Couldn't find any great trends while looking into this one except the last 3 games WMU has been under the total and 5 out of the last 6 for Ball St. have also gone under the total. Was hoping someone could give me a weather report or any thoughts on the line. I'm not much of a totals person.
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I'm looking for some input on this matchup myself cougerbait.I admittedly have been some shit on these MAC games this year.
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this year
Western Michigan is 2-3 ATS away
Ball State is 3-1 ATS at home
Western o/u is 6 and 4
Ball is 4 and 6
overall
Western is 5-5 ATS
Ball 8-2
the only 2 Ball didn't cover were when the spreads were -18 and -27 but was within 5 of covering both
last year
western PPG 29.5 allowing 30.3
Ball 31.2 allowing 29.7
based on this alone, roughly the expected score would be about 27 to 31 Ball, the actual score was 23-27 Ball
this year
Western PPG 29.5 allowing 23.4
Ball 35.9 allowing 16.4
so if we follow the same rough estimate the score would end up being about 23-30 Ball winning
keep in mind this is my guess based on averaging points scored and points allowed
Western was scoring less points per game than it was allowing on average and Ball was scoring more than allowing by a small amount. This year both teams have improved numbers scoring more and allowing less. Also it should be noted that Western allowed more thn they scored last year but this year they score more than they allow. But Ball has also improved alot on defense alloing half as many points as last year. They've both improved PPG by about 5 from last year. Western has held opponents to 7 less points than last year, and Ball has held teams to about 14 less.
based on this it looks like the lines pretty sharp, but Ball might have the edge being at home and playing for a perfect season. Both teams have pretty decent QBs so I am not sure who to take either although I'm leaning BallComment -
I've only seen Western michigan Twice this year that was nebraska and Illiniois they moved the ball pretty well on those guys dont think they would have trouble on ball state... Ball state can score on anybody in the MAC I'd take the OVERComment -
This line for this game is pretty sharp. The only play I can see is Over 54, but I have to do more research on this.Comment -
anybody know the 1st quarter or 1st half lines?Comment -
over 54 it isComment -
I would take the over as well but the total and side look to bo dead on.Scary game to bet on.Personally I'm staying away from tonight all together.I just don't want these crapshoots to ruin my run.GL yall.If yall can figure these Tues night games out,yall did a hell of a job.Hope yall get it!
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I think Ball St goes in conservative mode to hold on to that undefeated record...C.Mich can score...and played tough against Neb and Ill
Im on W. Michigan +11Comment -
W.Mich lost @ C.Mich by 10. Ball St defeated C.Mich @ C.Mich by 7. Looking at Ball St games, it seems like their strategy is to beat up the opposing defense in the 1st half and let the offense loose in the 2nd half. Ball St defense appear to play better at home than when they are on the road. They did a good job against N. Illinois and a decent job against Navy. On the other hand, W.Mich gave up quite a few points on the road. I lean Ball St and Over. I just hope that they don't change the game plans and play conservatively.Comment -
So you're saying it's that easy? Team needs to move up in ranking so they'll just decide to "turn it on", play harder, score more points, and blow a team out.
Problem I see here is Ball's last 3 games have been nationally televised. Lots of action on them tonight. Western's had no significant TV coverage. Why would the average Joe who has watched Ball's last 3 games 'not' take Ball tonight? These are 18 to 22 year old kids and something will eventually give. They're still Ball State and have no business cracking the top 12. I like Western +points.Comment -
Looks like I am again staying off the weeknight MAC game. There are some good points on both sides here. I just think there are some better values out there this week. GL to everyone who plays!Comment
