Hougigo's boxing/MMA picks

**hougigo** · 07-12-12, 11:48 PM

Wow.... I don't know if I'm seeing this right, but the odds I'm seeing for Glen Johnson vs Fonfara tomorrow have him at only -120?!?
Wow, can't wait till they're released if it's true.... because I'm going to pound it so hard if it's true.

**AdamB** · 07-13-12, 11:12 AM

Ended up pulling the trigger on Haye by Decision, caught better odds also - 13/8. Here's hoping.

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 11:19 AM

Originally posted by AdamB

Ended up pulling the trigger on Haye by Decision, caught better odds also - 13/8. Here's hoping.

Good luck to you man. I think that's likely to happen.
Chisora doesn't do well on the cards in big fights, I think Chisora can take Haye's power and I think Haye's mobility (given he doesn't have a toe ache) will give him the edge of Chisora.
BOL to you mate

**Sato** · 07-13-12, 11:23 AM

What about Mundine-McKart, Broner-Escobedo?

Broner and Mundine are the clear favorites here.

**DublinMeUp** · 07-13-12, 11:25 AM

Originally posted by hougigo

Wow.... I don't know if I'm seeing this right, but the odds I'm seeing for Glen Johnson vs Fonfara tomorrow have him at only -120?!?
Wow, can't wait till they're released if it's true.... because I'm going to pound it so hard if it's true.

-115 on bet365 right now

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 11:38 AM

Originally posted by DublinMeUp

-115 on bet365 right now

WHAT!?
Oh man.... wow.
Johnson should win this handily. My only concern is they're fighting in UIC in Chicago and that's Fonfara's homecourt... so there's always the worry of a decision going the wrong way.
Fonfara has never gone a full 10 either while also never going against a fighter of Johnson's caliber.
I know Johnson is over 40, but this dude has fought nothing but top tier fighters since 2009. I'm counting Mack because he was giving Cloud the business before he was KO'd.
It's so incredibly hard to not take Johnson.
I'm wondering why it's so low.... I don't know crap about line movement or anything... but that has got me wondering. Maybe they're holding his age accountable.
I'm not putting down anything yet.... but I'm loving Johnson in this. I'm going to scour the internet for reasons as to why.

Points on maybe why it's so low:
Starting to think it's because of the Bute match in comparison to his Froch match. He was sluggish compared to then, didn't look as impressive and could be a reason why.
Also, Fonfara is on a streak of KO's and fighting in UIC making him the hometown favorite.
Johnson is on a losing streak though in comparison.
Johnson is also moving back up to LHW against a tall guy.

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by Sato

What about Mundine-McKart, Broner-Escobedo?

Broner and Mundine are the clear favorites here.

IMO, looking right off the bat... Mundine should cover the over. The odds there are still high, but not as high as Mundine... jeezy.
This isn't a fight that excites me very much though.
As for Broner vs Escobedo.... that isn't until next week right?
That's just what I'm feeling right now. I'll watch some more tape to make me feel more confident

**Vaughany** · 07-13-12, 11:51 AM

THe Johnson fight is a 10 rounder

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 11:57 AM

Originally posted by Vaughany

THe Johnson fight is a 10 rounder

And so it is.
Well, I still have time to re-evaluate the fight.
I'm starting to see why it's so close. IMO, I blinded myself with love for Johnson... but I can see how Fonfara's height, youth, jab and activity could make things close.
Well, I'm hanging on Johnson's nuts right now, but I'll be sitting on this one until a lil while before the bell rings.

**AdamB** · 07-13-12, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

And so it is.
Well, I still have time to re-evaluate the fight.
I'm starting to see why it's so close. IMO, I blinded myself with love for Johnson... but I can see how Fonfara's height, youth, jab and activity could make things close.
Well, I'm hanging on Johnson's nuts right now, but I'll be sitting on this one until a lil while before the bell rings.

I dunno if you're mostly into the pros, but have you looked into olympic picks? Pinnacle have got lines up for Gold medalists - Lomachenko at +100 caught my eye. Also need to look more closely into Anthony Joshua and the other SHWs, heard very good things about him and he's sitting at +260 right now.

