Let the capping begin...this line has holes in it, lets get em...
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The line is up to 4 in some places. As a UC fan Im taking UC -4. UC is peaking and UL is just on a downhill spiral right now. This team is on a roll knocking off 2 top 25 teams on NIGHT GAMES ON NATIONAL TV. I think the line should be 6.5. But the game is at UL and UC and UL are big rivals and this game is always close.Comment -
These bearcats are damn good,. fast and flat out hit u in the mouth I think Louisville gets beat all over the field. take the bearcats.
but I suck so better take the ville
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This line seems fishy to me........ Cincy is very good, and Louisville lost to Syracuse. Why is it only 4? Is there any RLM here?Comment -
is the QB for cincin still hurt or recovering from injury to this thumb? or somethingComment -
I think Pike still has a broken left arm but doesnt matter, I think Grutza is back and chazz anderson is ok. Hunter Cantwell is Drew Bledsoe dudes a statue back there good luck with that against a good Cincy pash rush and a couple of NFL prospects at CB for Cincy. Louisville has won 9 of 10 against Cincy i dont like that but I like Cincys coach,defense, and team speed... Plus Louisville got their asses kicked against syracuse
then come out the next week and score a 7 points against pitt
I think the players may 
on the coaching staff.
Last edited by teaserpleaser; 11-14-08, 12:00 PM.Comment -
Pike is still playing with the cast for the past 2 weeks. It hasnt affected his game. Grutza who is the starting QB at beggininning of the year is back but Pike is still the starter for this game. Pike is getting the start for which is a good idea IMO since this team has been performing well with him under center. The defense has been stellar the past two weeks against ranked teams. UL has had UC's numbers though in football. But, I think this will be changing in the future. I feel UC is on the rise and UL is well just plain out struggling this season. UC is playing great ball right now and UL isnt. Plain and simpl. UC is bringing alot of fans to this game since it is only about an hour and half from UL. Home field advantage is not an issue here. This place will be 50/50 with fans from both teams. If anything more UC fans since UL is playing so poorly.
UC wins this one SU and ATS.Comment -
louisville plus the points at home...yes please
louisville on a downhill spiral? yes they lost to the 'cuse, but the week before, they handled USF...hardly a downhill spiralComment -
On the under 47Comment -
Cincinnati and the Over
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louisville is like jekyl an hid when it com to @ home or on the ROAD...they are at home. look at their home games so far this year....not to mention, on national TVComment -
Under 47.5?Are you kidding me?This game will go under 37.5!!!Comment -
what makes you say/think that?
i've noticed the line has dropped down to 46 and more people are on the over. the weather people keep saying the temperature is supposed to drop and rain all night. yet it is sunny outside and like 60 something. i even went on weather dot com and typed in 40218 and looked for the area map, and all i see is a small speck of green west of us, the green to the southeast is moving that way not back this way.
I'm baffled by the line movement cause Cincy can put up points and UofL at home can put up a decent amount.
I know UofL sucks this year, and Cincy has great DB and corners,but i still think Cincy should hit 30 and UofL at least 20.Comment -
So does Jekyll perform better because he is a genius, or does Hyde do better because he is a beast? Either method could work, so I do not understand your comparison. To further exacerbate the confusion caused by your comparison, you add at home or on the road. Does that mean that they are always Jekyll at home and Hyde away,respectively; or does that apply to both previously mentioned forms, distributively? Can they be Jekyll or Hyde at home, and also Jekyll or Hyde on the road? If that were the case then that second part was completely unnecessary. Would you please shed some light on your use of metaphor in a football forum, as I am unable to comprehend it as of this moment, despite my strongest efforts.Comment -
at least jccurtis7 spelled Jekyll and Hyde correctly, too bad the rest of his post was totally useless.Comment -
I've been capping football games differently lately. Normally I break down stats and all the other garbage info that's out there. But I've found a method that's been working lately. Quite simply look at the spread and it'll tell you what to bet.
In this game Cincy is the better team overeall, however they are favored by 4 on the road to a louisville team that while they havnt been playing good lately, should not be getting four points @ home to this cincy team.
I'm on louisville because of that....keep it simple. Let's go cards!Comment -
UC leads the series against Louisville 25-21-1, but the Cardinals have won the last five meetings between the two schools and nine of the last 10. Last year's 28-24 win booted the Bearcats out of the Top 25 (fumbli
killed UC).
UC enters the game in a three-way tie for first place with West Virginia and Pittsburgh, both of which have byes this week. If the Bearcats can knock off the Cardinals, they'll assume sole possession of the conference lead with just two league games remaining.
Louisville, just two years removed from winning the Orange Bowl, has lost two games in a row, Nov. 1 at Syracuse and last Saturday at Pitt. The Cardinals have been victimized by a minus-6 turnover margin and poor special teams play.
