Man I am thinking ECU under 56.5..... My bookie bases everything off score and odds lines. The o/u started out at 54 and is now up to 56.5..... I went back and did some digging with football over/ unders and 80 % of the time when a over/under moves by 2.5 or greater......the winner is opposite of the line movement.... Go track all the plays from last week on scores and odds.... It's crazy..... Or am I???? I am looking for some insight not telling anyone what to do.... Just telling it like I see if, however it is not 100% but definitely around 80 %..... Any thoughts???
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awesome start buddy, looking forward to seeing your selections this week. keep up the good work!Comment -
I have to say, I don't believe that there is a thing as a trend in capping that is 80% reliable, at least not over a proper sample size and as a relative -110 juice proposition. I cannot say that I've put any time into looking at this actual trend that you cite, but I am viscerally skeptical of any trend like that. My model has this in the low 60s, which is the most important thing for me. BOL whatever you decide.Comment -
Hey biff, what's your max youd go on that Kentucky over? I'm only seeing 58 now, assuming you didn't already have a bet on it, would you even play it at current #?Comment -
Think i'm going to pass on NFL game and just watch. Did play Reds -1 RL (-105). BOL tonight fellas.Comment -
Good luck I'm on ECU TT over 38Comment -
I like Irish in that game. BK finally gets the W against them. Sparty unders should be solid all seasonwith a great defense and miserable offense. Hoping they go to one of the freshman QB's because neither Maxwell or Cook have any real potential especially MaxwellComment -
adding
2* Ball State -7'
1* South Florida +23
1* Buffalo/Baylor over 68
CFB Week Two updated card
2* Florida -3 (-115)
2* Western Kentucky/Tennessee over 55'
2* South Carolina +3 (+100)
2* Ball State -7'
1* Florida Atlantic/East Carolina over 54' (-105)
1* South Florida +23
1* Buffalo/Baylor over 68Comment -
Hmmm. Well, I definitely don't like to hear that you like ND given that you know your Michigan teams. I don't see this being Hoke's first home loss. That said, maybe the under is the way to play it. I've seen some smart people say that they think that ND held a lot back last week.Comment -
on ball st as well.. my bro-in-law tex fam says lay the 7 with the horns, if you remember they usually on point with tex.. not as thrilled about it as they are just cause byu perception has to be in the shitter and playing in provo no cakewalk but gotta trust the fam!!
would love to hear your numbers for idaho/wyo and duke/mem whenever you get a chance..Comment -
1* Florida Atlantic/East Carolina over 54' (-105) - LOSER
adding
1* UCF -24' (-105)
CFB Week Two updated card
2* Florida -3 (-115)
2* Western Kentucky/Tennessee over 55'
2* South Carolina +3 (+100)
2* Ball State -7'
1* Florida Atlantic/East Carolina over 54' (-105) - LOSER
1* UCF -24' (-105)
1* South Florida +23
1* Buffalo/Baylor over 68Comment -
I took Texas in my pools, not sure yet if i'm playing them but definitely agree that Horns are the side.
Have not capped either of those games yet but should have time to get to Memphis/Duke around lunch. Pretty sure model will like over there. Idaho/Wyoming will take me longer as I haven't done much prep for those teams yet, but will get you thoughts on that tonight at worst.