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by AdamB

I dunno if you're mostly into the pros, but have you looked into olympic picks? Pinnacle have got lines up for Gold medalists - Lomachenko at +100 caught my eye. Also need to look more closely into Anthony Joshua and the other SHWs, heard very good things about him and he's sitting at +260 right now.

Lomachenko at +100?
Intersting.... although I think there's a cuban this year that's supposed to really challenge him.
IMO, i'm not too into amateur boxing right now because I think the scoring system is a joke and is flawed so badly that I don't even bother. Amateur style's kind of piss me off sometimes too.
Lomachenko at +100 though..... wow that's really good for somebody who's favorite to win.
I don't think Heritage has it up, but that's worth looking into IMO.
I just heard that there's a cuban fighter that's supposed to be challenging him for it.... don't know his name though.
I think it's Yasniel Toledo.... I think.

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 12:42 PM

Also... I'm starting to warm up to johnson..... I know he looked really Sluggish against Bute.... but Fonfara is no Bute.

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 07-13-12, 02:37 PM

Haye/Chisora -105 and Khan/Garcia +105 both to go to decision

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 02:51 PM

Originally posted by THE_LOCKSMITH

Haye/Chisora -105 and Khan/Garcia +105 both to go to decision

Both are looking like that IMO.
Haye more so than Garcia, but I think he can belt it out.
I mainly choose O/U because I don't have those props

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 04:49 PM

Something i'm going to write before all my picks. I'm just a normal person writing his opinion on what I think is going to happen and why. It's up to you to take my opinion and do with it as you will. I may be wrong as hell or I may happen to be right. If you think I'm wrong, post here and say why! Argument's are great and it's always better to see two sides to every coin.
For tonight... I'm saying **** it.
Johnson is better than Fonfara and should win by either UD or KO.
If he loses at this point in his career... he's done. Fanfara's on a hot streak and doing good, but Johnson is a huge leap in competition with a wealth of experience that's still performing very well.

I'm going in, and I hope this hits.
1. Because I want a W
2. Because I want the road warrior to live on

Johnson over Fonfara @ -155

Let's hope that this hits....

Boxing/MMA record 8-5-0

**THE_LOCKSMITH** · 07-13-12, 04:51 PM

i'm betting the overs in rounds and fights to go to decision more of late, keeps my plays out of the hands of the judges like the pacman/Bradley fight

**AraiWa** · 07-13-12, 06:22 PM

Johnson vs. Fonfara

Johnson is much more experienced but the fact that Fonfara's promoter 8 Count Productions made the fight says something about their boxer and how he's progressed. However, they've matched him soft and unless Johnson completely unravels, I think he still has enough left to get the job done.

Johnson to win @-150

I've also got the over on the fight @-300 in a parlay with Billy Dib and the over 9 1/2 on the Mundine/McKart fight.

Dib was -800 which is way to steep to bet straight up. But I know his team, know how the fight was made with Rodriguez, and why, and it was an easy pick. Dib was not going to be fed someone who can beat him, fighting at home, while he waits to get a big money fight in Vegas or elsewhere.

Still thinking about Haye-Chisora. Although I like Haye via decision, something tells me that one of them, probably Chisora, might lose his cool during the fight and do something to be disqualified so I'm trying to get a handle on the possibilities.

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 06:51 PM

Originally posted by AraiWa

Johnson vs. Fonfara

Johnson is much more experienced but the fact that Fonfara's promoter 8 Count Productions made the fight says something about their boxer and how he's progressed. However, they've matched him soft and unless Johnson completely unravels, I think he still has enough left to get the job done.

Johnson to win @-150

I've also got the over on the fight @-300 in a parlay with Billy Dib and the over 9 1/2 on the Mundine/McKart fight.

Dib was -800 which is way to steep to bet straight up. But I know his team, know how the fight was made with Rodriguez, and why, and it was an easy pick. Dib was not going to be fed someone who can beat him, fighting at home, while he waits to get a big money fight in Vegas or elsewhere.