Defensively, the Cardinals are formidable against the run, ranking seventh in the country in allowing only 91.4 yards per game.
UC running back Jacob Ramsey gained 83 yards on 18 carries last week against West Virginia and is blossoming into an impressive back. But the Bearcats' bread and butter on offense remains its passing game. As long as Ramsey and John Goebel can accrue enough yards on the ground to keep the defense honest, the UC coaching staff will be happy.
Louisville has allowed an average of only 298 yards of offense in its four losses, but opponents have scored seven times this season when the Cardinals defense was not on the field - on punt, fumble or interception returns.
If quarterback Tony Pike is on, the Bearcats could have a big day against a Louisville defense that allows 225.4 passing yards per game, although that average might be skewed a bit because teams are forced to pass more than they would like when they don't have success running the ball.
On Loo's offense, Hunter Cantwell has taken over at quarterback now that Brian Brohm is finally gone. Cantwell has passed for an average of 193.7 yards per game with 13 touchdowns, but he also has been intercepted 11 times.
UC did an excellent job against the run last Saturday, becoming the first team since 2001 to limit the Mountaineers to fewer than 100 yards rushing. For the season, the Bearcats are allowing an average of 111.1 rushing yards per game.
The Bearcats gave up 13 points in just over a minute after holding WVU to only a touchdown through the first three-plus quarters. The Bearcats let a 13-point lead get away in the final two minutes of regulation but won 26-23 in overtime when Pike hit Kazeem Alli for a 2-yard score.
Tony Pike ran for a touchdown and threw for another in overtime to lift the Bearcats over WVU. The effort was a gritty one from Pike, who completed 16-of-30 tosses for 178 yards. It was Pike's third straight start and his first complete game since returning from a broken arm (non-throwing arm) that required a plate and six screws. He is one of four quarterbacks that have played this season for Cincinnati and he has started because Dustin Grutza still isn't fully recovered from a broken leg. With Grutza being listed as questionable, Pike will most likely get the nod under center once again and that certainly isn't a bad thing considering he has thrown for 1,229 yards, with 10 touchdowns and just three picks this season. There's no need to speed him up with Pike playing successfully (second in the league in pass efficiency behind USF's Matt Grothe).
Cantwell's not nearly as mobile as West Virginia's Patrick White or South Florida's Matt Grothe, the past two quarterbacks the UC defense has faced. Because Cantwell likes to stay in the pocket, the players on the Bearcats' defensive line are eager to unleash the full force of their pass rush, knowing they don't have to worry about him getting outside the pocket and running for big gains. The Bearcats start 10 seniors on defense.
The Cardinals have had some injuries and their talent depth isn't what it was. Kragthorpe has attempted to manufacture a different type of program at Louisville, dismissing scores of players for various disciplinary infractions. Twenty underclassmen -- a full recruiting class -- left the team between the spring of 2007 and the start of camp this year for varying reasons.
This year's team has little depth or margin for error. It's no coincidence that the Cardinals' best game came when star receiver Scott Long was finally fully healthy. He caught two touchdown passes against South Florida after returning from a broken foot. His ability to stretch the field made things easier on everybody, especially quarterback Hunter Cantwell. A couple days later, Long tore his ACL in practice and was lost for the season. Louisville's passing game struggled in subsequent losses to Syracuse and Pittsburgh.
Losing receiver Scott Long to a torn ACL hurts and as big as 6’8” Josh Chichester is, he's really not putting up the numbers you would think someone with that body would. On the running side, Louisville has redshirt freshman Victor Anderson racking up big yards. They also have a bruising fullback/runner in Brock Bolen who has given a number of teams and defensive lineman headaches. As much as you think of Louisville as a passing team, I think the key here is to stop the run. Keeping Noel Devine and Pat White from big yards last week on the ground was crucial as White had to heave the ball 38 times.
The Cardinals are coming off one of their worst offensive performances of the season, as they managed just 299 total yards and turned the ball over five times in a 41-7 loss at Pittsburgh.
The defense was responsible for just three touchdowns surrendered and that was pretty good considering the Cardinals' offensive turnovers. The unit limited Pittsburgh to just 320 total yards, including only 90 on the ground.
Hunter Cantwell's slow descent into sub-mediocrity raced forward in what was undeniably his worst half of the season. Benching Cantwell for Matt Simms, however understandable from Coach Kragthorpe's perspective, just illuminated the senior's waning play and his inability to provide leadership on the field. Just like Syracuse, Hunter recovered somewhat in the second half to resurrect some semblance of competitiveness only to watch it crumble under the weight of a failed first-down conversion and defensive foibles. 15 of 28 for 164 yards is not inspirational this day and age in the world of pinball-game yardage. Failing to hit Trent Guy speeding into the middle of the field for a sure touchdown encapsulated the frustration that has been mounting for weeks. Can't blame the receiver for that failure to connect. It was a poorly thrown ball, lost in a poorly played game.