Played 6 am hoops today. Was supposed to be 5 on 5, instead turned into 4 on 4 with me guarding some 6'7" kid in his mid-20s who played briefly at Akron. I was clutching my chest by 6:45. Woof. Shot well, though, per usual.Comment -
If the line holds like it is now, the Memphis/Duke game will GO UnDER. You can fade me if you would like, but I am the one that called the under in the ECU game last night! Everybody thought I was crazy..... But a Winner is A winner.....Comment -
dont know who the fuk you are, not sure what makes you think you have a crystal ball, i dont fade anyone any more than i tail some clown, i didnt touch the gm last night as i was busy posting winners in my nfl thread but im really proud of you for getting 1 right, i can tell by your need to announce it it prob doesnt happen real often so congrats.. . now piss off kid...Comment -
Wow, seriously... The post of insight pissed you off? Lol..... Glad you posted winners! I did too!Comment -
Hey, great call last night on FAU/ECU. You know, it occurs to me that your angle (fading any total where move is >= 2.5) is going to put you opposite RAS almost every time [he was on ECU over last night and is on Tennessee over, Duke over, among others]. I have heard people say that they blindly fade RAS after the line movement and do well [the key being getting the best number right before kickoff]. Personally, I have never checked it out, but it seems a potentially viable strategy. It's not going to be 80% reliable (per your initial post) but let's face it - 80% reliable on -110 plays is a pipe dream anyway. I'd be very interested to see you track the results of that strategy over time.
Personally, I'm more comfortable using my models and trying to get the best line early (i was pleased to book Vols over, ECU over before RAS released). However, I cannot say that your method will not work. My bottom-line is that I'm simply skeptical that fading RAS after a >= 2.5 point move on a total is going to be a profitable long-term strategy. That guy makes a lot of money selling his picks and 2.5 points on a CFB total isn't even a FG. BOL as you look closer at this strategy!Comment -
Thx Biff..... I never said I was right, I I believe I asked you your thoughts yesterday. It seems like you know what you are doing that is exactly why I asked your thoughts!
The reason why I say that it looks to be a pretty good thing to track is BC of last weeks results of the system. How I got the system was from a well respected capper in the industry. His forte was over/unders. I still have the email where he taught me how to read the lines....based on my tracking, it is very successful. You are right probably not as high as 80%.
All and all, I was just trying to be helpful. Sorry to post in your thread, best of luck to you the rest of the year!Comment -
Bank: model has Duke/Memphis in the mid-60s. gonna probably book that one as soon as i get some time to take a closer look.Comment -
adding
2* Duke/Memphis over 54 (-104)
that probably does it for the daytime (unless i add Sparty TT under 33, which is a strong possibility).
CFB Week Two updated card
2* Florida -3 (-115)
2* Western Kentucky/Tennessee over 55'
2* Ball State -7'
2* South Carolina +3 (+100)
2* Duke/Memphis over 54 (-104)
1* Florida Atlantic/East Carolina over 54' (-105) - LOSER
1* UCF -24' (-105)
1* South Florida +23
1* Buffalo/Baylor over 68Comment -
Bank, I end up with Duke something like 36-31/37-30.Comment -
Not a big trend player in CFB and model loves Duke/Memphis over, but did notice this:
Memphis L12 nonconference games: 9-3 over
Duke L13 nonconference games: 10-3 overComment -
I like it, here's to another great weekend.Comment -
Cash UCF
CFB Week Two updated card
2* Florida -3 (-115)
2* Western Kentucky/Tennessee over 55'
2* Ball State -7'
2* South Carolina +3 (+100)
2* Duke/Memphis over 54 (-104)
1* Florida Atlantic/East Carolina over 54' (-105) - LOSER
1* UCF -24' (-105) - WINNER
1* South Florida +23
1* Buffalo/Baylor over 68Comment -
I was surprised that it was this much over the total, but i'm not gonna argue. Thanks for getting me off my ass on that one. I knew it was promising, just needed to spend some time on it.
Thinking about adding Horns as my night game. Also been eying UM all week and will probably play them 1u. Bottom-line: Brady Hoke hasn't lost at home in 2 seasons, and i don't think that Tommy Rees is the guy who changes that.Comment -
adding
2* Texas -7 (-120)
CFB Week Two updated card
2* Florida -3 (-115)
2* Western Kentucky/Tennessee over 55'
2* Ball State -7'
2* South Carolina +3 (+100)
2* Duke/Memphis over 54 (-104)
2* Texas -7 (-120)
1* Florida Atlantic/East Carolina over 54' (-105) - LOSER
1* UCF -24' (-105) - WINNER
1* South Florida +23
1* Buffalo/Baylor over 68Comment
