Tripper
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 12-14-09
                                            • 3205

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by gojetsgomoxies
                                            LOL. go back to masturbating d-bag
                                            Comment
                                            • Night-Tripper
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-14-09
                                              • 3205

                                              #23
                                              Originally posted by Ballerholic
                                              whats your record with this system?
                                              Don't have a clue, because it's not a system and I have stated many times in the past that I post the games as a source of information for fellow users. It's up to the indiviudal to decide what they want to do with it. I have also stated numerous times in the past (where the fukk have you been?), that I do not automatically play a game because it is RLM. On the other hand, I will not bet into the teeth of RLM. Should I have placed a bet on a team that ends up with RLM tendencies, I won't buy it back... I'll simply let it ride.

                                              I do know that RLM was 6-1 last week and overall, it has shown a profit this year. If you want the specific numbers, you can go and look up my past posts, because you have shown yourself to be a fukking prick... and my time is too valuable to waste on you.



                                              Originally posted by Ballerholic
                                              Question avoided...
                                              No dikkhead, I don't avoid a fukking thing... but I do not stay glued to this site 24x7. However, as of this reply to you in this specific post, I am done with you.
                                              Last edited by Night-Tripper; 10-18-13, 10:33 PM.
                                              Comment
                                              • JR007
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 02-21-10
                                                • 5279

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by Ballerholic
                                                whats your record with this system?
                                                It's called an" advisory" you moron
                                                Comment
                                                • Night-Tripper
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 12-14-09
                                                  • 3205

                                                  #25
                                                  Lines are from BookMaker and were current as of 2230 CDT. As I mentioned earlier, the games will be in a state of flux until kickoff.


                                                  • Ohio -16.5/Eastern Michigan - Opened @ -18
                                                  • Northern Illinois -14.5/Central Michigan - Opened @ -17.5
                                                  • Colorado State/Wyoming -6 - Opened @ -6.5
                                                  • Syracuse/Georgia Tech -7 - Opened @ -8.5
                                                  • Massachusettes/Buffalo -19.5 - Opened @ -20.5
                                                  • Oklahoma -22/Kansas - Opened @ -24
                                                  • Georgia -6.5/Vanderbilt - Opened @ -9.5
                                                  Comment
                                                  • SEAHAWKHARRY
                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                    • 11-29-07
                                                    • 26068

                                                    #26
                                                    Thanks for info
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Night-Tripper
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 12-14-09
                                                      • 3205

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by SEAHAWKHARRY
                                                      Thanks for info
                                                      You're more than welcome...
                                                      Comment
                                                      • trendon
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 12-06-10
                                                        • 534

                                                        #28
                                                        Originally posted by Ballerholic
                                                        You new? RLM means nothing. Seahawks went from 6.5 to 5.5 Still dominated
                                                        The way I look at it, RLM isn't a commitment to buy but it does raise a nice flag. It is a solid way to pare down or reorder your card on gameday.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ShogunRua
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-23-09
                                                          • 4668

                                                          #29
                                                          You say your filter is 70%. Any data to suggest 70% RLM is profitable over long term? Was this back tested? I only ask because from the research I've done, RLM hits around 50% (without your 70% filter obviously).
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Night-Tripper
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 12-14-09
                                                            • 3205

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by trendon
                                                            The way I look at it, RLM isn't a commitment to buy but it does raise a nice flag. It is a solid way to pare down or reorder your card on gameday.
                                                            Exactly! It's a tool, not a system... a variable that a gambler can give a weighted value to or ignore altogether... it's up to them.

                                                            I post the info because it only takes a few minutes to create a thread... and if I've already spent the time sorting through the lines/percentages for myself, I figure someone (maybe only one individual) might find it beneficial.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Eddy Munny
                                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                                              • 08-13-13
                                                              • 15747

                                                              #31
                                                              Does the FSU/Clemson game qualify? I haven't followed the line movement all week but I noticed it crept up to Noles -3.5 despite the public siding heavily with Clemson.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Night-Tripper
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 12-14-09
                                                                • 3205

                                                                #32
                                                                Originally posted by Eddy Munny
                                                                Does the FSU/Clemson game qualify? I haven't followed the line movement all week but I noticed it crept up to Noles -3.5 despite the public siding heavily with Clemson.
                                                                Nah... that game is not even in the same universe as RLM. The latest update I provided should remain unchanged. GT is qualifying by a thread and could drop off at any time... but other than that one game, there shouldn't be any further changes.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Eddy Munny
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 08-13-13
                                                                  • 15747

                                                                  #33
                                                                  What disqualifies FSU/Clemson?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Jago2008
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 05-18-11
                                                                    • 3047

                                                                    #34
                                                                    I've seen Night-Trippers posts over the years and there's no question this guy invests time and research into his posts, one should pay attention to RLM. If you don't you're short ending yourself in approach, some things you cannot cap, it's always important to pay attention to smart money regardless of your lean.

                                                                    Just take a look at the LSU/Florida matchup last week, over 65% of the bets were coming in on Florida +7.5 and yet the line moved to +9, way past a key number before kickoff - Florida ended up losing by 11.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • Night-Tripper
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 12-14-09
                                                                      • 3205

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Eddy Munny
                                                                      What disqualifies FSU/Clemson?
                                                                      For starters, neither side has at least 70% of the action.
                                                                      Comment
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