Matt Simms, to his credit, was middling. I think he can be effective, but his delivery is halting at best -- making Andre Woodson's hitch look Marino-esque in comparison.
A week ago, after they knocked off South Florida on a Thursday night, the Bearcats looked at the next three games on their schedule and saw three teams that they never had beaten in Big East play standing between them and their first league championship.
Last week, they checked West Virginia off that list. Now they have their sights set on Louisville and that Keg of Nails they've heard so much about but never have seen.
The WV win was the second straight over a Top 25 opponent.
If this game hinges on special teams play, the Bearcats will be in good shape. While UC has some of the best special teams play in the league, Louisville has some of the worst. The Cardinals have made only three of six field goal attempts. They also rank last in the league in net punting and kickoff returns. Junior Ryan Payne has made 20 straight extra point attempts and kicked his first career field goal Oct. 25 against South Florida. UC kicker Jake Rogers' school-record string of 13 straight field goals came to an end last week. UC kick returner Mardy Gilyard, already with two touchdowns to his credit this year, poses a threat every time he touches the ball.
UC leads the league in four special teams categories - kickoff returns, kickoff coverage, net punting and field goal percentage.
November 12, 2008
Dustin Grutza was moving well in practice Tuesday and should be able to serve as the backup to quarterback Tony Pike Friday night, assuming Grutza receives medical clearance today.
"He should be able to go," Kelly said. "He's still not 100 percent. I would say that he's probably 90 percent, but right now he looks pretty good."
Grutza, UC's starter at the beginning of the season, has not played since he broke his right leg on Sept. 6 at Oklahoma.
Posted by BKoch at 11/12/2008 3:14 PM EST on Cincinnati.com
I’m starting to get calls from the media in Knoxville about Brian Kelly. I’ve heard from two radio stations who want me on the air to ask if Kelly will be the next Tennessee coach and two newspaper reporters looking for background on Kelly.
……Look, Kelly is a very smart man. He’s not going to come out and declare that he’s not interested in any particular job. He knows enough to keep his options open, to keep people guessing so they don’t know what he might do. Last year, you might recall, the speculation was about Michigan. And yes, there were reports that he was actually in Ann Arbor interviewing for the job. That was never true.
But after the dust settled, he had a new contract and a commitment from UC to build him an indoor practice bubble and two new practice fields.
So be careful which rumors you believe. I can tell you this, when I know something and I have the source to back it up, I’ll write it, just like I did with Dantonio. But right now, I’m relatively certain that Tennessee is the last thing on Kelly’s mind.
The one thing that could work against Louisville in this one is that its being played on a Friday.
Louisville's made a name for themselves by playing on TV any night anyone shows up with a camera. Thing is, the Kentucky state high school playoffs are underway and a number of Louisville area teams will be teeing it up on this same night.
No doubt you'll see a decent crowd at Papa John's Cardinal Stadium, but it won't be what it might've been if Louisville was ranked and playing on a Saturday.
Drizzle or showers in the forecast and temperatures dipping into the 40s
THE COACHES
Brian Kelly, the 2007 BIG EAST Coach of the Year, is in his second full season at the helm of the Cincinnati football program with
a 18-5 record and an 18-year career mark of 155-56-2.
STEVE KRAGTHORPE is 11-10 in his second season as Louisville’s head coach. He is 40-31 overall in six seasons as a head coach.
UC is in the last part of its toughest stretch of the season, playing four games in 21 days with three coming on the road.
Four UC players, OG Trevor Canfield, P Kevin Huber, CB Mike Mickens, and CB DeAngelo Smith, have been invited the
2009 Under Armour Senior Bowl.
UC is the 16th school to send four or more players to the game since 2005, joining some of the best programs in the country (Ohio State, Oklahoma, LSU, Florida).
It is understandable that many University of Louisville football fans are upset and angry about the way the season is going. The outlook for the anything better than three more losses is bleak. This dismal outlook is painful.
Deterred briefly by a surprising win over South Florida, numerous fans have resumed calling for Steve Kragthorpe’s removal after the two most recent losses. In fact, if some noisy malcontents had their way, Kragthorpe would be gone, jerked out of practice in front of the players, before the next game.
………..a few of the more vociferous people are discouraging other U of L fans from attending this Friday’s game with Cincinnati. They want to send a “message” to the athletic administration, as if (AD) Jurich were not acutely aware of the challenges.