Still thinking about Haye-Chisora. Although I like Haye via decision, something tells me that one of them, probably Chisora, might lose his cool during the fight and do something to be disqualified so I'm trying to get a handle on the possibilities.

I agree with the Johnson sentiment. He's grown a lot since his last KO loss, but his competition can't hold a candle to an old Johnson. His confidence is at a sky high right now though.
Dib won a hard fought earlier (didn't watch but looking at the reports) and was looking at the over for the Mundine fight too. I didn't have the dib fight so didn't know the odds at my book.

I don't think Chisora will do anything during, but beforehand and after is completely possible. I like the over in that fight though

**Mercersux** · 07-13-12, 07:56 PM

I'm definitely a bit confused here. Just at a glance I'd take Johnson right away, but then i check with a boxing capper who i have alot of trust in and he's calling for Fonfara/johnson under play. Now I'll admit I'm not very familiar with Fonfara but i hear this kid is very much an offensive fights so he'll bring the fight to Johnson. So im thinking that with Johnson's constant pressure and Fonfara's big time offensive attack, maybe under 7 1/2 or ITD. Now the thing i found funny about the o/u is that although it's a ten rnd fight, it's set @ 7 1/2 and not 9 1/2, so does the line setters expect a very offensive oriented fight? thoughts? btw here's the weigh in video if you were interested.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPVtYivatKg&feature=autoplay&list=FLBcFoQPB7137UekX118Db0A&playnext=1

**Mercersux** · 07-13-12, 08:16 PM

I think im going to skip this one and just enjoy it but something to note the Johnson line jumped and the the Fonfara line by ITD line dropped quite a bit.

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 08:26 PM

Originally posted by Mercersux

I'm definitely a bit confused here. Just at a glance I'd take Johnson right away, but then i check with a boxing capper who i have alot of trust in and he's calling for Fonfara/johnson under play. Now I'll admit I'm not very familiar with Fonfara but i hear this kid is very much an offensive fights so he'll bring the fight to Johnson. So im thinking that with Johnson's constant pressure and Fonfara's big time offensive attack, maybe under 7 1/2 or ITD. Now the thing i found funny about the o/u is that although it's a ten rnd fight, it's set @ 7 1/2 and not 9 1/2, so does the line setters expect a very offensive oriented fight? thoughts? btw here's the weigh in video if you were interested.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPVtY...b0A&playnext=1

Fonfara... even though he's running on a streak of KOs (7 I think) it was against sub par competition. There is no way in hell he'd KO johnson.... Johnson went in with stronger and better competition and came out in 12. If it's under, it'll be Johnson by KO. Fonfara... his last KO loss showed if you can get inside of him and land... he could be out. Now, he's supposed to have improved over his last few fights, but none of them are on Johnson's level... hell even an old Johnson is above them.
If it's under... then it's a Johnson KO.

Also remember, I'm not a capper... just a guy throwing out his opinions!
I know you decided to sit and watch, but BOL on your future boxing matches friend

**AraiWa** · 07-13-12, 09:33 PM

Johnson could definitely KO this guy but I believe Fonfara is young enough, fit enough, and this is his time on his promoter's show so he should be able to last and go 8. If he loses a decision to Johnson, it is an accomplishment and a god fight on his ledger, paving the way for bigger money fights down the line. If you think of it from his promoter's standpoint I think it stands to reason they're not taking this fight because they're unsure of Fonfara's abilities.

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 10:08 PM

Too bad there was no lines (at least that I could find) on Castillo... I would have went with him

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 10:37 PM

I don't like this. Fonfara is throwing more and doing a lot of combinations.... but they're all either being blocked or missing... I don't know what the hell they're counting Fonfara landing 100+ through 6.
Fonfara could actually steal a decision because I have Johnson up through 7

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 10:54 PM

In the end.... too tired and not enough in the tank.
I can't believe he lost to Fonfara still.
99-91.... yea, Johnson didn't have a chance at a decision.

Boxing/MMA record 8-6-0

**AraiWa** · 07-13-12, 10:56 PM

Damnit, I thought there was a reason why they put in Fonfara with Johnson and that it was a perfect match. I won the over but lost on Johnson straight up. Pisses me off.