From Loo’s school paper:
…..But does the fact that it’s Cincinnati add any intrigue to this match-up? Does anyone really care that the Keg of Nails is on the line?
My first thought is no. No one will tell you this rivalry means more to them than the Governor’s Cup (vs KY).
When trying to determine a list of teams that I love to see lose, Cincinnati doesn’t make the cut. I haven’t felt the same passion in this rivalry as I’ve felt in others with Kentucky, Southern Mississippi or West Virginia.
….Right now, this rivalry doesn’t receive a lot of press and is considered a “minor” rival for both schools.
Looville
………………………….......... .'08.……krag era
in Nov. ………………..........0-2 ….1-4
on Fridays ……………….....1-1 …..1-3
committing more TO …...0-4 …..0-9
outrushed by opponent .0-2 …..1-7
outrushing opponent …..5-2 ……10-3
If the Cardinals are going to be successful offensively, they need to have more big plays in their
offense, and their lack of big plays is evident over the last three games. In those three contests, the
Cardinals have had just four plays over 20 yards. In the loss to Pittsburgh, Louisville managed just two
pass plays of 20 or more yards — one to Troy Pascley and another to Trent Guy. Louisville’s longest
play was a 36-yard pass from Hunter Cantwell to Troy Pascley for a touchdown versus Syracuse.
Against South Florida, the Cardinals had a 69-yard pass from Cantwell to Scott Long. Prior to those
three games, Louisville had 26 plays of 20 or more yards.
Turnovers and lack of offensive production are obvious in Louisville’s four losses this season. The
Cardinals have turned the ball over 15 times (eight interceptions and seven fumbles) in their four
losses. But also telling is the fact that Louisville is averaging just 12.8 points per game and 340.8
yards of total offense. Louisville has scored 25 of fewer points in five of their nine games, but The Cardinals are averaging 29.7 points per game at home and 409.2 yards of total offense.
Louisville’s magic number is 24. Under head coach Steve Kragthorpe, the Cardinals are 11-4 when
scoring 24 or more points. When scoring fewer than 24 points, Louisville is only 0-6.
After recording a season-best five sacks in a win over 14th-ranked South Florida, the Cardinals
haven’t recorded a sack in the last two games, which have both resulted in losses. Louisville
ranks 82nd in the nation in sacks per game.
The Cardinals have been pretty successful at Papa John’s Cardinals Stadium over the last six
seasons. Louisville is an impressive 30-5 at home since 2003 and are 8-4 under head coach
Steve Kragthorpe.
Since 2007, the Cardinals are just 4-5 when failing to total more than 400 yards of total offense in a game.
Louisville has been held to less than 400 yards of total offense for the last five games and are only
averaging 378.22yards of total offense for the season.
OK, enuff already. Everything outside of Loo's past home trends and series recent history points to a UC W. If UC stops LOO's run... an easy UC cover. Why the low ope line on game, tho?
Hard to take LOO with recent struggles, but is UC spent with recent sked and win ov WV?
Better games Sat...GL
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give me Cincinnati[quote=jjgold;5683305]I win again like usual
[/quote]
[quote=Whippit;7921056]miami won't lose a single eastern conference game through end of season[/quote]Comment -
its been working great so far!!!Comment -
tell me something else...when people cap games looking at stats whats most peoples winning percentages????Comment -
Louisville ML +155Comment -
don't worry about it doubled- guy's a dovche. moving on.Comment -
again, this is just like the Kent St vs Temple game. money is on Cincy, yet the line is dropping?? Cincy a top 25 team, playing a bottom tiered team in the conference. And the line drops to Cincy -3.5.
i'll ask like i did earlier in the week. why would the books drop the line on a top 25 team that has the BCS bid locked up with a win tonight????Comment -
Cincy -3.5 Over 46.5.....Comment -
Cincy -3 -110 take that all dayComment -
very tough game
i see nothing wrong with either sideComment -
Good stuff bearmz, thanks for that post.Comment -
UC - 3 1/2
UC 1st qtr Money Line -140
1st half Ciny Team Total over 13 1/2 ??? Are they stoned this line is way to low.
GL ALLComment -
i'd take Louisville, just because the line is way off.
Look at other top 25 teams playing on the road.......
North Carolina -3 @ Maryland.....Maryland is not a lot better then Louisville, but they don't give up.
Ohio St -9.5 @ Illinois........
Boise St -36.5 @ Idaho
Missouri -28 @ Iowa St
USC -23 @ Stanford
Ok St -17 @ Colorado
Utah -30 @ SDSU
and Cincy opened at -4 and now it's -3.5?? Doesn't make any sense........Comment -
Some good reasoning here.
I went ML with LOUISVILLE +145
and also bet on the OVER 46.5Comment -
Im thinking over as well although 80% chance of rain tonightComment