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 11:03 PM

Originally posted by AraiWa

Damnit, I thought there was a reason why they put in Fonfara with Johnson and that it was a perfect match. I won the over but lost on Johnson straight up. Pisses me off.

Two things I'm factoring in from now on:
1. Age (weighted more than previously)
2. Hometown fights

I thought that while Johnson was older and wouldn't have the legs, his skills were still far better than Fonfara's. Johnson tanked and couldn't do much unless Fonfara came to him. All three picks I made with old fighters fell short.
Next, unless I think the other guy is going to KO the challenger in their hometown, I'm going to go with the hometown boy. 99-91.... GTFO here with that b.s. Fonfara won, but that's a retarded score.
I said earlier I was worried about a hometown decision.... while Fonfara rightfully won... eff those score cards.... like seriously

**Thurgood** · 07-13-12, 11:37 PM

Anyone know why my Fonfara win is still pending? Do they have to double-check scorecards or something?

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 11:47 PM

Originally posted by Thurgood

Anyone know why my Fonfara win is still pending? Do they have to double-check scorecards or something?

Some picks take a while to go through. I had a pick earlier today that was zapped right away after they lost, this one is still pending... give it time.

**Thurgood** · 07-13-12, 11:51 PM

Originally posted by hougigo

Some picks take a while to go through. I had a pick earlier today that was zapped right away after they lost, this one is still pending... give it time.

Lol yeah that's the complaint. They zap your money when you lose but take their time when you win lol

I'm thankful I didn't read your entire write-up on Johnson until after I placed my Fonfara bet haha My pick was based solely on line movement.

**AraiWa** · 07-13-12, 11:55 PM

BTW - all of my picks are listed on the SBR Spreadsheet. Normally I bet on boxing, MMA and Tennis - that's it.

http://araiwa.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

**hougigo** · 07-13-12, 11:59 PM

Originally posted by AraiWa

BTW - all of my picks are listed on the SBR Spreadsheet. Normally I bet on boxing, MMA and Tennis - that's it.

http://araiwa.mysbrforum.com/spreadsheet/

I tried to make a spread sheet, but I'm so damn lazy that I couldn't do it and quit halfway through. I post my record of them on here.... but I don't know how long I'll keep that up... because I'm lazy

**Mercersux** · 07-14-12, 02:38 AM

Kust got done watching FNF off my dvr. Firt off, that Castillo-Popocca fight was great. Both guys inside going for it. Great stuff. I also wish i saw that line but i don't recall it being up on 5D. Secondly, i had a hunch this might be Johnson's swan song and unfortunately i think it might be. Think i was hesistant to go on Fonfara because it was in my eyes alot closer than it actually was, and Johnson is one of my favs so tough to see him go out like he did. Looked super old, (which he is) and just completely out of gas. Father time continues his undefeated streak. Thanks for the memories "Road WARRIOR" !!! BTW, im looking at the boxing matches tomorrow, the over in the Garcia-Khan fight is just screaming @ me. thoughts ?

**Mercersux** · 07-14-12, 02:45 AM

Just read Johnson retired after the fight. Shoe in for the boxing HOF.

**hougigo** · 07-14-12, 06:52 AM

Originally posted by Mercersux

Kust got done watching FNF off my dvr. Firt off, that Castillo-Popocca fight was great. Both guys inside going for it. Great stuff. I also wish i saw that line but i don't recall it being up on 5D. Secondly, i had a hunch this might be Johnson's swan song and unfortunately i think it might be. Think i was hesistant to go on Fonfara because it was in my eyes alot closer than it actually was, and Johnson is one of my favs so tough to see him go out like he did. Looked super old, (which he is) and just completely out of gas. Father time continues his undefeated streak. Thanks for the memories "Road WARRIOR" !!! BTW, im looking at the boxing matches tomorrow, the over in the Garcia-Khan fight is just screaming @ me. thoughts ?

I'm looking at the over too. I think Garcia can survive.... he also has a good possibility of making this a competitive fight.